Menorah

Oh I'm not knocking Menorah, I'm saying he is a very good horse Steeple. But 4/1 is too short when he has not faced most of the rivals he'll face in March. Are the horses he beat today actually all that good? We don't know.

Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Peddlers Cross, Go Native, Khyber Kim. He hasn't faced them so I couldn't back him at 4/1. That's all I'm saying.

His only attempt at 20f saw him soundly beaten and, despite the numerous claims that he's a stayer and wants a strong pace, there's no evidence for that yet and that makes 4/1 on the sort side in my opinion

From my earlier post CV, you'll see I agree with the thrust of your argument, I just thought it worth questioning the comparison of the acceleration he showed today with that of the two you mentioned - a different context imo, in that he dispensed with them like third-raters today, steadied, then accelerated again, unlike the stoked up and sustained turn-of-foot typically shown by GN and HF.

Very good horse, but outpaced 2 20f horses imo. Go Native/HF/Bino can all quicken like that imv.

I think the turn of foot Hurricane Fly and Go Naive have are different, Go Native has this burst of speed over 100 or so yards that he can deliver. While Hurricane Fly showed a similar turn of foot to Menorah in his Punchestown novice hurdle win. Basically when people think the pace is on, he shows another level of pace, like Menorah today. I think the only difference was the timing of the injection of pace. Menorah delivered it earlier today.

Don't think he really had to improve to win today - never saw the Nicholls horse as a Champion Hurdler contender and Cue Card had never been off the bridle before. He is a leading candidate for sure and has a cracking attitude but it's wide open and with most of the Irish contenders not seeing a racecourse yet this season there is no need to be getting involved at 4/1 yet.

I wouldn't worry about a stronger pace "not" suiting menorah, today the pace maker was in a race of his own, the rest weren't going a strong gallop and menorah didn't travel as well as some of the others but still came through to win, an end to end gallop will get others in trouble earlier, i think he is a strong stayer over 2 and don't really bother about whether he gets 2 and a half or not.Does he have to get 2.5 to win a champion hurdle, no, he needs to get 2 miles well.

Steeple wrote: "he dispensed with them like third-raters today, steadied, then accelerated again, unlike the stoked up and sustained turn-of-foot typically shown by GN and HF".

I think that pinpoints well what was so impressive about Menorah today. We have seen him win battling his way to the line conceding weight in the Greatwood; we have seen him win the SN with a more sustained burst of speed not unlike that shown by GN when he won the SN. But I think we saw a different and even more impressive aspect of Menorah today - he accelerated very quickly over a short distance to make up ground and go past the others, and then after steadying and losing some momentum taking the final hurdle, he accelerated again up the hill. I wasn't expecting to see that from Menorah, and it is not something you see that often even among high class horses. The horse has an awful lot in his armoury on the evidence of his three somewhat contrasting winning runs at Cheltenham. He has shown the lot, basically, other than the key point that he has yet to compete in a race where the pace profile matches that typical of a CH. In March, he will likely find the early pace much more demanding than he has encountered previously.

a faster pace we,ll see a 10lb better menorah

roll on champion hurdle

i banged on about this horse last season for the supreme against all the Dunguib supporters,kept sticking up for him,and had a brilliant start to the festival.
Have i backed him for the CH? nope!! i am seriously kicking myself,had a look during the summer and just did not press the button on here.Kept thinking i should back him,and never did.
Now look!! oh well,i have PCross at nice price,but god do i wish i had Menorah as well,big big chance.Has it all for a CHurdler imo
Cant have current price though,but if he lines up on the day,he will be on my side.

Yes I don't see the pace of a champion hurdle making the slightest difference to Menorah now.

What we were concerned about before his race yesterday was whether he would be anywhere near as effective in a smaller field where there was no pace as he seemed to just love a battle and need a test in the Greatwood Hurdle. Now he has simply sprinted away from them off a slow pace ir seems almost perverse to wuestionn wherther he would be as good in a faster run race.

More sensible is the question "what did he beat". The Nicholls horse looked very useful beating Zaynar, but he (Zaynar) seemed to be barking pretty loudly that day. Cue Card is a novice, albeit a pretty high class novice.

However the main form to go on may not be yesterday but his win in the Greatwood Hurdle, when he conceded all that weight to a huge field and battled off Bothy conceding about half a ton. The Racing Post rated Menorah 165 for that run and that was achieved on ground that he disliked and in a race that he was stuck out wide all the way so he is likely to be better than that. the Champion Hurdler, Binocular has run ratings in the 170'as only twice in his substantial career, and seems not entirely trustworthy, looking at his overall record. Peddlar's Cross' best ever effort was rated 163, and you just see him as a high class sitting duck foir Menorah at Cheltenham. Hurricane Fly's best ever effort is 164, not as good as Menorah and he seems unlikely to have the same scope for improvement.

I thought Menorah's Greatwood Hurdle win was top class at the time and of Champion Hurdle winning quality. The class he showed when really quickening without being asked a serious question just confirmed how much he has improved and how much serious class he seems to now have.

I think the concern about Menorah as far as a small field race was  concerned was whether he would settle well off a slower pace with limited cover. Failing to settle well was the issue the trainer/jockey often referred to during Menorah's novice season. He settled well in the SN and has continued to show greater mental maturity this season.

I don't think there was any strong suggestion Menorah needed a fast pace to be at his best, other than the issue of settling the horse.

He generally travels so well and clearly can battle well, that you would imagine the faster early pace of the CH would hold no problems for him. But I would never take that for granted, how ever impressed I am by a horse (and I am very impressed by much of what Menorah has shown).

I wrote in the summer that I though Menorah was the only horse with the right mix of ability, if he continued to settle better in his races, to lay down an effective challenge to a top form Binocular on better ground. Binocular has achieved more on the clock than Menorah and proved in the renewal of the CH last season that he can withstand the strong early pace of a high quality championship race and still deliver a strong finishing kick. Menorah still has to prove he can do the same and the significance of that shouldn't be underestimated, imo.

