Dunguib 14/1 Laddies NRNB.......

Nice ramping hopefully you will be able to lay off quick now eh

and both Dunguib and Mille Chief should be 16s shots based on their recent races and form at the top level.

If you think I'm stupid enough to think a thread on here will affect the price of a horse then you are mistaken[:p].

As for the prices we will see. I think 14s will look pretty good on the day.

cruise d Im not to sure it will. The horse wont be running between now and then and there are a hell of a lot of horses about at the top of the market with much better form.
If for some reason Hurrican Fly didnt make it then you might see a lot of the Irish pilling it to this one on the day but other than that I cant see it being any shorter than 16s on the day.

You may be right but people dont always pick up on form lines until nearer the race. I can see someone doing an article on it tipping it up based on Luska Lad. Maybe a pricewise selection....

Dunguib having less races for me is a postive, he is very slight and you would expect he would go best without too many miles on the clock every season. There is so little between it and Menorah on last years supreme and Dunguib covered considerably more ground racing widest of all that day compared to Menorah's inside run. I can just see poeple looking at it and thinking the price is too big. I think people are put off because it was a good laugh to get it beat last year and people's opinion of the horse have been a little clouded.

People are put of by the fact he only just made his seasonal debut, by the fact that his trainer said they were seriously thinking about the coral cup and by the fact that whilst his Supreme form is good Menorah and Oscar Whisky have made it look good by there runs this season and you can clearly see they have improved. The same cant be said for Dunguib.

Im not saying he wont win as personally Ive yet to form a really strong opinion on this race but what I would say is I'd struggle to see this one going of much shorter on the day.

difficult one,you have his supreme form which to me gives him a similar chance as Menorah has,but then his form this season is 1 victory over Luska Lad.
my gut feeling is take the 14 nrnb,i think he will have sufficient supporters for him not to drift.

Agreed. I think Menorah and Peddler's Cross are too short and will drift. Not because their chances are less, just that they are very short.

Yesterdays Going was probably not in the horses favour....thought it jumped bettter when they started to race at a truer pace they didnt go too fast early on it made the hurdling look sketchy 3 weeks to the festival how much fitter can they get this horse is an unknown.I believe this horse has the ability to run a big race come March however i would prefer a stronger/more experienced jockey to ride ideal man would be Timmy Murphy someone who can drop him off keep him settled get him hurdling but has enough tactical awareness not to get caught out when the race really begins .....i am more than happy with the 23s i've go.Hope he has come out of yeterdays race well and it has brought him on .....bring on the Festival.....

hes a fascinating horse in this race for sure

nrnb is irrelevant he goes for this race for sure , wont be shorter on the day as he wont have another outing

He was outpaced behind Solwhit over 2 miles for goodness sake (and Medermit) at Punchestowns when only 6th behind Hurricane Fly who has improved himself, then you have Binocular, Menorah and Peddlers Cross will finish in front of him also. He was exposed regardless of him having only one run this season on the slow ground he loved last also. The horse lacks gears as shown at Punchestown.

and you need gears on the quicker Cheltenham Festival ground. It was good at Punchestown so no reeling in slow horses late on slow ground, the oppo was too good also as it will be at Cheltenham. This horse should go Coral Cup for a chance of a win at the Festival he has always been over-rated at the highest level.

I won't be fooled again!! Skipped round yesterday looked impressive and beat nothing...on hindsight, similar to last season! Stepped up to a true Grade One race and failed. End of for me. Not good enough.

Looked impressive? Didnt think so he looked laboured.

Don't forget it was only a prep run!

3 weeks before the Festival you would expect a head in chest job imo.

Like Peddler's Cross and Mille Chief?

The same could be said of Binoculars last run Eric?

I thought he looked good, judged his hurdles better, travelled strongly, quickened when asked, I don't think you can knock him too much. I just don't think he's got the class to win a true Grade One race.

Binocular's run prior to that half paced job told me they have him virtually ready.

You would have to be mad to take 14s Dunguib when you can get say 5s Hurricane Fly instead. Really what is the point of chucking your money at Dunguib.

