I can buy into the argument that says Diamond Harry has more scope for improvement and is more likely to win the Gold Cup but one of the things that makes Buton Port so likeable is that (so far!) he always runs his race - very consistent.

Might not win in March but I bet he's placed. Would like to see him at Chepstow myself but suspect he'll bypass that as it's a gruelling race for any horse and could inhibit his Gold Cup pretensions.

Surely they'll give the Welsh National a miss after that - he would surely be close to (if not) top weight on what is usually soft ground at best. I really don't see it's a legit option anymore if they think he's good enough to cut it at the top level anyway.

id say he should be as good at chelters if hes put away now

Sorry for not responding immediately RC - cricket fatigue got the better of me.

I have initially rated DH in the mid 160s, basing it around Niche Market who I am assuming has run to his official mark (not the one he ran off on Saturday). Doing it that way suggests he has run the same as last year (my ratings that is) and brings Denman to the mid 170s, a little below last year.

Another yardstick is The Tother One, who I am saying ran below his best: as he was off the bridle for about 3 miles of the race, I cannot have him running 9lbs (as the RP do) above his official rating - and being beaten 16+ lengths.

The times on the chase course on Saturday suggest the ground was much quicker than in Denman's previous wins in the race, and might be part of the reason he hasn't run right up to previous marks. Even if he had, I think the front two would still have beaten him.

Looking at a hypothetical angle, if Sam Thomas had sat still (a la DJ) over the 4th and 3rd last and say finished 6 lengths behind the front two, would the RP have been handing out another 190?

The RP have created a bid of a dilemma for themselves as they consistently (in my opinion) over-rate performances simply to accommodate the high ratings they have assigned to Denman and Kauto. I am not suggesting they are not worthy of the elevated position, but to suggest that Denman ran to within a pound of his best and be beaten 15 lengths stretches my faith.

Of the front two, I was really taken with the winner, more so than BP. The way they both ran probably suited their individual styles, BP being held up and DH getting plenty of daylight. I have seen a few comments suggesting DH should be aimed at the Champion Chase, but having run so brilliantly on Saturday I would be telling Nick Williams to get him ready for the Friday (if he was mine that is).

Tremendous performance from DH and I felt the jockey had the horse positioned brilliantly throughout. Getting a clear view of the fences and avoiding undue crowding, arguably, contributed greatly to the improved jumping the horse showed. Without the weight advantage in the GC, would it be quite so easy to obtain and maintain such an advantageous position in the race with DH? He travels well (on a flat track, at least), so that should help in terms of getting him well positioned to have a clear view of the fences in the GC, but he is not the biggest horse to fight for position if we get a reasonable size field in the GC this time.

One other concern about DH for the GC is that if he is a stronger horse now and still maturing, by March he may actually be at the stage where he needs a fair bit more work than previously to be at his best. If he doesn't run again between now and next March, there is a danger the lack of a recent run would play against him. It is often said that as they get stronger, classy race horses generally need a bit more than just home work to get them into peak racing condition. The idea DH needs long breaks between his races may be outdated by next March. If they have a long break with him now, he will also not get the extra experience he may need to cope well with the specific demands of racing in a GC.

The other thing that slightly disturbs me about DH from Saturday's run is that (even allowing for the weight advantage) he looked almost freakishly good. He travelled exceptionally well and recorded what appears a very good time for the race, on ground that the jockeys were widely reporting to be riding very dead. The proximity of BP at the end can't really disguise that DH was a very ready winner of the race. In fact, he looked so much better than the others placed similarly in the handicap (many of whom were off the bridle a fair way from home), it left me questioning the form of the race a lot more than I would ordinarily. However, I do accept that DH on his day is clearly a pretty classy horse. We may well just have seen the emergence of a horse that in time will be a worthy heir to Kauto and Denman, though I can't quite yet bring myself to see it that way. It will be very interesting to see how things develop now with DH.

i dont think the quick time of the race suggests better ground than given in the going description. jockeys beforehand described the ground as being quite dead and other results suggest that that was probably the case. i think that dh jumping well with ten stone was always going to post a quick time which is what he did

aka - agree with everything you say. Very exciting performance and GC has to be the target (for me anyway).

reve - I saw you comment on the ground on another thread and I heard the jockeys' comments: I also read that PN thought the ground might have been a bit lively for Denman!! The comments from the jocks came earlier in the afternoon and I would think (based on what happened later) that the chase course was a bit quicker than the hurdle track: also there were plenty of competitive chases run on Saturday for comparison.

