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Who do we think can do it !!
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only best mate has retained his title in the last 40 years, so it always amazes me when we have this sort of topic people tie their colours to the previous seasons winner.even the great kauto couldn't do it
to be fair its not only this race people do it, its most non novice championship races
its very hard to win a race at the festival let alone trying to come back and retain your title
last season only big bucks and quevega could defend their divisions, but thats partly to do with them being so superior to their rivals
to be fair its not only this race people do it, its most non novice championship races
its very hard to win a race at the festival let alone trying to come back and retain your title
last season only big bucks and quevega could defend their divisions, but thats partly to do with them being so superior to their rivals
^ I would generally agree with you, BUT Imperial is probably one of the most confirmed Cheltenham lovers we have seen and confirmed himself to be on the coattails (at the very least) of one of the greatest chasers to have ever set foot on a racecourse. In all probability he had Kauto cooked when the latter came down in the Gold Cup and he pushed him to the absolute limit at Haydock as well. However you interpret that, he is plainly an absolute top-notcher.
I know a lot of people like Weird Al, and he is clearly a progressive, talented young horse with all the right qualities to suggest he will continue to improve. However, on what he has achieved to date, he is a mile behind Imperial. All aboard the reigning champ, and maybe a saver on Kauto...
I know a lot of people like Weird Al, and he is clearly a progressive, talented young horse with all the right qualities to suggest he will continue to improve. However, on what he has achieved to date, he is a mile behind Imperial. All aboard the reigning champ, and maybe a saver on Kauto...
Weird Al for me as he seems to have a liking for Cheltenham and is 2-2 at the track.I would have to disagree that he is a mile behind IC on what he has achieved to date.It took until NOV 08(as a 7yo) for IC to reach a mark of 156 where Weird Al has a mark of 152 already.I think these 2 horses are very similar in profile and although i backed IC last year to win the Gold Cup my money is on Weird Al this time.
the jigger
I would have to disagree that he is a mile behind IC on what he has achieved to date.It took until NOV 08(as a 7yo) for IC to reach a mark of 156 where Weird Al has a mark of 152 already.
I agree with you that the profiles of the two are similar and Weird Al clearly has the potential to be where Imperial Commander is now. But at present, potential is all it is. How many beautiful prospects rated in the 150s fail to progress beyond that? More importantly, Imperial Commander is rated 185. Weird Al, on 152 at present, doesn't just have to improve, he has to improve over two stone on those figures to be within touching distance. That's an awful lot.
I would have to disagree that he is a mile behind IC on what he has achieved to date.It took until NOV 08(as a 7yo) for IC to reach a mark of 156 where Weird Al has a mark of 152 already.
I agree with you that the profiles of the two are similar and Weird Al clearly has the potential to be where Imperial Commander is now. But at present, potential is all it is. How many beautiful prospects rated in the 150s fail to progress beyond that? More importantly, Imperial Commander is rated 185. Weird Al, on 152 at present, doesn't just have to improve, he has to improve over two stone on those figures to be within touching distance. That's an awful lot.
Imperial commander looks best ..... but somersby could be dangerous
1st What a Friend
2nd Imperial Commander
3rd Burton Point
You can only dream...........
2nd Imperial Commander
3rd Burton Point
You can only dream...........
it seems strange to me that most are going for the up and coming chasers.id prefer those that have been there and done it i know they could be regressing but we'll have a better idea of that come march.if say ic ran 10lb below last year he could still be good enough same goes for kauto
Burton Port was staying on in last years RSA Chase; looks an uncomplicated sort, and could possibly be ridden by BG, which would be a huge positive! For me Long Run is not a Cheltenham horse, and it's a credit to his ability that he managed to finish 2nd in the RSA last year, and victory over Kauto on Boxing Day would give the Burton Port form a huge boost! All this is assuming Weapons Amnesty will not take is chance because if he does he could be very hard to beat. Denman should run a place.
China rock at a price be interested to see how he performs against Kauto tomorrow
Progressing youngster sound enough form step up in trip could easily run into a place if kauto and Denman dont turn up for whatever reasons
Progressing youngster sound enough form step up in trip could easily run into a place if kauto and Denman dont turn up for whatever reasons
Albertas Run could mow need 3 miles plus. Won an RSA Chase 3 seasons back and Ryanair last year. Loves Cheltenham in March and his owner's best chance of a Gold Cup winner. McCoy riding would be a boost as he gets on really well with him.
