I can't believe I'm gonna say this but I just backed Dunguib ew at 14s NRNB.

I just think it will be much shorter than 14s on the day. I've never backed the horse and I still cant believe I've done it but I've started a thread on why and can see people backing it heavily on the day.

So just to clear things up.

A supreme runner up behind a future arkle winner, who then was placed at 5 in a champion hurdle beating the previous winner and then won the champion hurdle easily the next season is a shaky favourite ???

If you are judging bino on his run at newbury against peddlers cross then you really ought to take up a different sport.

McCoy did not whip bino once at newbury and held him up.

Plus their were not many recorded bets on bino that day, a bit like gmooh who has had not had any big recorded bets against his name this season.

bothys run at newbury showed how good a performance menorah put up/ great course form. can  see hurricane fly going well about 2 out but will find nothing  /  a  place lay for me. dont rule out some late excuse from the hurricane fly camp, meaning he as to miss cheltenham.

I think Bud has hit the nail on the head with Peddlars.The great thing about this years race is that you can take a positive stance on all of those in the first half dozen in the market in some shape or form aswell as being able to detect any potential weak points in comparision with the others.Race of the festival without a doubt

^^^^

To be honest I'm still in shock myself. But if you read my thread on it I just think it is value at 14s. When I posted originally it was the first time I'd seriously considered it and then I spent the next 2 hours looking at the form again and watching the supreme and Saturday's race back and decided that it was worth a few quid from a value perspective. At least Dunguib has proved he can handle Chelts twice unlike H Fly and I believe he will be shorter on the day, thats enough for me. He jumped the last way better than GMOOH and Menorah in last years supreme and I think they were so worried about giving it a clean round of jumping last year that they cost it the race going wide the whole way around.

As I said on my thread, I'm no Dunguib fan and I've never backed the horse in my life but to me anyway it seems to be decent value at 14s ew. I can thoroughly understand why people may think I'm mad but we'll see. The top 4 in the betting other than maybe Binocular look poor value to me, hence me backing Dunguib now. I will still pick one of the main contenders to back win only on the day.

By: This user is offline. godlovesyou
Date Joined: 27 Apr 08 Add contact | Send message When: 19 Feb 11 18:31

Hurricane Fly is the worst value in the CH market. He's the one, if any, that will not know what hits him at Cheltenham. He may be capable but he has the most questions to answer imo.

missed out "a few" before the worf lengths above.

Bud......like I say, PC has absolutely no chance (or more accurately for me, about a 1 in 40 chance) of winning this year's CH. As I'm a charitable guy, I'll let you have £50 at 40/1 with me.I'll be at the meeting all of the week, in the Betfair tent Thursday and Friday. If you are there then have a word with one of the BF account managers and they'll point me out. If you aren't going you can still contact them and they will email me to ask for my permission to give you my contact details. If you'd like to take me up on my exceptional offer please do this. If I'm wrong then another couple of grand won't hurt too much; when I'm right I'll simply accept you bowing to my superior knowledge.

Isn't this becoming 'a who is likely/unlikely to win' thread. What has happened to the focus on 'value'?

Binocular would marginally be my pick to win the race, but I have been struggling to see any value in his price for most of the season. I can see a certain amount of value in KK's price on here, though I would still only have him fifth or sixth favourite for the race.

Its kind of the same/difference aka.

well.looks like you got your bet there Brownes,good luck!!

im happy enough with my opinion and if iam wrong then fair enough,but i will get no pleasure in seeing you lose a lot of money,one bet at 40 is enough.I am mightily tempted though.
End of the day we dont really need to start chucking silly money and offering silly bets just to prove a point.Lets just see what happens.

Perennial discussion I suppose, Seary. Some think the two things are essentially the same, some think they need to be separated out. At the very least though, as the original poster asked about 'worst value', there ought to be some focus on price in relation to the views people are expressing about value or it just becomes another 'I think this wins, I think this can't win' thread, imo. Nothing wrong with that type of thread, but it is not a discussion about value as such, or at least it becomes only very indirectly a discussion about value if price and some attempt to give a statistical value to a horse's chances are not considered.

If you look at Brownes Gazette's contribution, he has at least (bit tongue in cheek possibly) given a price of 40/1 at which he thinks PC should be trading in order to represent fair value. You write that Menorah is poor value. I could probably agree with that point. But you don't say at what price the horse should be trading, in your view. No disrespect, but I have heard all the arguments about why Menorah is unlikely to win the CH many times. As this is a thread about 'worst value', I was hoping to read the views of others about what price they think the different horses should be trading at in order to represent fair value. Is Menorah really a 10/1 or a 20/1 shot, or is he  so without a chance in the race he is not even worth pricing up? And if he is only, say, a 20/1 shot in your estimation, then why do you think the market has got his price so wrong currently? It is interesting to have people's views on those kind of issues, alongside opinions about who will win/won't win which are well covered already on the other CH threads.

I believe Binocular is too short in an open year and considering how it has looked so far this sason. While last year was interrupted for him and some urgent phtsio work got him spot on for the day I wonder whether they can get him so sharp this year - around 7/2 at the moment I'd take him on as I fancy one of the improvers to be better on the day.

Mischief

As has already been posted - if you seriously have a view that PC is so far wrong in the current market I presume you've supported the view with an aggressive lay strategy..

Binocular represents the worse value in the Champion Hurdle. He was brilliant last year but the 7/2 on offer for this years race is a joke. The horse has done nothing to impress me this season. He might come good come March but that might not even be good enough. There are a good 6 horses in the race with a great chance and bookmakers should be going 5/1 the field.

menorah has proven course form.proven season form.is with a good trainer.and a good jockey..his price of 5/1 represents his chance  imo..maybe even better than a 5/1 chance.the acceleration he showed in his last race was very impressive to my eye..the down side is that they were 2 novices..none the less it was visually impressive..

I dont think that BOTH Hurricane Fly and Binocular can run a big race, one of them will depending on the ground

imo, of course

.

Hi Goretski. I've already given it to one of the guys. I'll stand you for £25 at 40s if you like.