Why is Denman more than double the price of Kauto Star for the GC!?

Plenty of very progressive 3milers coming to the GC this year and no doubt that it wont be a 3 horse race like last year, the market will be very tight.

I think taking Denman the Hennessy is pure madness too, im not being funny but he is going to have to carry 12st against some very good younger horses, better than he faced last year, and the horse is a year older.

Crewebish, you could also argue those progressive three milers have never been asked to run at the brutal gallop that the Gold Cup is run.

There's been plenty of progressive horses who've looked fantastic and have got no-where near the standard required just for THAT RACE.

You can't buy experience. I'm inclined to agree with the opening poster though that Denman has as much chance as Kauto in my opinion, so the prices head-to-head on offer are ridiculous.

That's the beauty with Denman, he's a relentless galloper and jumps well enough (on the whole) so he can turn any race into his kind of race!

I don't think he'll win the Hennessey this year, too much on his plate, but I can understand why they're running him, he's going for a record third win and loves it! What price for the Gold Cup if he was to win!?

I agree there are plenty of progressive types coming though, personally I think if Burton Port gets Barry G on his back he'll have a massive chance...my main point was Denman's price in relation to Kauto!

The reason Denman is twice the price of Kauto is that Imperial Commander confirmed his superiority over Denman in this years Gold Cup while Kauto fell and hasn't been beaten when completing since early 2008.

Also on all three runs this year Denman has appeared to be on the wane. While Kauto and IC ran to the same mark in the befair chase. That being the only race where a mistake hasn't cost one or the other any chance of winning.

Personally I don't think any of the three horses above will win the Gold Cup.

Dont know,he shouldnt be imo,and Denman would be the one i would back at the prices,no doubt.
Yes,Kauto fell and Denman finished the race,but i dont see that as a valid reason for the odds.Or are we saying its better to fall and not know,or finish 2nd.Its a Gold Cup and they have to jump,Kauto failed and Denman finished 2nd.Penalise Denman?? Not for me.

Ruby was hard at work on Kauto before he fell in the Gold Cup; he's a great horse but he's soft, he can't live with Denman's relentless gallop! Had Kauto not fallen I very much doubt he would of got near the leaders! Don't want to get into a who's best discussion, but the track and the race is much more suited to Denman than Kauto.

Ok I can see this is headed for another kauto denman  discussion / argument. So I'll try make this my last post in this thread.

Firstly dwm Kauto made and awful mistake early in the race from which no horse could  realistically recover. Also Kauto is soft?, riiiiiight.

Denman was beaten 7 lengths by a horse kauto had beaten twice last season. Also Denman looked poor and was beaten on his other two runs this year. Basically the horse looked like he was in decline.

So, personal opinions aside, his current price is a reflection that he has to prove he is not in decline, while kauto's price reflects there has yet to be any evidence of decline. He had the mishap in the gold cup, but denman and imperial commander lost three of their for starts last season.

Basically the current prices are a pretty good reflection of the market at this stage. Personal opinions aside.

Whether right or wrong, I think the notion that Denman may 'have gone' at the game is the main reason why his price for the GC is so much higher than that for Kauto. Of course, that makes it dangerous to oppose Denman in the GC market, as his price will collapse if he manages to put in a blistering performance and prove his doubters wrong before the GC.

I would be happy if the market works to set up a nice price for Imperial Commander in the GC renewal. At the right price, he looks the most solid bet, imo. One of the younger horses may impress enough this season to make me change my mind, but I am not holding my breath on that. I like Pandorama, though not necessarily for the GC.

Its possible both have gone at the game.Kautos last run was not good and not been seen since.as i keep saying,its about jumping!!
If i were pricing up the GC i would have them a lot closer than they are now,for sure.

Yes, it's interesting how the market is reading it at this point. Seems people are more ready to give Kauto the benefit of the doubt that he still has it in him to win another GC, than they are willing to give the same benefit of the doubt to Denman.

My only firm take on the market at this stage is that I think there may still be a tendency for people to underestimate Imperial Commander's achievements.

Still not convinced Kauto won at Haydock ;)

Yes the game in about jumping bud, but denman fell this year, imperial commander fell this year (and blundered in king george) kauto fell this year. But on the whole all three are excellent jumpers. It's unwise to oppose any of them based on the fact they all fell this year.