....or Kauto isnt an all-time great over a trip above 3 miles when there is pace on. 2 Gold Cup wins, one a 5 length win over Turnip Green and a second over a Denman ridden in a subdued way but still managed 2nd after heart problems. Any time the pace has been on over a staying trip above 3 miles Kauto has failed. He is an all-time great at up to 3 miles but definitely not above imo.
deane Joined: 29 Jul 04
Replies: 105 20 Oct 10 08:09
^ I would generally agree with you, BUT Imperial is probably one of the most confirmed Cheltenham lovers we have seen and confirmed himself to be on the coattails (at the very least) of one of the greatest chasers to have ever set foot on a racecourse. In all probability he had Kauto cooked when the latter came down in the Gold Cup and he pushed him to the absolute limit at Haydock as well. However you interpret that, he is plainly an absolute top-notcher.
deane Joined: 29 Jul 04
Replies: 105 20 Oct 10 08:09
^ I would generally agree with you, BUT Imperial is probably one of the most confirmed Cheltenham lovers we have seen and confirmed himself to be on the coattails (at the very least) of one of the greatest chasers to have ever set foot on a racecourse. In all probability he had Kauto cooked when the latter came down in the Gold Cup and he pushed him to the absolute limit at Haydock as well. However you interpret that, he is plainly an absolute top-notcher.
.. so lets not elevate Imperial Commander way above his station before the ratings boys ignore the obvious I just posted and get carried away again.
Was Imperial Commander better than Bregawn, Forgive'N'Forget, Burrough Hill Lad etc .. no imo ... the ratings are a totally inflated joke now imo.
Was Imperial Commander better than Bregawn, Forgive'N'Forget, Burrough Hill Lad etc .. no imo ... the ratings are a totally inflated joke now imo.
To put it in context Kauto has only won 1 of his last 4 runs at a trip above 3 miles. The win was when Denman was under par yet he still managed 2nd such was the poorness of both fields that Kauto won a Gold Cup in. He was allowed to travel within himself in both. Contrast that to when his stamina has been called upon. Arkle would pulverise him out of sight at trips above 3m but less so at under 3m.
Lets look at the facts instead of the hype. Do you really believe Imperial Commander is a better horse than Burrough Hill Lad? Would love a price for that one.
Lets look at the facts instead of the hype. Do you really believe Imperial Commander is a better horse than Burrough Hill Lad? Would love a price for that one.
Eric
I was always of the impression that BHL was rated higher than IC and even Denman on Timeform figures: not sure about official ones though.
That was a golden era in the early to mid 1980s. I was at Newbury in 1984 when he won his Hennessey and I rate that above Denman's two wins in the same race.
I was always of the impression that BHL was rated higher than IC and even Denman on Timeform figures: not sure about official ones though.
That was a golden era in the early to mid 1980s. I was at Newbury in 1984 when he won his Hennessey and I rate that above Denman's two wins in the same race.
The Sawyer, yes I think the ratings boys get well carried away now. With a pace on at a staying trip above 3 miles Burrough Hill Lad would hammer Kauto and Imperial Commander. Obviously a less stiff 3 miles speed test around Kempton Kauto in turn demolishes them.
Burtons Port
Planet Of Sound
Weird Al
Pandorama
Imperial Commander
Kauto Star/Denman/Long Run absolutely no chance
Planet Of Sound
Weird Al
Pandorama
Imperial Commander
Kauto Star/Denman/Long Run absolutely no chance
What A Friend is a bottler whose Cheltenham record is garbage.
hahaha Kauto Star has "no chance" based on what? his unbeaten record when completing in Grade one chases since March 2008? Form 1U1111F1
I hate morons who say "no chance" about the Gold Cup fav. You can say I don't think he'll win, which is a totally fine opinion. But "no chance", do shut up fool.
I hate morons who say "no chance" about the Gold Cup fav. You can say I don't think he'll win, which is a totally fine opinion. But "no chance", do shut up fool.
I think he'll be beat by one of the younger ones myself too. At 11yo it's just too old, sands of time to have taken their toll.
But to say he has "no chance" is simply because Ballydoyle doesn't like the horse, as we know from endless remarks about him over the years on here.
I hate disrespect for great horses, has me seething sometimes.
But to say he has "no chance" is simply because Ballydoyle doesn't like the horse, as we know from endless remarks about him over the years on here.
