Cheltenham Festival
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I'm no great fan of the horse and I've never backed it in my life but that looks a decent price to me right now. I know it's race yesterday was only a 3 runner muddling affair but Luska Lad is a decent yardstick and on the day I can see Dunguib being backed with people clinging on to the fact that the bare form puts it a couple of pounds ahead of Hurricane Fly. We all know it was 2l back in last years supreme but 2l to find on Menorah and still the chance that wasn't his true running mean that I'm sure people will get stuck into it on the day. I think people will discount it's Punchestowns run last year and believe that he is capable of better.
Can see it being a market mover so having a few quid on now NRNB wouldn't hurt in my book. I have backed it today because I believe it will shorten substabtially from 14s. I think the horse isn't without a chance but as a decent arb it looks solid.
Can see it being a market mover so having a few quid on now NRNB wouldn't hurt in my book. I have backed it today because I believe it will shorten substabtially from 14s. I think the horse isn't without a chance but as a decent arb it looks solid.
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Nice ramping hopefully you will be able to lay off quick now eh
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and both Dunguib and Mille Chief should be 16s shots based on their recent races and form at the top level.
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If you think I'm stupid enough to think a thread on here will affect the price of a horse then you are mistaken[:p].
As for the prices we will see. I think 14s will look pretty good on the day. |
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cruise d Im not to sure it will. The horse wont be running between now and then and there are a hell of a lot of horses about at the top of the market with much better form.
If for some reason Hurrican Fly didnt make it then you might see a lot of the Irish pilling it to this one on the day but other than that I cant see it being any shorter than 16s on the day. |
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You may be right but people dont always pick up on form lines until nearer the race. I can see someone doing an article on it tipping it up based on Luska Lad. Maybe a pricewise selection....
Dunguib having less races for me is a postive, he is very slight and you would expect he would go best without too many miles on the clock every season. There is so little between it and Menorah on last years supreme and Dunguib covered considerably more ground racing widest of all that day compared to Menorah's inside run. I can just see poeple looking at it and thinking the price is too big. I think people are put off because it was a good laugh to get it beat last year and people's opinion of the horse have been a little clouded. |
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People are put of by the fact he only just made his seasonal debut, by the fact that his trainer said they were seriously thinking about the coral cup and by the fact that whilst his Supreme form is good Menorah and Oscar Whisky have made it look good by there runs this season and you can clearly see they have improved. The same cant be said for Dunguib.
Im not saying he wont win as personally Ive yet to form a really strong opinion on this race but what I would say is I'd struggle to see this one going of much shorter on the day. |
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difficult one,you have his supreme form which to me gives him a similar chance as Menorah has,but then his form this season is 1 victory over Luska Lad.
my gut feeling is take the 14 nrnb,i think he will have sufficient supporters for him not to drift. |
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Agreed. I think Menorah and Peddler's Cross are too short and will drift. Not because their chances are less, just that they are very short.
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Yesterdays Going was probably not in the horses favour....thought it jumped bettter when they started to race at a truer pace they didnt go too fast early on it made the hurdling look sketchy 3 weeks to the festival how much fitter can they get this horse is an unknown.I believe this horse has the ability to run a big race come March however i would prefer a stronger/more experienced jockey to ride ideal man would be Timmy Murphy someone who can drop him off keep him settled get him hurdling but has enough tactical awareness not to get caught out when the race really begins .....i am more than happy with the 23s i've go.Hope he has come out of yeterdays race well and it has brought him on .....bring on the Festival.....
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hes a fascinating horse in this race for sure
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nrnb is irrelevant he goes for this race for sure , wont be shorter on the day as he wont have another outing
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He was outpaced behind Solwhit over 2 miles for goodness sake (and Medermit) at Punchestowns when only 6th behind Hurricane Fly who has improved himself, then you have Binocular, Menorah and Peddlers Cross will finish in front of him also. He was exposed regardless of him having only one run this season on the slow ground he loved last also. The horse lacks gears as shown at Punchestown.
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and you need gears on the quicker Cheltenham Festival ground. It was good at Punchestown so no reeling in slow horses late on slow ground, the oppo was too good also as it will be at Cheltenham. This horse should go Coral Cup for a chance of a win at the Festival he has always been over-rated at the highest level.
