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Punchestown imo
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Must go Arkle it is only a 5 horse race now and with a more positive ride he will outkick Medermit, he nearly got up to beat Medermit after several mistakes we didnt see from him when he was 2nd to Ghizao at Cheltenham.
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I dont think they are going to write off Captain Chris's future at the Championship course because he made a few mistakes today. He jumped really well at Cheltenham coming 2nd to the Arkle fav on ground too slow for him so maybe he is better left handed than right handed?
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Hopefully he will put us out of our misery re this one and Wishfull Thinking soon :)
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Martin pipe returns, I thought you were a layer?
I think Captain Chris is open to some price spoofing now wouldn't you agree? |
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Captain Chris is a two miler?Quite how anyone could come to that conclusion on what we have seen not only today but on all of his runs over fences is bizarre if anything this horse wants even further than 2m4f imo
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Many horses in the Arkle will not end up as 2 milers as we know from the past.
As King says you need stamina in an Arkle which is why Medermit will be dropped back from his last 2 runs at two and a half where he has shown the most ability in his novice season so far to try and win over 2 miles. On better ground Captain Chris will be more likely to appreciate the drop in trip but he obviously needs a very positive ride as in his last few outings to prevent jumping mistakes shows. Only Arkle fav Ghizao has beaten Captain Chris at a shorter trip but on better ground over a stiff 2 m the gap between them could not only reduce but CChris could easily have the beating of them all ome March. All of the top 5 in the Arkle betting have a very good chance of winning but only a few of them have jumped Cheltenham well this season and Captain Chris is one of them and he did it over the shorter trip there. |
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To say that "Only Arkle fav Ghizao has beaten Captain Chris at a shorter trip" is very misleading.He has only had 1 race over fences at 2m,
Another way of putting it would be he has only BEAT 3 horses over fences at 2m (and those 3 horses were all carrying either 4 or 6lbs more than him). I appreciate this game is all about opinions,but for my money,Captain Chris would not beat Medermit off levels at ANY distance.I felt Medermit was idling in front yesterday and Captain Chris was grossly flatered by the result. As I said earlier....it's all about opinions ![]() ![]() |
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It is all about opinions and in terms of jumping over a short trip at Cheltenham, Captain Chris has done that jumping well left handed to be second to Ghizao on ground he doesnt excel on, Medermit has not shown anywhere near that form at Cheltenham over the shorter trip however he has shown very good form at the Jewson trip.
They are facts, however you are entitled to your opinion that when going right handed Captain Chris's numerous jumping mistakes when ridden out the back did not cost him the race against Medermit when there was next to nothing between them at the close and Captain Chris finishing much the best of the two. I am sure Captain Chris would have won yesterday with an in the van more positive ride and am expecting him to be ridden up there prominently in an Arkle to get a clear view of his fences and to deliver his excellent kick from closer to the lead. |
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I hope you are right Eric that Captain Chris goes for the Arkle,as I have backed the same owners Wishful Thinking for the Jewson[;)]
The facts as I see it,are that Captain Chris is still a maiden over fences,despite recieving weight in 2/3 of his races. I can't remember an Arkle winner who went into the race with this sort of profile,however if you feel that a more positive ride/better ground and a bare 2m will bring about the improvement needed then fair enough.Not for me though.Good luck anyway. |
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Dickie Johnson thinks he would have won if he hadnt made the mistake at the third last and wants Captain Chris to go for the Arkle.
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Only half a length between them would think from what the jockey has said he wont be dawdling out the back on him next time, he will be up there getting a clear view of his fences and delivering that kick from nearer the lead. Good value for the Arkle now if the owners take the jockeys advice. Dickie knew what he had under him there and he wants to take Medermit on again.
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can you post a link for where this has been quoted please eric.
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eric_morris:-
Just give Hobbs a ring a ask him to run in the Arkle as you've had a fiver on. |
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gutfeeling ... just been to the supermarket to get sunday dinner and saw it in the RPost, took a quick peek.