I hate disrespect for great horses, has me seething sometimes.
Kauto Star has NO chance in the Gold Cup and anyone taking 5s at the moment is simply stupid.
Too many hard races
Beaten when fell last year
Has been beaten in race twice before
Will be 11 years old
Competing against younger, up and coming, faster horses
So yes, Mr CV Byrne, he has NO chance and for Howdi, you can include Denman in that also.
The reasons why I'm hardly on here anymore CV Byrne is cos it is tiring arguing with the 98% who dont make it pay and who ain't got a clue, preferring to cosy in with their online mates saying "baaaa" to each other.
Anyway, your beloved Kauto Star would've struggled to make it in the top 3 last year when it fell - I told you before the race it would get beat and duly backed Cooldine and Imperial Commander.
It's not disrespect my friend, it's just fact.
Yes, great horse etc but even if he wins the King George by 100 lengths, he has NO chance in the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Too many hard races
Beaten when fell last year
Has been beaten in race twice before
Will be 11 years old
Competing against younger, up and coming, faster horses
So yes, Mr CV Byrne, he has NO chance and for Howdi, you can include Denman in that also.
The reasons why I'm hardly on here anymore CV Byrne is cos it is tiring arguing with the 98% who dont make it pay and who ain't got a clue, preferring to cosy in with their online mates saying "baaaa" to each other.
Anyway, your beloved Kauto Star would've struggled to make it in the top 3 last year when it fell - I told you before the race it would get beat and duly backed Cooldine and Imperial Commander.
It's not disrespect my friend, it's just fact.
Yes, great horse etc but even if he wins the King George by 100 lengths, he has NO chance in the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Imperial Commander has it to lose. Well clear on ratings but has to prove that he is the same horse this year. I will be watching his run on Saturday with interest. Planet Of Sound is one who might continue to improve and threaten the best this year. He has the speed to win a Haldon Gold Cup, stays 3 miles and has low mileage.
It will be Ireland this year.
Weapons Amnesty loves Cheltenham and last years RSA is by all accounts a great race judging by how everyone thinks Long Run is so great.
Pandorama was trained by a Mr N Meade last time I looked - therefore forget it.
Joncol just doesn't look a Gold Cup horse to me. Looks a typical Irish small field soft ground type horse and is a bit on the gross side.Mansony, Notre Pere, Knight Legend etc.
Of the British Denman and IC stand out - Kauto just can't be relied on arounnd Cheltenham these days and in any event his two Gold Cups were 1) set up by Neptune so the stable could get the bonus and 2) against a below par Denman not even ridden to win the race.
If things pan out it coud still be that Punchestowns lines up (Hendo thinks Ryanair at this stage) and he remains the most exciting unexposed chaser in training (aoart from Big Bucks of course).
Weapons Amnesty loves Cheltenham and last years RSA is by all accounts a great race judging by how everyone thinks Long Run is so great.
Pandorama was trained by a Mr N Meade last time I looked - therefore forget it.
Joncol just doesn't look a Gold Cup horse to me. Looks a typical Irish small field soft ground type horse and is a bit on the gross side.Mansony, Notre Pere, Knight Legend etc.
Of the British Denman and IC stand out - Kauto just can't be relied on arounnd Cheltenham these days and in any event his two Gold Cups were 1) set up by Neptune so the stable could get the bonus and 2) against a below par Denman not even ridden to win the race.
If things pan out it coud still be that Punchestowns lines up (Hendo thinks Ryanair at this stage) and he remains the most exciting unexposed chaser in training (aoart from Big Bucks of course).
5 horses capable of winning it imo.
IC,Denman,Kauto Star,Cooldine and Weapons Amnesty.
Of those IC and WA most likely to.
Nothing else good enough.
IC,Denman,Kauto Star,Cooldine and Weapons Amnesty.
Of those IC and WA most likely to.
Nothing else good enough.
Pandorama better than WA. Joncol will have more improvement this year. He is a danger too. IC and Kauto obviously have a chance given their ratings. Can't see Denman winning given his 3 runs this year, but such a talented horse can never be ruled out.
Ballydoyle you are a total and utter moron. That's the only fact here.
Kauto Star is unbeaten when completing in a chase since April 2008. Only a moron, (ie you) would say such a horse has "no chance" of winning a race he's won twice already.
It really is no wonder good posters have deserted these forums over the past year when you have so many petty, clueless posters covering the place with sh1t.
