Cheltenham Festival
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Fred Winter
Fred Winter
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Replies: 137
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Good luck CV, maybe the hcper won't watch the video...
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If she's under 130, i'll give up the game
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If she's under 135 i'll give up the game.
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She'll still win the FW off 135, calm down lads
 It was a stupid idea to run against something rated 129 though, he should have tried finding a really bad race. |
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18l beating of a 129 rated horse getting 15lbs = 132 so anywhere in the low 130's is where she'll be at and run off around 11-8 in the fred winter.
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an 18l beating of a pantxoa who is rated 129 but she was getting 15lbs i reckon 127-130 any more than that then they have to go for the truimph hurdle. imo thats where she should be anyway especially with the mares allowance the owners should have there say on this one she jumps brillantly she stays and in a very open year id rather be placed in a truimph hurdle than win a fred winter especially with a filly too
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Far better winning a fred winter than placing in a triumph.
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Plus when he already has the winner of the triumph, many decent horses have run in the fred winter in the past.
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Excuse my ignorance but when will we find out her new mark?
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CV I'd say the handicapper has been very harsh on the Juveniles as a crop this year, looking through some of the triumph hurdle entries and their respective best RPRs and the ORs they have achieved...
Architrave - RPR 121, OR 136 Danceintothelight - 110, 128 First Fandango - 110, 124 Houbon Des Obeaux - 137, 148 Local Hero - 130, 141 Marsh Warbler - 140, 151 Meetings Man - 114, 122 Pantxoa - 107, 129 Pullyourfingerout - 120, 130 Titan De Sarti - 113, 123 Through Two Kisses today she should get an almost identical rating to Grandouet of 145. Literally through Pantxoa she should 132, but she won very easily and taking the Grandouet/A Media Luz Newbury race as an example he usually gives a 'very easy' winner an extra 5lbs on top of the literal reading. This would of course leave A Media Luz off a mark of 137. He could even raise Pantxoa from his mark of 129, as he's always been well thought of by the Kings and has obviously improved on his RPR judging by the distance back to Two Kisses and the rest. I reckon she'll get an RPR of the high 120s for the race (With Two Kisses running a 5lb worse or so race than last time) meaning she'll probably get an official rating in all likelehood of the high 130s minimum. She's obviously progressing very nicely and in my opinion something in the below the Mid 130s can be something connections should only dream of. Anything below 136ish is a massive bonus. |
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If NJH was keen on the Fred Winter, why did he not find a race about 5 days from the festival, win it and run with a penalty. I even thought they might have waited till the Imperial Cup on the sat and catch the bonus.
Hope it goes for the Triumph as I'm on at 20s but took the 10s for the FW as insurance  |
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She settled nicely today duncers
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Ekbalco - i don't think RPRs take into account WFA when they rate juvenile hurdlers. that's why they always appear so low, especially early season.
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Extreme conviction not ekbalco.
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Good point Dan. Cheers for pointing that out. Still can't get away from a mark above 135 though looking at how he's rated other inferior horses. 137 in my guess.
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Off topic, but, hopeful of a good run on Saturday, dan ?
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When you look at the rating of Mark Twain on an OR of 134(arguably too high imo). 3rd in the race behind A Media Luz and Grandouet I can't see her being any lower than high 130's. I'm not sure what Henderson was doing if he thought she was a Fred Winter horse. You don't run a Fred Winter horse against decent sorts and more importantly for the HC yard sticks and trounce them looking between your legs! There is no doubt in my mind she's good enough to battle it out for the Triumph and she will be ridiculuosly lucky to again get a leniant mark.
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Yeah hopeful TD, Brian's happy with him. I don't think the ground will be soft enough for him to win a race like that, but i'm sure he'll give it a good go!
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Best of luck with him, think he'll run a big race!
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Cheers, fingers crossed!
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new ratings will be issued at 8.30 next tuesday morning , looks like there will be alot of nervous triumph/fred winter backers until then im hoping for a rating close to 140 which would force her to run in the triumph, people must remember aswel that brampour won handy today, and it will be deep in handicappers mind that aml would have beaten brampour bar the fall so i reckon aml's rating will be higher than brampour, what will brampours be??? also today was a class 2 race, tried to find some previous ratings trends but last years winner sang bleu was only seen end of this year over fences, anyone any idea who won this race in 09'
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Agreed, Ekbalco, she's definitely getting her act together....i do think another reason why NJH is preferring the Fred Winter is that the races are run on diferent corses (old and new) and the Triumph presents the slightly stiffer test of stamina....speed and jumping are going to be her main weapons, not stamina.
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Given an RPR of 133 for the race. Something around the 140 mark looking likely.
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If she's given a rating of 140 will NH aim her at the Triumph?
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Given she would only need to find 10lbs to win a very good Triumph I hope so.
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Where will the new rating be published at 8.30?
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Ive just been on the BHA website & theres nothing on there yet.
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there put up every wednesday morning at 8.30
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Also in The Weekender/Raceform Update on Wednesdays
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137. I'd probably want be a backer in the FW off that mark.
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I made the mistake of backing Crack Away Jack at 5/1 before the weights were out a couple of year ago and he went out to 16/1 so I'm not making that mistake again.
This race was started to make the Triumph a less demanding race on 4yo's so you tend to get alot of horses who aren't quite up to top class. A Media Luz is along way short of being Nicky Henderson's top novice and she'd be no certainty in this. I doubt if the handicapper will be doing her any favours. I'd want to know what Steve Gollins decide to do with Local hero before jumping in. He's a real classy horse and I'd have him over her any day on the week. Tough race to be stabbing an AP guess at as none that run will be considered world beaters by their trainers or would be running in the Triumph. |
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Topweights last year ran off 135 (both were geldings)....given that she will get allowance in Triumph, i'd say that mark makes it very hard to know which way they'll decide. If they go for Fred Winter, i'm absolutely certain you'll hear Mick Fitz say 'if she cant win this off 137, she'd have had no chance in the Triumph' at some stage (like that helps at all)!
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yeah it might be easier for her to win the triumph than a FW off 137, but there are a fair few rated in the high 140s this season, and the facts she'd almost crtainly prefer the easier track and the yard have the triumph fav already - my guess is they'll go FW.
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They'll probably still go for the fred winter but I'm pretty angry at henderson for costing this horse a serious chance of winning this race. She was on 119 and a penalty was all she needed to get in. she'll shoulder top weight and not win this race now.
Antepost book crumbling these past few days |
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They might as well run her in the Triumph IMO. To win a Fred Winter you need plenty in hand. Off top weight and with a sex allowance she has just as much chance in the Triumph. They certainly fcuked up her mark if the Fred Winter was always the plan.
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Well henderson said she's not good enough for the triumph so that's pretty much it. He said fred winter is the aim and given she's now a 5/1 shout for the race and he already has the fav for the triumph it's a no brainer.
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where is everyone getting the 137 from?? , is it not officaly known until tomorrow ??
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It is 137.
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I also backed her before her last run, and am quite disappointed. She would have a chance off 137, but there will surely be better handicapped horses in the field that have been properly plotted for it. Just think how far she'd have won by under a penalty
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A lot of people seem to be taking it for granted she will act on the track not to mention cope with the occasion.
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