Nevertheless, at the prices available before the start of the season. there was far more value to be had in backing Menorah's potential than in backing Binocular's proven class. Menorah is starting to show even more than I had expected and I have been very keen on him since his first run in novice company.

Despite the very classy impression he made yesterday, he did beat young pretenders whose merit in the top grade remains questionable, especially given the 4lbs SC was trying to concede the winner.

The relative proximity of Clerk's Choice, as I've mentioned elsewhere, raises further questions.  If yesterday's race is to be considered close to Champion Hurdle class (and 7/2 Menorah suggests a strong general belief that it does), then Clerk's Choice cannot possibly be an 80/1 chance.  Of the first four, he is the only one who not only handles an end-to-end gallop on the track, but relishes it. Given decent ground and a very hot pace, he'd easily be the value, for me, from yesterday's quartet.

What seems to be forgotten is that while Menorah beat some youngsters of unknown potential, Peddlers Cross beat the reigning Champion Hurdler with considerable aplomb at Newbury.  Granted, Binocular might not have been at his best, but, of the two races, which has produced the strongest form?

I agree with you Steeple. I think 7/2 quotes are an over reaction given there is zero form between those runners in the bula and the main contenders they will face in March.

I'd agree Peddlers form would be the better of the two, but fto against a Binocular that looked to blow up after the last isn't enough for 6/1 quotes either.

Over reaction to both performances imv. I'm wondering if we'll get a good trial in England before March. Peddlers Binocular rematch at Haydock in January possibly ?

honestly people banging on about this 4lb he recieved from SC honestly he could of given him 14lb and still thrashed him hes been so good this season and he deserves his place as market leader for the CH

Do you not think it's fair to say quotes of 7/2 are a bit skinny given he has no form with Binocular, Peddlers Cross, Khyber Kim, Hurricane Fly, Go Native or Solwhit all the rivals he'll face in March.

In fact is there any horse other than Silvicanio Conti and possibly Dunguib who he has beaten who he will face in March?

I would say it is a skinny price on whatever measure. It is certainly very short in terms of conventional form analysis. The price is a little more understandable in terms of what a good visual impression Menorah has made in his three winning runs at Cheltenham, and the degree of versatility he has show in winning those races. But even so, the price is too short at this stage in relation to the high standard Binocular and KK set in the renewal last season and in terms of there being some other contenders this year who have yet to show their hand.

I certainly wouldn't advocate ignoring conventional form analysis. But equally how many CH trials in recent years have proved a really good guide to what is likely to happen on the day in the CH? As far as I recall there wasn't a lot in Hardy Eustace's form before Cheltenham that would have marked him out as the most likely winner of the race. Katchit and Sublimity certainly weren't the form picks, and Punjabi definitely wasn't. Brave Inca could look less than impressive in some of his trials. And what about Binocular's form going into the CH last season?

You may need to keep one eye in the form book, but goodness you need the other one looking in the opposite direction entirely if you are going to spot the winner of this race if recent winners are any guide.

With Hardy Eustace, I meant his form in the trials each season leading up to the Festival.

Well Katchit had an exceptional record at Cheltenham. He also had to give weight to Osana and was off a short breat from the Fighting Fifth when beaten in the bula.

Punjabi was one of those you had to accept he would have been going for the million bonus if not falling at Kempton and Henderson said he needed the Kingwell to get fit.

Binocular was impossible to pick. I even layed out of my bet on him after his win over Dee Ee Williams.

Sublimity I didn't give a chance at all. Inca was easy enough he was on fire and Hardy's 2nd he was fav and Champ. His first caught me by surprise too.

aka ... the Irish trials are often run on slow ground not at all representative of Festival ground and are used to get the main contenders there fit, already we have W Mullins suggesting same again he just wants to get Hurricane Fly there on the day ready. What is a v good indicator is obviously Cheltenham form even though it may be a year old, Brave Inca 2nd in the Supreme for example. Sublimity was hidden under a bushell that wont be happening this season the leading contenders are not on the decline as that year, quite the opposite they are on the up. If you have an impressive Cheltenham trial winner virtually over the trip you have something valuable however bearing in mind Binocular wont be readied until the time I believe Menorah and Binocular should be jt favourites as they are similar style and think Henderson will have him spot on.

Yes, it was Hardy Eustace's form in the seasonal trials more than his Cheltenham Festival form I was thinking of, as with Katchit.

Punjabi was an odd one. There was enough in his earlier form that season, I would have thought, to have supported his price in the CH market much better than proved to be the case after falling at Kempton and running poorly in the Kingwell. Still hard to believe he was being matched at 40s and higher on here just before the race.

Think Punjabi's CHurdle (posted up shortly after the race on here) was poor with Binocular way below his best. Katchit also, a couple of poor years there. This seasons is a high class race of that there is little doubt and course and virtual distance wins show who will be up there imo especially from an impressive Supreme winner.

Hard to believe aka but as I said back then the 44's offerend on here on Monday night were insulting. Anyway one mans loss is anothers gain.

Feels like year on year the 2mile hurdle ranks are getting better and better.

Re Sublimity.

If you looked at the previous Supreme you would have noticed him finishing fairly close up 4th after getting hampered quiet badly coming down the hill.He may well have won the race had that not happened,and would not have been 220 on here the start of his CH season.Sometimes they can be spotted,and i always keep festival on tape for the following year,never know it might happen again!!

Yes, there were clues to Sublimity. The one you mention, Budd, some of the noises from good sources in Ireland, the horse's quite good flat rating, an understanding of where things were with the horse's fitness and health.

Though, of course, none of those clues could be gleaned from the CH trials that season. It can be a bit of quandary. You can't afford to ignore the trials and need to study the form of those races carefully, but in doing so it perhaps easy (certainly for me) to become too honed in on that type of analysis and in the process miss some clues that are floating around in different spheres altogether.

Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Binocular (in 2009), and arguably Go Native last March(or maybe KK), were the form picks from the seasonal trials in the last four renewals, and not one a winner.

