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dwm767
15 Oct 10 06:29
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Date Joined: 07 May 06
| Topic/replies: 731 | Blogger: dwm767's blog
All the chat about Long Run, anyone read of plans for this future Gold Cup winner!? Mischief

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Replies: 68
By:
bigben
When: 15 Oct 10 08:49
Henrietta Knight was on ATR earlier in the week. She said his first target is The Tingle Creek, but shes not sure if they will go down The QM or Ryanair route after that.

She didnt sound convinced that he gets much further than 2 miles let alone the GC trip.
By:
bigben
When: 15 Oct 10 08:54
Sorry, i replied to the wrong thread Cry
By:
Brooksielad
When: 15 Oct 10 09:05
agreed Burton Port was beating them all and is still the underdog lol. Could be the dark horse imo
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 15 Oct 10 09:08
Backed him for the GC, he is supposed to run in the hennessy if Denman runs.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 26 Nov 10 20:13
Cant wait for tomorrow, I know its a hard race to win but this horse will not have a better chance than of winning the Hennessey tomorrow.

He is one the best jumpers of a fence I have seen in recent years, he is durable as they come and seems to go on any surface. The slight worry is that the newbury ground is 'tacky' and not all horses will enjoy it.
By:
saxon farm
When: 26 Nov 10 20:59
I'm sure BP will run well tomorrow (without winning), but I would really seriously fancy him for the Welsh National next month, if Hemmings & NJH are prepared to go that way.
GL.
By:
booster
When: 26 Nov 10 21:46
He's a solid horse but I'd have thought too slow for this. More of a Welsh or Scottish National type to me.
By:
toon4eva
When: 27 Nov 10 16:30
I backed him today and he ran a cracker, think he would have won if he hadn't belted the cross fence. Looks a thorough stayer so can understand national routes but for me 3 mile 2 round Cheltenham would suit just as well.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 27 Nov 10 16:32
Definitely a Gold Cup type horse, though still has plenty to find to match Imperial and Kauto- but no way should he be aimed at the Nationals, he's much too classy for that.
By:
Steeplechasing
When: 27 Nov 10 16:51
Best looking horse in the field today, I thought.  Hadn't been an admirer till now. Not sure if there's a GC in him but there'd be worse outsiders.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 27 Nov 10 17:00
Same with me Steeple. I've constantly underrated him since being slammed by Diamond Harry at Haydock receiving lots of weight. Not any more, he's a serious GC horse
By:
booster
When: 27 Nov 10 17:09
He's solid and seems to improve as the season progresses so should have a good season but just think he'll lack a turn of foot against the top horses.
By:
grade 1
When: 27 Nov 10 19:36
Chepstow or Kempton iyos?
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 27 Nov 10 19:38
I'd leave him alone until the Pillar or Aon
By:
booster
When: 27 Nov 10 20:05
As he's won right handed, Irish Grand National or Whitbread might be ultimate targets but just wondering whether he may be handicapped out of  things and have to take on the big boys after today
By:
R Carver
When: 27 Nov 10 21:23
FFT not sure either of those races would necesarilly suit him now, he looks a dour stayer, maybe actually be suited more by the GC than a trial.
By:
duffy
When: 27 Nov 10 23:47
done brilliant to get back and make that ground up after that mistake....really looks like a right old battler doesn't he.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 28 Nov 10 00:15
Horse racing is a funny old game, people may remember my DH fred.

I have never been so happy when coming 2nd.

I thought BP was a better jumper than DH, thats it. If timmy Murphy had rode DH today then i would be collecting a lot of money.
By:
revedesivola
When: 28 Nov 10 00:19
i remember that fred also and if im not mistaken i thought i said the jock wouldnt make a difference. interesting how he hung for timmy and not for daryl. maybe timmy hungLaugh
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 28 Nov 10 00:25
I took riding daryl as a positive today.

Timmy can be brilliant but he wont give the outside to anyone, rhen ride a horse like they are dancing brave.

DJ ride today was so brilliant i dont want to even talk about it.
By:
revedesivola
When: 28 Nov 10 00:28
yeehah chicken. i thought it was a v good decision to keep him up with the pace. i thought they might have kept him wide instead. he could easily have been swallowed up and hampered if he raced mid div. seems to be the place to win it from though. denners did anyhow
By:
magic carpet
When: 28 Nov 10 17:51
All season people seem to have been falling over themselves to find potential gold cup contenders from outside of the ageing trio of Imperial,Denman and Kauto Star and in Burton Port i strongly feel we have a future gold cup winner.Rapidly improving six year old with further scope for improvement grade one winner over fences and grade one placed over fences at the course with an abundence of stamina he looks way overpriced at his current odds
By:
blackburn1
When: 29 Nov 10 15:10
Backed Burton Port on saturday, see no reason why he would ever beat Diamond Harry
By:
booster
When: 29 Nov 10 16:24
Blackburn, I tend to agree and have backed Diamond Harry on each occasion he's beaten Burton Port but Henderson's horse does seem to progress throughout the season whereas Diamond Harry hasn't really done so in previous years. It could be that he's matured this year so may go on but that's the one doubt for me.