Now if I told you that Sardre in the amateurs race, carrying 11-9, ran faster up the straight than DH (10-0) you might be surprised. If I added that Mount Oscar (11-0) went faster still you might say ok as that race was over 2m 4f.

But if all three ran faster from the first in the straight to the winning post than Finians Rainbow and Agile Dor from Thurdsday (also described as G/S) and see that Sadre ran over a second faster than AD'O, I hope you would think the ground had quickened up quite considerably by Sat.

That takes absolutely nothing away from DH but imo adds to his effort as my worry pre-race (as with most of the progressive types in the field) was that their best form had been on soft or even softer ground.

booster- im fairly new to the game but in my opinion when someone talks about a horse finding more off the bridle it can be one of 2 things- staying power and a general willingness to keep going, striving foward to reach the line before its rivals using every ounce of energy OR pure pace that you see in a lot more 2m hurdlers, actually burstuing away from the horses around them to go straight through the winning line.

I dont really think DH has either

Agree with earlier poster about Burton Port getting outpaced as they quickened, I believe the same happened at Cheltenham when he stayed on well up the straight. In the hurdle race last year Harry toyed with him up the long straight at Haydock. BP is a grand type who wouldn't have the pace to win a GC.

On the other hand, and you may correct me, has Harry won yet when he's come off the bridle? The hill at Cheltenham might just find him out.

Denman and Kauto have had their day, I cant see past Imperial Commander in March.

I also agree that Imperial Commander is the most likely Gold cup winner and, at about 9-2, a decent price.

Can't see him doing much between now and The Gold Cup as I think he's nowhere near his best round Kempton and any impressive performances between now and March by up and coming horses should even lengthen his price. Very difficult to beat.

The Gold Cup is a really tough, no holes barred test. I suspect this year it will be another desperately tough affair, with the likes of Harry and Denman trying to run everything else into the ground.

I just suspect Diamond Harry is not the horse for such a race, the fences and the hill and trying to beat Denman at level weights looks very difficult.

Of course Imperial Commander may just retain his crown, but I actually fancy Denman to reverse places this year, maybe setting off on the second circuit and making it a real attritional battle.

If this is the scenario, I like Burton Port quite a lot. Of course he has a lot to find with Denman, but as others have said he is tough determined and very consistent. He also seems to win quite a lot. He stays and on Hennessy form it seems to me there is nothing to choose between Burton Port and Diamond Harry - Burton Port was conceding DH a pound and almost demolished the 4th last.

I recall the trainer of Harry saying that he might need a flatter track than Cheltenham - I see the hill at Cheltenham being all in Burton Port's favour.

Just want to reply to a couple of posts.

Booster, i also had a Diamond Harry thread up last year and stated that i had backed him for the Arkle And RSA, but thought that the arkle was the one to go for and still haven't changed my opinion if he runs in the CC will be carrying my money. To me he's god the perfect blend of speed and stamina to win the CC and after his RSA run couldn't have him over 3 mile 2 in the gold cup.

Cryoftruth, I think exactly the same way as you can see the GC being very attritional this year and Burton Port to me is a really strong stayer if they go a breakneck pace and cut each others throats can see him getting a place at least, as such I have just backed him today.

The more I think about Burton Port, the more I think he might be a difficult horse to place and may be better left for one of the big spring Nationals plus maybe The Whitbread when I think Saturday's form would read very well.

Wouldn't really be my Gold Cup fancy in a normal year but can see this year being more open than the last few. Also can't really see his price contracting in the meantime due to lack of suitable targets beforehand.

Toon4eva, the questions here regarding Diamond Harry finding little off the bridle could be because his stamina is limited and starting to ebb away over longer trips and I'm pretty sure this won't have escaped the notice of his very shrewd trainer although he may want to go 2 mile Champion Chase route with Gauvain and you couldn't really argue with that at the moment.

I've already had 40s on here for French Opera in the Queen Mother but would happily cover my bet with Diamond Harry at a reasonable price.

No money wanting to back...looks ominous...

ffs

i didnt even lay off my 45/1 ap bet.

I hope he returns fit and well.