Cheltenham Festival
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28 Jan 11
13:40
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08 Mar 03
Couldnt find a thread for this race....Plan A looks a live one for owner successful 2 yrs ago with Silk Affair. Any other likely types yet?
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A Media Luiz wins this pulling a tank off 119. I and a few other shrewd punters had a big bet at 14/1.
Was then immediately cut to 10s  |
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you not worried that she still hasn't learnt to settle?
Granted, the fast festival pace will help but if they run her again to give her experience she may settle and win, blowing her handicap mark in the process. If they don't run her again, you won't know until the day Although she didn't settle last time and still looked like winning comfortably, you never know how much energy they have used up until the last couple of furlongs (especially at Cheltenham with the uphill finish) and even off 119, she would struggle to win a competitive handicap at Cheltenham if she pulls as hard as she has been imo |
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I tend to agree with Marvinho.
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I sort of agree with you both.
But fred winter winners dont win in their first 2 outings. Just way up Grandouet, we thought he was average. then we read that he should always have the ear plugs, then a 20lb improvement etc. Bt will a 119 horse automatically get in ??? |
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there is going to be an Irish plot horse come out about 2 weeks before the festival
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119 very unlikely to get her in the race, so she'll have to run again. maybe they'll wait for the weights to come out and hope she can pick up a penalty and sneak in off 124. agree she could be chucked in by then!
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Is the Fred Winter definitely the target for A Media Luz?
I've got a couple of quid on her for the Triumph at the price currently available on here - is it worth getting rid?? |
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119 wont get in IMO Like Dan I would try and get a penalty. Either at Sandown or even Stratford on teh Monday.
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The problem with getting a penalty is that even if a horse has an easy race, they often leave the big Cheltenham race behind them.
How many times have we seen Imperial Cup winners who are chucked in off their marks at cheltenham, fail to deliver, or just get beaten by an equally well handicapped, but slightly fresher horse that has raced in the weeks leading up to the Festival? |
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Can anyone tell me if this race is the plan for A Media Luz?
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u mean the imperial cup winners not trained by pipe marvinho cos i can think of at least 3 of his that won at chelt.
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Tavaris not sure tbh. I really like the horse and despite her fall lto I think shes the best jumper out of all of the juveniles. I would think she may well go for it after all Henderson only really has 1 other for the race. I guess she could run on racing post day? That would maybe answer a couple of q's?
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AML looks way ahead of a mark of 119 to me.Would have won 10l+ at Kempton - lots of talent as yet unleashed.
An 11f winner in France,the hill will hold no terrors - just a case of settling her and luck ir. |
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Would she get in on 119?
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Think 122 was bottom weight last year.
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121 the year before and 122 for the year before that.
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Brown envelopes may have to change hands.
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No they haven't stated that this is the target for A Media Luiz but given the huge helping hand the handicapper has given them then it's almost certainly going to be wait for the weights then get penalty and sneak in off 124. Madness to do anything but.
Basically I'm happy with my sizable bet given I can lay off what I like on the day when she's 9/4  |
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CVB - you talk Sh** Constantly
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''An 11f winner in France,the hill will hold no terrors - just a case of settling her''
Something they failed to do on her previous visit to Cheltenham and still free at Kempton last time aswell. Impossible to say at this stage whether 'the hill will hold any terrors' for her, and the fact she won a 5-runner egg-and-spoon race in the French Provinces at 11f is certainly no guarantee, particularly as she seemed to struggle to last home at same trip subsequently. |
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Entered up in the chatters fen at huntingdon and in a 0-130 at taunton, hcper might get another look.
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God to hear. Nice low target.
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a media luz backers done they're money IMO.
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*their ffs.
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yup too good for fred winter. should be fav for triumph she is the classiest horse in the field and she settles much better in every race.
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Disaster
 After watching the price fall all week from 10 to 9 then to 8, finally decided to back her last night. |
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132 means not a chance of fred winter. It was worth a shot. We know the risks of antepost betting.
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Henderson on ruk saying that Fred Winter still the plan.
Expects her to go up 5 or 6 lbs  Nick Luck did laugh at that! |
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On a literal line today she flys up to 132, then carries about 11-8 I the race.
She goes up 13lbs i'd say. |
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Nicky is hoping her mark won't go up. I would imagine her mark will go up loads for that!? Can't see why she hasn't improved a lot since Newbury! NJH seemed very negative about her.
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she won by about 20 lengths without being asked for an effort. hcper will have her good for at least 30 lengths superiority. he'll have her about 144 i reckon.
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Impressed with her jumping today, i have a feeling she will be going for the triumph.
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Personally I have always thought she was the best jumper out of the juveniles this year. She's electric and when she gets a fast pace it will really play to her strengths. I can't believe she will run in anything apart from the triumph.
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Henderson has said she goes for the fred winter and she was getting 15lbs from the horse in 2nd today. 132 is the literal mark to give her. Won't be more.
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I hope you are right cv.
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Would be surprised if she doesn't get 135+. Somewhere in high 130s would be my guess.
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She would still be chucked in off of 132 IMO. We shall see. Will be interesting to see what the handicapper does.
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He's not going to raise her more than 13lbs. That'd be very harsh. We'll see, if she's under 130 I'll be cuffed to bits.
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Could mean that Henderson believes AML can't live with Grandouet, hence the Fred Winter still being the target
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