I still think the Queen Mother is his race if you think back to One Man who won The Hennessy off 10 stone but didn't stay the extended trip at Cheltenham.
By:
sintonian
When: 29 Nov 10 16:39
If Burton Port was a Gold Cup winner in waiting he'd have won at the weekend,imo.
By:
resner not lesnar
When: 29 Nov 10 16:59
I think at Cheltenham in the GC Burton Port would finish in front of DH, that track and time of year plays more to his strengths
By:
booster
When: 29 Nov 10 16:59
But he was racing off levels against Diamond Harry and had the rest well beaten. Personally I doubt he's a Gold Cup winner but a very solid Grade 2 possibly Grade 1 horse.
By:
resner not lesnar
When: 29 Nov 10 17:07
I don't think either will win the GC - certainly not this year. I think DH will always be at his best on a flat track, I thnk the undulations and stiff finish at Cheltenham will suit BP more. There wasn't much in it on Saturday and the elements in BP's favour will turn it round for me - still think both will be lucky to place this year if the big three turn up close to their bests
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 29 Nov 10 18:29
Hmmmm, not so sure, the Gold Cup tends to be won by a horse having his first run in it. Why, I'm not sure, but miles on the clock and the likelihood of a hard race in a previous renewal leaving a mark would be two obvious factors. With that in mind, and assuming that Weapons Amnesty stays on the sick list, I can't see a better first-time-candidate than Burton Port so far. Although both Sommersby and Sizing Europe would be interesting if aimed at the race.
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 29 Nov 10 18:39
i backed D H  on saturday but believe come march burton port can win the gold cup. people say he and d h have to improve to trouble kauto denman and imperial. Well just 2yrs ago imperial won the paddy power off 137 who thought he would win a gold cup then the big 3 are 11 11 and 10 come march burton port who won off 157 on saturday could be re assessed 167 not that much to find with improvement to come i am taking a bit of 20's
By:
resner not lesnar
When: 29 Nov 10 19:20
Thats a good point Desmond, one I hadn't considered previously. I also concur BP would be the better prospect of the two at Cheltenham. My thoughts against that though are I think we currently have 2 if not 3 horses in KS, Denman & IC that usual trends don't really apply to - Reclaiming GC's, winning 2nd Hennessy's etc. This year if one of them wins the GC the over 10's stat will go down as well.
By:
R Carver
When: 29 Nov 10 20:35
I like some of the posts on here. Just some quick thoughts...

DH is very classy, a wonderful horse, to see a horse travelling like that 2 out off a fast pace is a joy to me. He could improve as the season goes on, he may now be over his 'flakiness' and he looks a more mature horse this yr. I imagine he'll have a long break ahead of the festival, which is what the horse loves, and his trainer (although not having had a winner at the festival) is adept at readying a horse for a target.

BP could improve, looks mature, but i suspect most may feel he's been doing his improving on the track, particularly during a tough campaign last yr, and may have less scope for further improvement than DH.

However, all of DH's best performances have come at newbury (or on another flat, l/h track (Haydock))and usually after a break. BP was beaten only about a length by DH with DH receiving 1lb(jockey being 1lb overweight) on DH's beloved 'home' track. This was after BP walked through the cross fence. It is impossilbe to say, but i dont think it totally unreasonable to speculate that this mistake did not improve his chances of winning the race. This makes me think that at the festival, away from his beloved flat, l/h track, given how DH has run there before (although he has won there, even impressively, he never seems to handle the track brilliantly), and given how BP has run there before, relishing the hill, and given how the CGC is run, BP maybe represents better value for a place or better than DH (which may suggest Weapons A will run well if the ground is decent and he turns up).

I think we all tend to be taken in by classy, strong travelling horses rather than stayers and grinders. I could see BP runinng into a place more than DH, though maybe DH has matured and grown up and will be without the holes he appeared full of last yr. Either way, at this stage i cannot quite see either winning it.
By:
R Carver
When: 29 Nov 10 20:39
/\ - I also believe both horses will be campaigned perfectly for it.

Desmond, without wanting to name names, other than WA, DH and BP, i believe there are a few nice types and possible major players yet to run in it who did not run on Saturday.
By:
R Carver
When: 29 Nov 10 21:07
... But like you, i dont like the 'already tried' angle in the CGC.
By:
The Sawyer
When: 29 Nov 10 21:11
RC

What do you make of the RP ratings giving DH 172? If that is so, he would have won the 2004 Gold Cup (Sir Rem was given 170 for being beaten half a length by Best Mate).
By:
R Carver
When: 29 Nov 10 21:32
Hi The Sawyer - interesting mark, not seen those, I assume BP would have approx the same mark then and Denman about 180ish? Instinctively feels a bit high for me for DH. I am not sure BP is a 170ish horse, but maybe, strongly run staying test, possibly. Be interesting to see the official mark he gets on Weds (high 160s? i suppose from that its not far to posting a CGC mark).

In terms of the CGC, be interesting to see if DH can reproduce around that track. Do you think so? I dont know what mark will win this yr's CGC but i think Denman and Imperial's CGC wins achieved much higher marks than 172 and i could envisage (all being well) Imperial posting a similar mark this yr all being well (though DH is entitled to improve).

I didn't think the Sir Rembrandt BM CGC was a great race, though i thought it was a great effort from the great horse to win in those conditions which he really disliked.

What do you think?
By:
resner not lesnar
When: 29 Nov 10 21:35
TS, that kind of backs up my point about the usual trends not applying to the big three. In a regular year DH & BP would both be live contenders if not somewhere close to the head of the GC market. Currently we aren't in that situation as we have 3 horses capable of running on a regular basis to marks higher than most other horses that have gone before. That is if you believe in the ratings
By:
booster
When: 29 Nov 10 22:10
On ratings he's already good enough to win the 2 mile championship. His best hurdle performance was The Challow over 2 1/2 miles and he's got bags of speed and class which he'd use to great effect after a break, sitting in 4th or 5th and being brought with a run on the outside on the downhill run before using his stamina on the hill to grind down the pure 2 milers.
By:
R Carver
When: 29 Nov 10 22:13
Interesting angle Booster, not sure i'd back him, but i like the angle.
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