I wish the  old threads were not gone but I remember two seasons ago  discussing with budd how punjabi to place being twice binoculars odds to win was madness.  Given had he not fallen at kempton  how would have won  three grade 1.s in a row and be clear second favorite for the race given he was improving and only 6, and he has no form with the fav binocular.

This year I feel go native is the forgotten horse. 25/1 nrnb from laddies was a big bit of value and I know many people took it.

The more I delve into this horse's form, the more fascinating I find him.  Firstly, for your info, Alvarado, I have no bias against Menorah or any other horse.  I've loved NH racing for more than 40 years.  I'm intrigued by form analysis; for me it's a detective story where the one who interprets the clues correctly, ends up the hero, and a fair bit richer to boot.

All form analysis must be from a personal viewpoint.  If form interpretation was straightforward and consistent, there'd be no bookies.  I see a race or a horse differently from you - that's not to say either of us is more clever than the other, but I respect views which are well argued rather than those which  simply say, 'I love this horse, he's a cert for this that and the other'.

Anyway, for those who can't be bothered reading this lengthy analysis of Menorah's last four races, here's my summary view:  Menorah has a fine engine but the torque is more effective during a race than towards the end.  He's not confident at his hurdles and is probably slightly quirky, a characteristic which might get worse rather than better.  He's benefited from some fine tactical rides by Johnson but would probably improve for a rider who could instil more confidence in him at his hurdles.  He will go close in the Champion Hurdle, but will be beaten by something with a bit more heart, experience and confidence.

In my previous post, I reviewed Saturday's race from the CH4 coverage.  For the following, I used RUK, which offers, arguably, a clearer view for most of the race.

Stan James Hurdle, December 11th 2010

1st - SC flattens the hurdle, Menorah runs through the gap
2nd - Menorah, slightly awkward
3rd - Nods slightly, not a good jumping shape
4th - Am happy to give him the benefit of the doubt here.  On CH4 he looked like he brought down the panel with his hind legs; on RUK it looks like the horse to his right knocks it out with its front legs.  Cattermole attributes the mistake to Menorah but I won't argue with earlier posters here.
5th - jumps fluently
6th - jumps OK
7th - clips the top with front legs but OK
8th - jumps well

The visual impression live was that he sliced through his three main opponents on the run to the last. I believe now he hit top gear, and got a wonderful gap, at precisely the right time, just as the other three reached their optimum speed (they stayed abreast of each other for quite some time afterwards, enhancing the appearance of Menorah's acceleration, as well as the impression they had little more to give).  aka, I see tonight that Timeform describe his flat spot, just beforehand, as 'niggled along', and I'd happily settle for that.

As to his size/appearance, he is not small, as such, actually quite tall, but narrowish and a bit gangly (which might contribute to his numerous awkward jumps) and I think that if he grows right into his frame he will be a very fine specimen.


Greatwood Hurdle, November 14th 2010

1st - knocks the panel out with hind legs, awkward
2nd - skewed in the air, but clean enough
3rd -  Looks like he clips the top though viewing angle unclear
4th - fluent
5th - OK, but slight cat jump (almost lands on all four feet)
6th - flattens panel, barely takes off
7th - OK
8th - OK, stumbles after last but recovers really well

Throughout, he raced 6 horses wide of the runner up conceding significant ground though Hobbs said Johnson had walked the course and the ground was better on that route.


Aintree, 9th April 2010

1st - awkward head carriage and shape, hangs slightly on approach
2nd - clean jump despite a swerve on the approach
3rd -  bad viewing angle, but head carriage looked suspect once more
4th - fluent
5th - superb jump
6th - OK but hangs slightly
7th - cat jump, hits panel
8th - OK
9th - OK

He must have traded very short coming away from the last, but he gives in quite tamely to a hard driven General Miller.  This might be a hangover from his Supreme victory but he'd travelled strongly throughout, his action looking well suited to track and ground; he showed no obvious signs of being jaded, though I cannot discount the possibility he was feeling the effects of Cheltenham.  This race was run at a pretty good gallop and, for me, it strengthened my suspicion that he might not quite see a race out at full championship pace.


