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Cheltenham Festival
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These 72 comments are related to the topic:
Clerk's Choice
Clerk's Choice
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Replies: 72
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If you want to gamble on the horse the time is now. It's all very well wanting to wait and see him in the Fighting Fifth but if he does scoot up there he will be a single figure price.
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Depending on revised mark Id be tempted to give him entry in Elite Hurdle
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how long before jp makes an offer,its gonna happen,we all know it will.money talks,and lets be honest,that was an incredible performance,absolutely laughed at some very decent opposition
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Trainer indicates 4yo hurdle at Haydock is likely target now ground dependant...but says he should be fine on good to soft.
Doesn't fancy the Greatwood with large weight. |
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as if barizan was pushed to his limit on saturday... gd win yes, but will it trouble the bigger older horses yet, no imo.
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rated 162 now.
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where's that dan?
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He is rated 162.
Ive seen the ammendment soon on the jump amendments page of the Racing Authority website. |
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they go on the bha admin site early tuesday mornings. not sure where else they are published yet.
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thank you dan - won't be backing him in the Greatwood then!
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162??! What's Bino rated?
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RATING 2 MILES
174 173 172 Binocular (FR) 171 170 169 168 167 Khyber Kim (GB) 166 Hurricane Fly (IRE)* 165 Celestial Halo (IRE) Solwhit (FR)* 164 163 Go Native (IRE)* Thousand Stars (FR)* Those were how they were at the end of last season. 8th highest rated hurdler now?!? |
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2 mile hurdler...
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Looks like connections may as well aim the horse at the Arkle now!
OR162 - they're having a laff aren't they? Have they got a new-boy at the handicappers desk? Perhaps he's the same person that gave an OR128 rating to DREAM AHEAD and has now "back-pedalled" to OR126 - which still makes him "officially" a 2lb better horse than FRANKEL. And these people are paid to handicap. |
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he's basically taken the view that royal mix and barizan ran to their ratings. they fit in well with gilded age. they are all unchanged.
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actually they don't fit in well with the 4th. gilded age could easily have been dropped a few lbs.
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Barizan was flattered by his juvenile rating and that was proven on Saturday and having read the stable tour in todays RP connections are now schooling him over fences.
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Earned that mark well enough in the triumph and at punchestown for me deadloss. Was surely below that level saturday getting taken on the way he did and not hurdling at his best.
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Or did he warrant the mark running against his own division whereby something has to get a rating? The same reason why the majority of horses who go summer jumping get exposed off their marks when the better horses come out.
Couple of examples from last 2 years Simarian Rupestrian |
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So are you saying all the 4yos were over rated? Toubab did on in the swinton off 131.
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did ok..
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I think it's worth reflecting on how he actually performed on Saturday as well as the progress he might have made in the off season. He finished last season with three wins in class 4s in under four weeks ("easily", "very easily" "stayed on well")
As for Saturday's race, here's an extract from my earlier post: [i]I'm often as wary of horses winning off a very fast pace as those scooting in off a slow one, but his hurdling was most accomplished for one of his experience, and he won under hands and heels. He took a bump on take-off at the 2nd which didn't faze him. He slightly fluffed three out at what would have been a critical point for many, but he was travelling so well - as he had done throughout - that it didn't trouble him. Also, he not only has tactical pace and jumping skill, but looks most amenable, happy to be reined back as Molloy took a pull turning in, and immediately responsive when the jockey asked him to quicken (excellent ride, I thought). Almost certainly no flash in the pan given his progressive profile, seems to love Cheltenham, great traveller whose hurdling can only get even sharper, he makes a lot of value appeal for the Champion at 33s given that he'd be a third of the price if stabled in a top yard. [i] A lengthy way of saying that he wasn't one of these coming with a desperate late run off a punishing pace to just get up - as numerous 14/1 shots tend to do - he looked a very talented horse in everything he did at Cheltenham. Worth bearing in mind too that he's rated 7lbs better that Katchit was on the flat. Of more concern to me than anything else, as far as ante-post betting goes, is his ground preference. Although he's won on good to soft, he might not be able to reproduce Saturday's performance on anything worse than good. Time will tell. |
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No. Not all of them are. I think some are grossly flattered with their marks achieved in summer jumps race whilst others are forward 4yos who get a high mark which they cant possibly win off against seasoned handicappers.