I wonder why you are forgiving Denman his jumping error while not doing the same for kauto? We are now entering the realm of personal bias.

CVByrne do you honestly think this is about personal bias!?
Kauto & Denman have run against each other in three Gold Cups; Denman outperformed Kauto in the first by winning, Kauto beat Denman in the second but given the circumstances Denman ran above what anyone could of expected of him, and Denman outperformed Kauto in the third!
People can forgive Kauto his jumping mistakes all they like, but the facts are his jumping is exposed in the Gold Cup because Denman has the ability to grind him down; hence the soft comment!
In the two runs Denman has been fully fit for, he has gallopped off in front and Kauto can't match it! I'm not saying one is better than the other, im suggesting that this ONE RACE is more suited to Denman than it is to Kauto Star!

And that is the end of the thread.

It was ok when discussing the reasons for the current prices of the gold cup principles, but now we're back to the same old kauto denman stuff that has been done ad nausium.

No bias from me mate,you should know better.Just talking about the merits of both horses for next March,and to me there aint a lot between them.

I meant you prefer Denman to Kauto and I the other way around.

Anyway I'm just going to avoid the long drawn out Kauto Denman threads, neither are reigning champion and both would have their best years behind them now. Best to focus on the exciting prospect we have on our hands for the champion hurdle.

Solwhit vs Fly 3 at Punchestown should kick things off nicely.

I dont really prefer one or the other to be honest. although having said that,I must admit i do like front runners and was really taken with Denmans Gold Cup,and i was really impressed with his 2 Hennesseys,but i have been taken with a few of Kautos performances as well.In particular when i went to Ascot to add him to my photo collection,and he rewarded me with an exhibition of jumping that was breathtaking.

As much as I love Kauto nothing will ever top Demans 2nd Hennessy for me. Magic, truly jaw dropping performance. Brings a year to my eye every time I watch it.

Kauto's best wins are always just  spectacles of sheer brilliance, he's never had a close fought finish in any race that meant much to his career.

Yeh,i was lucky enough to be at Newbury for his 2nd Hennessey.Scenes i have never witnessed before at a racetrack,people sprinting to the winners enclosure like mad people.
Should be going to kempton this year on Boxing Day,just hope i aint left it a year too late,dont think so as i think Kauto will win it again,but just dont know till we see him again.

Haha, CV you're ridiculous! You've turned this into a Kauto vs. Denman thread all by yourself! How are we supposed to discuss the merit of each price without comparing the two!? At the end of the day they're both brilliant; Kauto on a flat track, Denman on an undulating track. Cheltenham is undulating, Denman is therefore superior, so why the difference in price!?
For me...Burton Port wins the Gold Cup anyway, just suprised by the gulf in price of the Nicholls pair.

We are discussing the relative prices of Denman and Kauto; how are you meant to do this without comparing their efforts in previous Gold Cups and at the course itself?

CVB, using the Kauto fall is a massive excuse in my opinion. The pace quickened, Ruby was hard at work anyway, and he fell - he couldn't live with it and won't do so again at Cheltenham at his age giving the type of horse that he is (again in my opinion).

I'm not saying Denman will win it, but he looks the most likely to get the course and - most importantly - get around the course.

The prices should be much closer.

I said I am not going to get into a Kauto Denman debate, going over all the same old stuff over and over when it's clear opinions have been formed about these two and no amount of typing is going to change those opinions.

I'm tired of it. It's the same old argument brought up by Denman fans and Kauto fans and one of the main reasons a large amount of good and knowledgeable posters have left these forums and gone to purple.

Energy should be spent discussing horses where opinions can be changed by another poster who has a different take on things and insightful views that you have overlooked. That's what this place used to be like.

Whats Purple cv??

bet daq, you may have noticed the weekend thread from the Antepost forum is gone, it's movedthere along with pretty much everyone who posted in it.

I think the problem is there are far too many snobs in the Betfair forum, who feel that discussing tabloid topics such as Denman and Kauto Star a bit beneath them, and an insult to the knowledge they have credited themselves with!
There aren't enough genuine horse racing fans in the world, so it's nice to come on here throw a few opinions about and find out what others are thinking; it's all a bit of fun mate, get over it, and yourself!

