Burton Port

Henrietta Knight was on ATR earlier in the week. She said his first target is The Tingle Creek, but shes not sure if they will go down The QM or Ryanair route after that.

She didnt sound convinced that he gets much further than 2 miles let alone the GC trip.

Sorry, i replied to the wrong thread

agreed Burton Port was beating them all and is still the underdog lol. Could be the dark horse imo

Backed him for the GC, he is supposed to run in the hennessy if Denman runs.

Cant wait for tomorrow, I know its a hard race to win but this horse will not have a better chance than of winning the Hennessey tomorrow.

He is one the best jumpers of a fence I have seen in recent years, he is durable as they come and seems to go on any surface. The slight worry is that the newbury ground is 'tacky' and not all horses will enjoy it.

I'm sure BP will run well tomorrow (without winning), but I would really seriously fancy him for the Welsh National next month, if Hemmings & NJH are prepared to go that way.
GL.

He's a solid horse but I'd have thought too slow for this. More of a Welsh or Scottish National type to me.

I backed him today and he ran a cracker, think he would have won if he hadn't belted the cross fence. Looks a thorough stayer so can understand national routes but for me 3 mile 2 round Cheltenham would suit just as well.

Definitely a Gold Cup type horse, though still has plenty to find to match Imperial and Kauto- but no way should he be aimed at the Nationals, he's much too classy for that.

Best looking horse in the field today, I thought.  Hadn't been an admirer till now. Not sure if there's a GC in him but there'd be worse outsiders.

Same with me Steeple. I've constantly underrated him since being slammed by Diamond Harry at Haydock receiving lots of weight. Not any more, he's a serious GC horse

He's solid and seems to improve as the season progresses so should have a good season but just think he'll lack a turn of foot against the top horses.

Chepstow or Kempton iyos?

I'd leave him alone until the Pillar or Aon

As he's won right handed, Irish Grand National or Whitbread might be ultimate targets but just wondering whether he may be handicapped out of  things and have to take on the big boys after today

FFT not sure either of those races would necesarilly suit him now, he looks a dour stayer, maybe actually be suited more by the GC than a trial.

done brilliant to get back and make that ground up after that mistake....really looks like a right old battler doesn't he.

Horse racing is a funny old game, people may remember my DH fred.

I have never been so happy when coming 2nd.

I thought BP was a better jumper than DH, thats it. If timmy Murphy had rode DH today then i would be collecting a lot of money.

i remember that fred also and if im not mistaken i thought i said the jock wouldnt make a difference. interesting how he hung for timmy and not for daryl. maybe timmy hung

I took riding daryl as a positive today.

Timmy can be brilliant but he wont give the outside to anyone, rhen ride a horse like they are dancing brave.

DJ ride today was so brilliant i dont want to even talk about it.

yeehah chicken. i thought it was a v good decision to keep him up with the pace. i thought they might have kept him wide instead. he could easily have been swallowed up and hampered if he raced mid div. seems to be the place to win it from though. denners did anyhow

All season people seem to have been falling over themselves to find potential gold cup contenders from outside of the ageing trio of Imperial,Denman and Kauto Star and in Burton Port i strongly feel we have a future gold cup winner.Rapidly improving six year old with further scope for improvement grade one winner over fences and grade one placed over fences at the course with an abundence of stamina he looks way overpriced at his current odds

Backed Burton Port on saturday, see no reason why he would ever beat Diamond Harry

Blackburn, I tend to agree and have backed Diamond Harry on each occasion he's beaten Burton Port but Henderson's horse does seem to progress throughout the season whereas Diamond Harry hasn't really done so in previous years. It could be that he's matured this year so may go on but that's the one doubt for me.

I still think the Queen Mother is his race if you think back to One Man who won The Hennessy off 10 stone but didn't stay the extended trip at Cheltenham.

If Burton Port was a Gold Cup winner in waiting he'd have won at the weekend,imo.

I think at Cheltenham in the GC Burton Port would finish in front of DH, that track and time of year plays more to his strengths

But he was racing off levels against Diamond Harry and had the rest well beaten. Personally I doubt he's a Gold Cup winner but a very solid Grade 2 possibly Grade 1 horse.

