Cheltenham Festival
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CUE CARD AT 3-1 FOR SUPREME NOVICES????
CUE CARD AT 3-1 FOR SUPREME NOVICES????
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Replies: 278
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Imo its all about Cue Cards price on the day, if he's smashed into under 7-4 id find a couple to beat him at the current prices id probably give the race a swerve
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only four lenghts johnson stopped riding after the last could of been 20l if asked
he was thrashed and put in his place |
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Alvarado
A recipe for HUMBLE PIE 16 oz Self Raising Opinion I pint Milking it 1 large tsp Humility Mix well Place in a warm oven and cook slowly for several weeks. You may need this in a couple of weeks. |
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Cue Card, was not thrashed. Is it not possible that Menorah is in fact a top class horse?
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There are no Menorah's in the Supreme. Charlie Swan has just compared Menorah to Istabraq. Said on here before the Bula that Menorah was the biggest danger to Binocular retaining his crown.
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sj
I suggest if you are going to continue betting on this sport that you get a little more understanding of what you are watching,if you are of the opinion that CC was not well and truly destroyed by Menorah then you are very much mistaken,its not the winning distance that you need to focus on,its the manor and authority in which he desposed of him in a matter of strides. Races must be watched and reviewed a number of times over on replay before coming to your final conclusion,perhaps if you did this you may change your opinion. Big Bucks previous 3 winning distances were 6L,3L and 2 3/4L and im sure you will agree that he thrashed the opposition on each occasion. The International win did nothing to enhance Menorahs claims,all he did was what was expected of him and breeze past 2 horses over a trip 'OBVIOUSLY' to short for them,his Greatwood win carrying top weight on ground that would not have really suited was head and sholders miles ahead. |
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Is it fair to say that using Menorah as a guide can be hugely misleading because we don't as yet know how good Menorah is?
And we cannot wait for Menorah to run again before having a bet. So leave him out of the calculations and you have CC beating SC and Clerk's Choice and he would be unbeaten in 5 races. Therefore he would be a shade of odds for the Supreme with the added experience of winning at a festival under his belt. If you can get anywhere near 3/1 before the off I think that is a very, very fair bet, win or lose. |
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I'm sorry but what the fu ck would Charlie Swan know abot Menorah,he has probably never been within 50 miles of the horse and what makes his opinion so special,we all know that Menorah is a very good horse,the point was that CC is anything but that over the 2 mile trip and to say there are no Menorahs in this years race is a bad statement as there are lost of unexposed horses who could be anything.
Taking out the International form brig,as you say and CC form is no better than any number of runners in the supreme,he is the price he is due to last years bumper win and its as simple as that,he has been a short price winner for this race ever since that day,but this is no bumper race,far from it and the current price is the worst value at the festival |
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TheFormMan Joined: 05 Dec 10
Replies: 232 26 Feb 11 12:33 sj I suggest if you are going to continue betting on this sport that you get a little more understanding of what you are watching,if you are of the opinion that CC was not well and truly destroyed by Menorah then you are very much mistaken,its not the winning distance that you need to focus on,its the manor and authority in which he desposed of him in a matter of strides. Races must be watched and reviewed a number of times over on replay before coming to your final conclusion,perhaps if you did this you may change your opinion. Big Bucks previous 3 winning distances were 6L,3L and 2 3/4L and im sure you will agree that he thrashed the opposition on each occasion. The International win did nothing to enhance Menorahs claims,all he did was what was expected of him and breeze past 2 horses over a trip 'OBVIOUSLY' to short for them,his Greatwood win carrying top weight on ground that would not have really suited was head and sholders miles ahead. We're going down the snidey remarks route are we? I'm surprised you dint put a "son" in there as well. I have watched the race over and over thank you, and I would suggest that Menorah was ridden out to the line and won by 4 lengths. The horse has won the Greatwood and the Supreme Novice hurdle I sont see any shame in Cue Card being beaten by 4 lengths I'm well aware it s not just the distance Zarkava was one on the flat you couldnt take literally but in my OPINION and thats all it is YOU SMUG PR AT I dont see no novice who would of got within that distance that day. I will try and have a little more UNDERSTANDING in future oh great one |
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'I dont see no novice who would of got within that distance that day'
you dont know what would have happened had the likes of Sprinter Sacre,Spirit Son or Zaidpour to name just a few,had run in the International,it is just guess work on your part to make the above statement.so in your opinion,surely CC cant be value at 5/2 for a festival race on pure guess work in the hope that all the unexposed runners in the field are all rubbish |
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You're correct Sprinter Sacre and Spirit Son could be anything, Zaidpour? Really how many chances are we going to give this horse?
Did you see what I done there? Responded with out being a patronising wan ker. Your turn |
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TheFormMan can I refer you above to the recipe for Humble Pie.
Everyone, and that includes both you and Charlie Swan, have a right to offer their views and we, as punters, will make our decisions. Some we get right and some we get wrong but the journey must be as enjoyable as possible. We know your views. You can back them with your hard earned and you can glory in the sunshine of success should you be right. But try not to slag off all and sundry along the way. |
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Do not slag off all and sundry,just amateurs who try and play at this game and post rubbish
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^^^^^^ After some of the stuff you've posted on the CH thread, you are one to talk!