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cheers eric..i'll go buy a copy and have a read as leopardstown is off :(
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Surely will go for the Arkle
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Don't think he's quick enough for the Arkle tbh
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That would make Medermit not fast enough for an Arkle based on yesterdays race.
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Too slow for the Arkle imhacco
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..quick enough for an Arkle. (think we know who finished quickest even after jumping mistakes)
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Needs 2m 4f at least imho..plus a right handed track imhacco
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The worst Captain Chris has jumped was right handed yesterday. By contrast he has jumped really well around Cheltenham. Captain Chris had the speed to get within half a length of Medermit, even after an uncharacteristic few mistakes, Medermit showed over hurdles in the past and again yesterday he doesnt have the greatest kick yet is being dropped back to 2 miles.
King has said he thinks a horse needs stamina to win an Arkle and all the greats have got 2m 4f whether it be Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop even Sizing Europe last season. |
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even if captain chris could turn the form around with medermit its unlikely to happen in the arkle imo
right choice from king,he knows whats required to win the race and after a stop/start season with medermit he looks a very sound jumper now...and from a stats viewpoint he hits all of em. |
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Captain Chris looked too novicey to win an Arkle imo - if he makes any of these mistakes at Cheltenham it will be race over. Thought he was a lively outsider before Sats race but Medermit, who jumped and travelled well, looks a better prospect.
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Before the race trainer said Arkle with wishfull thinking the Jewson and Tarablaze for the RSA.
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wold love to see wishfull thinking in the arkle abbott....serious horse and have been banging on about him being better suited to 2 miles for the whole season.
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looks like the arkle for captain chris.billy hill have chopped him to 8/1 !
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I dont think this years Arkle has a lot of strength in depth and i was keen to take on the front 2 in the market. I took 23's on Realt Dubh b4 his Grade 1 win in Ireland and took the view that the Scilly Isles would produce another contender. I thought it was between Medermit and Captain Chris and eventually plumped for the 14s on Captain Chris. I think both are genuine contenders and i can see both being in there with a big shout. I agree with the comments on here about a more positive ride needed for Captain Chris but i dont think 2miles will suit Medermit any better than Captain Chris. In fact i have always thought 2.5m is more Medermits trip.I think the edge for me in the choice is Captain Chris is still fairly lightly raced and there is room for improvement. He has raced less than half the amount of Medermit and as good a runs he has produced at Cheltenham you would have to be slightly worried with no wins in 5 attempts at the track.
Any double figure prices about both horses will be a good bet come the day. |
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Trainer on ATR said he's leaning towards the Jewson, Arkle if Soft. Jockey prefers Arkle regardless. May run in the Pendil.
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bit strange as we all know itl be g/s soft in places officially then ride like good ground.i actually think reyes post is the best option for the horse
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Connections dont have a clue with this horse, just as well Hobbs is good with hurdlers and Johnson good at riding hurdlers.
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Captain Chris won the Arkle in my dream last night... can't remember what was second but, disturbingly, a horse called Turtle Run was third - he's not entered and I was n't even sure he existed - he does though - unraced 8yo bought at Tattersalls Ireland sales for princely sum of 1,000 Euros in 2007.
I'll freak out if he gets a supplementary entry ![]() |
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Maybe P Hobbs should consult Eric Morris before mapping out his plans for his festival runners...Well at least the chasers or the ones Eric has backed for certain races
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If Tarablaze runs OK this weekend,my guess would be:
Arkle Captain Chris Jewson Wishful Thinking RSA Tarablaze |
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magic carpet ... maybe Hobbs should consult punters like you with 10 quid at big odds on something else in the race before mapping out plans for opponents to your horse.
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Eric-I'm not the person making comments on trainers inabilitys to place horses it was a tounge in cheek comment from myself.Eric you have no idea who i am, how i bet or what i do for a living so until you do(which rest assured you wont find out)keep your asssumptions to yourself please
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You had the first dig mate so dont act all haughty now
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Watching Finian's there you would fancy Captain Chris to be in the Arkle shake up with a positive ride.
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