Why is Denman more than double the price of Kauto Star for the GC!?

Crewebish, you could also argue those progressive three milers have never been asked to run at the brutal gallop that the Gold Cup is run.

There's been plenty of progressive horses who've looked fantastic and have got no-where near the standard required just for THAT RACE.

You can't buy experience. I'm inclined to agree with the opening poster though that Denman has as much chance as Kauto in my opinion, so the prices head-to-head on offer are ridiculous.

The reason Denman is twice the price of Kauto is that Imperial Commander confirmed his superiority over Denman in this years Gold Cup while Kauto fell and hasn't been beaten when completing since early 2008.

Also on all three runs this year Denman has appeared to be on the wane. While Kauto and IC ran to the same mark in the befair chase. That being the only race where a mistake hasn't cost one or the other any chance of winning.

Personally I don't think any of the three horses above will win the Gold Cup.

Ruby was hard at work on Kauto before he fell in the Gold Cup; he's a great horse but he's soft, he can't live with Denman's relentless gallop! Had Kauto not fallen I very much doubt he would of got near the leaders! Don't want to get into a who's best discussion, but the track and the race is much more suited to Denman than Kauto.

Whether right or wrong, I think the notion that Denman may 'have gone' at the game is the main reason why his price for the GC is so much higher than that for Kauto. Of course, that makes it dangerous to oppose Denman in the GC market, as his price will collapse if he manages to put in a blistering performance and prove his doubters wrong before the GC.

I would be happy if the market works to set up a nice price for Imperial Commander in the GC renewal. At the right price, he looks the most solid bet, imo. One of the younger horses may impress enough this season to make me change my mind, but I am not holding my breath on that. I like Pandorama, though not necessarily for the GC.

Yes, it's interesting how the market is reading it at this point. Seems people are more ready to give Kauto the benefit of the doubt that he still has it in him to win another GC, than they are willing to give the same benefit of the doubt to Denman.

My only firm take on the market at this stage is that I think there may still be a tendency for people to underestimate Imperial Commander's achievements.

Yes the game in about jumping bud, but denman fell this year, imperial commander fell this year (and blundered in king george) kauto fell this year. But on the whole all three are excellent jumpers. It's unwise to oppose any of them based on the fact they all fell this year.

I wonder why you are forgiving Denman his jumping error while not doing the same for kauto? We are now entering the realm of personal bias.

And that is the end of the thread.

It was ok when discussing the reasons for the current prices of the gold cup principles, but now we're back to the same old kauto denman stuff that has been done ad nausium.

I meant you prefer Denman to Kauto and I the other way around.

Anyway I'm just going to avoid the long drawn out Kauto Denman threads, neither are reigning champion and both would have their best years behind them now. Best to focus on the exciting prospect we have on our hands for the champion hurdle.

Solwhit vs Fly 3 at Punchestown should kick things off nicely.

As much as I love Kauto nothing will ever top Demans 2nd Hennessy for me. Magic, truly jaw dropping performance. Brings a year to my eye every time I watch it.

Kauto's best wins are always just  spectacles of sheer brilliance, he's never had a close fought finish in any race that meant much to his career.

Haha, CV you're ridiculous! You've turned this into a Kauto vs. Denman thread all by yourself! How are we supposed to discuss the merit of each price without comparing the two!? At the end of the day they're both brilliant; Kauto on a flat track, Denman on an undulating track. Cheltenham is undulating, Denman is therefore superior, so why the difference in price!?
For me...Burton Port wins the Gold Cup anyway, just suprised by the gulf in price of the Nicholls pair.

I said I am not going to get into a Kauto Denman debate, going over all the same old stuff over and over when it's clear opinions have been formed about these two and no amount of typing is going to change those opinions.

I'm tired of it. It's the same old argument brought up by Denman fans and Kauto fans and one of the main reasons a large amount of good and knowledgeable posters have left these forums and gone to purple.

Energy should be spent discussing horses where opinions can be changed by another poster who has a different take on things and insightful views that you have overlooked. That's what this place used to be like.

bet daq, you may have noticed the weekend thread from the Antepost forum is gone, it's movedthere along with pretty much everyone who posted in it.

It WAS fun mate, but I've posted about a million words on these two horses, they are two of my favourite horses ever. Love them to bits, but there's been too many arguments that go over the exact same points with both sides totally intransigent and no matter what happens on the racecourse views will never be changed. I'm just tired if this topic and tired of how I defend Kauto with every little comment made about him.

Simply to me, he's never run a great race and been defeated. The day that happens is the last season we'll see him on a racecourse. Denman is the only horse to beat Kauto into 2nd in a Grade 1. That day Kauto had a shocker in the jumping department. If he had jumped well and still been beaten by Denman I would never argue the point.

The simple truth is we've never seen Denman and Kauto at their peak both run a great race at the same time in the Gold Cup. We never will.

Anyway, I'm just laying out my opinion on the matter. I refuse to be drawn into a discussion on this though. There are as I said the guts of a million words posted by myself over the past 3 years on the topic.

Giving my opinion is not discussing it, discussion is back and forth, point and counter point.

I'm saying I don't want to get into a discussion on the two horses again. It was great when I thought Kauto would prove my point in the Gold Cup, but I don't think he'll win next year.

So the discussion to me is in the past tense. Nither will win the Gold Cup and who beats who between the two come March is irrelevant as both are past their best.

But you can by all means discuss them to your hearts content, but you clearly seem more interested in posting about me.