It WAS fun mate, but I've posted about a million words on these two horses, they are two of my favourite horses ever. Love them to bits, but there's been too many arguments that go over the exact same points with both sides totally intransigent and no matter what happens on the racecourse views will never be changed. I'm just tired if this topic and tired of how I defend Kauto with every little comment made about him.

Simply to me, he's never run a great race and been defeated. The day that happens is the last season we'll see him on a racecourse. Denman is the only horse to beat Kauto into 2nd in a Grade 1. That day Kauto had a shocker in the jumping department. If he had jumped well and still been beaten by Denman I would never argue the point.

The simple truth is we've never seen Denman and Kauto at their peak both run a great race at the same time in the Gold Cup. We never will.

Anyway, I'm just laying out my opinion on the matter. I refuse to be drawn into a discussion on this though. There are as I said the guts of a million words posted by myself over the past 3 years on the topic.

So CV because you don't want to discuss it (even though you've just posted your OWN thoughts on the subject and gave your reasons why you favour one or the other), no-one else is allowed to make a comment about the future races between them?

If you're bored of saying the same words, stop replying to the thread and give someone else a chance to voice their opinion.

The thread doesn't stop just because you've spouted a million words on the subject.

Giving my opinion is not discussing it, discussion is back and forth, point and counter point.

I'm saying I don't want to get into a discussion on the two horses again. It was great when I thought Kauto would prove my point in the Gold Cup, but I don't think he'll win next year.

So the discussion to me is in the past tense. Nither will win the Gold Cup and who beats who between the two come March is irrelevant as both are past their best.

But you can by all means discuss them to your hearts content, but you clearly seem more interested in posting about me.

Let me please ask you one question then CV because I am interested in your opinion; I have enjoyed your opinion on other topics that have been discussed.

You say we have not seen Kauto and Denman perform to their best at the same time; a point I totally agree with! Do you not think this is because they are two very different horses though!? For me Kauto's fluency and ability to glide through gears in a race means he is very much suited to a less demanding track such as Kempton, whereas Denman's all round powerful running style is more suited to a real testing track like Cheltenham!

For me at least, Denman is a more natural Cheltenham horse which is why when fully fit he's had the upper hand over Kauto in both starts!

I don't think it's an irrelevant discussion, because I genuinely believe the horse leading the Gold Cup entering the straight come March will be Denman; something may power past him as Imperial Commander did, it may not! They price is very tempting for a horse to not!

Have to agree with some points raised on here, not been posting long but have read the forum for quite a while and CVB you do seem to let your feelings about Kauto influence any reasonable discussion about him. Should someone question his ability to be as effective at one track opposed to another you immediately accuse them of being biased against him. No-one is biased against him mate, we all realise what a marvellous horse he is, that should not however preclude people discussing or voicing their opinions about whether he is as effective and at his optimum at one track or another without being accused of being anti Kauto.

Decided to have a dabble on Denman,price is too big.Of those i expect to line up against him i have doubts about all of them.IC should be fav on the strength of this years race,but no guarantees he will be as good,and he did not finish the season well.
Just think Denman is the value.

Firstly I don't mean bias. I mean opinions are formed on these two and no evidence will ever change peoples mind. You'd think the 2009 gold cup would have proven kauto easily stays the gold cup trip yet the non stayer opinion persists.

The 2008 gold cup shows how much physical stamina kauto star has. Bobby Dazzler had an excellent post  and detailed post describing how much a bad jump takes out of a horse. A a horse inhales as he extends his legs and takes each stride and exhales in the opposite motion.

So when a horse leaps a fence he inhales and exhales after landing. But a bad jump will interrupt this, winding a house to an extent. This not only slows a horse down but will deprive his muscles of oxegen resulting in a build up of lactic acid in his muscles sooner than it would had his rhythm been uninterrupted.

So what does this tell us? It tels us the kauto stars possesses exceptional physical stamina to come 2nd, 7 lengths down on Denman in 2008 given the considerable number of jumping mistakes he made.