Mug bet.

DWM he won the Grade 1 bumper. Only Binocular has won a true Grade 1 if you look at it that way.

What's the point in chucking your money at Hurricane Fly!? It's all opinion, personally I couldn't have either of them! National Hunt racing in Ireland is as poor as it's ever been, they've got nothing.

Read the form then you'll know why there is way better value in the race than 14s Dunguib. Surely after Solwhit, yes Solwhit who has no gears beat him easily on good ground, yes good ground Solwhit does not like, you can see where this project is going on fast Cheltenham ground in possibly the best Champion Hurdle field for decades.

It does seem poorer than other years but I do have
a feeling their horses will be spot on.
I would expect a big run from Dunguib or Hurricane Fly.
Fascinating race ahead....

Hurricane Fly against the 3 English horses is fascinating, Dunguib is not top class on quick ground as we have seen.

Eric I don't think the ground will be as quick as last year.
What do you think?

I think you are clutchint straws mate

I'm strongly convinced this race with be a huge anti climax! IF Binocular flies his obstacles the way he did at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle I fear we're gonna see a procession.

fk sake lad give up I'm going to wet myself here

DWM don't get into a debate with Eric. He ruins more threads than there are and is Grade 1 at talking absolute nonsense. There is only one pont of view at that is his.

Well lets wait and see!
Can't choose between Menorah - Oscar Whisky - Dunguib - Hurricane Fly.
I,ll end up backing the first 3 and if HF wins I,ll kick myself !
5,s - 14,s and 14,s.
Thats me done on this race
Good Luck..

That's it, where's my spare pants

Yesterday was a muddling race and it proved little more than the horse is still breathing.
Interesting the maiden hurdle (race immediately after the Red Mills) was run in 8 secs quicker time.
But I am still a believer in Dunguib and will be backing him, my strategy though is usually only bet on raceday and if he's around 10s then yes I've lost a bit of value but I'll know how his prep/travel etc has gone

The discussion has drifted off the point of the thread. The original poster was asking for opinions about where the price on Dunguib might head between now and the Festival and whether the 14/1 might give him a trading opportunity.

I am not sure the bookies will have taken much on Dunguib yet, so I can see them holding the price up for the next few days at least. They must be taking quite a few bets now from those who were waiting for evidence the horse was fit and well before backing and from those who are looking to cover their positions on the race now Dunguib has entered the picture more solidly.

Probably also have to assume that the dream will still be alive with quite a few of those who piled into the horse for the SN; if their hopes are re-ignited by Dunguib's prep run, there may just be enough flow of money on him to see the bookies cut the price once or twice nearer the time of the race. I would be surprised though if his SP was less than 10/1, assuming the other main contenders run.

Cheers brigust1, he does seem to get about a bit!!

brigust1 places smallish bets at big prices on horses on here then comes on making a case hoping they will come in so he can lay off to some unfortunate. When I point out these horses have little chance he does not like it as it affects his chances of getting a free bet.
No surprise he is on this thread unlikely he has ever backed anything in single figures and held the bet so small are his gonads.

Can't have Dunguib at all. He should be chasing. Hurricane Fly is best of the Irish by far.

eric why do you keep banging on about good ground? It's been pretty clear that Claisse waters for gd-soft and then if there is late rain it could be softer than that. It looks sure to be gd-sft at least and fair for all.

You only have to say once you don't think the horse has a chance rather constantly coming back like some demented no life troll! You have posted 14 times on this thread and have said nothing original from about your 3rd post.

There is nothing I admire more than a cocky know it all that's been around for 5 minutes and sees fit to put people down for their opinions without offering a sensible one back in return.

5 minutes ...lol.

Weall know the ground will be called good/soft on the first day however we also all know that it will be faster than that.

I can post as many times as I want to just accept your bet is cr@p and stop whinging.

OK I accept it my bet is cr@p, you clearly know it all. Thankyou for your wisdom.

I've often thought it was easy to just troll threads telling people how stupid their bets are without actually saying anything sensible or adding to the debate. However now I've seen how eloquently you have made your points and the solid reasoning behind all of them (that's 15 times and counting thus far), I must say I've had an epiphany. Thank you for making me realise the error of my ways.