Its always tricky re form during the season,as horses for the CH are trained to peak on that day.Plus a lot dont run against each other till the race.One of the reasons why we love Cheltenham i think,its bl00dy difficult but very satisfying when working it out with success.

aka Go Native got injured in the champion and so did Sizing Europe in his year. So you can forgive yourself  if you backed either.

Punjabi and Katchit were perfectly goods e/w bets based on their form.

Sublimity was tricky, but could have been a vase made for backing him ew as budd says. Inca and Hardy were simple before that.

Millhouse - I agree with what you wrote about extreme hold-up tactics but only now, with the benefit of watching the Bula! I would have agreed that he'd improve (before the race) but to THAT extent, then NO! He looked a different horse to me (and it seems to Hobbs as well) and W/D Sir - hope you filled your boots

I watched the race again a few times. I think Menorah is a strong lay now. Despite the very positive visual impression, he rapped most hurdles with his hind legs, taking a panel out at least once.  He hung on the approach to several hurdles. The last was his cleanest jump.  Also,as the front three battled on the turn in, Menorah was scrubbed along for a few strides before picking up just as the gap came. I think a hot pace could easily find him out.

He's quite lightly made too and might well be muscled out of it if things get rough as they often do.  Finally, his trainer seemed surprised by the turn of foot - not a good sign imo.

I have serious doubts about what he beat in that race. A horse bred for 2 1/2 miles and a very very green novice 4yo on his 5th start of his career.

I won't doubt him again - he's made me look foolish enough. Steeplechasing - I think strong lay is a bit harsh.....he looks a bona fide contender.

I wouldn't be confident about Menorah's chances on faster ground at all, even in last years Supreme he was jinking around a bit at the last two flights and i would say he needs it more like saturday where it was about right for him

Steeplechasing - I think strong lay is a bit harsh.....he looks a bona fide contender.

He's a bona fide contender alright, but no 7/2 chance, far from it imo, which makes him a strong lay.

i think steeplechasing as been sipping back on a couple of bottles of vodka before you watched it back.cos i have never heard so much rubbish its a joke he is arguably the best jumper of a hurdle you,ve ever seen he is electric he was taking lenghts out of them at every hurdle.he travelled beautifully all the way you knob and did not hang once i think youre looking to slate him because u done your money on him or ur on peddlers cross/binocular and that performance scared the sh it out of you.what more can the horse do to please people like you he has just thrashed to soo called wonder horses fair and square and he made them look like selling platers trust me this horse will be a 10lb better horse on genuine good ground off a really fast pace and horses good enough to give him a lead to the last unlike sat race.

He is a tip top hurdler hes got everything and he is only 5 brillant horse

Steeplechasing - fair point then, as regards an ante-post proposition but I make a point of remembering when I've been stung - he's a top horse. PS - are you still cutting & pasting?
Alvarado - he dared to disagree with you? You just couldn't resist calling him 'a knob' could you? FWIW, I don't think the ground's an issue with Menorah at all, but 10lb improvement? Who's on the sauce did you say?

we,ll see he basically made up loads of rubbish or dosent know anything about racing cos even a blind man can see how well the horse jumps and the way he demolished those good horses on sat was a brillant performance if cue card had done that everyone would be hailing a superstar and know would be knocking the form

Alvarado,
he did rap a couple of hurdles and did indeed knock one right over,so he aint the best jumper you will ever see,although as he showed at the last he also can jump them well.
He is a major player though.

Zilkal - that is an interesting point about the ground with Menorah. The trainer says the horse is better on good ground, though that certainly doesn't mean the trainer has it right. Is it that you think he might not act as well on drier ground or that his strengths are better served by good to soft going (or maybe both)? It is an interesting angle to discuss, I think.

CV - good points. There were certainly some clues in the form study from the seasonal trials that would have helped, though I think I would still want to maintain that a literal reading of the form would more likely have pointed you in the wrong direction in finding the winners as opposed to the other place horses (albeit accepting a degree of bad luck for backers of Sizing Europe particularly). A win acca on the last four winners at SP would have been settled at a little over 40,000/1 - a return conventional form analysis, on its own, is just not geared up to deliver, or else the bookies would be working for us and not the reverse.

If you throw in Hardy Eustace's two wins, for a sixfold win acca the return would be over 7 million to one. In other words, you would have a far better chance of winning the scoop 6 most weeks with one dart than picking those six winners of the CH, despite the amount of form study that is lavished on the big race and the high quality of the form that is being analysed.

It is a dilemma. Conventional form study is one of the few tools we have as punters, but it is such a double-edge sword and, arguably, it often proves much more the friend of the bookie than the punter, even in the hands of skilled form readers.

I often think form study, rather like trends study, needs to know its place. If it is allowed too much influence when making judgements about horses, it becomes the snake that bites you. How you keep it in its place and not be over-influenced by it, when it is such an important tool for the punter, is an issue we all struggle with I guess.

HE DID NOT KNOCK ANY HURDLES WATCH IT BACK AGAIN AND JUST WATCH MENORAH ALL THE WAY ROUND

aka ... interesting points, for me antepost is not about form reading, not about after-timing ratings, it is about experience of spotting an exceptional facet of a horse and instinctively projecting that ability into the future with regards antepost races. By the time the ratings boys have been there it is too late for antepost punters looking for a future Champion. It is your job to spot them, let the ratings boys wait until AFTER the race.

When someone starts quoting ratings on here with regards a horses FUTURE target under the all important conditions of that target or giving you their hand-timed blah blah I ignore it.

Just watched it again Alvarado.
He never really made a mistake,he did make contact with the top of a couple but not badly enough to effect his rhythm and did not plough through any.The one i thought he knocked over was in fact the horse next to him.

My apologies.

Steeple - your post of 10.00 today. I think you raise some very interesting and worthwhile points to discuss there. I probably still see more points for Menorah than against him at this stage and having reviewed the race on Saturday several times.

I had some small concerns about his hurdling before the Bula and that remains the case now. How do you think he hurdled in the SN and the Aintree races? Those were probably the two quickest run races he has encountered, though he has yet to encounter a really strong end-to-end gallop comparable with that likely in the CH. His highest TS run was at Aintree. Do you think a stronger pace might see his hurdling in a better light, or are we talking about more fundamental problems in hurdling technique here?