Supreme Novices, 16th March

1st - OK
2nd - slight cat jump
3rd - OK, but runs around on approach
4th - OK but runs around on approach
5th - fluent
6th - **** his head left and clips top with front legs
7th - jinks very noticeably both left and right (commentators blame the horse alongside him for being slighlty wayward but his movement is nothing compared to Menorah's, and it adds to my belief that Menorah is very nervous on his approach to hurdles)
8th - jinks again on approach though not so badly

The time of the race is described by Mellish as "bang on good ground time" and for me the race is won by Johnson kicking for home on the turn in and getting first run on Get me out of Here who would very likely have won in another fifty yards, cutting Menorah down in much the same style as GM was to do at Aintree.


The RUK team are consistently effusive in their praise of Menorah's jumping, but that is a lazy assumption based on the occasional fine leap he puts in. The reality, imo, is that the horse seems less than confident, often awkward in the few strides before he jumps as though not quite knowing how to put himself right, leading to what looks like a degree of panic, causing him to hang, carry his head high and guess a bit. 

On the positive side, it says an awful lot for his engine that he has achieved his current level with such an inconsistent and generally poor technique.  Unfortunately, it significantly increases the chances of a fall.

He travels very well in his races yet sometimes gives the impression that he slightly runs in snatches - not in the conventional way - being pushed along for a furlong or so - but more in a manner that he seems to drift on and off the bridle within a dozen strides.

It's beyond question that Menorah has considerable talent, and it might well be that he will learn to travel more smoothly (thus conserving energy for the finish), and jump with greater confidence.  But if Hobbs sticks to his plan ("I'm 85% certain he won't run again before Cheltenham"), then he will deprive the horse of much needed experience and it could well cost him the big race.

On the balance of what I've seen, I think he will almost certainly travel better, less 'snatchy' in a fast-run CH, but I doubt his hurdling will improve for it and a race-losing error at a critical point is a real possibility, imo.  The better the ground, the stronger the chance that something will go past him on the run to the line.  Softish conditions will add considerably to his chances by blunting the speed of Binocular.  In a battle with the tenacious Peddlers Cross, I doubt he'll have the heart to beat McCain's horse.

In conclusion, given his form (unproven against hardened CH performers), his hurdling technique and the quirks I suspect he has, I consider him very poor value indeed at 7/2 but I'm looking forward with excitement to see just how high he can go in this sphere.

what the hell are you on steeple seriously quirks what quirks watch the greatwood again mate and the supreme the horse has got a tremondous attitude  and i really dont know where u get that he cant jump from this is beyond belif

A succinct analysis WOSO, which Alvarado, for one, agrees with

Al, if you don't mind me calling you that, if you stop seething for five minutes and take the time to read through my posts on this thread, you will see that I like the horse an awful lot: he's a very fine horse: he's a major player in the CH:  The only point I am trying to make is that he is lousy value at 7/2.  He's a horse.  You're a person (I think). Why are you taking it all so personally?

Their are unknowns,particularly re other horses that will line up,a lot to play their hands yet.
Current price on Menorah is too short.

Excellent post Steeple and one with which I would concur wholeheartedly. I have also been impressed with Menorah this season. I did actually back him in SN in March but was also concerned, in respect of this season, regarding his hurdling technique and what I also perceived as possible quirks, particularly at the last two hurdles where I thought he was possibly looking like running out. I am prepared to accept your more generous assessment that he lacks confidence and panics at the approach to his hurdles and indeed that seems more likely as he has looked thoroughly genuine this season.

Well i for one am not saying i werent impressed with him Saturday,i was very much and wish i had backed him at start of the season, as being a fan of him last season,i should have!!
Think it fair to say though that people are allowed to examine him closely and discuss any flaws he may have,especially as he is now a pretty short price in what looks a real competitive race shaping up.

As Buddeliea says, it's clear that Steeplechasing has done his homework on this and I'm inclined to agree with him on many counts. I've watched Menorah closely and I wouldn't underestimate his battling qualities and I'd disagree with you about Peddlers Cross finding more 'heart' in a finish. He's been tested more than PC who's managed to master a notoriously weak finisher in Starluck (he's all speed and little stamina) and he's got more questions to answer than Menorah on that score. There's probably only Solwhit in the field as tough as him. Maybe SC raises a decent point about his 'crunch-time' hurdling technique, possibly proving crucial, though I don't see this as big an issue over hurdles as fences. When Edredon Bleu won his Champion Chase, he faced a slightly superior rival in Flagship Uberalles, but he always looked the type to lose a length or two (at least) negotiating the last two fences, whereas Edredon Bleu's  impeccable fencing was always likely to give him an advantage at those critical points. Ultimately, that as well as his grit won the day.