I don't think either will win the GC - certainly not this year. I think DH will always be at his best on a flat track, I thnk the undulations and stiff finish at Cheltenham will suit BP more. There wasn't much in it on Saturday and the elements in BP's favour will turn it round for me - still think both will be lucky to place this year if the big three turn up close to their bests

Hmmmm, not so sure, the Gold Cup tends to be won by a horse having his first run in it. Why, I'm not sure, but miles on the clock and the likelihood of a hard race in a previous renewal leaving a mark would be two obvious factors. With that in mind, and assuming that Weapons Amnesty stays on the sick list, I can't see a better first-time-candidate than Burton Port so far. Although both Sommersby and Sizing Europe would be interesting if aimed at the race.

i backed D H  on saturday but believe come march burton port can win the gold cup. people say he and d h have to improve to trouble kauto denman and imperial. Well just 2yrs ago imperial won the paddy power off 137 who thought he would win a gold cup then the big 3 are 11 11 and 10 come march burton port who won off 157 on saturday could be re assessed 167 not that much to find with improvement to come i am taking a bit of 20's

Thats a good point Desmond, one I hadn't considered previously. I also concur BP would be the better prospect of the two at Cheltenham. My thoughts against that though are I think we currently have 2 if not 3 horses in KS, Denman & IC that usual trends don't really apply to - Reclaiming GC's, winning 2nd Hennessy's etc. This year if one of them wins the GC the over 10's stat will go down as well.

I like some of the posts on here. Just some quick thoughts...

DH is very classy, a wonderful horse, to see a horse travelling like that 2 out off a fast pace is a joy to me. He could improve as the season goes on, he may now be over his 'flakiness' and he looks a more mature horse this yr. I imagine he'll have a long break ahead of the festival, which is what the horse loves, and his trainer (although not having had a winner at the festival) is adept at readying a horse for a target.

BP could improve, looks mature, but i suspect most may feel he's been doing his improving on the track, particularly during a tough campaign last yr, and may have less scope for further improvement than DH.

However, all of DH's best performances have come at newbury (or on another flat, l/h track (Haydock))and usually after a break. BP was beaten only about a length by DH with DH receiving 1lb(jockey being 1lb overweight) on DH's beloved 'home' track. This was after BP walked through the cross fence. It is impossilbe to say, but i dont think it totally unreasonable to speculate that this mistake did not improve his chances of winning the race. This makes me think that at the festival, away from his beloved flat, l/h track, given how DH has run there before (although he has won there, even impressively, he never seems to handle the track brilliantly), and given how BP has run there before, relishing the hill, and given how the CGC is run, BP maybe represents better value for a place or better than DH (which may suggest Weapons A will run well if the ground is decent and he turns up).

I think we all tend to be taken in by classy, strong travelling horses rather than stayers and grinders. I could see BP runinng into a place more than DH, though maybe DH has matured and grown up and will be without the holes he appeared full of last yr. Either way, at this stage i cannot quite see either winning it.

/\ - I also believe both horses will be campaigned perfectly for it.

Desmond, without wanting to name names, other than WA, DH and BP, i believe there are a few nice types and possible major players yet to run in it who did not run on Saturday.

... But like you, i dont like the 'already tried' angle in the CGC.

RC

What do you make of the RP ratings giving DH 172? If that is so, he would have won the 2004 Gold Cup (Sir Rem was given 170 for being beaten half a length by Best Mate).

Hi The Sawyer - interesting mark, not seen those, I assume BP would have approx the same mark then and Denman about 180ish? Instinctively feels a bit high for me for DH. I am not sure BP is a 170ish horse, but maybe, strongly run staying test, possibly. Be interesting to see the official mark he gets on Weds (high 160s? i suppose from that its not far to posting a CGC mark).

In terms of the CGC, be interesting to see if DH can reproduce around that track. Do you think so? I dont know what mark will win this yr's CGC but i think Denman and Imperial's CGC wins achieved much higher marks than 172 and i could envisage (all being well) Imperial posting a similar mark this yr all being well (though DH is entitled to improve).

I didn't think the Sir Rembrandt BM CGC was a great race, though i thought it was a great effort from the great horse to win in those conditions which he really disliked.

What do you think?