You always worry about the lighter frame ones fighting for position and handling the hustle and bustle of a bigger field, though more so in chases possibly where pinching the right take off spot is so important for the jumping. There have been quite a few small ones among the recent CH winners though, including Binocular, Punjabi, and Katchit, all perhaps slightly smaller than Menorah. And the smaller ones often have the advantage of being that bit more nimble and quick footed to either avoid trouble in running or else recover well if momentum is lost through being baulked or finding a gap closed off.

The point about momentarily being scrubbed along (or would it be better described as shaken up, if that is not too fine a distinction) on the turn in, is interesting to analyse I think. Did the other two who were in front at that point just have the benefit of first run there, understandably leaving Menorah slightly outpaced for a few strides as he adjusted to what was happening in front, or do you think the horse might be one who has gears, but perhaps takes a little more time to access those higher gears than is ideal in the context of a fast run CH?

Do you see any comparisons/contrasts between what you describe with Menorah being scrubbed along momentarily on Saturday and PC being shaken up by his jockey coming around the home turn in the Neptune, before eventually finding his stride and powering on strongly up the hill to win that race? Both horses ran on impressively on the run in after getting a wake up call from their respective jockeys.

I thought there was a twinkle in the trainer's eye when he said he didn't think Menorah had such a turn of foot. I maybe wrong about that, but he doesn't wear that hat for nothing, I would say (he keeps plenty under it!)

I like the way Menorah keeps finding a way to win in somewhat contrasting circumstances and would give him some credit for not being significantly outpaced at any stage on a pretty good surface in the SN. I accept the SN wasn't run at the same end-to-end gallop as the CH, but all the same, when the pace picked up in the SN and came closer to the pace they go in the CH, Menorah withstood the test pretty well.

To summarise, the hurdling is a niggling concern for me; the idea that he might be vulnerable to being outpaced I would want to think more about - it warrants serious consideration; the fact he hasn't yet posted a really competitive Grade 1 time, does need factoring into his current price for the CH. He may well have no problem coping with a a really strong end-to-end gallop on the day, but we don't know that at this stage, unlike Binocular and KK who are proven under those conditions.

Marginally, I have a better gut feeling for Menorah than PC at this stage, though I see a great deal to like in both horses.

yep i too think with the trainer being surprised by the turn of foot he showed that we may have been looking at this horse from the wrong viewpoint.They never went a strong gallop and he produced a turn of foot...with the way the race was run we should have been seeing him plugging on behind what we perceived to be speedier types with hobbs bemoaning the lack of pace.It may be that the next time a pace maker is employed the instructions will be "stack them up"

aka I need form lines with most of the runners to back any favourite in a champion hurdle and I need to be satisfied that the horses he beat were near their best.

So for me, Peddlers Cross has beaten starluck and an unfit binocular.

Menorah has beaten only one horse who will be opposing him again in March.

These two are unbackable at current odds given what they have beaten. You need to always look at things from the perspective of knocking what the horse has beat and then if this proves difficult then you may have the contender on your hands.

I believe it is vital to have form with most of the horses your selection will face especially  if he is short priced. As the race is littered with favs beaten by  horses they are facing for the first time.

As I said last year was an odd one, with the fav getting injured in the race to boot.

Punjabi had every right to beat CH and Binocular as he had no form with them

Katchit to turn around form with Osana given he was back on the old course, off levels and fresh. Sizing may have beaten both though.

Sublimity and Brave Inca to beat Detroit city.

Inca had confirmed himself the best of the irish, England had no good hurdlers.

Hardy was champ and had a great record at Cheltenham.

You need to know if your horse is worthy if his price given the opposition he will face, not given how good he looked in his trials beating horses he won't face in march.

Yes, might try and put Kinkeel in there as a pacemaker next time.

It will be interesting to see what Mordin makes of the race. I seem to recall he was of the view that Menorah out speeded them more than out stayed them in the SN.

it'll be no bet then

I wish the  old threads were not gone but I remember two seasons ago  discussing with budd how punjabi to place being twice binoculars odds to win was madness.  Given had he not fallen at kempton  how would have won  three grade 1.s in a row and be clear second favorite for the race given he was improving and only 6, and he has no form with the fav binocular.

This year I feel go native is the forgotten horse. 25/1 nrnb from laddies was a big bit of value and I know many people took it.

no worries mate when i was actually watching it live i thought he knocked one flat but then watched it again and as u say it was the horse behind him

The more I delve into this horse's form, the more fascinating I find him.  Firstly, for your info, Alvarado, I have no bias against Menorah or any other horse.  I've loved NH racing for more than 40 years.  I'm intrigued by form analysis; for me it's a detective story where the one who interprets the clues correctly, ends up the hero, and a fair bit richer to boot.

All form analysis must be from a personal viewpoint.  If form interpretation was straightforward and consistent, there'd be no bookies.  I see a race or a horse differently from you - that's not to say either of us is more clever than the other, but I respect views which are well argued rather than those which  simply say, 'I love this horse, he's a cert for this that and the other'.

Anyway, for those who can't be bothered reading this lengthy analysis of Menorah's last four races, here's my summary view:  Menorah has a fine engine but the torque is more effective during a race than towards the end.  He's not confident at his hurdles and is probably slightly quirky, a characteristic which might get worse rather than better.  He's benefited from some fine tactical rides by Johnson but would probably improve for a rider who could instil more confidence in him at his hurdles.  He will go close in the Champion Hurdle, but will be beaten by something with a bit more heart, experience and confidence.

In my previous post, I reviewed Saturday's race from the CH4 coverage.  For the following, I used RUK, which offers, arguably, a clearer view for most of the race.