MENORAH = best jumper of a hurdle EVER!

Alvarado has never seen a video of Night Nurse(nap)

Or he is around nineteen years of age and knows no different

PF - I said top-class

PF - I know that buddy but his rating was due to his proximity to Istabraq - he couldn't even get him off the bridle and a literal interpretation has greatly flattered him with an inflated rating, better than most Champion Hurdlers which is mind-boggling. Nevertheless he was a smashing horse and it was very sad that we never saw him get the opportunity to make an even better chaser. Anyhow, at least you've named ONE that regularly ballsed up and if he could have hurdled, Charlie Swan might have needed his whip

how do you kow they would of done the same hurricane fly just continues to beat solwhit ,knowone knows when binocular will turn up and peddlers was all out to b eat starluck hardly bombprof are there

Go Native out for the season

Good stuff aka, and some nice counter-points to my earlier interpretation.  It's not so much the cold form analysis that attracts me to NH racing it's that intuitive insight you sometimes get as you watch a horse throughout a race, that instinct which can make you feel you've found a piece of the puzzle no one else has yet spotted.

I've been wrong plenty times, but correct often enough to keep me trying to refine it.

Something we are all fortunate in is having such a unique course as Cheltenham to test our theories about potential champions.  If the festival took place at any other track, the festival forums would be lonely places.

Each year the festival's dominance of the season grows. Every other graded race is simply regarded as a Cheltenham trial and more good horses make fewer appearances - probably not a good thing in the long term; sponsors certainly won't be impressed.  Anyway, let's hope we can continue mining for clues for many years to come.

He was cut from 12/1 to 4/1 after the bula win. Was a win over those two horses worthy of a price cut of that size?

Especially as AP mentioned the 10l proximity of 5th Crystal Bonus. Implying that the race wasn't that hot a trial.

I think most will agree there is no ap value in 4/1 as if he goes straight to chelts then he will drift to at least 6/1 if Binocular, Hurricane Fly and Peddlers all win their trials in the next 5 weeks.

That's right, the price initially after the Bula was too short and has now drifted back, on here at least, to nearer what I would see as the true odds at this stage. Anything under 6 still looks a bit short, but we know these markets embellish the need for a favourite to emerge.

I guess the fairly close proximity of Cystal Bonus was a reflection of the comparatively modest pace in the Bula. And, as I was suggesting, Menorah is perhaps not one to extend a lead by very far when hitting the front with a fair way still to run. On a sounder surface and off a faster pace, Menorah possibly would have seen off horses like Bothy with greater ease in the Greatwood.

Nevertheless, I agree that if you just look at the bare form, there is scope for picking holes in what Menorah has achieved quite legitimately. That gets us back to the discussion we were having earlier about just how much weight to give to bare form, which is always open to interpretation, against other measures of a horses ability and potential.

I am not yet entirely sold on Menorah, but I am impressed by the relative ease with which he gets into contention in his races. It is how he pulls himself to the front so readily two or three out that I like the look of. He appears to have a very high cruising speed (not perfect, as he has been niggled along briefly at least a couple of times in his runs so far)and when he does get his hurdling right he makes quite a lot of ground. How he finishes his races is not quite so impressive perhaps, though he battled quite well in the Greatwood and he did show some turn of foot, albeit possibly against slower horses, in the Bula. But he looks as if he might be vulnerable if in front too long in the closing stages. If I was backing Menorah, I would prefer to see him swoop slightly later and be drawn into the finish by those in front.

aka,have seen nowt wrong with the way he has finished his races thus far,and he seems to be getting stronger and speedier with the expected improvement.Aintree he was caught,but Aintree may have been after he peaked for the season,as is often the case.

One thing we might be overlooking here is that, in the assumed absence of Celestial Halo, where is the pace going to come from?  I cannot see any among the first ten in the betting who'd relish a front-running role.

Even with a couple of pacemakers thrown in, I've noticed an increasing inclination among riders of key contenders, especially in Ireland, to ignore big-priced pacesetters and pay more attention to sticking close to perceived major rivals.

After a couple of thousand words of speculation on how such and such might last in an end-to-end gallop, we might end up with a sprint from two out!

steeple, overturn making the pace with peddlers and silviniaco in behind?