Kauto Star is unbeaten when completing in a chase since April 2008. Only a moron, (ie you) would say such a horse has "no chance" of winning a race he's won twice already.
It really is no wonder good posters have deserted these forums over the past year when you have so many petty, clueless posters covering the place with sh1t.
I think Imperial Commander, What A Friend and Punchestown are the 3 to side with.
Weapons Amnesty loves Cheltenham it seems.The way he travels and jumps will suit the race well i feel.Have no idea whether Pandorama and Joncol will be suited to Cheltenham.They may prove ok,but out the irish i prefer 2 that have form at Cheltenham,WA and Cooldine.
Anyway CV,would'nt do to agree now would it mate!!
Anyway CV,would'nt do to agree now would it mate!!
Punchestowns will be Hendos Gold Cup horse surely as Long Run isn't up to the task, he's Ryanair bound or skipping Cheltenham for the flat track Aintree..
if WAF is good enough to win a GC,i give up,Punchestowns also.
Can't see Cooldine winning, don't RSA winners have to be Denman class to actually ever win the Gold Cup?
I have witnesssed Imperial Commander all the way from his bumper win, on course the majority of the time, he has every chance of repeating his win, a special horse and course specialist...................with a very good team behind him.
I have to agree with CVByrne. There are doubts about Kauto this year IMO (as per my post) but to say that the horse has no chance is a complete joke. Either Ballydoyle is very drunk (perhaps trying to get over Murtagh's departure) or he doesn't have a clue. Any horse rated 180 plus has a massive chance.
In fact I would absolutey love to see it win - but KG will surely be the crowninng moment for this magnificent creature.
In fact I would absolutey love to see it win - but KG will surely be the crowninng moment for this magnificent creature.
Joined: Date Joined: 09 Feb 05 | Topic/replies: 1 | Blogger: THE BOURNEMOUTH RUNNER's blog
I have witnesssed Imperial Commander all the way from his bumper win, on course the majority of the time, he has every chance of repeating his win, a special horse and course specialist...................with a very good team behind him.
Alternative view is that the horse is wildly incionsistent and just as likely to throw a blob than run well whenever it runs. Trainer is a stubborn little git who denies the basic evidence that the horse needs a minimum 7 week break, cant go right handed and shouldnt even be in the King George. Owners have not got the balls to overrule him as shown by the farce at Aintree last year.
Great horse around Cheltenham - why take the risk at Kempton when there is no upside as it cant possibly win.
I have witnesssed Imperial Commander all the way from his bumper win, on course the majority of the time, he has every chance of repeating his win, a special horse and course specialist...................with a very good team behind him.
Alternative view is that the horse is wildly incionsistent and just as likely to throw a blob than run well whenever it runs. Trainer is a stubborn little git who denies the basic evidence that the horse needs a minimum 7 week break, cant go right handed and shouldnt even be in the King George. Owners have not got the balls to overrule him as shown by the farce at Aintree last year.
Great horse around Cheltenham - why take the risk at Kempton when there is no upside as it cant possibly win.
New Gold Cup winner this season. I think the race will mark the end of an era, Kauto, Denman, IC all 10 or 11 beaten by a new up and coming horse.
Take your pick, plenty of talented progressive young horses.
Take your pick, plenty of talented progressive young horses.
Still a huge price too, utter madness that Long Run is ahead of IC in the betting. Two horse race for me, already have IC backed at 16/1 will take Kauto closer to the day.
They didn't want to go to Aintree - Twister made them and that was the wrong decision.They say they want to on RUK - but that seems to be a show of solidarity unless you know something I don't.
Horse MUUST have a 7 week break - a blind man can see that.
Will be tailed off at Kempton again - obviousy the owners have money to burn and fancy a day out. It's their call.
Horse MUUST have a 7 week break - a blind man can see that.
Will be tailed off at Kempton again - obviousy the owners have money to burn and fancy a day out. It's their call.
Panto - I lead the syndicate - take it from me we want to go to Kempton.
CV,Cooldine is fairly close in the Irish formbook with the likes of Joncol,and has won at Cheltenham.Not particularly bothered about his GC run as he did not settle at all during the race,and i still feel he is capable of running a big race if he is on his game.
I dont think he will win the GC, but i do feel he is one that could surprise if all is well on the day.
Joncol and Pandorama have yet to set foot at Cheltenham,and most of their form in Ireland is fairly closely matched with WA and Cooldine.So on that basis i think WA and Cooldine will have better chances next March.