Stan James Hurdle, December 11th 2010

1st - SC flattens the hurdle, Menorah runs through the gap
2nd - Menorah, slightly awkward
3rd - Nods slightly, not a good jumping shape
4th - Am happy to give him the benefit of the doubt here.  On CH4 he looked like he brought down the panel with his hind legs; on RUK it looks like the horse to his right knocks it out with its front legs.  Cattermole attributes the mistake to Menorah but I won't argue with earlier posters here.
5th - jumps fluently
6th - jumps OK
7th - clips the top with front legs but OK
8th - jumps well

The visual impression live was that he sliced through his three main opponents on the run to the last. I believe now he hit top gear, and got a wonderful gap, at precisely the right time, just as the other three reached their optimum speed (they stayed abreast of each other for quite some time afterwards, enhancing the appearance of Menorah's acceleration, as well as the impression they had little more to give).  aka, I see tonight that Timeform describe his flat spot, just beforehand, as 'niggled along', and I'd happily settle for that.

As to his size/appearance, he is not small, as such, actually quite tall, but narrowish and a bit gangly (which might contribute to his numerous awkward jumps) and I think that if he grows right into his frame he will be a very fine specimen.


Greatwood Hurdle, November 14th 2010

1st - knocks the panel out with hind legs, awkward
2nd - skewed in the air, but clean enough
3rd -  Looks like he clips the top though viewing angle unclear
4th - fluent
5th - OK, but slight cat jump (almost lands on all four feet)
6th - flattens panel, barely takes off
7th - OK
8th - OK, stumbles after last but recovers really well

Throughout, he raced 6 horses wide of the runner up conceding significant ground though Hobbs said Johnson had walked the course and the ground was better on that route.


Aintree, 9th April 2010

1st - awkward head carriage and shape, hangs slightly on approach
2nd - clean jump despite a swerve on the approach
3rd -  bad viewing angle, but head carriage looked suspect once more
4th - fluent
5th - superb jump
6th - OK but hangs slightly
7th - cat jump, hits panel
8th - OK
9th - OK

He must have traded very short coming away from the last, but he gives in quite tamely to a hard driven General Miller.  This might be a hangover from his Supreme victory but he'd travelled strongly throughout, his action looking well suited to track and ground; he showed no obvious signs of being jaded, though I cannot discount the possibility he was feeling the effects of Cheltenham.  This race was run at a pretty good gallop and, for me, it strengthened my suspicion that he might not quite see a race out at full championship pace.


Supreme Novices, 16th March

1st - OK
2nd - slight cat jump
3rd - OK, but runs around on approach
4th - OK but runs around on approach
5th - fluent
6th - **** his head left and clips top with front legs
7th - jinks very noticeably both left and right (commentators blame the horse alongside him for being slighlty wayward but his movement is nothing compared to Menorah's, and it adds to my belief that Menorah is very nervous on his approach to hurdles)
8th - jinks again on approach though not so badly

The time of the race is described by Mellish as "bang on good ground time" and for me the race is won by Johnson kicking for home on the turn in and getting first run on Get me out of Here who would very likely have won in another fifty yards, cutting Menorah down in much the same style as GM was to do at Aintree.


The RUK team are consistently effusive in their praise of Menorah's jumping, but that is a lazy assumption based on the occasional fine leap he puts in. The reality, imo, is that the horse seems less than confident, often awkward in the few strides before he jumps as though not quite knowing how to put himself right, leading to what looks like a degree of panic, causing him to hang, carry his head high and guess a bit. 

On the positive side, it says an awful lot for his engine that he has achieved his current level with such an inconsistent and generally poor technique.  Unfortunately, it significantly increases the chances of a fall.

He travels very well in his races yet sometimes gives the impression that he slightly runs in snatches - not in the conventional way - being pushed along for a furlong or so - but more in a manner that he seems to drift on and off the bridle within a dozen strides.

It's beyond question that Menorah has considerable talent, and it might well be that he will learn to travel more smoothly (thus conserving energy for the finish), and jump with greater confidence.  But if Hobbs sticks to his plan ("I'm 85% certain he won't run again before Cheltenham"), then he will deprive the horse of much needed experience and it could well cost him the big race.

On the balance of what I've seen, I think he will almost certainly travel better, less 'snatchy' in a fast-run CH, but I doubt his hurdling will improve for it and a race-losing error at a critical point is a real possibility, imo.  The better the ground, the stronger the chance that something will go past him on the run to the line.  Softish conditions will add considerably to his chances by blunting the speed of Binocular.  In a battle with the tenacious Peddlers Cross, I doubt he'll have the heart to beat McCain's horse.

In conclusion, given his form (unproven against hardened CH performers), his hurdling technique and the quirks I suspect he has, I consider him very poor value indeed at 7/2 but I'm looking forward with excitement to see just how high he can go in this sphere.

Good piece Steeple. This Champion Hurdle looks a real puzzler, one that maybe won't be solved  until we see the time of a truly run Supreme around a hour and a bit earlier as i believe the ground will be the key to most of these in March, i think you remember we had a discussion about shorter priced things at the festival and how the ROI differed from ordinary meetings because of the Herd factor.

Im a bit disappointed tbh about the alarming trend that seems to be accelerating this year though about so many horses that will be going there without a recent run, hope theres not a quote that "AAh we'll keep him fresh for the same race next year......

what the hell are you on steeple seriously quirks what quirks watch the greatwood again mate and the supreme the horse has got a tremondous attitude  and i really dont know where u get that he cant jump from this is beyond belif

steeplechasing lost the plot imo

A succinct analysis WOSO, which Alvarado, for one, agrees with

Al, if you don't mind me calling you that, if you stop seething for five minutes and take the time to read through my posts on this thread, you will see that I like the horse an awful lot: he's a very fine horse: he's a major player in the CH:  The only point I am trying to make is that he is lousy value at 7/2.  He's a horse.  You're a person (I think). Why are you taking it all so personally?

Well it looks to me that Steeple has spent a fair bit of time looking at these races,and is telling us his thoughts on that.I know i aint studied the races in as much depth as that,and i suspect nor has anyone else on this thread,so his findings should be respected,even if some disagree with some/most of it.
I think he can win a CH jumping like he did in the Bula,as he looks to have everything needed,just a case of whether he is good enough,and i doubt we will know before March.We do know though that if he jumped like Binocular did last March he would have a better chance.That is how they should be jumped.