So, the training advantages achieved in the 08/09 season, fitting a nose band and running the horse fresh resulted in an improved horse. Also it is well known that stamina increases as a horse ages at the expense of speed. In kauto's case this resulted in improvement given his speed was already unmatched in the staying division. The result was three wins build on stamina last year, the gold cup win, the betfair chase win in heavy going, and king george win behind nacarat's relentless gallop.

People would like to say kauto is not a cheltenham horse, the evidence of this is minimal. People quickly dismiss his two gold cup wins due to a lack of Denman and a lack of a to if his game Denman. That leaves 08 where I have outlined how physically excellent that performance was in defeat.

We are left with this years fall. The mistake that cost him ant chance came early in the race. The pace was sedate so that couldn't be a reason for the blunder, it was early in the race so he wasn't tired. So like any other horse he simply made an unforced blunder, even arkle did it in his 3rd gold cup, Denman did it at Newbury. It happens.

He'd jumped awesome at every fence at every track since the betfair chase in 08. Why given exactly the same conditions and a similar pace did he jump like a stag in 07 and 09 yet make the early mistake in 10? It is likely to be just an unfortunate mistake.

So to summarize, given his four gold cup runs it's clear to me he totally gets the trip and has no problems with the cheltenham fences either.

Fact is though CV,he has had problems with the Cheltenham fences mate.When 2nd behind Denman,this year,and the QM early on in his career.
Excuses might be there mate,but that is fact.
Denman on the other hand has hardly put a foot wrong at Chelt,as far as i can remember anyway.

Don't say fact, facts are indisputable, this is far from indisputable.

Firstly we need to exclude the 06 Champ Chase, it's run on a different course, over a different distance and was 5 seasons ago in only Kauto's 3rd run outside novice company.

To say Kauto has a problem with Cheltenham fences then why has he had such different experiences with them in his four Gold Cups? In 2008 he was not fluent and jumped poorly from the start. While in 2010 he was jumping excellently well before out of nowhere a huge blunder. In his other two Gold Cups he won on the back of runs near faultless rounds of jumping.

Kauto has run in 4 Betfair chases and has run poorly and unseated in one, he could easily have fallen in one of his four runs at Kempton. Denman has fallen on his last run at Newbury does that now mean he has a problem with the track? It simply does not stand up to scrutiney that Kauto has a problem with Cheltenham and more likely that his 2010 mishap was simply that, a mishap that almost every chaser suffers a couple of times in their career.

I have a masters degree in statistics so I know a thing or two about drawing conclusions based on evidence and it is the definition of impossible to draw a conclusion that Kauto has a problem with Cheltenham fences based on 4 gold cups, and two wins. Especially given the problems with the fences in 2008 and 2010 are not even similar. They are like Denmans Newbury defeat and his Punchestown defeat, one was a blunder out of nowhere, one was a laboured error strewn run from the start.

At the end of the day Kauto is still just a horse, and horses, like humans can make mistakes for no apparent reason what so ever. Sometimes there is no conclusions to be drawn.

I think if youve got Kauto, Denman and IC in your book then youd be unlucky not to have the winner (daring gambler that I am).
Now looks like the time to back Denman - imo even if he gets beat in the hennessy he will shorten for the brave run in defeat.
IC should only get bigger as he'll run a shocker somewhere before next march. Not sure with Kauto. Obvious would be to back him after down royal I suppose.

You do love an excuse for Kauto CV!
Firstly, who did Kauto beat to win the 2007 Gold Cup!? The field was poor to say the least.
Secondly, how good was Kauto's win in 2009, given Denman, who climbed off his sick bed to run in the race only finished a handful of lengths back in second!?
Thirdly, what has been the one common factor in Kauto's poor jumping performances at Cheltenham!? A fit and healthy Denman.
Fourthly, it is a bit unfair to compare Denman's fall at Newbury to Kauto's errors at Cheltenham; Denman took off a mile from the fence and landed on top of it, still staying on his feet before UNSEATING AP at the next, not falling. Kauto's errors in the 2008 and 2010 Gold Cup's were both down to Denman turning the screw on him! I'm not neccesarily saying Kauto does not perform around Cheltenham, he obviously does, what im saying is he is not as suited as Denman, who even you must conceed LOVES the place!
I therefore refer you to my opening point...why is Denman such a bigger price than Kauto!? Why are they not the same price at least!? Use your masters, crunch your numbers and tell me, I really want to know!