I dont think he will win the GC, but i do feel he is one that could surprise if all is well on the day.
Joncol and Pandorama have yet to set foot at Cheltenham,and most of their form in Ireland is fairly closely matched with WA and Cooldine.So on that basis i think WA and Cooldine will have better chances next March.
Ok well I can't change my view I think you are mad but I wish you all the best. I hope I am wrong but I think you have it all to lose and nothing to gain.
If it was me (I can dream) it would be Betfair, Aon Chase , Gold Cup.
I notice you don't say you wanted to go to Aintree - even allowing for the fact that you dont have the benefit of hindsight that was a Twister special.
Congratulations on your horse - if you are going to get a good one like that you'd want it to be a Cheltenham specialist any day.
If it was me (I can dream) it would be Betfair, Aon Chase , Gold Cup.
I notice you don't say you wanted to go to Aintree - even allowing for the fact that you dont have the benefit of hindsight that was a Twister special.
Congratulations on your horse - if you are going to get a good one like that you'd want it to be a Cheltenham specialist any day.
bud I suppose I dismissed cooldine based on his punchestown run more than anything. Joncol was still progressing last season, he was still growing, they tried wrong tactics in the Lexus and different tactics won them the Hennessy. He will improve again this season, more than Cooldine will.
But if you forgive Cooldine a few poor runs last season and judge him on his runs this season, the promise he showed in the rsa would be enough to think he will feature. Though I'll have to see evidence of that on a race track.
As for Pando he was not fit for the Knight Frank at christmas and still won, which makes me believe he has loads more to come. Though WA clearly loves cheltenham being a winner twice at the festival.
But if you forgive Cooldine a few poor runs last season and judge him on his runs this season, the promise he showed in the rsa would be enough to think he will feature. Though I'll have to see evidence of that on a race track.
As for Pando he was not fit for the Knight Frank at christmas and still won, which makes me believe he has loads more to come. Though WA clearly loves cheltenham being a winner twice at the festival.
Maybe the Irish will come to the fore this season,certainly got prospects.And with Denman and Kauto getting on a bit,and IC maybe the only other English real candidate.Could we have an Irish winner??
Have backed Denman at 16,cant believe he is bigger than WAF!!But think IC probably the most likely winner at this stage.
Have backed Denman at 16,cant believe he is bigger than WAF!!But think IC probably the most likely winner at this stage.
CV Byrne......Are you going to back Kauto Star in the 2011 Gold Cup at 5-1?
What was his record going into last year's race as an odds-on fav? And what happened then?
Here's stats for you - F121U - his record at the Festival.You can quote your completed races but fences are there to be jumped. He's been beat in two Gold Cups already and third one is coming up next March.
What was his record going into last year's race as an odds-on fav? And what happened then?
Here's stats for you - F121U - his record at the Festival.You can quote your completed races but fences are there to be jumped. He's been beat in two Gold Cups already and third one is coming up next March.
To the best of my knowledge Weapons Amnesty is out for the season. Does anyone on here know otherwise????
i thought he was,but their seems to be a feeling that he may not be,so not sure whats happening to be honest.
Dont believe the trainer, remember Solwhit and Binocular last season!
17 Nov 10 22:17
New Gold Cup winner this season. I think the race will mark the end of an era, Kauto, Denman, IC all 10 or 11 beaten by a new up and coming horse.
Take your pick, plenty of talented progressive young horses.
CVByrne 17 Nov 10 22:27
Still a huge price too, utter madness that Long Run is ahead of IC in the betting. Two horse race for me, already have IC backed at 16/1 will take Kauto closer to the day.
which opinion is yours cv ??
New Gold Cup winner this season. I think the race will mark the end of an era, Kauto, Denman, IC all 10 or 11 beaten by a new up and coming horse.
Take your pick, plenty of talented progressive young horses.
CVByrne 17 Nov 10 22:27
Still a huge price too, utter madness that Long Run is ahead of IC in the betting. Two horse race for me, already have IC backed at 16/1 will take Kauto closer to the day.
which opinion is yours cv ??
So Ballydoyle based on your crude assessment
2/5 at the festival and he is 5/1 for the next festival. Hmmm, sure is tricky to work that one out.
2/5 at the festival and he is 5/1 for the next festival. Hmmm, sure is tricky to work that one out.