Their are unknowns,particularly re other horses that will line up,a lot to play their hands yet.
Current price on Menorah is too short.

Alvarado telling him to watch the race again after he's given a hurdle by hurdle analysis...

Excellent post Steeple and one with which I would concur wholeheartedly. I have also been impressed with Menorah this season. I did actually back him in SN in March but was also concerned, in respect of this season, regarding his hurdling technique and what I also perceived as possible quirks, particularly at the last two hurdles where I thought he was possibly looking like running out. I am prepared to accept your more generous assessment that he lacks confidence and panics at the approach to his hurdles and indeed that seems more likely as he has looked thoroughly genuine this season.

i give up the majority of you lot cleary know nothing about racing as jim mcgrath said if u wasant impressed with menorah on sat then u wont be impressed with anything

Well i for one am not saying i werent impressed with him Saturday,i was very much and wish i had backed him at start of the season, as being a fan of him last season,i should have!!
Think it fair to say though that people are allowed to examine him closely and discuss any flaws he may have,especially as he is now a pretty short price in what looks a real competitive race shaping up.

Exactly which part of 'I have also been impressed with Menorah this season', says to you I have not been impressed with Menorah Alvarado?

As Buddeliea says, it's clear that Steeplechasing has done his homework on this and I'm inclined to agree with him on many counts. I've watched Menorah closely and I wouldn't underestimate his battling qualities and I'd disagree with you about Peddlers Cross finding more 'heart' in a finish. He's been tested more than PC who's managed to master a notoriously weak finisher in Starluck (he's all speed and little stamina) and he's got more questions to answer than Menorah on that score. There's probably only Solwhit in the field as tough as him. Maybe SC raises a decent point about his 'crunch-time' hurdling technique, possibly proving crucial, though I don't see this as big an issue over hurdles as fences. When Edredon Bleu won his Champion Chase, he faced a slightly superior rival in Flagship Uberalles, but he always looked the type to lose a length or two (at least) negotiating the last two fences, whereas Edredon Bleu's  impeccable fencing was always likely to give him an advantage at those critical points. Ultimately, that as well as his grit won the day.

when flagship won the champion chase he barely jumped a fence

MENORAH = best jumper of a hurdle EVER!

It's not often I go overboard about a horse jumping a hurdle and I don't think it's as important as some of you guys reckon. I can't think of a top-class hurdler that wasn't very fluent in the main. Any takers for this one? A top-notch hurdler that regularly struggled to jump?

Alvarado has never seen a video of Night Nurse(nap)

Or he is around nineteen years of age and knows no different

Harchibaldy

If I remember correctly French Holly used to kick a few hurdles out the way in most of his races

PF - I said top-class

ach, your just pulling my chain now.....an offical rating of 173 wasn't too shabby in my book

This horse didn't just fiddle his hurdles he used to kick them out of the ground

PF - I know that buddy but his rating was due to his proximity to Istabraq - he couldn't even get him off the bridle and a literal interpretation has greatly flattered him with an inflated rating, better than most Champion Hurdlers which is mind-boggling. Nevertheless he was a smashing horse and it was very sad that we never saw him get the opportunity to make an even better chaser. Anyhow, at least you've named ONE that regularly ballsed up and if he could have hurdled, Charlie Swan might have needed his whip

Menorah is terrible value at 4-1

Beat novices lto but surely Hurricane Fly, Binocular and Peddlers Cross would have done the same?

Won last years Supreme, which isn't looking that great formwise.

The Supreme winner stepping up to the Champion Hurdle record is poor

I just cant have it at all.

how do you kow they would of done the same hurricane fly just continues to beat solwhit ,knowone knows when binocular will turn up and peddlers was all out to b eat starluck hardly bombprof are there

i dont care who you are u cant knock menorahs last win it was breathtaking against 2 very good horses

Go Native out for the season

Excellent, thorough analysis, Steeple, And the term 'niggled' Timeform refer to would seem to fit, I think.

The Aintree run is certainly interesting to analyse. I wouldn't disagree with your summary. There was a reasonable pace on in that race, so that at least delivered one of the conditions the trainer has said is important for the horse. Two other conditions in that race though contravened the trainer's assessment of what Menorah needs. The first was the lack of strength in depth in the field; it was a decent enough line-up, but not quite as competitive as the SN or the Greatwood (when taking account of the effect of the handicap). Second, Menorah hit the front a little sooner than ideal given that he had a talented and tenacious pursuer who is reportedly a good stayer coming after him. Connections expressed concern about Menorah getting there too soon in the SN, so at that stage at least they were of the opinion the horse needs delivering comparatively late in his races. I think they are mindful he doesn't do an awful lot in front.

So, in a way, I wasn't surprised Menorah was beaten at Aintree, though it would be rash to rule out the possibility that the race may have offered a sign that seeing out the trip off a good pace might prove to be an issue with the horse.

I am still more inclined to think though that Menorah will prove to be one of those horses that performs much better the better the class of the opposition he is facing and the fiercer the competition in the race. In the SN, the Aintree race and the Bula, he got to the front pretty easily overall, and arguably got there sooner than ideal. In better quality, more competitive races he will have much more to run at in front of him in the final stages, and that will suit the horse much better, imo.

I take your point that in the SN Menorah did gain an advantage by getting first run over GMOH, but what impressed me was how easily Menorah got into the position to strike for home off the final bend and how much he had left to be able to kick on so effectively from there (in the latter stages of the SN they were going just about as fast as they did in the CH, though the earlier pace had been slower). I would probably share the view expressed by connections at the time that Menorah was travelling so well, he got there too soon and was idling at the end rather than weakening.

As you  note, there probably was an element of 'optical illusion' about how impressive Menorah's turn of foot was when going past CC and SC in the Bula. You rightly point out he may have engaged top gear just as the other three were reaching their optimum speed. Though, of course, if he was later into top gear than the other three, he was doing quite well to still be as close to them as he was at that stage, and again that may be some measure of his high class (or, alternatively, it may say more about the current standard of the three he went on to beat).

