Menorah is allowed excuses for getting beaten but Cue Card isn't. Oh, well.
And then of course he was beaten by the horse you think will win the Champion Hurdle so if he is beaten then your fancy isn't perhaps such a good thing.

You seem to be predicting so why can't I?

And of course Sprinter Sacre was beaten easily by Frascati Park who had previously finished light years behind Silvinaco Conti who was then beaten by Cue Card.

Worth a thought.

One winnner of the Supreme and he runs in the next few days.

It is very naive indeed to look at the Menorah form with Cue Card and come to the conclusion Cue Card could be in the same class as Menorah. Yes Menorah is a worthy 2nd fav for the Champion, and fwiw I think he will win it. But imo I believe he is an exceptional horse that is suited by a certain running style - to use his huge stride to travel in a very quick gallop and still be able to quicken enough and stay well up the hill. Look at last year's Supreme for evidence of this. The race vs CC and SC, there was no real gallop, Menorah didn't have this to his advantage, yet still went past them in about 5 strides (he's been beaten by inferior horses before in soft gallops). CC had the run of the race that day and SC was outpaced, gave him 4lbs and still stayed on to get upsides. This makes CC a very decent horse whichever way you look at it, but a champion 2 miler and 9/4 for the Supreme, no way. I work for a bookmaker and I can confirm that we are exceptionally happy to be laying this.

Latent ability actually. But I don't expect most people ever consider this a factor beyond the letters and number that are printed in their papers.

That is something i am not prepared to reveal I'm afraid.

Haha - what about winning the Supreme? Perhaps winning the Greatwood off top weight. In any case, it is my opinion that the horse has every attribute required to win the Champion Hurdle, especially his long stride and that last time he displayed exceptional gears in what I consider to be not ideal circumstances for the horse. I'm not sure what evidence there is to suggest that the horse doesn't have huge latent ability, which as a 6yo hasn't been fully tapped yet.

Yes I do understand. I have my own views, personal to me. But I am not knocking your views the way you are knocking mine, and other Cue Card punters.
You cannot have it both ways.

When I look in the form book it doesn't say against Menorah's name, see Gashboy.

I totally respect your view and I hope you, in turn, will respect mine.

Thats just about right Magic.
Some come on here boldly stating this, that and the other and then, when you ask them for an explanation there is nothing forthcoming.
I would dearly like someone to point out something I have missed, I am not infallible but I don't really want to be told absolute facts by someone I have no idea who they are.
What's that all about?

I don't know who Gashboy is or who he works for but i'm glad he works for an unnamed betting company because it will make it all the more satisfying when Cue Card bolts up.I find it extremely patronising at times when you get told to look at things properly by individuals who do not have a clue about how you interpret races

theformMan IS rafa......................'FACT'

Ok so we'll pull apart the Menorah form, could the layers enlighten us as to what horse and particular piece of form make Cue Card a take on at 9-4? Also if I was that confident of getting Cue Card i'd go top price

Gashboy13 - good analysis of Menorah; if he gets the race conditions you describe in the CH, as likely he will, he'll be a big danger to all, imo.

CC I find very hard to judge in relation to the SN, though clearly plenty of ability there.

Their is not one piece of novice form anywhere that can be compared to finishing just behind a CH contender,that cannot be disputed.
Whether that means CC will win the supreme i dont know,but it certainly dont mean he cant!!
As usual the race is full of unexposed horses that could be anything,and CC is one of them.
FWIW i have Sprinter and Day of a Lifetime at nice odds,but hopeful at best,in such a hard race to work out.

Aka, you cannot claim Menorah has a good chance in possibly the hottest race at the meeting and then rubbish Cue Cards chances in a much weaker race.

Where have I rubbished CC's chances. Brigust1? I think you need to read other people's posts more carefully before commenting. I said I find it hard to assess his chances, which is hardly rubbishing the horse, is it?

My point about Menorah was contingent on him getting the type of race conditions Gashboy13 noted; that is, a big field, fast run race. He had almost the opposite conditions in the International. For that and other reasons, the International, imo, is a poor guide to anything that is likely to happen in the SN and the CH. Therefore I wasn't reading anything from the form of that race about either Menorah or CC.

Cue Card's run behind Menorah in the International neither elevates that horse's chances in the SN, nor reduces them, imo.

Cue Card either wins easy or he has an accident on the way round which isn't out of the question given the nature of the race, fast early pace, some novices running free with some dodgy jumping. Connections of Dunguib lost their bottle last year by making the jockey go wide out of trouble. You could argue his jumping wasn't good enough to be in the thick of it. No problems with Cue Card in that respect though they will ride him handy to avoid trouble. Barring accidents he will pull away by eight lengths plus to win in a faster time than the later Champion. In doing so he will take a lot out of himself and will flop next time at Aintree if Tizzard does what he says he will do for a change and runs him there as well. There you go, crystal ball put away for another year.
If Cue Card loses the Supreme I hope Joe Tizzard is gracious in defeat, unlike the way he blanked Richard Johnson after the Bula. He behaved like a petulant kid and perhaps that's why he rides mostly for daddy.

I did read your views aka. Surely if you use the International as a guide then CC's chances are involved,

But I am not using the International as a guide, as I pointed out. Sorry if I left my original post open to that misinterpretation. Others may take a different view of the form of the International, which is fine. I don't rubbish horses though, and certainly not ones as clearly talented as Cue Card.

I would agree that it is by no means proven that Menorah would be better suited by a strong end-to-end gallop, though my own view is that he would be. Menorah has yet to encounter a race as fast run as the CH is likely to be. His TS ratings for the Greatwood and the SN were higher though than his TS rating for the International. In a more true run race, you would expect the winner to be fully extended or close to that in a competitive race, as Menorah was in winning the SN and when conceding weight in the Greatwood. Slower run races that develop into something of a sprint finish can more often exaggerate the margin of victory and may seem visually more impressive than the reality might be.

My personal judgement about Menorah is that the faster they go and the more competitive the horses are in front of him, the better he will perform. It is only my opinion, though, it is not something that can be fully supported with evidence from form reading or from an analysis of race times. I don't necessarily see him as the winner of the CH, but he is not one I would want to be underestimating.

Rondetto offers a summary below of points that have frequently been repeated on here about Menorah's chances in the CH from a form angle. The only point I would disagree with from that post is the idea that Menorah ground them down in the SN. The overall race time for the SN and the sectional times just don't support the idea that the race was won through attrition. If Menorah 'ground them down' in what was a comparatively modest time for the SN, there must have been some weak stayers behind him. I would have said that a good tactical ride and having just about enough speed to take advantage of getting first run on the other main contenders, were the main factors contributing to his win in the SN. He is not an especially fast horse for the distance, imo, but neither would I see him as an out and out grinder.

Sorry to get off the theme of the thread, which is about Cue CArd.

Good summary, Eric. As you say, Cue Card has a very good cruising speed and. with the right ride and pace profile to the race, he likely will be a danger to all in the SN. Always hard to know what else is out there for the SN (as Recession Proof's run today is a reminder) and particularly so in a season that has been so interrupted by lost fixtures and with the ground conditions so often being that bit softer than we are likely to get at the Festival.

not really i think finians rainbow will but that dosentmean i fancy hells bay for the jewsonwin the arkle

ive had a nightmare here

lets start again
i think finians rainbow will win the arkle but that dosent mean hells bay should win the jewson does it