Cheltenham Festival
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Fred Winter
Fred Winter
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Replies: 137
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Credit must go to Nicky Henderson imv, for dispelling the myth that is "plot jobs" in racing
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Why is she still 5/1 for the Fred Winter? Who on earth would touch her at those odds?
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If she's 5/1 on the day it's more than fair imo, it's difficult at the moment to see any credible opposition. Surely Sailor's Warn must get a similar mark, given he's achieved more than A Media Luz so she might not have to lump top weight round.
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at 137 shell carry top weight in fred winter with no mares allowance surely shell go for triumph only carrying 10'7 , anyone any idea when the weights for the fred winter wud be known
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I have to agree with CVByrne. Right now we would have no clue what's going to run in the race.
Not a race to be backing AP on. you could back A Media Luz today and by Monday be wishing you hadn't. Best left alone for a couple of weeks and bet when we have more idea what is actually going to run |
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It's different taking the 14/1 on offer when she had a 119 rating, but there is no real upside to backing her now and waiting till nrnb.
Still with Henderson having the fav for the Troumph and with AML being the current fav for the Fred Winter you'd expect her to take her chance in this. |
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Why? I just don't know why you would go for the Fred Winter on 137!? She get's 7lbs anyway in the Triumph so she only has to find a few pounds to win it. Whereas she could go for the Fred Winter against a bunch of horses that have been campaigned for the race with a decent mark. She would have to run to a mark simular to what she would to win the Triumph to win the Fred Winter. If they think the track makes that much of a difference fair enough but if she's not good enough to win a Triumph she's going to struggle off that mark in the Fred Winter.
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Agree with all those points Masterminded, but as CVB says, if they think Grandouet is better, they will want to try and win both races wont they? If you were NJH, wouldnt you think it was daft to have the two of them take each other on?
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Ye I agree with that. I just don't agree with the she's not good enough so she will run in the Fred Winter theory.
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yeah exactly carrying top weight in fred winter or 10'7 in triumph , its much an much, no way you cud say the fred winter is an easier option esp with so many horses unexposed, just on your point 'cant catch me' about henderson wanting to win both i was of this view also but then you have to remember its not hendersons choice if the owners think they have a chance of winning a grade1 i.e. triumph they will surely take their chance ,
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Well Hendo thinks she isn't good enough and was always going to aim at the Fred Winter, he's hardly going to change his mind now given she's fav for the race and he has Grandouet as fav for the Triumph, he's out classed AML fair and square.
Think of the owners, Hendo is saying to them Grandouet is better than AML, I want to send her for the Fred winter. You're hardly going to argue with him especially when your horse is 5/1 for the race. |
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Take your point, but still think it seldom works like tha j2010. NJH will be advising the owners, and he is bound to try and talk them into a position where he has one in each imo. And not many owners would over rule their trainer...
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I agree with that too MM.
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"I'd like to go to the Fred Winter with her, that's always been the objective and I think that's where she belongs. Grandouet beat her at Newbury pretty comfortably and that tells you all you need to know."
Might be worth doing an e/w double on the two of them especially if AML can win of 137 then Grandouet must have a stonking chance in the Triumph. nrnb of course. |
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Though I do agree a 4 1/2l defeat by Grandouet followed up by what would have been to easy wins means she deserves to run in the Triumph. She is clearly a very good horse indeed.
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Plots or no plots, class can tell in this race.
We know Sanctuaire last year was chucked in, but I also remember Crack Away Jack and Ashkazar finishing a mile clear of the field in this race and they, I think, were the top two in the weights. I agree top weight is not ideal, but if NJH reckons AML has the class to win it, why not go for it when, as you boys have explained, you already the Triumph fav a couple of boxes along in the yard? |
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anyone know when the fred winter prices were available, i backed her end of november but it doesnt state the race , this is prob my only hope now at this stage :)
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cant believe there were any Fred Winter prices available in November
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That would have ben the triumph. Fred winter only opened up this year.
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Agree wholeheartedly with you CVByrne. wtf did NJH run her in a poxy egg n spoon nov race then pick up 18lbs when he could have waited for a 5lb penalty. Outragously bad training, imho
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I think he was worried 124 might not be good enough to get in off given how high the juveniles are being rated this season, also if anything went wrong and he failed to win with her he'd miss the festival completely.
I think he thought the race is there, might as well go for it. I don't think he thought she'd go and win like that. 10-12lb rise might have been what he factored. |
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AP to ride Grandouet and BG will be on AML with 7lbs allowance.
Mares have a great record in race AML is Gp3 placed on flat so jumping placed or winner in black type race is worth more than a winner in FW She will stay alright |
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There's always the possibility that she doesn't handle races well enough to turn out again a few days later and so rules out the penalty option. I can't believe Henderson would be silly enough not to have thought it the best option, it makes most sense to me at least that she just isn't able to come out and give her true running again say 3 days after a race.
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Read Hendersons comments below, he said those after the race. He doesn't think she's good enough for the triumph and since she's fav for the Fred Winter there's no reason for him to change his mind
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CV do you really believe shes not good enough for the Triumph but she will win the Fred Winter off 137? |
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No, I think Henderson thinks Grandouet is better and that she'd be better off in the Fred Winter.
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Why would she be better off in the Triumph though? As has been said before she would be better off placing in the Triumph. Fwiw Grandoet's beating of her at Newbury should not be taken at face value. I was there and she still was a very fizzy horse. She's very progressive so I think it's dangerous to believe that Grandoet is greatly superior to her. Anyway she runs where she runs but she would have just as much chance winning the Triumph and if I were an owner/breeder and she was mine she would run in the Triumph.
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Yep Masterminded I agree
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Masterminded have you backed her for the triumph?
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'' Fwiw Grandoet's beating of her at Newbury should not be taken at face value. I was there and she still was a very fizzy horse. She's very progressive so I think it's dangerous to believe that Grandoet is greatly superior to her.''
Would agree with that whilst adding i'd still be a little worried about her temperament for Cheltenham...she's been calmer the last 2 but there's plenty of distractions at the Festival |
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Any chance they would stick Bass on her to take a few pounds off?
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Albion Dan
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Obviously NJH rates Grandouet a better horse, but you could also say Sam Winner is better the Gran as he thumped him at Cheltenham earlier in the season. But horses do improve and constantly make us look like fools. I do believe AML is much more settled and her jumping has always been superb from day One. If she was mine, I would opt for the Triumph with BJ on board
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Can this please end the debate? From Barry Geraghty
I did travel for yesterday’s meeting at Huntingdon, where A Media Luz cantered up in the juvenile hurdle. She had been unlucky when she fell two-out at Kempton last time, and is a lovely mare. The Fred Winter Hurdle at Cheltenham is her next target. |
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CV have backed her in both. Admittedly at much larger odds for the Triumph. Fair enough if that's where she goes.
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Thats trainer after the race and Jockey in his blog. Now just need to hype her up big time and lay my stake back on the day, I've a pretty decent sized bet on @ 14/1.
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ok 'CVBynre' can u please tell me what blog ur quote from barry gerathy came from this is his quote from attheraces last saturday -
You couldn’t fault the performance of A Media Luz at Huntingdon on Thursday although I feel the form of the race is questionable as I’m not convinced the two horses in the race with form, Pantxoa and Two Kisses gave their true form. It depends on how the handicapper interprets the race as to where she goes next and whether the Fred Winter is an option since then shes been given a mark of 137 where u getting ur quote from and when??? |
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^
 CV LINK PLEASE. |
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well lets give him the benfit of the doubt here but i hope hes not lying about quotes
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