Oh and being around for 8 months is 5 minutes in the life of bf. The people that have been around for a long time and post in a balanced way, offering reasonable opinions are the ones worthy of most respect on here. I dont count myself as one of those because I'm not a regular poster and am pretty much anonymous on the forums btw. By the same token anybody new that joins and offers good opinions is also welcome and earns respect quickly. But people that come on bleeting fatuous botty water over and over again get discounted by anybody worth listening to and very quickly.

I look forward to your reply. At some point I'm sure the word mug will be used and then maybe a challenge about posting P&Ls will be offered. It'll no doubt be well thought out and more than my "whinging" tiny mind can handle. I really don't like this battle of wits we are having, it's like you have all the ammunition and I dont even have a shield.

j2010 Date Joined: 21 Sep 10
Add contact | Send message When: 20 Feb 11 10:53

nrnb is irrelevant he goes for this race for sure , wont be shorter on the day as he wont have another outing

That is a bit of a strange post IMO. He is 12s with most bookies and last time I checked you could only get 14.5 on here so getting 14s with your money back if he doesn't run seems more than sensible to me. If you were getting a shorter price maybe I'd take a differnt view but he's best priced at 14s and NRNB with Laddies, how can that possibly be a bad thing? He has also just put up a reasonable performance after a very long lay off, it's quite possible that he could come out of the race with an injury or something wrong and miss the race. The fact that a horse is aimed for any given race doesn't mean they will get there. There will no doubt be some big name horses that are forced to swerve the festival between now and the off.

As for the price not changing because he isn't gpoing to run again, no horses are likely to run again before the day and there will be plenty shorter and bigger on the day than now. When the turnover increases the prices change it's as simple as that. Horses don't need to run or show something to shorten. A bullish trainer reporting an amazing piece of work can be enough to shorten a horse by a good few points. As can a horse being heavily tipped by the right people, as I've already said their is a formline their that I believe there is every chance someone will latch on to and use as a reason to tip Dunguib. To say the price wont change because the horse can't run again to influence the price is astonishing.

I see Dunguib has drifted on here and rightly so he has the least chance of the 3 horses on the periphery along with Oscar Whisky and Mille Chief.

Mille Chief effectively beaten off levels by Celestial Halo, Celestial would need binoculars to see this years winner the race is way better than the Champion Hurdles he has taken part in. Oscar Whisky the best chance of the 3 however you dont think he wuill be beating the trainer/stable patrons horse do you? All in all these 3 dont offer a great opportunity as they are likely to be outclassed.

Dunguib is 16.5 on hrere already and likely to drift further imo.

Still I'm sure you wont mind holding onto your entire bet on Dunguib without laying off for a loss until the day you seem very confident. 

I'd hardly say he's drifted. Some people backed him in to too short a price and now he is about where he should be. He's a best price 14/1 with the bookies and by the time you have paid your commission on here you will be getting less than a point more than 14s. I fail to see your point.

I haven't been over confident in what I have said either. I've highlighted the horse as potential value and said he could be a decent arb. I didnt say I would lay off myself though did I?

My point is he has drifted. You said last time you checked he was 14.5 when I checked later he was 16.5 therefore he drifted. Your attempts to ramp him to lay your bet off on this sh1t bet onto one of your 'comrades' on here has failed.

He's now only available at 15s, there must be a gamble going on if I use your sh***y logic! You talk utter garbage mate, about 16.5 would be the right price on bf now for it now.

As I said in my first reply to you on this thread if you think I'm stupid enough to believe that what I post on here will affect the price of the horse then you are mistaken.

Surprised your 'comrades' have time for you d1psh1t.

Another excellent riposte from you there. Thanks may I have another?

No, that was it.

good to soft ground with 2 weeks to go....

''Weall know the ground will be called good/soft on the first day however we also all know that it will be faster than that.

I can post as many times as I want to just accept your bet is cr@p and stop whinging. ''

eric is a p r i c k...lol