Cheltenham Festival
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Cheltenham 2011 - Gold Cup Winner!!!
Cheltenham 2011 - Gold Cup Winner!!!
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CV Byrne.net gains of 0.25??
Lesson One - cos there is only one. Imperial Commander 2010 Gold Cup 8-1 £1000 e/w - how many points profit is that? while the old Kauto Star was riding along trying to keep up Kauto Star - 2011 Gold Cup - no horse has even won a Gold Cup having lost two before. What's the true odds on this considering how many have tried? More than 5-1 quite possibly??? Take yer time..... firstly a quite magnificent piece of aftertiming. Secondly I dont remember any race ever being priced up solely on the number of times horses have won/regained it. If this years Gold Cup was a 2 horse race between Kauto and ,say, Cant Buy Time, do you think the book would be based on the likelihood of a horse regaing the title for the second time. On that book, accordsing to you Cant Buy Time would be 1/3 - unlikely IMHO. |
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Also very unlikely IMHO that the 2011 Gold Cup is gonna be a 2 horse race so let's not get silly eh....
To be honest, this is boring me now. Kauto Star is a legend yes but we ain't talking about that and to say I hate/dislike the horse statles me - on what grounds does CV Byrne base this on? cos I think he is a very poor 5-1 shot for the 2011 Gold Cup? Cos I said in March he was never an odds-on shot? Yes, I will be amazed if he wins but nothing to do with like/dislike, just the cold hard facts that there are horses coming through like the ones I've mentioned and that Kauto Star has had too many battles for my liking, similar to Denman, and at 11yo come March it just aint happening - for either of them. I will leave it at that and see what happens in March 2011. |
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I dont think it will win either but for reasons of jumping at that particular track and also in a truly run race I think there are stamina doubts. Both those issues put me off and have been at the heart of all the times the horse has blown out at at Prestbury.
I dont think though the history of defeated champions has got anything to do with it. anyway hope they all line up could be a cracking renewal. |
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Didn't The Fellow win the Gold Cup at something like its 86th attempt [smiley:crazy] , am sure there must be others? Not that I'm looking to intervene.....
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87 actually,and stop intervening.
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could be a stay of execution for the old brigade if nobody else can step up to the mark. Joncol value at the mo
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IC that was very impressive and away from Cheltenham....one more run, stay fit and very hard to beat in March
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i was at haydock today, imp commander was very very impressive
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really really looking forward to this horse at cheltenham. we ALL know he's going to kempton next where he will get stuffed and drift slightly, kauto will win and come in more to a SILLY price, thats when we lay kauto get on the commander and head to cheltenham with a juicy antepost ticket.
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i am surprised they are going to kempton with imperial commander. the leopardstown race looks more suited but i guess kempton is closer to home.
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By: cyrusdailami When: 20 Nov 10 22:55 really really looking forward to this horse at cheltenham. we ALL know he's going to kempton next where he will get stuffed and drift slightly, kauto will win and come in more to a SILLY price, thats when we lay kauto get on the commander and head to cheltenham with a juicy antepost ticket.
That's the most sense I've seen on this thread...apart from my own points of course  |
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indeed
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Lets rule out Imperial Commander as only Best Mate has retained this in the last 40 years. Kauto is the only horse ever to regain it, therefore unlikely to do it again and this also applies to Denman. Therefore a new Champion beckons. Possibilities today IMO Diamond Harry but I'm not sure his jumping will hold up at level weights with the top horses. I would be interested in Weapons Amnesty, but appears doubtful starter. This leaves just 2 for me, Burton Port, admittedly beaten by Diamond Harry in the Hennessy, but this is Cheltenham and has better course form, and finally Midnight Chase, who thrives at Chelt, is improving and we don't yet know his true potential.
Just my quick summing up! |
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Shockster. Don't waste your money mate. Denman gave Diamond harry the most silly amount of weight and still came third. Not good enough to win a gold cup run at a furious pace at Cheltenham. Please don't have a punt on the handicapper (at best) Midnight Chase in one of the nations best Grade 1s- just money it the layers pocket.
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rule out commander good luck with that project.
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New Champion this year, just not sure who it will be. The stats aren't everything, but they take some getting away from.
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Ha, stats mean nothing. Stats are broken every day of the week in racing. The best horse wins on the day. Kauto. Denman. or most probably imperial can take home the 2011 gold cup. I can tell you for free - Diamond Harry and Midnight chase will not be troubling the big boys of level weights. I cannot believe you think Imperial Commander off level weights would be beaten by Midnight Chase. Not a chance.
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I will honestly eat my Macbook pro if Midnight chase beats imperial come march.
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Cyrus, I am not saying which horse will beat IC,KS and Denman, I just gave my opinion on who i believe are the most likely candidates. The stats STRONGLY suggest the previous winners will get beat.
Get the Ketchup out for your Macbook. |
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Imperial Commander be very hard to beat on the day, just hope he has another run prior to the Gold Cup.
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I too think that bar the usual 3 KS, IC,D the only others to have impressed so far are Midnight Chase, Diamond Harry and Burton Port and I think Midnight Chase will at least place, I thought his run on Saturday was magnificent and sometimes horses do work their way up through handicaps to become a Champ.
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I do agree with the stats strongly point to a new winner. But the three at the top of the market are not your average horses. They have turned stats on their heads many times. I find it hard to believe that all three of the big guns can be beaten in March.
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i find it hard to believe that the big three will be beaten also but donn mcclean makes a compelling argument which is intersting if nothing else.http://donnmcclean.com/2010/12/05/changing-of-the-guard/
also reading barry geraghtys post a few weeks ago on the atr website he said that he thought hed need another 6 lengths to have beaten diamond harry who he thought idled. if thats true then diamond harry may have less to find with denman than many people think. saying that harrys jumping could also deteriorate having to carry 11st 10. midnight chase is a chelters specialist and if he won this weekend like he won on his run before that i could see him running well without winning but looked a bit weary when he won on saturday. i wont have a bet until march because its hard to know what horses will turn up but if i owned a horse like burton port, diamond harry and even midnight chase id be inclined to give it a go given the prizemoney available even for places. mon mome finished 3rd last yr and picked up 50k and id say the likes of the 3 above would be able to finish in front of mon mome so it would be worth tryin. nothing ventured and all that |
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I agree age can catch up with you quickly. But the point I'm making is unlike in the past, there is 3 horses who need to regress significantly. Not one. Three. Three special horses still winning Grade 1's (Kauto/IC) or putting up a 180 in the Hennessy.
Moscow lost all his races the season he was dethroned. Kauto and IC could easily be unbeaten going to Cheltenham in March. With Denman the ratings winner in the Hennessy. I just think one of those three will win the race again. IC is lightly raced, while Kauto according to his owner and trainer is showing no signs of regression and still loves the game. There's also no real stand out 2nd season chaser either. |
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yeah theyre definately better than in seasons gone by. interesting how war of attrition won the gc rated just 157.the kg might throw out some clues about the gc also.
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I can't remember the last Gold Cup winner who didn't run in the King George or Lexus Chase. So yes should be clues alright.
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cant see kauto being beaten in the kg tbh and if anything does then it will be v short in price for the gc
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Its hard to pick a winner for this one, given Denmans solid run in the Hennessy and going straight to the gold cup, Commander loves it round Cheltenham and Kauto star is, well; Kauto star. I wouldn't want to be on anything else tbh. Think Commander may just edge it.
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