Sizing Europe today

yes agree, china rock with ruby up & looks sure 2 stay the trip.

Whilst I appreciate your point, I am fairly confident that from a breeding perspective he will get the trip.
His sire (Pistolet Bleu) has sired decent horses over three mile trips in Vodka Bleu, Merigo and Parsons Pistol. His dam sire (Mandalus) has a decent dam sire record over staying trips, and sired stayers himself such as Adamant Approach and Sir Rembrandt.
Having said that race fitness and 2lb could be the difference between Sizing and China Rock today.

Agree 100%,also talk of a raid on kempton a little premature.
I know kauto is getting older but the way he jumps and travels around there is simply class.

Sizing Europe has more chance of being beaten than i have of walking barefoot from Nottingham to Alvaston.

SE well worth a bet at 20s for the Gold Cup imo.  A Festival winner and could have been 3 from 3 at Cheltenham bar his injury in latter stages of Champion Hurdle. Goes on any ground, has a strong chance of staying the trip; Gold Cup declared his target if he proves his stamina; Kauto and Denman have doubts hanging over them as do a number of the 'top' novices from last season. Imperial Commander looks the only solid contender to me and 20s SE seems good value.

Have layed him for small stakes win and place today, but if he does stay trip would be very interesting the options he would have.

I wouldnt be sure in a decent race. But I thought China Rock was very lucky to get the win last time and Siegemaster needs it bottomless to be at his best

sjnot sure siegmaster needs it bottomless. That said I would be saying that as Ive backed him small today. Hope they give him a bit of lead and he could put them under a bit of pressure in behind. Hes solid and in a race with a few ? that might be all you need

Drifting like a barge on here.

not seigemaster ;)

this horse is a superstar. gl fella.

Irish racing [;)]

grt ride from Ruby, pinched that two out. wouldn't write SE off over this kind of trip yet though.

IS that person walking to alvaston?

No chance imo Reyes back down in trip for him.

Disappointing. Impossible to say how race fit he was though especially with the huge drift beforehand.

Ran well against a very good and fit horse, hope they stick with the plan.

Ran very well China Rock just stuffed him

Surely you can read into the race more than the bare result sj?
Though going by your previous post I doubt it.

Trainer happy he stayed.

Ok lets say he stayed. How fit did you think he was exactly? What is the goal at cheltenham in your opinion?

Can say one thing if he did stay was simply not good enough and would have no chance against top notch stayers so should drop him back in trip anyway.

Thank you toon

80% at a guess, Probably runs in the Durkan then the King George, unless it goes t1ts up there, I'd say the Gold Cup is still the aim.

Well good luck with that. Being soundly beaten by China Rock and going that route, you know more than me downallstar

I always find the best guide when a good horse gets beat is how the connections react, I'm more than happy with what i'm hearing, obv I would prefer he had won, but he was btn by a very good horse, who was fit, proven over the trip and given a great ride. GL.

H de B:-
De Bromhead was far from disheartened by his stable star's defeat and is keen to have another crack at staying distances in the coming months.

"I thought he ran very well and I thought Ruby and Mouse had their tactics spot-on as they were always going to test us for the trip," the County Waterford handler said.

"His jumping was a little bit rusty but that will improve as we go on and I felt he got the trip, so I'm happy.

"He had a big blow after the fourth last and he'll improve a lot for that.

"I need to speak to Alan and Ann (Potts, owners) and Andrew, but I wouldn't be opposed to it (running over three miles), I thought he stayed on again after the second-last.

"We'd like to know whether we're going two miles or three miles sooner rather than later, so maybe we'll have a look at the Down Royal race (JNwine.com Champion Chase, November 6)."

Trainer obv needs to read this thread and think again

keep him ticking over until the King George, give it his all there then wait until Chelts
should be the plan imo

Trainer obviously knows better than anyone Reyes but i trust my eyes and will be laying it big if it runs in the Down Royal race.

Interesting (to me, at least)that this was just his second run on good ground in three years - beaten both times. He has won on good, been placed, and also looked to be coming to win his Punchestown race on good against Aitmatov, when falling.  Although he plainly acts on it, his record suggests he has a strong preference for some cut, and given Cheltenham's watering policy, he is very likely to get that at the Festival.

Whether that would hinder his chances of staying the Gold Cup trip is another matter.  But his trainer seemed pretty determined he'd stay over three miles until they find the bottom of his stamina.  Given this, and his marked preference for undulating courses (Kempton best avoided for my money), I think pushing him out to 25s for the Gold Cup is an over-reaction and I'll be taking another little bit at that price

One thing is for sure and that is connections were not aiming him at winning this today, their target is Cheltenham in March - tho' choice of race is still up for debate.
This time last year, connections were basically schooling the horse in public, giving him an education over fences, the horse had to learn how to jump at speed and to do that it had to be fit enough to win. This year, they know the horse can jump and is amongst the best around - so preparation will be different this season.
My opinion is that the horse was not given a hard ride today.