Menorah wouldn't be quite as tall as PC, but he is a bit more gangly than perhaps is ideal in terms of cultivating a very good hurdling technique. There have been some reasonably tall horses (some gangly) that have been fairly slick over the hurdles in the past, but presumably it is not quite as easy for a horse that has a bit of scope to make the quick, fine adjustments that are needed to hurdle very smoothly and speedily. Though, of course, being fairly tall didn't stop Night Nurse being brilliant and brilliant in what was, arguably, the best hurdles race on record in the 1977 CH.

I have some reservations about Menorah's hurdling, though mainly in relation to Binocular who has shown himself to be absolutely top notch in terms of hurdling technique when really firing. Against most of the others in the likely line-up, I feel Menorah's hurdling might just about pass muster.

On good ground, turning for home, I don't think they would want to have Binocular (or any other quick, strong finisher) behind them, with plenty left in the tank. I think the best chance Menorah would have in that situation would be to try to follow Binocular through as that one makes his run, letting Binocular's finishing pace be the catalyst for drawing out the class that I think is there with Menorah and which we didn't get to the bottom of in the SN or the Bula (both races ultimately being too easy for him, imo). Whether a horse like Binocular would still have too much speed off a strong pace for Menorah to run with, we would have to see. It would be unknown territory for Menorah, as for many of the others.

I think on what we have seen so far, there is a reasonable expectation Menorah will travel and battle well enough in the CH, and that off a fast pace he'll have a fair range of gears to work through. Whether they can get the tactics and timing right with him in the race and whether he has quite enough class to reach the very top over hurdles, are the two issues I would be most concerned about in assessing his chances in the CH.

I agree with your point that form analysis has to be from a personal viewpoint. That is where the rub is, I think. If it becomes too subjective, it isn't form analysis (because the 'form' would then become so much a matter of interpretation that any notion of there being something objective or factual about the race results from a form angle would go out the window). On the other hand, if form analysis becomes too rigid and literal, there is a danger of thinking it more objective and meaningful than actually it can be. It is achieving the fine balance between searching for some broadly factual basis for assessing horses and recognising that elements of personal judgement must also be involved, that is so tricky to pull off - but equally, as you imply, it is precisely that which makes the whole process of form study and race watching so compelling.

Good stuff aka, and some nice counter-points to my earlier interpretation.  It's not so much the cold form analysis that attracts me to NH racing it's that intuitive insight you sometimes get as you watch a horse throughout a race, that instinct which can make you feel you've found a piece of the puzzle no one else has yet spotted.

I've been wrong plenty times, but correct often enough to keep me trying to refine it.

Something we are all fortunate in is having such a unique course as Cheltenham to test our theories about potential champions.  If the festival took place at any other track, the festival forums would be lonely places.

Each year the festival's dominance of the season grows. Every other graded race is simply regarded as a Cheltenham trial and more good horses make fewer appearances - probably not a good thing in the long term; sponsors certainly won't be impressed.  Anyway, let's hope we can continue mining for clues for many years to come.

Yes, Cheltenham in so many ways is a unique course and so well suited  to test the class of the horses and, to some extent, the quality of the jockeys. And I agree, it is observing the horses in the paddock and, even more so, in running that provides so many important clues, alongside the more cerebral work of running through the form analysis. Great to have the video internet access now for reviewing past races.

At Aintree, with not so much strength in depth in the field, Menorah was an easy target for General Miller to stalk, with always the danger that Menorah would pull himself to the front sooner than ideal. I felt BG got it right tactically on General Miller and was able to mug Menorah on the line.

It is not so much that Menorah idles in front, nor does he really weaken I would say - he kept running to the line at Aintree reasonably strongly. It is more that when he gets to the front, he stays on quite well, but doesn't really quicken away to any great extent. Coming that a bit later, with targets to pass on the run-in might suit him that bit better. Even when he won at Kempton, it was more a case of Bellvano tying up behind him, than Menorah racing away at the end.

We may yet find it is more a stamina issue with Menorah, but my stronger sense is that he needs a bit more company and ideally horses to pass, in order to bring the best out of him in a finish.

He was cut from 12/1 to 4/1 after the bula win. Was a win over those two horses worthy of a price cut of that size?

Especially as AP mentioned the 10l proximity of 5th Crystal Bonus. Implying that the race wasn't that hot a trial.

I think most will agree there is no ap value in 4/1 as if he goes straight to chelts then he will drift to at least 6/1 if Binocular, Hurricane Fly and Peddlers all win their trials in the next 5 weeks.

CV - I wouldn't be too critical about the form as Crystal Bonus shaped well on his British debut and may well have lots of improvement in him as he was a high class performer in France.

That's right, the price initially after the Bula was too short and has now drifted back, on here at least, to nearer what I would see as the true odds at this stage. Anything under 6 still looks a bit short, but we know these markets embellish the need for a favourite to emerge.

I guess the fairly close proximity of Cystal Bonus was a reflection of the comparatively modest pace in the Bula. And, as I was suggesting, Menorah is perhaps not one to extend a lead by very far when hitting the front with a fair way still to run. On a sounder surface and off a faster pace, Menorah possibly would have seen off horses like Bothy with greater ease in the Greatwood.

Nevertheless, I agree that if you just look at the bare form, there is scope for picking holes in what Menorah has achieved quite legitimately. That gets us back to the discussion we were having earlier about just how much weight to give to bare form, which is always open to interpretation, against other measures of a horses ability and potential.