You back em CV and I'll lay em./..4/7 last festival I believe....hit the deck when being ridden along...and you think he can win next year
Imperial Commander 16-1 for 2011 Gold Cup?? When was he ever that??
My last post went over your head didn't it. It's understandable you lack basic mathematics.
If Bally has an opinion then you (CV) should at least agree to disagree and give him that ...at this point of the season then i wouldnt say that 5/1 is a sexy nor original bet ...imo the nag has been tremendous but he's had his day. Too many battles to take this.
I can't understand why Weapons Amnesty is such a big price for last years RSA winner (no matter how good a quality field people think it was....or wasn't). Does anyone know if there is something amiss with the horse or is it just that he has not been out yet this season.
Any one think Mikael D win run in Gold Cup ? or Imperial Commander wins it ........ again.
luke, chances are almost 0 id say. he could get plenty of prizemoney elsewhere on the novice chase sceneas hes one of thebest around. i say theyll keep him in novice company as its the obvious thing to do plus he doesnt want driinginto the ground ust back after an injury
What like the RSA? Imperial must be a sure thing for Gold Cup.
Ballydoyle, I'll help you out with a little mathematics lesson, then you could possibly see how your quoted stats say the opposite of what you intended them to. Then you'll see why you look rather silly as usual. Ok, so let's get cracking.
Lesson 1
If a horse wins 2 of 5 runs that means he has 40% strike rate which would equate fair value odds of 6/4. He is currently 5/1. So based on your quoted stat, what would you do?
Answer: Yes, bet at 5/1.
Lesson 2
We'll now work in the odds on the day of racing. Ok, on the day his opening odds were.
2/1 - 6/4 - evns - 7/4 - 4/7
Now the ones in bold were the wins. So for a level stake, do we win or lose over the 5 years?
Answer: We win, we lose 3 that -3, we win @ 6/4 and 7/4 = 3.25 so our net gain is 0.25.
So we learning yet? Good boy. No homework today.
Lesson 1
If a horse wins 2 of 5 runs that means he has 40% strike rate which would equate fair value odds of 6/4. He is currently 5/1. So based on your quoted stat, what would you do?
Answer: Yes, bet at 5/1.
Lesson 2
We'll now work in the odds on the day of racing. Ok, on the day his opening odds were.
2/1 - 6/4 - evns - 7/4 - 4/7
Now the ones in bold were the wins. So for a level stake, do we win or lose over the 5 years?
Answer: We win, we lose 3 that -3, we win @ 6/4 and 7/4 = 3.25 so our net gain is 0.25.
So we learning yet? Good boy. No homework today.
CV Byrne.net gains of 0.25??
Lesson One - cos there is only one.
Imperial Commander 2010 Gold Cup 8-1 £1000 e/w - how many points profit is that? while the old Kauto Star was riding along trying to keep up
Kauto Star - 2011 Gold Cup - no horse has even won a Gold Cup having lost two before. What's the true odds on this considering how many have tried? More than 5-1 quite possibly??? Take yer time.....
Lesson One - cos there is only one.
Imperial Commander 2010 Gold Cup 8-1 £1000 e/w - how many points profit is that? while the old Kauto Star was riding along trying to keep up
Kauto Star - 2011 Gold Cup - no horse has even won a Gold Cup having lost two before. What's the true odds on this considering how many have tried? More than 5-1 quite possibly??? Take yer time.....
CV Byrne.net gains of 0.25??
Lesson One - cos there is only one.
Imperial Commander 2010 Gold Cup 8-1 £1000 e/w - how many points profit is that? while the old Kauto Star was riding along trying to keep up
Kauto Star - 2011 Gold Cup - no horse has even won a Gold Cup having lost two before. What's the true odds on this considering how many have tried? More than 5-1 quite possibly??? Take yer time.....
firstly a quite magnificent piece of aftertiming.
Secondly I dont remember any race ever being priced up solely on the number of times horses have won/regained it. If this years Gold Cup was a 2 horse race between Kauto and ,say, Cant Buy Time, do you think the book would be based on the likelihood of a horse regaing the title for the second time. On that book, accordsing to you Cant Buy Time would be 1/3 - unlikely IMHO.
Lesson One - cos there is only one.
Imperial Commander 2010 Gold Cup 8-1 £1000 e/w - how many points profit is that? while the old Kauto Star was riding along trying to keep up
Kauto Star - 2011 Gold Cup - no horse has even won a Gold Cup having lost two before. What's the true odds on this considering how many have tried? More than 5-1 quite possibly??? Take yer time.....
firstly a quite magnificent piece of aftertiming.