Would not touch him with a bargepole for the Gold Cup,3m2f-no thanks.QM or Ryannair maybe.

He will not stay 3 miles 2 imo and i personally think they could ruin a good horse if they continue to pursue it. why are they not heading down the champion chase route?

China Rock is a very good horse and to come second to it on his debut over a trip that was going to test his fitness is no bad thing,China Rock has always been seen as a stayer with alot of potential. Today was the time to lay SE not tomorrow.

blackbeard hows the feet by the way?

i remember people saying a certain KS would never stay 3m (i might have been one of 'em...), he hasn't turned out too bad. My take on it is that they can step back to 2m in time for March (which might be a slightly risky strategy) but have the first half of the season to find out over 3m. He can have 2x3 race seasons in effect - which might even be too many (perhaps 3 + 2) as is no doubt best fresh.

Henry de Bormhead:

"We'd like to know whether we're going two miles or three miles sooner rather than later, so maybe we'll have a look at the Down Royal race (JNwine.com Champion Chase, November 6)."

Am I missing something here? Surely the smart option is two and a half? Plenty of Graded races to mop up in Ireland and top-notch prizes at Ascot and Cheltenham. This horse is the absolute epitome of a Ryanair type - bags of class and some stamina but not an out-and-out stayer. I love him and maintained he was class even after his Champion Hurdle flop and ensuing spell in the wilderness but if he has the stamina to win a Gold Cup I will give the game up. As I say, I really am as far from a knocker of SE as you can get, but he is just not a pure stayer. Better chance in the Queen Mother but best chance in the Ryanair.

they know they've got a special horse and have a question in their minds that he may get the trip....so they're chancing a gold cup routine with the knowledge that they can revert back if it goes wrong
listening to the trainer i got the impression that he didn't really get the message that he stayed today, and emphasised that the next race over 3 would really tell them, the worry for me is if he took on kauto and had the guts knocked out of him in the attempt to prove that he got the trip, it could knacker him for the rest of the season.

SE's longest race before today was over 20f on heavy ground - won easily. He's won 5 from 13 over 2 miles. Before today he was unbeaten when completing sound in all races beyond 2 miles, including a very easy defeat of Osana at Cheltenham on soft ground.  On this evidence, his connections have every justification in trying to gauge the limit of his stamina.

I'm not saying he will get the Gold Cup trip but all those asking why he's not being kept to 2 miles can see the answer in the form book.

Agree entirely with what Steeplechasing says - my comments are really from an ante-post point of view. I don't think he is a bet for the Gold Cup because everything I have ever seen in this horse suggests he will never get home in a truly-run GC. As I say, he is an absolute standout for the Ryanair IMO.

too good for the Ryanair imo. GC or QM or bust!

agree tomdeane, but sounds like de brom wants either QM or GC.

Just kills me every year we get this - I totally understand the history and prestige can out people off the Ryanair, but it's a Grade One championship race at the biggest Festival on the planet. If I had a horse that was perfect for the race I sure as heck know I would be over the moon to see him jump off with a huge chance, rather than chasing rainbows in the Gold Cup.

no way the ryannair is an option...they want to know whether he could realistically compete in a gold cup....they already know how good he is over 2, as he is a champion at that distance....the ryannair doesn't come into it as we're not talking about a horse who isn't quick enough for one and not enough stamina for the other....he's proven over one...and they simply need to find out about the other.

the other thing is that we're not necessarily looking at the 3 miles 2 of the gold cup at this point...we're looking at 3 miles around kempton aren't we....big difference....they've got every entitlement to see if they've got a potential king george winner.

Two points to add to that:

Fisrtly, I completely agree that the King George is a race that connections could legitimately be eyeing up - granted of course that Kauto is below his best. Secondly, do we know he has the speed these days to win the QM? A narrow defeat of Somersby does not scream speed - he couldn't beat Golden Silver or Forpady at Punchestown and that doesn't suggest he is the quickest thing on four legs.

On a related note, having been all over Somersby for the Arkle last year, I have completely revised my opinion about him. Doesn't look quite top class and although his jumping will always stand him in good stead, he could struggle to win championship races over any distance as he lacks a gear when the big boys quicken.

Who the fk wants to set out at the start of the season to win a Ryanair?? Which ever race he runs in at Chelt, he sure as hell won't be the fkn ryanair!