I am not yet entirely sold on Menorah, but I am impressed by the relative ease with which he gets into contention in his races. It is how he pulls himself to the front so readily two or three out that I like the look of. He appears to have a very high cruising speed (not perfect, as he has been niggled along briefly at least a couple of times in his runs so far)and when he does get his hurdling right he makes quite a lot of ground. How he finishes his races is not quite so impressive perhaps, though he battled quite well in the Greatwood and he did show some turn of foot, albeit possibly against slower horses, in the Bula. But he looks as if he might be vulnerable if in front too long in the closing stages. If I was backing Menorah, I would prefer to see him swoop slightly later and be drawn into the finish by those in front.

rg,agree Menorah price is too short,but he was certainly the best horse in the supreme.If Dunguib could jump as well as Menorah it may have been different,but he cant.

aka,have seen nowt wrong with the way he has finished his races thus far,and he seems to be getting stronger and speedier with the expected improvement.Aintree he was caught,but Aintree may have been after he peaked for the season,as is often the case.

Some super posts on this thread, which i've joined late. FWIW, I think Menorah was OTT on his final start last term. I thought he looked it beforehand, compared to his previous outing.

One thing we might be overlooking here is that, in the assumed absence of Celestial Halo, where is the pace going to come from?  I cannot see any among the first ten in the betting who'd relish a front-running role.

Even with a couple of pacemakers thrown in, I've noticed an increasing inclination among riders of key contenders, especially in Ireland, to ignore big-priced pacesetters and pay more attention to sticking close to perceived major rivals.

After a couple of thousand words of speculation on how such and such might last in an end-to-end gallop, we might end up with a sprint from two out!

I have never mentioned the Aintree form as I never put stock in form from that meeting due to many horses being ott then. General Miller unseated early in the supreme so was fresher than Menorah that day.

I would like it if Menorah had one more run before Cheltenham like say against Peddlers Cross at Haydock. I'm just not sold on Cue Card and Sil Conti and the over reaction to his win over them and subsequent skinny odds. I think he'll just be unbackable for the Champion unless he drifts to at least 7/1 imv.

I'm not knocking the horse at all, I like him and am a fan of consistent horses like him, Hurricane Fly, Solwhit, Khyber Kim and Peddlers Cross.

steeple, overturn making the pace with peddlers and silviniaco in behind?

Overturn is a good call Wicketd.  There's every chance he'll go into the race with a rating above 160 which, with his record, would make it pretty risky for the others to let him get away.

Agree with all that CVB. I am prob a bit warmer on him than you, and though the bare form of teh Bula is prob not quite winning CH form, the manner of his win was imperious. I agree though, at this stage he still has a bit to prove to be that price.

menorah best racehorse in training at the moment

Alvarado yes, you are right, he's better than Binocular, Kauto, MDH, Denman, better than Master Minded, Imperial Commander, they are all so average.

naa there brillant but menorah is the best racehorse ive seen potentally

Maybe rg,but to be the best horse in the race that does include jumping,and in that regard he was not even close.
Had his jumping not been a worry to connections he would probably have been in a different position during the race and therefore not losing ground in the process.
Had it been a flat race he would have won,but it aint and because of his jumping he was not the best horse.

Alvarado you need to watch more than 1/2 dozen races a year or have you only taken an interest in racing since november.

The novice Cue Card was cantering all over him @ the 2nd last but unfortunately hes had no experience of racing with more hardened campaigners.
@ present Menorah is a very promising 2nd season hurdler with potential to improve further but to put him potentially the best horse youve seen is either bizarre or as per my opening line.
To date hes not faced a proven champion hurdle contender not his fault he can only beat whats in front of him.
In 3 races last season Donny/Ascot & Aintree he hardly looked a potentail world beater did he?
An  open race for another fascinating champion but if the Binocular of last yr turns up on decent ground with his electric jumping that sets him apart from the rest then the others will have their work cut out.

Racingguru - I think you are right to bring into the discussion about the SN the importance of ground saved by Menorah on the inside rail, especially relative to the wider course steered on Dunguib. I suspect the inside rail route was taken with Menorah more to keep him covered up and help him settle, though of course it also saved ground as well.

It wasn't an especially fast time they recorded in the SN and Menorah got to the front relatively easily, which to my mind suggests he may well have been capable of running faster and pulling out more had the race been even more competitive. So while it might have helped Dunguib's cause to have taken a more economical route around the track, assuming his jumping would stand up to it, an even better run from Dunguib might simply have been met by an even better performance from Menorah.

I don't think we have got anywhere near the bottom of Menorah yet and my feeling is that in a more testing race he may be capable of finding a fair bit more than he has shown already. But that is very much speculation, as he clearly still has it all to do in the book.

If they do run Overturn and adopt the front running tactics that saw him win the Scottish CH and the Galway Hurdle, on reasonable ground that would certainly be likely to set up a fantastic race, with a true enough pace for there to be no doubt about the quality of the winner.

Steeple I've mentioned before how celestial halo's pace sets the races up for binocular. His three best runs in open company have come in races with CH setting the pace.

It's a very good point asking where the pace will come from. Celestial Halo is/was a genuine threat in those two champion hurdles and horses had to go with him.

In my view this strong pace would suite the horses who travel well like Binocular, Hurricane Fly, and Khyber Kim. But I don't see any genuine threat from a front runner in this field so the early pace could well be slower this time.

Also quick juno back to crystal bonus, he was giving 4lbs to menorah for a 10l defeat. The ap rode him that day and mentioned his proximity to menorah means he is confident that the form of the trace isn't as good as puerile think. He knows what  binocular can do.

Puerile = people

predictive text problem

Kempton will possibly tell us more,a good run from Overturn in that will keep them on their toes came March if he runs from the front then.

If its on!!!

True and if he does set a good pace from the front then it'll be interesting to see how binocular does.

Yeh,need this to be on,be interesting to see how KK is shaping up as well as Binocular after his defeat at Newcastle,also keen to see my dark horse for the CH,Oscar Whiskey.

Bl00dy snow.
See its at Leopardstown now CV.

Yeah just after I said to you yesterday there was no snow then we got six inches of the stuff. 26th is in slight dowubt but the dial a bet on 27th will be fine.

Interested in Oscar Whiskey myself too. He's a 2m4f horse though, one for the Aintree Hurdle.

yer could be right re OW,bit of a shot in the dark as regards CH.still yer never know with these improving types,worth a small risk at 80 odd i thought.
Hope the snow in Leop clears in time,want a nice prep for BZ up to March.