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I won't be fooled again!! Skipped round yesterday looked impressive and beat nothing...on hindsight, similar to last season! Stepped up to a true Grade One race and failed. End of for me. Not good enough.
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Looked impressive? Didnt think so he looked laboured.
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Don't forget it was only a prep run!
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3 weeks before the Festival you would expect a head in chest job imo.
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Like Peddler's Cross and Mille Chief?
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The same could be said of Binoculars last run Eric?
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I thought he looked good, judged his hurdles better, travelled strongly, quickened when asked, I don't think you can knock him too much. I just don't think he's got the class to win a true Grade One race.
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Binocular's run prior to that half paced job told me they have him virtually ready.
You would have to be mad to take 14s Dunguib when you can get say 5s Hurricane Fly instead. Really what is the point of chucking your money at Dunguib. |
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Mug bet.
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DWM he won the Grade 1 bumper. Only Binocular has won a true Grade 1 if you look at it that way.
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What's the point in chucking your money at Hurricane Fly!? It's all opinion, personally I couldn't have either of them! National Hunt racing in Ireland is as poor as it's ever been, they've got nothing.
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Read the form then you'll know why there is way better value in the race than 14s Dunguib. Surely after Solwhit, yes Solwhit who has no gears beat him easily on good ground, yes good ground Solwhit does not like, you can see where this project is going on fast Cheltenham ground in possibly the best Champion Hurdle field for decades.
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It does seem poorer than other years but I do have
a feeling their horses will be spot on. I would expect a big run from Dunguib or Hurricane Fly. Fascinating race ahead.... |
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Hurricane Fly against the 3 English horses is fascinating, Dunguib is not top class on quick ground as we have seen.
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Eric I don't think the ground will be as quick as last year.
What do you think? |
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I think you are clutchint straws mate
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I'm strongly convinced this race with be a huge anti climax! IF Binocular flies his obstacles the way he did at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle I fear we're gonna see a procession.
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fk sake lad give up I'm going to wet myself here
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DWM don't get into a debate with Eric. He ruins more threads than there are and is Grade 1 at talking absolute nonsense. There is only one pont of view at that is his.
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Well lets wait and see!
Can't choose between Menorah - Oscar Whisky - Dunguib - Hurricane Fly. I,ll end up backing the first 3 and if HF wins I,ll kick myself ! 5,s - 14,s and 14,s. Thats me done on this race Good Luck.. |
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That's it, where's my spare pants
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Yesterday was a muddling race and it proved little more than the horse is still breathing.
Interesting the maiden hurdle (race immediately after the Red Mills) was run in 8 secs quicker time. But I am still a believer in Dunguib and will be backing him, my strategy though is usually only bet on raceday and if he's around 10s then yes I've lost a bit of value but I'll know how his prep/travel etc has gone |
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The discussion has drifted off the point of the thread. The original poster was asking for opinions about where the price on Dunguib might head between now and the Festival and whether the 14/1 might give him a trading opportunity.
I am not sure the bookies will have taken much on Dunguib yet, so I can see them holding the price up for the next few days at least. They must be taking quite a few bets now from those who were waiting for evidence the horse was fit and well before backing and from those who are looking to cover their positions on the race now Dunguib has entered the picture more solidly. Probably also have to assume that the dream will still be alive with quite a few of those who piled into the horse for the SN; if their hopes are re-ignited by Dunguib's prep run, there may just be enough flow of money on him to see the bookies cut the price once or twice nearer the time of the race. I would be surprised though if his SP was less than 10/1, assuming the other main contenders run. |
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Cheers brigust1, he does seem to get about a bit!!
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brigust1 places smallish bets at big prices on horses on here then comes on making a case hoping they will come in so he can lay off to some unfortunate. When I point out these horses have little chance he does not like it as it affects his chances of getting a free bet.
No surprise he is on this thread unlikely he has ever backed anything in single figures and held the bet so small are his gonads. |
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Can't have Dunguib at all. He should be chasing. Hurricane Fly is best of the Irish by far.
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