After Haydock and Imperial Commander last yr i wouldn't be quick to dismiss a horse of staying 3 miles when connections believe he will. We now know through Bobby Dazzler there were mitigating circumstances with IC. However, i believe if Sizing were to prove himself a capable 3miler he should have beaten a 142 rated horse even allowing for race fitness and the likelihood that China looks an improver. Afterall he's now 8 (9 for next yrs cheltenham) and he's a wee bit long in the tooth to be establishing if he can stay the trip.

There were question marks over Kauto getting 3 miles and he has proven to be one of the all time greats so its worth a shot. Hope he stays away from the John Durkan

tomdeane -
just a few points on your last post...

The slow pace at Punchestown set the race up for Golden Silver(Willie Mullins admitted the fast pace of Chelt doesn't suit him), and was a negitive for both Sizing & Forpady. Debromhead went for this race over the Novice as he thought there would be more pace, turned out to be the other way round - Twist Magic refusing didn't help.

Somersby got a kick at the start at Aintree, so that run can be ignored - I expect him to be really decent this year.

tomdeane
agree with you on somersby ...i loved him last year and must have watched the sandown race a hundred times....nothing wrong with his arkle run but the way he performed at aintree was shocking....can't see him staying 3 and the way he ran at aintree will only serve to re-inforce in the trainers mind that the horse should only be allowed onto the race course once or twice a year....it will be frustrating supporting somersby from now on...can't be doing with another hen knight horse i'm afraid.

Well fook me, I'm not talking about the new two-and-a-half-mile novice chase, I'm talking about a Grade One championship race. And, as I've said before, I'm not saying connections shouldn't be experimenting so that they know where they are going, I'm saying Sizing Europe does not have the stamina to win a Gold Cup, and that he might well not have the speed these days to win a Queen Mother. Hence the Ryanair suggestion. A race in which he could very well end up in come March.

must admit to not realizing about the kick at the start of the aintree race....but in saying that the time it will take to get the cotton wool off that leg ...we might all have gone home

Swin[;)]

tom - my agression was at the ryanair, not you

Must confess I hadn't heard about the kick at Aintree either, but as duffy says, it's not going to inspire Hen to attack with him this year.

downallstar - I take your point about the pace not suiting SE at Punchestown but as you mention, it will certainly not have suited Forpady, who needs a good lick to utilise his crusing speed even more than SE. So, for all that Forpady is a smashing horse, he is probably just a few pounds below the very best and he still finished in front of SE. Just enough of a doubt for me that SE has the pace to be fully effective in a QM to believe connections - sooner or later - will give very serious consideration to the Ryanair.

SE not enough pace for the Queen Mother? IMO he would be very well suited by a fast ran 2 miles and would easily have the pace. His best career performance IMO was in last years Arkle over 2 miles where his pace and jumping grounded everything else to the floor. I would love for him to stay but I hope they don't mess him about this season and end up thinking why did we do that!?

masterminded
if your name sake isn't in decline and all goes well with him , i'm hoping they miss out the game spirit in the hope that he arrives at the festival in the sort of form that he was when he won at newbury last season.

masterminded i think the horse is a cracker. i think pfn is a great trainer and i hope he gives his heart to the cause of getting him back on track but i worry that with the ammo hes got in this division he wont be overly worried about his fate. i sincerely hope for racings sake that he gets back on track

Ryanair? rofl

It does look the perfect race for him.Connections seem to want a bigger pot and thats fair enough if the horse is up to it,if its not its bl00dy stupid.
Time will tell as always,but to train a horse for the QM or GC you really dont want to be messing about too much with different distances,unless you have a Kauto!!

As mentioned briefly in my earlier post, I think the King George would be a mistake.  He has never run on a sharp track, can still look rather gangly and disorganised, and I think a KG run would do much more damage than good.

Yes, I think those are good points, Steeplechasing. The typical pace in the KG, the nature of the fences, and the sharpness of the track, all readily conspire against the less experienced jumpers, imo, and particularly so if the horse is not especially nimble and quick in adjusting its stride at the fences. And Kempton is very much a track where, if the jumping isn't pretty much spot on, horses can quickly lose a lot of ground and find themselves struggling with confidence and being unsettled by the pressure they come under.

I have the impression SE is a safe, clean enough jumper, but not especially nimble or athletic and I just have the sense (possibly unfounded) that he may be one who could get knocked out of his jumping rhythm a little more easily than some on a track like Kempton that doesn't necessarily play to the strengths of a strong galloper.

Agreed aka. The horse always looked as if he wasn't quite sure what to do when approaching a hurdle and he still does not look the finished article over fences. He seems a careful jumper who's priority is to keep himself safe. His record on softer ground suggests that the generally slower pace on such a surface suits him as he has more time to get organised without losing touch with the others.