TS, that kind of backs up my point about the usual trends not applying to the big three. In a regular year DH & BP would both be live contenders if not somewhere close to the head of the GC market. Currently we aren't in that situation as we have 3 horses capable of running on a regular basis to marks higher than most other horses that have gone before. That is if you believe in the ratings

On ratings he's already good enough to win the 2 mile championship. His best hurdle performance was The Challow over 2 1/2 miles and he's got bags of speed and class which he'd use to great effect after a break, sitting in 4th or 5th and being brought with a run on the outside on the downhill run before using his stamina on the hill to grind down the pure 2 milers.

Interesting angle Booster, not sure i'd back him, but i like the angle.

I can buy into the argument that says Diamond Harry has more scope for improvement and is more likely to win the Gold Cup but one of the things that makes Buton Port so likeable is that (so far!) he always runs his race - very consistent.

Might not win in March but I bet he's placed. Would like to see him at Chepstow myself but suspect he'll bypass that as it's a gruelling race for any horse and could inhibit his Gold Cup pretensions.

i think its fairly well accepted that dh regresses as the season goes on.

Surely they'll give the Welsh National a miss after that - he would surely be close to (if not) top weight on what is usually soft ground at best. I really don't see it's a legit option anymore if they think he's good enough to cut it at the top level anyway.

Will DH's supposed regression be such a factor if they put him away or only give him one more race? They reckon he seems a much stronger horse this year as well.

id say he should be as good at chelters if hes put away now

Watched a replay of the Hennessy on RUK last night and no doubt to me the reaon for Burton Port's mistake at the cross fence was that he was being outpaced and I think Diamond Harry was playing with him on the run in. For me, the Welsh National may come too soon and he's presumably have top weight in testing ground and, as he went well on better ground last spring, I'd aim him at the spring Nationals.

Sorry for not responding immediately RC - cricket fatigue got the better of me.

I have initially rated DH in the mid 160s, basing it around Niche Market who I am assuming has run to his official mark (not the one he ran off on Saturday). Doing it that way suggests he has run the same as last year (my ratings that is) and brings Denman to the mid 170s, a little below last year.

Another yardstick is The Tother One, who I am saying ran below his best: as he was off the bridle for about 3 miles of the race, I cannot have him running 9lbs (as the RP do) above his official rating - and being beaten 16+ lengths.

The times on the chase course on Saturday suggest the ground was much quicker than in Denman's previous wins in the race, and might be part of the reason he hasn't run right up to previous marks. Even if he had, I think the front two would still have beaten him.

Looking at a hypothetical angle, if Sam Thomas had sat still (a la DJ) over the 4th and 3rd last and say finished 6 lengths behind the front two, would the RP have been handing out another 190?

The RP have created a bid of a dilemma for themselves as they consistently (in my opinion) over-rate performances simply to accommodate the high ratings they have assigned to Denman and Kauto. I am not suggesting they are not worthy of the elevated position, but to suggest that Denman ran to within a pound of his best and be beaten 15 lengths stretches my faith.

Of the front two, I was really taken with the winner, more so than BP. The way they both ran probably suited their individual styles, BP being held up and DH getting plenty of daylight. I have seen a few comments suggesting DH should be aimed at the Champion Chase, but having run so brilliantly on Saturday I would be telling Nick Williams to get him ready for the Friday (if he was mine that is).

champion chase? the horse has nothing off the bridle and thats from a fan of it...

Tremendous performance from DH and I felt the jockey had the horse positioned brilliantly throughout. Getting a clear view of the fences and avoiding undue crowding, arguably, contributed greatly to the improved jumping the horse showed. Without the weight advantage in the GC, would it be quite so easy to obtain and maintain such an advantageous position in the race with DH? He travels well (on a flat track, at least), so that should help in terms of getting him well positioned to have a clear view of the fences in the GC, but he is not the biggest horse to fight for position if we get a reasonable size field in the GC this time.

One other concern about DH for the GC is that if he is a stronger horse now and still maturing, by March he may actually be at the stage where he needs a fair bit more work than previously to be at his best. If he doesn't run again between now and next March, there is a danger the lack of a recent run would play against him. It is often said that as they get stronger, classy race horses generally need a bit more than just home work to get them into peak racing condition. The idea DH needs long breaks between his races may be outdated by next March. If they have a long break with him now, he will also not get the extra experience he may need to cope well with the specific demands of racing in a GC.