Backed Denman too...obviously, win and place. I agree you need to get him before the Hennessey, Kauto's price I don't think will move, Imperial Commander should win at Haydock, but again I think his price is fair at the moment and won't move!

You have lost your credibility dwm when you attribute Kauto's jumping errors to the presence of Denman. Kauto's 2010 mistake was so early in the race it was nothing to do with Denman or any horse "turning the screw".

That leaves one race with which to draw your conclusions. The 2008 Gold Cup. By that logic Kauto was defeated by Snoopy Loopy in the betfair chase in 2008. Let's draw conclusions from that one race too. Or how many times has Denman lost? since his 2008 gold cup win?  is it 6 losses from 7 races?

The bottom line is there isn't enough evidence to draw any definitive conclusions about Kauto at Cheltenham. So that leaves opinion. Which will not be changed by any amount of words so what's the point?

reading this topic is very interesting with some great posts
i believe kauto is without doubt the best chaser i have ever seen. an amazing combination of speed and stamina. and jumps like a stag
for anyone to think his fall in last seasons gold cup was anything to do with his inability to cope with the pace is off the rocker. it was far too early in the race for that. and the first circuit was run at a very steady pace anyway

i think a kauto at his peak against a denman at his peak in the gold cup would result in a victory for denman. cheltenham is very much his track. any other track and my money would be on kauto. everyday

but for people to want to back denman for this years gold cup is nothing short of madness. in 08 he was amazing and carried my confident money, but that performance ripped his heart out.

his 2nd hennessy win was incredible, but his other runs were pounds short of his best

and now as an 11 year old people want to back him against younger and improving sorts

his and kautos best days are behind them. they are 2 greats but its time for new champions

why cant the denman fans realise that in 2008 kauto wasnt fully fit.a horse thats won 2 tingle creeks  cant be run off its feet by a horse whose main attribute is his relentless gallop.the kauto knockers also refer to cheltenham as not his track.hes won 2 gcs for christ sake.denman is a fabulous racehorse but if you want to know whos the better of the two just look at what theyve won.a handicap is a handicap no matter what the sponsers name is

he won "only a handicap" off 174!!!
carrying 174 is the best way to rate how good the horse is, compared to everyone running off levels
it was an outstanding performance
can you not see that???

Denmans 2009 Hennessy. The only word to describe it is. Magic.

As for 2008, we'll never know what was the reason for Kauto's shocking round of jumping. But he wasn't fluent from the start and Denman only took it up on the final circuit. The Aintree and Betfair chases later the same year point to what Nicholls said. He needs to be run fresh.

Simply though, had Kauto jumped round perfectly in 2008 and still been beaten there would be no doubt in my mind who was the better horse. Didn't happen though, infact Kauto has never ever been beaten when putting in a good round of jumping. Not once in his career. (well maybe back in 2005 fto defeat to monkerhostin).

.

I fail to see how I've lost credibility for suggesting Denman forces Kauto's jumping errors. Two runs against a fully fit Denman, two runs packed with jumping errors. The clue's are there for me; what's your opinion based on!?

2rivets - I don't think we're discussing who's the better horse, we're discussing who is the better Cheltenham horse; Denman has never finished out the first two on EVERY run he's had at Cheltenham, has Kauto!? No.

CV,it IS fact that Kauto has had jumping problems at Chelt.So i WILL say it.Fallen twice and a fair few errors behind Denman.That is fact mate.Same as he has also proved he can jump them,that is fact as well.

To the poster that said Denman and Kauto are past their best,may be
right.But are the up and comong ones good enough to beat them anyway??Only if they have regressed a fair bit,as i think most are a fair way behind those two,(IC and a fit Weapons Amnesty excluded),i would be confident Denman and Kauto would still be big players.So imo Denman at 14 or thereabouts represents value.

This is going to go in loops. No matter what I type here the result will be the same you will dispute it.

dwm rather than me posting a reply please explain how the presence if denman caused kauto's early blunder in the gold cup this year? When it occurred behind a sedate pace set by carruthers.

