Cheltenham Festival
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MILLE CHIEF without a shadow of a doubt for me,what exactly has he beat to entitle him to be 10s in places for the champion hurdle?shocking price,i may be made look silly after todays racing,but i still think at this moment in time 10/1 for mille chief is shocking!!
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Think he was something like 33's after Christmas, then Pricewise or some influential tipster singled him out and the price collapsed.
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agree,awful price based on nothing achieved
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Mille Chief is the worst value of the festival
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glad im not the only one who thinks this,
ye that would partly explain his price roger,but anyone willing to back this horse at 10/1 should really give this game up! |
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Can I throw Dunguib into this!? 20's available is short enough, but Paddy Power and Boylesport offering 14's about a horse we haven't seen all season is ridiculous!!
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i know im going to get stick for this but for me binocular is bad value i think he should be bigger than 7/2.... my reasons? did he just beat stayers and horses that were not as good as 1st thought in ..champion. kyber k.zaynar ,celest halo,starluck ect hardly world beaters over 2m and what has he beat this season ? not saying he wont win but hes not value at the prices imo
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agree
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He's looking a shaky fav isn't he. All depends on how much stock you put in his win in last years champion.
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By some huge distance Peddlars Cross. Absolutely shocking form and should be trading around the 40s mark for me. The dumb the the glum on here seem to get impressed by a bunch of 1s in the form; they look beyond what it has beaten and how it has beaten them. Place lay of the meeting.
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I agree, where has Peddlars shown the speed to win a CH on decent ground? Binocular and Hurricane have shown they have it and Menorah showed it last time out and looked very impressive when he quickened up. I just cannot have peddlars at a similar price to these 3.
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the absolute worst value is Khyber Kim. I speak as someone who was richly rewarded by him last season and almost cried when he didn't beat Binocular.
But I'm sorry to say, he's gone. |
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Bobs Worth my nomination - Cannot for the life of me believe he streets better than Minella Class for a start.
Also do not rate that last race form literally at Cheltenham as i am convinced Backspin(fav) didn't run its race. Throw in the challenge from Ireland , bookies got it wrong pricing this fellow up. |
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how can you say kyber has gone after 1 run this year?
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I followed Khyber after he won a novice hurdle at Newbury. He came home like Hawk Wing that day. I lost faith in the run up to the '09-'10 season. More fool me.
Hurricane Fly is the worst value in the CH market. He's the one, if any, that will not know what hits him at Cheltenham. He may be capable but he has the most questions to answer imo. |
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Peddlers Cross strolled past Binocular when they met.
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Sageform, I don't massively fancy the chances of Binocular but it was the Autumn version of Binocular that PC had to be ridden flat out to get the better of; about 2 stone below what is required....and that's being generous.
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Binocular easily unless you judge him off one run and forget the rest!
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Sublimity sauntered past binocular in last seasons fighting fifth. Can't take his running from that race to be anything serious
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I agree with Foyleswar and Digger1.
Just because Binocular left his previous form well behind him when winning at Cheltenham last year does not necessarily mean he will do it again. Better race this year, relatively unimpressive build-up and plenty of other horses that could win makes 3-1 to 7-1 a poor price in my eyes. |
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i believe hurricane fly is worst value , cheltenham is prob the course in uk were track form is huge, getting up that hill is just not suited for some horses stamina, and hurricane fly altho he travels like a dream i think his stamina is in question
and on binocular , i dont know will he win but one thing is for sure they have followed the same route with binocular last year getting him just wound up for the race in march, you literally cannot judge him on previous form you forget you are dealing with a horse from the greatest punter of our time and everything he is aiming at is to punt this horse on the day just like last year wen he was pulled out of the race and was backed from 1,000/1 down |
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cant belive the bookies are still dangling 12s for millie after today surely 20s aftewr that effort
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think jp would be flattered to be called the gretaest punter of our time to be fair.
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Also, I don't think JP has lined Binocular up to be punted on the day! I think he would rather be going to the Festival with a 6-4 chance having seen Binocular win each of his races this year on the bridle.
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Surely winning a Grade 1 against an Aintree Hurdle winner over 20f proves Hurricane Fly's stamina?
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The fascinating thing about Binocular is that you have to disregard his runs this season, as you had to last season, in the belief that he'll turn up on the day.
In a sense he's like Quevega - who only appears at the Festival and wins. But what form student would pick Quevega to win the mares race? yet I reckon she'll go off even money fap. To all those who crab Peddler's Cross - Donald McCain is way more excited about him than Ballabriggs, even though he knows Ballabriggs will win the National. |
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People forget about Binoculars 3rd behind Punjabi and Celestial Halo in the 2009 Champion, is it possible the 2010 renewal was not as good as it looked at the time?
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and hurricane fly altho he travels like a dream i think his stamina is in question
You do realise he's won twice over 2m4f |
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hes won once over 2m 4 beating solwhit who he shud beat no matter whether its 2m or 2m4 if hes a champion contender, i said i think his stamina is in question its what iu think, i dont think he is as tough a horse as the likes of binocular or peddlers cross
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You realise he's had 4 battling finishes and won them all, he's a very game horse. No doubt about his toughness.
For example binocular has never won any battle finish he's had so it's very odd you consider his tougher than hurricane fly. I think you just don't like the horse, which is fair enough, but stamina and toughness are things he has shown on more than one occasion. |
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I would rate HF'S chances better on easy ground though, only because of the injuries he's had, if it did come up as fast as last year id be worried if id backed him as i wouldnt know how he'd stand up to the undulations on the ground.
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cv i presume u have him backed and im not saying he doesnt have the class to win this race, hes just not for me and for me is worst value at the price , given uve had the hit of media luz today i wont annoy u further by arguing with you
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worst value is Mille Chief 'cos he's the highest in the market that I can't see winning (not usually dogmatic about a horses chances). I'm not overly enamoured with Oscar Whisky either.
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Those battling finishes, could you name the 1-2-3 please.
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after mille chiefs performance today i honestly cannot believe hes available at 11s,25s/33s imo and thats been kind
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I'm surprised Dunguib hasn't been mentioned.
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?
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hurricane fly/ is terrible value / and if ypu are a layer you must get him/ all hius form is against one horse solwhit/ and that horse was thrashed in the champion last year, cant win a champion hurdle.
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hurricaine fly hasnt come off the snatch against this one horse all season.
If your talking that way then..Menorah represents the worst value for me! What decent sorts has he beaten?? |
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Menorah has invaluable experience at cheltenham,this must be a major plus for anyone considering the question of weighing up the present state of the market.
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