The other thing that slightly disturbs me about DH from Saturday's run is that (even allowing for the weight advantage) he looked almost freakishly good. He travelled exceptionally well and recorded what appears a very good time for the race, on ground that the jockeys were widely reporting to be riding very dead. The proximity of BP at the end can't really disguise that DH was a very ready winner of the race. In fact, he looked so much better than the others placed similarly in the handicap (many of whom were off the bridle a fair way from home), it left me questioning the form of the race a lot more than I would ordinarily. However, I do accept that DH on his day is clearly a pretty classy horse. We may well just have seen the emergence of a horse that in time will be a worthy heir to Kauto and Denman, though I can't quite yet bring myself to see it that way. It will be very interesting to see how things develop now with DH.

Alexmillwall, I could subscribe to that theory apart from his 3rd in the Neptune to Mikael D'Haguenet. I backed him through sentiment but didn't want to see him humiliated and was really pleased with how he stuck on up the hill, appearing to find plenty. The only other time he has come off the bridle was behind Big Buck's and I think his preparation was a bit rushed there due to the brilliance of his Haydock victory. This view is what leads me to think he could be a superstar over shorter.

The Gold Cup could be his in the future, he's definitely classy enough for any race you want to put him in but I don't think he could be ridden like he was on Saturday woth 11st 10lbs on at Cheltenham over 3 1/4 miles.

i dont think the quick time of the race suggests better ground than given in the going description. jockeys beforehand described the ground as being quite dead and other results suggest that that was probably the case. i think that dh jumping well with ten stone was always going to post a quick time which is what he did

The Sawyer - just a quick reply, but great post + i find it v convincing. RPR's are always slightly inflated IMO and tbh i pay them little attention in terms of my judgement of a race beforehand.

I similarly agree re The T'Other One. I didn't know they thought he'd run 9lb above his official rating. I wonder what they say he ran compared to his previous RPR?  Seems unlikely to be an improving horse..

Cricket fatigue - and well worth it!

aka - agree with everything you say. Very exciting performance and GC has to be the target (for me anyway).

reve - I saw you comment on the ground on another thread and I heard the jockeys' comments: I also read that PN thought the ground might have been a bit lively for Denman!! The comments from the jocks came earlier in the afternoon and I would think (based on what happened later) that the chase course was a bit quicker than the hurdle track: also there were plenty of competitive chases run on Saturday for comparison.

Now if I told you that Sardre in the amateurs race, carrying 11-9, ran faster up the straight than DH (10-0) you might be surprised. If I added that Mount Oscar (11-0) went faster still you might say ok as that race was over 2m 4f.

But if all three ran faster from the first in the straight to the winning post than Finians Rainbow and Agile Dor from Thurdsday (also described as G/S) and see that Sadre ran over a second faster than AD'O, I hope you would think the ground had quickened up quite considerably by Sat.

That takes absolutely nothing away from DH but imo adds to his effort as my worry pre-race (as with most of the progressive types in the field) was that their best form had been on soft or even softer ground.

sawyer, i didnt look into it much but just thought that just because a horse posts a quick time it doesnt mean its poor ground. thats interesting. i actually wouldnt be surprised that dh didnt run all that quick up the straight as i think he was idling a bit until burton port came into his eyeline. i also think that hes a horse who does all his good work during the race... high cruising speed etc

booster- im fairly new to the game but in my opinion when someone talks about a horse finding more off the bridle it can be one of 2 things- staying power and a general willingness to keep going, striving foward to reach the line before its rivals using every ounce of energy OR pure pace that you see in a lot more 2m hurdlers, actually burstuing away from the horses around them to go straight through the winning line.

I dont really think DH has either

i dont know if its whether or not a horse is willing to win more than others. its understandable when the horse is winning as its more than likely just idling and isnt going to do more than it needs to but in diamond harrys case, as well as idling, its next to impossible to quicken off a pace which he races at

Agree with earlier poster about Burton Port getting outpaced as they quickened, I believe the same happened at Cheltenham when he stayed on well up the straight. In the hurdle race last year Harry toyed with him up the long straight at Haydock. BP is a grand type who wouldn't have the pace to win a GC.