Also bud, you are taking such a simplistic view as a statisticis it's pointless to debate it. The fact you compare kauto 4 years apart over different distances on different courses (old and new) means your augment to me is the hight of simplistic, not only do you do that but you compare out of the blue blunders that ALL horses make, to a constant round of bad jumping, again hight of simplistic. So really this is pointless for me to rebut this as I will receive poetry much the same response.

I if flip a coin five times and four times it comes up heads, I'll, based on only results, come to the conclusion that heads is the more likely outcome. But if I use my brain I can realize that the element of chance is present in this and that logically this is not correct.

Denman has run five times at cheltenham and last three times. There's another simplistic view.

Corrections to below post.

*poetry = pretty

statisticis = statistician

last 3 times = lost 3 times

5 runs at Cheltenham,

2006 Champ Chase - Falls at 3rd fence on Old Course over 2 miles.
2007 Gold Cup - Flawless jumping bar last fence, wins Gold Cup.
2008 Gold Cup - Beaten 7 lengths by Denman while making 11 mistakes at fences on both circuits.
2009 Gold Cup - Flawless round of jumping, highest offical rating given to a Gold Cup winner.
2010 Gold Cup - Massive Blunder at the 8th fence completely wrecks his chance.

So that's 4 runs whose outcome has nothing to do with Denman. So the belief that Kauto can't live with Denman "turning the screw" is based off one race, 2008 Gold Cup. It's impossible to draw conclusions from one race. Otherwise Snoopy Loopy and Tricky Trickster are world beaters.

Next his 3 defeats, all jumping errors that have cost him at Cheltenham.

Firstly the Champion Chase, his 3rd run out of novice company and falls at the 3rd fence.
2008 Gold cup, he is never fluent from the start and his errors increase as Denman picks up the pace on the 2nd circuit
2010 Gold Cup, perfection over the first eight fences when he blunders away his chances whith a terrible mistake at the 8th fence and is beaten from there.

Firstly the similar errors of 06 and 10, where early unforced errors resulted in his defeat. Now what is similar about the two, they both came at the same track, Cheltenham on the same going. What is different, they were on different courses the old and new courses, they were 4 years apart, the 2006 error came early in Kauto's career at his first time at the track. The 2010 error came on the back of foot perfect jumping in his previous four consecutive Grade 1 chase wins, including the previous years Gold Cup. This is rightfully attributed to the noseband fitted.

The similarities with 4 of those 5 races are he has been immaculate at his fences until he wins the gold cup or suffers a blunder out of nowhere. So what similarities can we take with 2008? Well he never fell, he never made a huge blunder, never looked like he'd fall, he just had a shocker round of jumping at fence after fence from the off. Like in football a team can play terrible and be beaten or they can play well and then have a clamity mistake and concede a goal. The conclusions you draw from the game are different.

Lets look at late 2007 & 2008, Kauto had only half a length win from Exotic Dancer in the Betfair Chase, he lost to Denman in the Gold Cup, lost to Our Vic at Aintree and lost to Snoopy Loopy in the Betfair Chase, all those came on the back of 5 or less weeks between races and the three defeats on the back of jumping errors. Nicholls came to the - clearly correct - conclusion that the horse is best when run fresh, aided with the fitting of a noseband, career (and all time best) official ratings were then posted at Cheltenham, Kempton and imo Haydock.

So what has happened here is, three things, Kauto is better fresh, the noseband helped his jumping, and age has increased his stamina even further. These things make it evident how utterly different not only the 2006 Champ Chase Kauto is from the 2010 Kauto, but how different the Kauto who turned up in 2008 and 2009 were.

The whole crux of my arguement to Kautos superiority is that we take his consistency for granted. We never bring up Denmans 6 losses from his last 7 runs, or that Imperial Commander has won only 3 of his 8 chases out of novice company, all coming at Cheltenham. A simple question, can't Kauto Star have a bad day at the races, or make a mistake simply because he is not a machine? Do all of Kauto's mistakes have to be attributed to a definable factor?

The greatest testament to Kauto Star is that he has never put in a good performance and been beaten. The closest he ever came was last years Betfair Chase to Imperial Commander and that is all the proof you need as to how good that horse actually is.

It's these conclusions that are drawn from such limited "dirty data" as we call it, that irritate so much, Imperial Commander lost twice at Kempton, first time the yard was sick the second time he was unsighted and blundered the 2nd fence yet the simplistic view "he doesn't go right handed" & "he hates Kempton". Those may be true, but it's impossible to draw that conclusion based on his last two runs.

