he won "only a handicap" off 174!!!
carrying 174 is the best way to rate how good the horse is, compared to everyone running off levels
it was an outstanding performance
can you not see that???

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2rivets - I don't think we're discussing who's the better horse, we're discussing who is the better Cheltenham horse; Denman has never finished out the first two on EVERY run he's had at Cheltenham, has Kauto!? No.

This is going to go in loops. No matter what I type here the result will be the same you will dispute it.

dwm rather than me posting a reply please explain how the presence if denman caused kauto's early blunder in the gold cup this year? When it occurred behind a sedate pace set by carruthers.

Also bud, you are taking such a simplistic view as a statisticis it's pointless to debate it. The fact you compare kauto 4 years apart over different distances on different courses (old and new) means your augment to me is the hight of simplistic, not only do you do that but you compare out of the blue blunders that ALL horses make, to a constant round of bad jumping, again hight of simplistic. So really this is pointless for me to rebut this as I will receive poetry much the same response.

I if flip a coin five times and four times it comes up heads, I'll, based on only results, come to the conclusion that heads is the more likely outcome. But if I use my brain I can realize that the element of chance is present in this and that logically this is not correct.

Denman has run five times at cheltenham and last three times. There's another simplistic view.

5 runs at Cheltenham,

2006 Champ Chase - Falls at 3rd fence on Old Course over 2 miles.
2007 Gold Cup - Flawless jumping bar last fence, wins Gold Cup.
2008 Gold Cup - Beaten 7 lengths by Denman while making 11 mistakes at fences on both circuits.
2009 Gold Cup - Flawless round of jumping, highest offical rating given to a Gold Cup winner.
2010 Gold Cup - Massive Blunder at the 8th fence completely wrecks his chance.

So that's 4 runs whose outcome has nothing to do with Denman. So the belief that Kauto can't live with Denman "turning the screw" is based off one race, 2008 Gold Cup. It's impossible to draw conclusions from one race. Otherwise Snoopy Loopy and Tricky Trickster are world beaters.

Next his 3 defeats, all jumping errors that have cost him at Cheltenham.

Firstly the Champion Chase, his 3rd run out of novice company and falls at the 3rd fence.
2008 Gold cup, he is never fluent from the start and his errors increase as Denman picks up the pace on the 2nd circuit
2010 Gold Cup, perfection over the first eight fences when he blunders away his chances whith a terrible mistake at the 8th fence and is beaten from there.

Firstly the similar errors of 06 and 10, where early unforced errors resulted in his defeat. Now what is similar about the two, they both came at the same track, Cheltenham on the same going. What is different, they were on different courses the old and new courses, they were 4 years apart, the 2006 error came early in Kauto's career at his first time at the track. The 2010 error came on the back of foot perfect jumping in his previous four consecutive Grade 1 chase wins, including the previous years Gold Cup. This is rightfully attributed to the noseband fitted.

The similarities with 4 of those 5 races are he has been immaculate at his fences until he wins the gold cup or suffers a blunder out of nowhere. So what similarities can we take with 2008? Well he never fell, he never made a huge blunder, never looked like he'd fall, he just had a shocker round of jumping at fence after fence from the off. Like in football a team can play terrible and be beaten or they can play well and then have a clamity mistake and concede a goal. The conclusions you draw from the game are different.

Lets look at late 2007 & 2008, Kauto had only half a length win from Exotic Dancer in the Betfair Chase, he lost to Denman in the Gold Cup, lost to Our Vic at Aintree and lost to Snoopy Loopy in the Betfair Chase, all those came on the back of 5 or less weeks between races and the three defeats on the back of jumping errors. Nicholls came to the - clearly correct - conclusion that the horse is best when run fresh, aided with the fitting of a noseband, career (and all time best) official ratings were then posted at Cheltenham, Kempton and imo Haydock.

So what has happened here is, three things, Kauto is better fresh, the noseband helped his jumping, and age has increased his stamina even further. These things make it evident how utterly different not only the 2006 Champ Chase Kauto is from the 2010 Kauto, but how different the Kauto who turned up in 2008 and 2009 were.

The whole crux of my arguement to Kautos superiority is that we take his consistency for granted. We never bring up Denmans 6 losses from his last 7 runs, or that Imperial Commander has won only 3 of his 8 chases out of novice company, all coming at Cheltenham. A simple question, can't Kauto Star have a bad day at the races, or make a mistake simply because he is not a machine? Do all of Kauto's mistakes have to be attributed to a definable factor?

The greatest testament to Kauto Star is that he has never put in a good performance and been beaten. The closest he ever came was last years Betfair Chase to Imperial Commander and that is all the proof you need as to how good that horse actually is.

It's these conclusions that are drawn from such limited "dirty data" as we call it, that irritate so much, Imperial Commander lost twice at Kempton, first time the yard was sick the second time he was unsighted and blundered the 2nd fence yet the simplistic view "he doesn't go right handed" & "he hates Kempton". Those may be true, but it's impossible to draw that conclusion based on his last two runs.

The point is, despite people talking about fact's, fact's are indeed facts, if I flip a coin 3 times and get heads 3 times they are facts. But to draw the conclusion that I will only get heads if I flip it again is clearly wrong.

Ok simplistic view, previous form in the race you say, Denman has ran in three gold cups and lost twice, kauto has run in four and lost twice. So that's a better gold cup form than Denman.

Also Kauto Star has been a far better at jumper than Denman since he had the noseband fitted. Denman has fallen twice in the past year or so. Kauto's was faultless in four grade 1's until the mistake at Cheltenham.

As for the original topic, Denman ran his heart out and was soundly beaten by a better horse in Imperial Commander. Kauto just beat Imperial Commander in heavy ground at Haydock, there by Kauto is level with IC on that form and IC had confirmed himself superior to Denman. Hence their current prices.

Looking at Denmans record before and after the heart problems - 11112111111111 and 22F1U24 i can see why people think Denmans time is gone but there are plausible excuses for Newbury (fitness) and Punchestown (right-handed) which are arguably down to the trainer and make him look more on the downgrade than he really his.
Hes obviously not the beast he was before the op when he could have taken these excuses into a race and still piled on the pain but the newer Denman has still been bang there in the shake up in all of his 3 big races since the op. And the last 2 gold cups havent really been run to suit. Just seems like a gamble to dismiss him from the top top class bracket when there's still the possibilty they could get some small improvement this season, never mind him declining.

Denmans jumped better there and less prone to errors,thats the key to me and the reason why imo prices are wrong.
We have to agree to disagree my friend.

To be honest he probably cant,but imo Denman is currently too big a price,and i would never be afraid of betting against one horse this far from the race.None of us know what will happen re the Gold Cup contenders this season,but what i do know,or think,is that Denman imo is value at the odds.However I would still be afraid of Kauto cos i know what he can do when he performs.
If Kauto and Denman swapped prices,i would have a dabble on Kauto,cos then he would be value.

CVB, credit to you my friend for loyalty, tenacity and stamina.  I'm sure if Kauto and Denman could read they'd be as effusive in their praise of your performances on this forum as you are of theirs on the racecourse. All the best to you.