Secondly I dont remember any race ever being priced up solely on the number of times horses have won/regained it. If this years Gold Cup was a 2 horse race between Kauto and ,say, Cant Buy Time, do you think the book would be based on the likelihood of a horse regaing the title for the second time. On that book, accordsing to you Cant Buy Time would be 1/3 - unlikely IMHO.
Also very unlikely IMHO that the 2011 Gold Cup is gonna be a 2 horse race so let's not get silly eh....
To be honest, this is boring me now.
Kauto Star is a legend yes but we ain't talking about that and to say I hate/dislike the horse statles me - on what grounds does CV Byrne base this on? cos I think he is a very poor 5-1 shot for the 2011 Gold Cup? Cos I said in March he was never an odds-on shot? Yes, I will be amazed if he wins but nothing to do with like/dislike, just the cold hard facts that there are horses coming through like the ones I've mentioned and that Kauto Star has had too many battles for my liking, similar to Denman, and at 11yo come March it just aint happening - for either of them.
I will leave it at that and see what happens in March 2011.
To be honest, this is boring me now.
Kauto Star is a legend yes but we ain't talking about that and to say I hate/dislike the horse statles me - on what grounds does CV Byrne base this on? cos I think he is a very poor 5-1 shot for the 2011 Gold Cup? Cos I said in March he was never an odds-on shot? Yes, I will be amazed if he wins but nothing to do with like/dislike, just the cold hard facts that there are horses coming through like the ones I've mentioned and that Kauto Star has had too many battles for my liking, similar to Denman, and at 11yo come March it just aint happening - for either of them.
I will leave it at that and see what happens in March 2011.
I dont think it will win either but for reasons of jumping at that particular track and also in a truly run race I think there are stamina doubts. Both those issues put me off and have been at the heart of all the times the horse has blown out at at Prestbury.
I dont think though the history of defeated champions has got anything to do with it.
anyway hope they all line up could be a cracking renewal.
I dont think though the history of defeated champions has got anything to do with it.
anyway hope they all line up could be a cracking renewal.
Didn't The Fellow win the Gold Cup at something like its 86th attempt [smiley:crazy] , am sure there must be others? Not that I'm looking to intervene.....
could be a stay of execution for the old brigade if nobody else can step up to the mark. Joncol value at the mo
IC that was very impressive and away from Cheltenham....one more run, stay fit and very hard to beat in March
i was at haydock today, imp commander was very very impressive
really really looking forward to this horse at cheltenham. we ALL know he's going to kempton next where he will get stuffed and drift slightly, kauto will win and come in more to a SILLY price, thats when we lay kauto get on the commander and head to cheltenham with a juicy antepost ticket.
i am surprised they are going to kempton with imperial commander. the leopardstown race looks more suited but i guess kempton is closer to home.
By: cyrusdailami When: 20 Nov 10 22:55 really really looking forward to this horse at cheltenham. we ALL know he's going to kempton next where he will get stuffed and drift slightly, kauto will win and come in more to a SILLY price, thats when we lay kauto get on the commander and head to cheltenham with a juicy antepost ticket.
That's the most sense I've seen on this thread...apart from my own points of course
That's the most sense I've seen on this thread...apart from my own points of course
Lets rule out Imperial Commander as only Best Mate has retained this in the last 40 years. Kauto is the only horse ever to regain it, therefore unlikely to do it again and this also applies to Denman. Therefore a new Champion beckons. Possibilities today IMO Diamond Harry but I'm not sure his jumping will hold up at level weights with the top horses. I would be interested in Weapons Amnesty, but appears doubtful starter. This leaves just 2 for me, Burton Port, admittedly beaten by Diamond Harry in the Hennessy, but this is Cheltenham and has better course form, and finally Midnight Chase, who thrives at Chelt, is improving and we don't yet know his true potential.
Just my quick summing up!
Just my quick summing up!
Shockster. Don't waste your money mate. Denman gave Diamond harry the most silly amount of weight and still came third. Not good enough to win a gold cup run at a furious pace at Cheltenham. Please don't have a punt on the handicapper (at best) Midnight Chase in one of the nations best Grade 1s- just money it the layers pocket.
New Champion this year, just not sure who it will be. The stats aren't everything, but they take some getting away from.
