Wise price Arkle

Hi - thanks for that - will it go back to 20/1 at lads at 9:00 or 9:30 or never?
Cheers

I'll have to read what he says, but PH said on RUK after Wishfull Thinking won at Chelt, that CC likely needs further than 2 miles and may not run in the Arkle. In any case he is surely overrated. All this Ghizao form is very very suspect imo.

Tom usually takes at least one angle you can understand but Captain Chris has NO CHANCE of winning the Arkle. Cannot possibly beat Ghizao and may not run in the race. Should be 33/1+. The 16s he has advised is terrible value.

Totally agree. This is one of the worse tips I've seen from him. I haven't seen the paper. What reasons does he give for this?

Probably be consigned to the bin with the Spirit River voucher come the weekend...

Shoking tipstering imo.

If you wanted to put up a wild one surely Stagecoach Pearl was worth a poke.

Surely Realth Dubh at 12/1 or Merdermit at 14/1 are much better value - both way overpriced (especially Realth Dubh) if you ask me, even if I do want Finians to prove the real deal.

Sorry guys think you are way off target. This horse has a great chance on good ground at the festival.Highly rated by hobbs. If he runs will be in first 3 no doubt.16s is pretty good value for me.

Unfortunately the going will be soft (NAP), so that blows that theory out the water.

"Highly rated by Hobbs".

That is exactly the horse has been continuously underpriced.

Just because PH though he was his Arkle horse last April, everything he has done on the track has been excused.

Slow boat and not good enough. Got 10lb and a thrashing at Newbury.

*why the horse*

Must be a fair price to run in the Arkle.  Golden Miller, Mildmay, Grand Annual all more likely targets imo.

"Highly rated by Hobbs".

What like Keki Buku was you mean?

W1sepr1ce the plagiarising g1t 


By: This user is online. eric_morris
When: 27 Nov 10 09:52

Captain Chris is the horse I rate 2nd best for the Arkle at this stage and you wont see a better Arkle trial than the Cheletenham race all season imo. Ghizao loves Good to Soft which is what he will get on Cheltenham tuesday. Has all the credentials and Ruby is a great judge, if he mentions the Stewart/Johnson horse as a potential Well Chief and based on what I have seen that is good enough for me.

I am expecting another development on the Arkle front however from another horse who will be a big player imo.


By: This user is online. eric_morris
When: 29 Dec 10 12:58

Still think Captain Chris has a major chance in the Arkle on quicker ground he has run extremely well and Cheltenham March ground is what he needs imo.


By: This user is online. eric_morris
When: 30 Dec 10 00:13

Captain Chris will improve an awful lot on good ground he needs especially over the stiff Chelts track.


By: This user is online. eric_morris
When: 03 Jan 11 01:17

Hurdles and fencing form are totally different. Captain Chris has made ground each race at the close to take second he needs faster ground to travel on when we will see his energies preserved for later in the race when that strong finish can be delivered from closer to the lead ... he could win the Arkle on faster ground imo. Ghizao all going well is the horse to catch he jumps and travels beautifully in a race and has an excellent kick. His breathing operation recently seems to have helped him an awful lot and similarly Captain Chris think it can only help him at Cheltenham when the pace is on from start to finish in the Arkle. Finian's Rainbow will cruise around and we will see how his kick compares to the other 2 as they will all be ridden from 2 out up the hill to try and get on top. Fascinating race coming up and 2nd only to the Champion Hurdle for excitement for me.


By: This user is online. eric_morris
When: 05 Dec 10 13:14

Noble Prince looks an ideal candidate for the new 2m 4f chase he seems to lack that bit of toe when it matters for an Arkle horse. He has run well over 3m over hurdles and seems to have a preference for slower ground. None of these good signs for an Arkle imo.

Captain Chris who was mentioned in the first post on this thread ran v well in the hottest Arkle trial so far for me. He will improve a lot for better ground and that first outing over fences where we already know he jumps well. A strong run Arkle on faster ground will suit him down to the ground where he will travel better and forge on strongly to the line. The first day at the Festival is good/soft but a bit quicker than the Cheltenham trial which will make things interesting between him and Ghizao, who also likes good/soft come March.

Good stuff Eric.
I'm on GHIZAO, but I rate Captain Chris as a very good horse and, from what I've seen this season, I would not be surprised if they are 1st and 2nd in the Arkle.

The Couch and Tom

Spirit River for World Hurdle


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Looks like it needs to go right handed to me ...very interested if in turns up on saturday round sandown ...no chance of winning at cheltenham

He's won at Cheltenham before over hurdles in a decent race and excellent 2nd on ground he doesnt favour over fences. Think course suits him.

I know the girl who looks after Salden Licht, and that day he wasn't right. Line through the form.

Good god Johnson got Captain Chris all over the shop in behind there. A more prominent ride like Medermit and he'd have won. Medermit lacks finishing pace, this is his trip nearly caught by Captain Chris when given a head start from a poor ride.

I suspect connections will now shy away from the Arkle

With a half as good ride there CChris would have won that comfortably he has a kick for an Arkle, Medermit travels but doesnt have that kick needed to win at 2 miles in top class. Pretty sure connections will choose the wrong race with Medermit, King interviewed by Alice said he knew where he was going but wouldnt tell her.

not sure eric re. CC in the Arkle. the lines through Ghizao and Hells Bay would suggest 3 place at best so they may think a better chance of the longer distance. Who knows a good horse all the same and not a vintage ride

Not on better ground, Captain Chris was the best horse in the race today, hindered by a terrible ride and showing the best kick in the race despite this to nearly get up. Medermit just doesnt have that kick amongst the best at 2 miles. Hobbs must be annoyed with the ride Johnson gave CChris there.