This thread indicates all that is wrong with the forums. People can't offer an opinion without it turning into playground bickering. |
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Well obviously it's because money is involved so forget about idealistic hopes of honest debate, apart from on the occasional excellent thread. Take Alvarado for instance. Every comment about Cue Card he makes on here is aimed at slating the horse. He'll put up an opponent that is supposedly in a different league and calls it a monster on the basis of one run, then when it gets beat he moves on to another. You have to sort out the ulterior motive folk, especially the ones who spell didn't dident.
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The menorah / cue card / conti race at chelt was a farce. Festival form is the only pre race assement to use in another festival race imo. Only one winner and I think we may even get a straight forecast with the hales runner chasing him home again ! bring it on.
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Rather hard to use festival form in the supreme though Luther isn't it? I agree with you rpoint for a lot of other races to some extent but following the previous years NHF winner at the festival has proven a quick route the poor house of late.
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Will be different this year as CC can actually jump well and will get a proper ride [;)]
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MLK
Has Al Ferof been confirmed for the race Thinking it will be shorter than 16s if it has been. TIA |
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Amatuer's PMSL. Well done mate
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It's nonsense saying Cue Card can't win because Dunguib didn't, yet it's surprising how often that argument is put forward. He's a far better jumper of hurdles (I think Dunguib should be chasing)and IMHO the quickest bumper winner we've seen since Montelado.
I'm pretty sure Dunguib's jockey was riding to instructions last year Dr. as they knew his jumping was suspect, so I thought it was poor when he was blamed for the defeat. The Bula form is suspect as there was no pace, it came after weather-interrupted preparations, and Silviniaco Conti ran like a drain last week, but you don't need it to make a case for either Cue Card or Menorah in their respective races. The former has by far the easier task though, and I suspect I will hold off from betting on the champion until after the supreme. I can't help thinking Hurricane is the Fly in the ointment in the big race and it would be great to see him get there at last. |
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red and white When: 26 Feb 11 20:07
It's nonsense saying Cue Card can't win because Dunguib didn't, yet it's surprising how often that argument is put forward. I agree. The problem is that some people in the last page or so want ignore the fact that some races are more likely to produce a winner from the head of the market compared with others and the supreme certainly is not one of them. First season hurdlers are by definition mostly unknown and many of them are very progressive, this fact makes backing the fav in the supreme not too great an idea IMO. Certainly in recent years anyway where in the last 6 years the average sp of the winner is around 16/1. I really rate CC and I think he is decent value at his current price compared with say Dunguib went off at last year. But I don't want to get too involved in a race with so many unkowns especially not at the start of the week. For me this will be a small bet on what I consider to be a live outsider and wait for a better opportunity to back a shorty in a later race where I consider there to be less sleepers in the field. Slagging CC and talking up the horses behind in the betting isn't necessary. CC has the best form in the race and is more than a worthy favourite. But there will be a lot of top yards pitching their best novice against CC and their will be a few of those yards that think they have something special. |
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I've used the wrong their where I should have used there above
 . I must go and flog myself[smiley:crazy]! |
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Paddy Power refunding losing bets on the race if Cue Card wins.
Time to get stuck into Sprinter Sacre when non runner no bet appears  |
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always knew that there was alot of brains at P POWER,i'm sure on there site it reads 'in the unlikely event that CC wins the supreme................'
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Sorry? Brians at Paddy Power this is to attract money for horses other than Cue Card, jesus and you call me the amatuer.
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Is this ante-post only or will it be day of the race as well?
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they deserve to get destroyed with this one. Different class to Dunguib.
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^^I will ignore that. It's late. Buy a form book fella.
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I am going thru the Supreme again as I often do with the Cheltenham races as it helps me find things I've missed or gives me different perspectives. Up until now I have been against Cue Card and am reassessing the reasons why. I seem to remember reading somewhere (maybe on here) that Tizzard's horses were out of form in December? This might not be true, but i have a vague fragment of doubt in the back of my mind. Could someone either clear this up for me, or possibly tell me where i could find Trainer stats per month as I've searched everywhere! Many thanks!!
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on sat tizzard had 2nd and 4th in the racing post chase, had a winner with coup roayle,another 4th in the last at kemp yest aswell,, looks to be coming into form at the right time
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http://horses.sportinglife.com/Trainer_Profile/0,12487,18881,00.html
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try the sporting life , click stats ,jump trainer season and then click on c tizzard brings up the season stats
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Thanks Dave, I've got all that. But looking for the stats rom December specifically.
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yea just noticed that , wat a piece of shhhiiit , says season stats and gives you until 1st jan wtf ,
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worked it out on the rp website - go to colin tizzard, then stats and search by month 2/23 in Dec
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crickey, here's me thinking we're discussing CC's chances and it's turned into a pathetic scoring points exercise. Remember it takes 2 views to make a market, if everyone thought the same thing it would be boring. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, whether you agree with it or not it's their right to have it!
personally i think 9/4 is plenty short enough from a value perspective in a race which tends to bring improvers. In MY opinion, when backing / laying you need to look at value, blinding backing something at ANY price isn't the correct thing to do, if CC was 10's then i'd say it's a great bet but 9/4 doesn't really appeal even if he has the best form so far. |
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Where is the value in your opinion or are you not betting in the race? 10s with Cue Card's form is asking a lot, the sort of bet you wouldn't get very often. If you only took opportunities like that you'd die of boredom waiting for them. There is no doubt your point is correct though somewhat exaggerated.
A few of Tizzards performed below par around the time of the Bula Gashboy. He reported his gallops had been frozen. You'll remember the awful weather end November/early December. |