I'm not yet convinced either that they have found the best way to ride him. He seems a naturally keen type between his fences and his high cruising speed and apparent liking for plenty daylight suggests he might be well worth trying from the front. Connections seem to have made some half-hearted attempts at front running before, but they ought to commit for a full race, imo, and see what happens.

He got beat yesterday soundly by by CHINA ROCK RATED 142 [smiley:crazy] Gold Cup horse my harris

Steeplechasing i agree with you completely when you say he is worth trying from the front. I think they are doing the right thing seeing will he stay the three miles but i think they would be much better off giving the horse his head and let him gallop and jump. To me the horse has a high cruising speed but doesnt really have a big gear change in him. On another note i cant see how people can say a winner of an irish champion hurdle and an arkle doesnt have the speed for a champion chase

sj, Morris has always thought a lot of China Rock and it looks like the horse is now fulfilling his promise.  He certainly ran well above his rating yesterday with ground, trip and fitness in his favour. Morris says he'll now compete with Grade 1 horses so it might be best to wait and see how he performs before condemning SE on the basis of that defeat.

??? Where has all of this talk of Master Minded come from? I was talking about Sizing Europe???

I think he was lucky to win the time before steeplechasing, but time will tell.

Indeed sj. No real connection, I know, but Planet of Sound was rated 142 in January 09 and last time out beat two Gold Cup winners!

moneypenny > AIG was on yielding ground with Hardy Eustace and co making it a proper test of stamina and, although you obviously have to have speed to win an Arkle, it is much more of a stamina test than many people are still prepared to concede.

SE certainly has the pace to win Grade One races over two miles but I think he would be found out if the ground is good or better in a lightning fast QM. Especially, as a few have alluded to, because I don't think he is a real quick jumper.

You can all laugh but I maintain he will end up in the Ryanair.

Name a better jumper of a fence, esp a novice.
His jumping the other day was a little rusty, but that is being very picky.
His jumping on the whole last season was as good as I've seen. The horse has a massive engine, and a very high crusing speed. Will come on a hell of a lot for that run.

Agree - not put off by that performance. Like some though, am concerned the trainer may 'mess about' with the horse too much trying to establish whether he can challenge the best over 3 miles, and that he'll ultimately fall between two stools, and not end up achieving very much.

He'll have to come on a hell of a lot as well wont he? Could you imagine Denman and Kauto against China Rock

Well we'll see how China Rock gets on at Down Royal. Horses can improve sj.

They sure can mate

Dont blame connections for trying this route and being remaining positive after what was a decent enough effort first time up. I wouldnt want them to persevere for too long mind...

I dont think he'd ever stay well enough to win a GC.

The undulating and testing Down Royal should prove a sound test if SE turns up there - I believe the track will suit him nicely. 

From a practical viewpoint, I'm on tomdeane's side as far as the suitability of the Ryanair goes for these in-between horses. But that's for the realists in this game and there ain't too many of them around.  Glory is the target, as Bobby Dazzler proved with such panache and courage last season when the Ryanair looked a penalty kick for Imperial Commander.

Unless Sizing Europe proves a blatant non stayer, I think you will see him in the Gold Cup.

sizing is a great price for GC.WOA and KK are 2 arkle  horses who went on to win KG and GC

Better to be a realist then ruin a horse trying for personal glory,lets hope they know his capabilities sooner rather than later.

I'm confused why they aren't committed to the QM.

He's an Arkle winner, Irish Champion hurdle winner, and but for injury probably a Champion Hurdle winner?

His exuberant style of racing as a novice chaser - front running and great jumping seems perfect for the QM.

Agree Uncle. I just don't get why it isn't going down a traditional Gold Cup route. This season could be a write off if they are not careful.

Soory that should read Champion Chase route !

Master Minded (5/2) , Big Zeb (10/3) , Somersby (7) , Woolcombe Folly (41/5) , Captain Cee Bee (14) , Golden Silver (14) , Sizing Europe (14) , Tataniano (16) , French Opera (26) , Mad Max (40) , JY Vole (66) , Im So Lucky (100) , Scotsirish (150) , Cornas (161) , Gauvain (161) , Kalahari King (199) , Sports Line (339) , Zaarito (439) , Psycho (459) , Long Run (469)  - Others 654 or more

If that is your way of saying "I think Sizing Europe has a good chance in the Champion Chase at 14/1", why don't you just say that CMIYC?

Has there been any updates from Ireland recently regarding Sizing?

All quiet on the Sizing front. They are keeping a low profile

Having a gallop at Dundalk very soon.

I'm glad they saw sense in the end

Yes Travis,

ALMOST a forgotten horse don't you tink [:o]