Menorah

I think that is right too. Menorah got a post mark of 164 for his Greatwood Hurdle win - very serious form indeed. If he improves a bit and jumps a bit better (he does make the odd mistake as he did at Aintree last season when General Miller wore him down) , he is now very near to Binocular's best ever run of 175 in last season's champion hurdle. These are a couple of small "if's" as I expect him to improve alright, and his jumping in generally okay and should get better with practice.

Mind you Binocular's history suggests he has a few "if's" too. Its not as if his form is unblemished. I became a fan of Binocular after he won at Liverpool a couple of seasons ago - he was brilliant. After that he has produced his very best form only intermittently.

However I am not sure any of this has passed the layers by at all. Menorah is now 8/1 and while I am kicking myself at missing the 10's and even 12's available after the race, the 8/1 seems about right. I wouldn't try to put anyone off backing him at 8/1 as he has the form to put him pretty close to in form Binocular and Hurricane Fly, he just seems to love the Cheltenham hill which seems to really suit him perfectly, and seems a most hardy, tough and consistent individual. Each way betting makes some sort of sense too, as, barring accidents he looks very likely to be in the first 3.

One final point though. I know he does have form at Kempton, as was pointed out on  another thread. However the Christmas Hurdle may be one of those tactical slow run affairs which may not suit Menorah at all, and if he manages to get beaten there, the 8/1 may look very skinny indeed. I have it mind to wait till he gets beat en route to the Festival and then step in with a decent bet when the layers over react to a defeat in a race that would not suit him very well.

Not raced against CH horses yet.I like him a lot,but still has it to prove against the likes of Binocular etc.

There is a lot to like about the horse. He is about the only one from the SN last season that I thought might have the potential to make into a CH contender this season. In both the SN and the Greatwood, the horse got there a bit early (arguably, his class got him there a bit earlier than ideal for the horse) and that has been the main factor encouraging me to think there may be quite a bit more there than he has needed to show so far and that he might actually prove pretty useful in any company under his preferred race conditions.

However, as Buddeliea says, Menorah still has to prove it against the big boys. Also, though a strong pace would seemingly be in his favour generally, there is still the point that the early pace in the CH is often much faster than anything second season hurdlers have encountered in their previous races. It is the fast early pace in the CH, particularly on ground anything less than good, that I think more than anything makes it a true test of a champion.

Plenty of second season hurdlers have looked good going into the CH for the first time, but then have not really coped with the demands posed by the fast early pace and other aspects of the race that make the CH such a unique test. Menorah looks to have the class to travel well off a decent pace, but he still has to prove he has the stamina to cope with what the fast early pace in the CH takes out of horses. And he also has to prove that he can adjust quickly into the fast early pace without being unsettled by it, flustered or losing jumping rhythm.

Winning the SN would probably seem like a cakewalk for Menorah by comparison with what he would need to do to beat an on-song Binocular on genuine spring ground in the CH, with the usual fast early pace of that race. But I like what I think I have seen in the horse enough to have his name on what is so far a very short short-list for the CH at this stage.

^^very much agree about fast early pace, but I'm convinced it'll help the horse rather than hinder. He'll need to jump better at that pace, though. The way Bino jumped the last in 2010 Champ was pure equine poetry.

Millhourse you were saying this at the start of the yr and i still disagree. i think dickie got there a bit too soon on sunday, but i dont think he needs holding up particularly.

Buddelia

I agree. Menorah certainly didn't stop in front, in fact he ran on very strongly indeed and held the runner up all the way to the line - he is a real tough nut.

I don't go for the "hasn't proved it against the big boys" stuff either. You can equate handical form to group form imo - its just a matter of ratings. Suppose Denman had never run in the gold Cup after he won the hennessy with all that weight. Would anyone really say he had it to prove when he ran 184 to win the Hennessy?

Menorah ran, on Sunday first time out, just 11 lbs below the form showed by Binocular in winning the Ch. Hdle.

He is improving, he can jump better than he did. Of course he has to improve to beat Binocular and the Hurricane but he is likely to do so and he will then be quite close to them. In addition for the reasons so many have noted below,Binocualr, although brilliant, does not or has not run consistently. Of course he might turn that around, but there is a possibility he is one of those horses that is difficult to get spot on and stay spot on for very long. This is good for Menorah fans, as he is extremely tough genuine and consistent.

Fair point I guess and he was never really right last year up until the festival.

I was a bit irritated to read Tom Segal today in the weekender. He says he won't be backing Menorah because he thinks he will be vulnerable in a small field in the slowly run stakes races. its as if he read my post of 16th November - I am only joking, Tom has more than enough brains to have reached the same conclusion I did off his own bat I suppose.

Hi Geoff. I think your point about Khyber Kim representing good ante-post value at this stage is well worth making. If you could take Binocular out of last season's CH, we would have been heralding KK as a pretty impressive winner. And had there been a bit more cut in the ground, as you say, it could well have been closer between the front two (or, at least, Binocular might not have quickened away quite so easily at the end).