Medermit will definitely drop back in trip as my view of the race is that if Captain Chris had jumped cleaner he would have beaten Medemit.

Medermit cruised through the race and pulled his way to the front.  Has plenty of pace imo, likely top rated hurdler and is value at 8/1 for the Arkle with the front two not entireley convincing.

If you think Medermit had better finishing pace than Captain Chris there you were either watching a different race or have your bet goggles on.

Chaps i just dont think either of them CC & Medermit) jump well enough and are quick enough for the Arkle. Still looks to me like the top 2 in the b etting are the right ones and the form lines keep reinforcing it...the game is all about opinions!

Not bet Medermit yet as I had a double at the start of the season with him and Go Native so don't want to blow any more cash antepost whilst he still has the option of the Jewson!

Over 2 miles, CC has looked a right plodder imo, that was his stamina kicking in at the end and Medermit was idling/tired.

Over two miles, Medermit would be well clear of CC which puts him on a similar footing as Ghizao.

There is nothing in the Arkle this year which would have been able to mix it with the Champion Hurdlers as Medermit did last year and now he has got his jumping together I cannot see him out of the frame.

Backed Medermit today as knew the trip would suit without his need for as good a kick over this trip as over 2 miles. Captain Chris needs a positive ride for once over 2 miles on quicker ground instead of dossing around with the back markers not getting a clear view of his fences most the way around. Would back Captain Chris against Medermit over 2 miles with a positive up with the van ride for him, Medermit wouldnt have the pace to get away from him. The best performance Medermit had over hurdles he beat the poor CHurdler Punjabi in a trial, whenever he came up against anything half decent he was left for pace at the finish.

captain chris doesnt jump well enough to be considered for the arkle at all..yogi bresner required if they want him to excel over fences.

i'd agree with eric that he could have won today with a better ride but with his jumping he couldnt maintain a position unlike medermit who jumped great throughout which won him the race as he was running on empty at the death..2m4f the best option for cc if they want him to have any chance of placing at the festival

medermit will be involved in the finish in the arkle,could make for interesting debate regarding the closeness of cc to medermit in relation to ghizao you do have to consider the course/ground/distance and of course the recent throat op when cc and ghizao last met and the same with hells bay and finians rainbow...whatever the outcome day 1 of the festival is looking red hot

also think reve de sivola needs to go back to hurdles as doesnt seem to enjoy chasing at all imo

I thought it was a thoroughly convincing Arkle trial by Medermit with his accurate and economical jumping - he handled Sandown superbly for an inexperienced chaser and I think there was more in the locker than there looked to be at the finish.

Agreed , dossed a bit in front , CC may win an Arkle on a stiff right handed track , but even then he still has to jump round , going left-handed at pace , sorry .

Or save CC for Aintree?

Aintree was still left handed last time I looked.

Merdermit will definitely go for the Arkle now and if he jumps as well as he did today he will be hard to beat - CC certainly can't beat him and should be aimed at the new 2m4f novice race instead.

Why Uncle ?
He's not going to win anything left handed jumping right.If it's that noticeable on a right handed track it's a serious problem.

Would Medermit have to carry a penalty in the new 2.5 mile race as it is a G2, having just won a G1 - if this is the case he will be even worse off with Hells Bay than he was at Chelt last time, therefore convinced he will go for the Arkle,even without that factor think Arkle should be the route

He will have a penalty.

I'm not certain,not all G2's penalize G1 winners

Captain Chris would have won today with a more positive ride from the jockey even with the jumping mistakes. Next time out in the Arkle the ground will be better again for him which will accentuate his better finishing pace than Medermit's even more than today.

Medermit in to 7s, Captain Chris in to 10s the Arkle is cutting up pretty badly now it looks like Ghizao, Finian's Rainbow, Medermit, Captain Chris and Realt Dubh have it between them now as a 5 horse race and a few outsiders tagged on.

All to play for for these 5 on a stiff Cheltenham track where some have good experience jumping around, Ghizao winning there and both Captain Chris and Medermit coming 2nd there this season and the others will be doing it the first time on the day. Course experience will prove invaluable in the Arkle imo.

Which ones don't ,Rob ?

Aintree Novice Hurdles, both Menorah and Peddlers Cross (Chelt G1 winners)carried the same weight in these two G2's as every other horse

Cheers mate.
Nick Luck said he'd have a penalty for the 20f race. Maybe he's wrong.

when/where did he say that, don't think connections have even considered that in their plans though

Sometime after the race today.

thanks fb

“Happy Days Are Here Again” was ringing loudly around Barbury Castle at evening stables on Saturday, a brilliant treble being highlighted by an impressive success for Medermit in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown, our first Grade 1 celebration since Voy Por Ustedes captured the Melling Chase at Aintree two years ago. Medermit, who started 5-2 favourite, led at the Pond fence, and, though Captain Chris closed him down all the way up the hill, the grey always looked like holding on, having jumped better than his rivals all the way round and produced a thoroughly professional performance. Bookmakers quote Medermit at 10-1 for the Arkle, and, while Alan refused to confirm that the Grade 1 chase would be the preferred option over the newly instituted Grade 2 Jewson’s Novices’ Chase, the fact that he would get a penalty for the longer race is likely to tilt the scales towards the Arkle.

Entries in weekender allcarry 11.4 mares allowed 7lb

I  can confirm that there are no penalties for grade 1 winners in new race - I know realt dubh owner
who looked into it

If Medermit and CC run in the Arkle it will make it much easier to build a double with FR in the Arkle and the winner of the Jewson. I must get my tounge out of my cheek but without a fall see no reason why either Medermit or CC would beat FR!

on sportinglife.com p.hobbs has said captain chris for the arkle if its soft ,or the jewson if good /soft

captain chris needs further- might even stay 3m