Ha, stats mean nothing. Stats are broken every day of the week in racing. The best horse wins on the day. Kauto. Denman. or most probably imperial can take home the 2011 gold cup. I can tell you for free - Diamond Harry and Midnight chase will not be troubling the big boys of level weights. I cannot believe you think Imperial Commander off level weights would be beaten by Midnight Chase. Not a chance.
I will honestly eat my Macbook pro if Midnight chase beats imperial come march.
Cyrus, I am not saying which horse will beat IC,KS and Denman, I just gave my opinion on who i believe are the most likely candidates. The stats STRONGLY suggest the previous winners will get beat.
Get the Ketchup out for your Macbook.
Get the Ketchup out for your Macbook.
Imperial Commander be very hard to beat on the day, just hope he has another run prior to the Gold Cup.
I too think that bar the usual 3 KS, IC,D the only others to have impressed so far are Midnight Chase, Diamond Harry and Burton Port and I think Midnight Chase will at least place, I thought his run on Saturday was magnificent and sometimes horses do work their way up through handicaps to become a Champ.
I do agree with the stats strongly point to a new winner. But the three at the top of the market are not your average horses. They have turned stats on their heads many times. I find it hard to believe that all three of the big guns can be beaten in March.
i find it hard to believe that the big three will be beaten also but donn mcclean makes a compelling argument which is intersting if nothing else.http://donnmcclean.com/2010/12/05/changing-of-the-guard/
also reading barry geraghtys post a few weeks ago on the atr website he said that he thought hed need another 6 lengths to have beaten diamond harry who he thought idled. if thats true then diamond harry may have less to find with denman than many people think. saying that harrys jumping could also deteriorate having to carry 11st 10. midnight chase is a chelters specialist and if he won this weekend like he won on his run before that i could see him running well without winning but looked a bit weary when he won on saturday. i wont have a bet until march because its hard to know what horses will turn up but if i owned a horse like burton port, diamond harry and even midnight chase id be inclined to give it a go given the prizemoney available even for places. mon mome finished 3rd last yr and picked up 50k and id say the likes of the 3 above would be able to finish in front of mon mome so it would be worth tryin. nothing ventured and all that
also reading barry geraghtys post a few weeks ago on the atr website he said that he thought hed need another 6 lengths to have beaten diamond harry who he thought idled. if thats true then diamond harry may have less to find with denman than many people think. saying that harrys jumping could also deteriorate having to carry 11st 10. midnight chase is a chelters specialist and if he won this weekend like he won on his run before that i could see him running well without winning but looked a bit weary when he won on saturday. i wont have a bet until march because its hard to know what horses will turn up but if i owned a horse like burton port, diamond harry and even midnight chase id be inclined to give it a go given the prizemoney available even for places. mon mome finished 3rd last yr and picked up 50k and id say the likes of the 3 above would be able to finish in front of mon mome so it would be worth tryin. nothing ventured and all that
I agree age can catch up with you quickly. But the point I'm making is unlike in the past, there is 3 horses who need to regress significantly. Not one. Three. Three special horses still winning Grade 1's (Kauto/IC) or putting up a 180 in the Hennessy.
Moscow lost all his races the season he was dethroned. Kauto and IC could easily be unbeaten going to Cheltenham in March. With Denman the ratings winner in the Hennessy.
I just think one of those three will win the race again. IC is lightly raced, while Kauto according to his owner and trainer is showing no signs of regression and still loves the game.
There's also no real stand out 2nd season chaser either.
Moscow lost all his races the season he was dethroned. Kauto and IC could easily be unbeaten going to Cheltenham in March. With Denman the ratings winner in the Hennessy.
I just think one of those three will win the race again. IC is lightly raced, while Kauto according to his owner and trainer is showing no signs of regression and still loves the game.
There's also no real stand out 2nd season chaser either.
yeah theyre definately better than in seasons gone by. interesting how war of attrition won the gc rated just 157.the kg might throw out some clues about the gc also.
I can't remember the last Gold Cup winner who didn't run in the King George or Lexus Chase. So yes should be clues alright.
cant see kauto being beaten in the kg tbh and if anything does then it will be v short in price for the gc
Its hard to pick a winner for this one, given Denmans solid run in the Hennessy and going straight to the gold cup, Commander loves it round Cheltenham and Kauto star is, well; Kauto star. I wouldn't want to be on anything else tbh. Think Commander may just edge it.
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