Have to agree with some points raised on here, not been posting long but have read the forum for quite a while and CVB you do seem to let your feelings about Kauto influence any reasonable discussion about him. Should someone question his ability to be as effective at one track opposed to another you immediately accuse them of being biased against him. No-one is biased against him mate, we all realise what a marvellous horse he is, that should not however preclude people discussing or voicing their opinions about whether he is as effective and at his optimum at one track or another without being accused of being anti Kauto.

Firstly I don't mean bias. I mean opinions are formed on these two and no evidence will ever change peoples mind. You'd think the 2009 gold cup would have proven kauto easily stays the gold cup trip yet the non stayer opinion persists.

The 2008 gold cup shows how much physical stamina kauto star has. Bobby Dazzler had an excellent post  and detailed post describing how much a bad jump takes out of a horse. A a horse inhales as he extends his legs and takes each stride and exhales in the opposite motion.

So when a horse leaps a fence he inhales and exhales after landing. But a bad jump will interrupt this, winding a house to an extent. This not only slows a horse down but will deprive his muscles of oxegen resulting in a build up of lactic acid in his muscles sooner than it would had his rhythm been uninterrupted.

So what does this tell us? It tels us the kauto stars possesses exceptional physical stamina to come 2nd, 7 lengths down on Denman in 2008 given the considerable number of jumping mistakes he made.

So, the training advantages achieved in the 08/09 season, fitting a nose band and running the horse fresh resulted in an improved horse. Also it is well known that stamina increases as a horse ages at the expense of speed. In kauto's case this resulted in improvement given his speed was already unmatched in the staying division. The result was three wins build on stamina last year, the gold cup win, the betfair chase win in heavy going, and king george win behind nacarat's relentless gallop.

People would like to say kauto is not a cheltenham horse, the evidence of this is minimal. People quickly dismiss his two gold cup wins due to a lack of Denman and a lack of a to if his game Denman. That leaves 08 where I have outlined how physically excellent that performance was in defeat.

We are left with this years fall. The mistake that cost him ant chance came early in the race. The pace was sedate so that couldn't be a reason for the blunder, it was early in the race so he wasn't tired. So like any other horse he simply made an unforced blunder, even arkle did it in his 3rd gold cup, Denman did it at Newbury. It happens.

He'd jumped awesome at every fence at every track since the betfair chase in 08. Why given exactly the same conditions and a similar pace did he jump like a stag in 07 and 09 yet make the early mistake in 10? It is likely to be just an unfortunate mistake.

So to summarize, given his four gold cup runs it's clear to me he totally gets the trip and has no problems with the cheltenham fences either.

Don't say fact, facts are indisputable, this is far from indisputable.

Firstly we need to exclude the 06 Champ Chase, it's run on a different course, over a different distance and was 5 seasons ago in only Kauto's 3rd run outside novice company.

To say Kauto has a problem with Cheltenham fences then why has he had such different experiences with them in his four Gold Cups? In 2008 he was not fluent and jumped poorly from the start. While in 2010 he was jumping excellently well before out of nowhere a huge blunder. In his other two Gold Cups he won on the back of runs near faultless rounds of jumping.

Kauto has run in 4 Betfair chases and has run poorly and unseated in one, he could easily have fallen in one of his four runs at Kempton. Denman has fallen on his last run at Newbury does that now mean he has a problem with the track? It simply does not stand up to scrutiney that Kauto has a problem with Cheltenham and more likely that his 2010 mishap was simply that, a mishap that almost every chaser suffers a couple of times in their career.

I have a masters degree in statistics so I know a thing or two about drawing conclusions based on evidence and it is the definition of impossible to draw a conclusion that Kauto has a problem with Cheltenham fences based on 4 gold cups, and two wins. Especially given the problems with the fences in 2008 and 2010 are not even similar. They are like Denmans Newbury defeat and his Punchestown defeat, one was a blunder out of nowhere, one was a laboured error strewn run from the start.

At the end of the day Kauto is still just a horse, and horses, like humans can make mistakes for no apparent reason what so ever. Sometimes there is no conclusions to be drawn.

You do love an excuse for Kauto CV!
Firstly, who did Kauto beat to win the 2007 Gold Cup!? The field was poor to say the least.
Secondly, how good was Kauto's win in 2009, given Denman, who climbed off his sick bed to run in the race only finished a handful of lengths back in second!?
Thirdly, what has been the one common factor in Kauto's poor jumping performances at Cheltenham!? A fit and healthy Denman.
Fourthly, it is a bit unfair to compare Denman's fall at Newbury to Kauto's errors at Cheltenham; Denman took off a mile from the fence and landed on top of it, still staying on his feet before UNSEATING AP at the next, not falling. Kauto's errors in the 2008 and 2010 Gold Cup's were both down to Denman turning the screw on him! I'm not neccesarily saying Kauto does not perform around Cheltenham, he obviously does, what im saying is he is not as suited as Denman, who even you must conceed LOVES the place!
I therefore refer you to my opening point...why is Denman such a bigger price than Kauto!? Why are they not the same price at least!? Use your masters, crunch your numbers and tell me, I really want to know!

You have lost your credibility dwm when you attribute Kauto's jumping errors to the presence of Denman. Kauto's 2010 mistake was so early in the race it was nothing to do with Denman or any horse "turning the screw".

That leaves one race with which to draw your conclusions. The 2008 Gold Cup. By that logic Kauto was defeated by Snoopy Loopy in the betfair chase in 2008. Let's draw conclusions from that one race too. Or how many times has Denman lost? since his 2008 gold cup win?  is it 6 losses from 7 races?

The bottom line is there isn't enough evidence to draw any definitive conclusions about Kauto at Cheltenham. So that leaves opinion. Which will not be changed by any amount of words so what's the point?