On the other hand, and you may correct me, has Harry won yet when he's come off the bridle? The hill at Cheltenham might just find him out.

Denman and Kauto have had their day, I cant see past Imperial Commander in March.

Very interesting points which show just why we love this game.

Seems like I'm alone in thinking Diamond Harry might not be a stayer but I was at Haydock when he won his first chase and the way he quickened (and more importantly jumped) at pace in the straight makes me think he may have won because he was well handicapped not because he really stays. He was running away until 2 out and not really sure he was concentrating that much.

Have a look for free on the Sporting Life website but he definitely didn't look like a stayer at Haydock over fences (as opposed to the run over the fixed brush hurdles).

I also agree that Imperial Commander is the most likely Gold cup winner and, at about 9-2, a decent price.

Can't see him doing much between now and The Gold Cup as I think he's nowhere near his best round Kempton and any impressive performances between now and March by up and coming horses should even lengthen his price. Very difficult to beat.

want run again before the gold cup .

The Gold Cup is a really tough, no holes barred test. I suspect this year it will be another desperately tough affair, with the likes of Harry and Denman trying to run everything else into the ground.

I just suspect Diamond Harry is not the horse for such a race, the fences and the hill and trying to beat Denman at level weights looks very difficult.

Of course Imperial Commander may just retain his crown, but I actually fancy Denman to reverse places this year, maybe setting off on the second circuit and making it a real attritional battle.

If this is the scenario, I like Burton Port quite a lot. Of course he has a lot to find with Denman, but as others have said he is tough determined and very consistent. He also seems to win quite a lot. He stays and on Hennessy form it seems to me there is nothing to choose between Burton Port and Diamond Harry - Burton Port was conceding DH a pound and almost demolished the 4th last.

I recall the trainer of Harry saying that he might need a flatter track than Cheltenham - I see the hill at Cheltenham being all in Burton Port's favour.

The Sawyer - DH 168 BHA OR, BP 166, The T'Other One 152.

Just want to reply to a couple of posts.

Booster, i also had a Diamond Harry thread up last year and stated that i had backed him for the Arkle And RSA, but thought that the arkle was the one to go for and still haven't changed my opinion if he runs in the CC will be carrying my money. To me he's god the perfect blend of speed and stamina to win the CC and after his RSA run couldn't have him over 3 mile 2 in the gold cup.

Cryoftruth, I think exactly the same way as you can see the GC being very attritional this year and Burton Port to me is a really strong stayer if they go a breakneck pace and cut each others throats can see him getting a place at least, as such I have just backed him today.

Good points, Burton Point will be totally outpaced at the top of the hill and he'll stay on up the straight but he'll be miles back. Harry has a great cruising speed but often that type of horse flattens out very quickly.

I cant have Denman or Kauto as I see no reason why either would get near IC in March, hopefully Kauto romps home in the King George to keep his GC price down.

The more I think about Burton Port, the more I think he might be a difficult horse to place and may be better left for one of the big spring Nationals plus maybe The Whitbread when I think Saturday's form would read very well.

Wouldn't really be my Gold Cup fancy in a normal year but can see this year being more open than the last few. Also can't really see his price contracting in the meantime due to lack of suitable targets beforehand.

Toon4eva, the questions here regarding Diamond Harry finding little off the bridle could be because his stamina is limited and starting to ebb away over longer trips and I'm pretty sure this won't have escaped the notice of his very shrewd trainer although he may want to go 2 mile Champion Chase route with Gauvain and you couldn't really argue with that at the moment.

I've already had 40s on here for French Opera in the Queen Mother but would happily cover my bet with Diamond Harry at a reasonable price.

Not going for the Welsh national according to Henderson so hopefully campaining him with the Gold Cup in mind.

No money wanting to back...looks ominous...

I hope he is well.

I still dont get why people still doubt BP, using a hard novice season as a reason. He only had one hard race last season and that was in the rsa and i know that can ruin horses but he showed on his debut that he is still on an upward curve. I still doubt he will be outpaced in the GC, he may well not be good enough thou.

ffs

i didnt even lay off my 45/1 ap bet.

I hope he returns fit and well.