If you take the line that it took an exceptional performance from Binocular to beat KK in the CH last season, then the current odds on KK start to look a lot more attractive. KK's record last season was ultra-consistent. Binocular is by no means an inconsistent horse, but there has to be a question whether he could be that red hot again in a CH. Factoring in the possibility that Binocular won't get such favourable ground next March and that he might not be quite so exceptional in the renewal this time, the current odds available for KK have an obvious appeal.
A good run in the Bula would certainly see those odds cut sharply.

At 9, age is starting to go against him for the CH, but then he has been fairly lightly campaigned over hurdles and he is clearly a pretty robust animal if his impressive run at Aintree following his excellent performance in the CH is anything to go by. Holding him up seemed to make all the difference last season in terms of getting him to settle better in his races - he was almost indistinguishable from the hard pulling front runner that ran in the County Hurdle the previous season. The hold up tactics also worked in terms of enabling him to display a level of stamina many thought initially he possibly lacked. culminating in the win over 20f in the Aintree Hurdle. In fact, it wouldn't be the greatest surprise to see him campaigned over further than the minimum trip as he gets older.

My thoughts are that KK's limits were exposed in the CH last season, but given that it took an exceptional performance from a very classy horse to expose those limits, it still reflects very creditably on KK. I am not sure I can see a justification for Menorah's odds being significantly shorter than those for KK at this stage (though Menorah interests me) and Hurricane Fly is not much of an ante-post proposition given the difficulties in getting him to the Festival in the past. Even without seeing him run this season, I would have thought KK should be the obvious second favourite for the CH at this stage (though I certainly understand those who see a lot to admire in Hurricane Fly).

Binocular hurdles so slickly and quickens so well off a fast pace, though, he is a hell of a difficult horse to catch for any horse held up and tracking him for a late run. I think the opposition all have to hope the same Binocular doesn't turn up again.

Think he will win today aswell form just got a boost from Any Given Day however totally agree March will suit him better,dont think Nicene Creed will be quick enough to pace make.

Class.

Impressive enough. Beat two four year olds though and was receiving weight from the third horse, 4lb, who wants 20f. No dounting his credentials come March.

Cue Card comes out with immense credit.

That looked like a performance of a Champion Hurdler to me. Anything better than 4/1 is a bargain.

Acts on any going
has developed serious pace
stays well
likes Cheltenham

A very hgh class hurdler imo

Visually, it was a very taking display.  His gear change to slice through the battlers approaching the last was most impressive and, even more convincing, to my eye, as Johnson took a slight pull to balance him for a clean jump at the last he responded immediately, always a sign, I think, of a horse with plenty left in the tank.

Having said that, the pacemaker was ignored and it wasn't a strong test.  His Supreme victory was also off a moderate early pace.  His only attempt at 20f saw him soundly beaten and, despite the numerous claims that he's a stayer and wants a strong pace, there's no evidence for that yet and that makes 4/1 on the sort side in my opinion.

Nonetheless, he's a very exciting prospect and supporters of Binocular, Peddlers Cross and Hurricane Fly will sleep less easy in their beds until March brings the stern staying test that will find out if Menorah really has what it takes.

My one concern would be the standard of horses he has beaten. They are all last seasons novices, he has no form with most of the horses he will face in March. If Khyber Kim had run today it would have given us a clear form line.

Cue Card is an example of what may be visually impressive doesn't translate into the same thing when he stepped up in class. I think 4/1 is too short to back him.

I'm sorry aka but Hurricane Fly and Go Native have shown that turn of foot on most of his wins to date. Hurricane Fly even make the latter look a bit slow. So I think saying you'd be surprised if any other contenders could hold him is a bit of an over reaction.

It's a very competitive race this season and 4/1 about any horse is too short imv.

CVB, no question HF and GN have a turn of foot but Menorah went through those challengers today almost as though they were stationary and then immediately came back into Johnson's hands when steadied before going away again - very unusual thing to see, imo.

Nothing is wrong with it, he is a very good horse.

His only attempt at 20f saw him soundly beaten and, despite the numerous claims that he's a stayer and wants a strong pace, there's no evidence for that yet and that makes 4/1 on the sort side in my opinion

From my earlier post CV, you'll see I agree with the thrust of your argument, I just thought it worth questioning the comparison of the acceleration he showed today with that of the two you mentioned - a different context imo, in that he dispensed with them like third-raters today, steadied, then accelerated again, unlike the stoked up and sustained turn-of-foot typically shown by GN and HF.

I think the turn of foot Hurricane Fly and Go Naive have are different, Go Native has this burst of speed over 100 or so yards that he can deliver. While Hurricane Fly showed a similar turn of foot to Menorah in his Punchestown novice hurdle win. Basically when people think the pace is on, he shows another level of pace, like Menorah today. I think the only difference was the timing of the injection of pace. Menorah delivered it earlier today.

I wouldn't worry about a stronger pace "not" suiting menorah, today the pace maker was in a race of his own, the rest weren't going a strong gallop and menorah didn't travel as well as some of the others but still came through to win, an end to end gallop will get others in trouble earlier, i think he is a strong stayer over 2 and don't really bother about whether he gets 2 and a half or not.Does he have to get 2.5 to win a champion hurdle, no, he needs to get 2 miles well.