I think Imperial Commander, What A Friend and Punchestown are the 3 to side with.

Punchestowns will be Hendos Gold Cup horse surely as Long Run isn't up to the task, he's Ryanair bound or skipping Cheltenham for the flat track Aintree..

Can't see Cooldine winning, don't RSA winners have to be Denman class to actually ever win the Gold Cup?

I have to agree with CVByrne. There are doubts about Kauto this year IMO (as per my post) but to say that the horse has no chance is a complete joke. Either Ballydoyle is very drunk (perhaps trying to get over Murtagh's departure) or he doesn't have a clue. Any horse rated 180 plus has a massive chance.

In fact I would absolutey love to see it win - but KG will surely be the crowninng moment for this magnificent creature.

New Gold Cup winner this season. I think the race will mark the end of an era, Kauto, Denman, IC all 10 or 11 beaten by a new up and coming horse.

Take your pick, plenty of talented progressive young horses.

Still a huge price too, utter madness that Long Run is ahead of IC in the betting. Two horse race for me, already have IC backed at 16/1 will take Kauto closer to the day.

Panto - I lead the syndicate - take it from me we want to go to Kempton.

CV,Cooldine is fairly close in  the Irish formbook with the likes of Joncol,and has won at Cheltenham.Not particularly bothered about his GC run as he did not settle at all during the race,and i still feel he is capable of running a big race if he is on his game.
I dont think he will win the GC, but i do feel he is one that could surprise if all is well on the day.
Joncol and Pandorama have yet to set foot at Cheltenham,and most of their form in Ireland is fairly closely matched with WA and Cooldine.So on that basis i think WA and Cooldine will have better chances next March.

bud I suppose I dismissed cooldine based on his punchestown run more than anything. Joncol was still progressing last season, he was still growing, they tried wrong tactics in the Lexus and different tactics won them the Hennessy. He will improve again this season, more than Cooldine will.

But if you forgive Cooldine a few poor runs last season and judge him on his runs this season, the promise he showed in the rsa would be enough to think he will feature. Though I'll have to see evidence of that on a race track.

As for Pando he was not fit for the Knight Frank at christmas and still won, which makes me believe he has loads more to come. Though WA clearly loves cheltenham being a winner twice at the festival.

CV Byrne......Are you going to back Kauto Star in the 2011 Gold Cup at 5-1?

What was his record going into last year's race as an odds-on fav? And what happened then?

Here's stats for you - F121U - his record at the Festival.You can quote your completed races but fences are there to be jumped. He's been beat in two Gold Cups already and third one is coming up next March.

i thought he was,but their seems to be a feeling that he may not be,so not sure whats happening to be honest.

17 Nov 10 22:17
New Gold Cup winner this season. I think the race will mark the end of an era, Kauto, Denman, IC all 10 or 11 beaten by a new up and coming horse.

Take your pick, plenty of talented progressive young horses.



CVByrne 17 Nov 10 22:27
Still a huge price too, utter madness that Long Run is ahead of IC in the betting. Two horse race for me, already have IC backed at 16/1 will take Kauto closer to the day.


which opinion is yours cv ??

Yeh,especially as its 2 different races!!

So Ballydoyle based on your crude assessment

2/5 at the festival and he is 5/1 for the next festival. Hmmm, sure is tricky to work that one out.

You back em CV and I'll lay em./..4/7 last festival I believe....hit the deck when being ridden along...and you think he can win next year

My last post went over your head didn't it. It's understandable you lack basic mathematics.

I can't understand why Weapons Amnesty is such a big price for last years RSA winner (no matter how good a quality field people think it was....or wasn't).  Does anyone know if there is something amiss with the horse or is it just that he has not been out yet this season.

luke, chances are almost 0 id say. he could get plenty of prizemoney elsewhere on the novice chase sceneas hes one of thebest around. i say theyll keep him in novice company as its the obvious thing to do plus he doesnt want driinginto the ground ust back after an injury

Ballydoyle, I'll help you out with a little mathematics lesson, then you could possibly see how your quoted stats say the opposite of what you intended them to. Then you'll see why you look rather silly as usual. Ok, so let's get cracking.

Lesson 1

If a horse wins 2 of 5 runs that means he has 40% strike rate which would equate fair value odds of 6/4. He is currently 5/1. So based on your quoted stat, what would you do?

Answer: Yes, bet at 5/1.


Lesson 2

We'll now work in the odds on the day of racing. Ok, on the day his opening odds were.

2/1 - 6/4 - evns - 7/4 - 4/7

Now the ones in bold were the wins. So for a level stake, do we win or lose over the 5 years?

Answer: We win, we lose 3 that -3, we win @ 6/4 and 7/4 = 3.25 so our net gain is 0.25.


So we learning yet? Good boy. No homework today.

CV Byrne.net gains of 0.25??

Lesson One - cos there is only one.

Imperial Commander 2010 Gold Cup 8-1 £1000 e/w - how many points profit is that? while the old Kauto Star was riding along trying to keep up

Kauto Star - 2011 Gold Cup - no horse has even won a Gold Cup having lost two before. What's the true odds on this considering how many have tried? More than 5-1 quite possibly??? Take yer time.....