The point is, despite people talking about fact's, fact's are indeed facts, if I flip a coin 3 times and get heads 3 times they are facts. But to draw the conclusion that I will only get heads if I flip it again is clearly wrong.

Yes it is simplistic,so what? The opening poster was talking about the relative odds for the Gold Cup.I chose previous form in the race in answering the question,that is my right.When both horses have been at their peak they have run great races there,and other times Denman has performed better imo,cos of his better jumping.Whether that proves me correct is another matter.I am well aware of Denmans record recently away from Chelt,but i am judging on when he is trained to run at his best,and that imo is Newbury in Nov and Cheltenham in March.
Whatever,i still think they should be a lot closer in the betting.

Ok simplistic view, previous form in the race you say, Denman has ran in three gold cups and lost twice, kauto has run in four and lost twice. So that's a better gold cup form than Denman.

Also Kauto Star has been a far better at jumper than Denman since he had the noseband fitted. Denman has fallen twice in the past year or so. Kauto's was faultless in four grade 1's until the mistake at Cheltenham.

As for the original topic, Denman ran his heart out and was soundly beaten by a better horse in Imperial Commander. Kauto just beat Imperial Commander in heavy ground at Haydock, there by Kauto is level with IC on that form and IC had confirmed himself superior to Denman. Hence their current prices.

The time to back Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup will be after the King George. Denmans price will only get worse for the gold cup if he has a disaster in the Hennessy.

Looking at Denmans record before and after the heart problems - 11112111111111 and 22F1U24 i can see why people think Denmans time is gone but there are plausible excuses for Newbury (fitness) and Punchestown (right-handed) which are arguably down to the trainer and make him look more on the downgrade than he really his.
Hes obviously not the beast he was before the op when he could have taken these excuses into a race and still piled on the pain but the newer Denman has still been bang there in the shake up in all of his 3 big races since the op. And the last 2 gold cups havent really been run to suit. Just seems like a gamble to dismiss him from the top top class bracket when there's still the possibilty they could get some small improvement this season, never mind him declining.

Denman never had an operation. This is a myth. What he had was a fairly common heart condition which only required medication. Also Denman only had 4 runs outside of novice company before the heart condition. So you can't really compare novice form, especially over hurdles to open company chases.

Denmans jumped better there and less prone to errors,thats the key to me and the reason why imo prices are wrong.
We have to agree to disagree my friend.

What makes you think Denman as an 11yo can reverse form with Imperial Commander?

To be honest he probably cant,but imo Denman is currently too big a price,and i would never be afraid of betting against one horse this far from the race.None of us know what will happen re the Gold Cup contenders this season,but what i do know,or think,is that Denman imo is value at the odds.However I would still be afraid of Kauto cos i know what he can do when he performs.
If Kauto and Denman swapped prices,i would have a dabble on Kauto,cos then he would be value.

bud can I just say you are easily one of the best posters on this forum. Please set up a purple account.

If it wasn't always a Denman or Kauto argument this place would be better. Never will a race have me as emotional as    Denman's 2nd Hennessy. I watched Ireland beat the world champions South Africa after that and my mate kept saying to me as I zoned out, "still thinking of Denman?". I'd reply "How did he do that".

Just because I think Kauto is a better horse than Denman doesn't mean I don't love Denman. I had a thing called the Denman Christmas fund, basically a change jar where I'd put every penny of it on Denman to win the Lexus. I was there, he was effortless in victory. It was a great day. I'm saddened by the fact I can't simply praise both Denman and Kauto on here without a comparison.

Greatness in motion and The Tank. I'll tell people about them when they are gone.

CVB, credit to you my friend for loyalty, tenacity and stamina.  I'm sure if Kauto and Denman could read they'd be as effusive in their praise of your performances on this forum as you are of theirs on the racecourse. All the best to you.

Thank you steeple, my apologies for not replying in the IC thread. I read your post and felt I couldn't have full discussion at the time, so didn't reply. I'm sure, along with bobby we will continue the discussion, as I'm a believer of what I said. I think the thread has been given a tad bit if credit too. Despite you being wrong ;)