The horses then have to race for a year more to find their feet/get dropped to a realistic mark. Either do this and pay training fees for a year or go novice chasing. This is what the connections of Barizan are going to do. I think you picked Toubab because of his proximity to Ultimate in the race at Kempton on Racing Post Chase day. Toubab went to the Swinton unexposed in England and the same can be said for Sanctuaire and Notus De La Tour who are both unexposed over hurdles when running well at Cheltenham in the Fred Winter. The same race Rupestrian was Pulled Up in. Architrave is now rated 138 after his win at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago. Do you think he could be competitive off this mark against older horses without the weight for age?! |
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Obviously toubab came to mind, but i can't think of many other highly rated 4yos that ran in all age hcps - and his form ties in with barizan through soldatino. I could also pick bothy - who won an older horse hcp off 120 before getting well held in the fred winter against 4yos off 127.
I don't see what relevance the summer jumping has regarding barizan. He was rated 138 going into the triumph, so his mark of 146 nothing to do with mopping up early seasons novice hurdles. Regarding architrave's rating, why would he ever need to race without his weight for age? The mark of 138 doesn't mean he can run to 138 off levels with an older horse. |
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I remember the Kempton day. Its the day you posted on here you were happy Mille Chief wasnt running when he sustained the injury that ended his season.
The Kempton race was Soldatinos first in this country and he hadnt done much work prior to Kempton. He will improve again from The Triumph and in time could develop into a World Hurdle horse. I wasnt talking specifically about Barizan with regard to summer jumping. I was just comparing that marks horses get in summer jumps tend to be too high when run against the better horses later in the season. This was why I highlighted Rupestrian, Simarian and I believe Architrave will go the same way. I believe the same can be said for horses who earn a juvenile rating (like Barizan) which is proven to be far too high when they tackle races as a 4 going on 5yo. Evan Williams obviously thinks the same and is schooling him in novice chases and not trying for a big handicap or graded race over hurdles. As for the wfa if Architrave didnt race again this season he would be running in all age handicaps off 138 and I dont think he would be competitive. |
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Deary me deadloss, i jokingly advised you not to run mille chief when you said he was 50/50 for kempton (but still fine for the triumph). I did actually apologise at the time, though i clearly shouldn't have bothered!
Anyway, back to the WFA. Should be a bigger stronger horse by the time the WFA has disappeared shouldn't he? Looked a nice horse to me so far, the rasen win is working out well, and he probably had a bit up his sleeve too. |
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He should be and might prove me wrong.
However, I think that he will prove to be another horse who gets a high mark early in the season which will make it impossible to win handicap hurdles against own age group/next season when is asked to race against the older horses. |
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Doesn't the 4yo WFA finishes at the end of August (2 mile hurdles that is)?
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Jockey Club member Michael Banks has had a permit and trained a few horses for most of the last thirty years - but rarely can he have had a day like Saturday, writes Dave Dickinson.
With Cheltenham welcoming back jumping for the first meeting of the season, the Sportingbet.com 4-y-o hurdle, looked to be between Triumph hurdle second Barizan (146), his Aintree conqueror Orsippus (142) and Royal Mix (141), who had beaten Ma Voici (137) on his hurdling bow at Newbury last November but had been absent since. It was obvious before the final flight that the Banks-trained Clerk’s Choice had not read the script, and he powered up the hill to win by no less than 21 lengths in a fast time. Given that last year’s winner of this race, Starluck, subsequently finished fifth in last March’s Champion Hurdle, this is now one small yard who can dream of success on the biggest stage without it being a total flight of fancy. Could the horse be flattered? Well, yes he could, as the early pace was nothing short of ridiculously fast. But Orsippus apart, most of the protagonists on Saturday seem to have run somewhere near their marks - I've therefore given Clerk's Choice full credit for his achievement, putting him up 31 pounds to 162. A mark which makes him by some way the highest rated four year old hurdler in training... source: BHA |
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Looks a very high rating considering he was racing against his own age and all their seasonal debuts, plus on ground they are unlikely to encounter again this season. Got to feel sorry for connections.
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TIMEFORM
16/10/10 CHELTENHAM (Hurdle) 16 furlongs, 110 yards. Gd/Frm 1 of 8 14/1 rat 150+ Tom Molloy CLERK'S CHOICE (IRE) looked a young hurdler going places fast, this a performance a league apart from his impressive efforts in lesser company in the spring, the way in which he travelled into contention and his most fluent jumping auguring really well for his step up further in class, even though the run of the race and the below-par opposition have to be taken into account, the view taken of the form very much on the conservative side; he coped well with the much stiffer track, though he wouldn't necessarily benefit from a slog. Worth noting from a time viewpoint that, on Sunday, Timeform reported the ground as Good - I see here they have amended it to good to firm. |
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Lets see where we are after todays race at haydock...
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I rest my case....
 over rated...to the extreme... |