Cheltenham Festival
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My guess
Wins in Ireland
2nd in King George (dont know who beats him)
gallant 3rd in Gold Cup
Retirement announced.
Wins in Ireland
2nd in King George (dont know who beats him)
gallant 3rd in Gold Cup
Retirement announced.
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wins in ireland
wins a hard race in the king george winning by about a lenght or less goes off favorite for the gold cup but the grounds slow side of good and comes a close 2nd. retirements announced. |
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Wins in Ireland
Wins on bridle again in King George Second in Gold Cup (would LOVE him to win though) |
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What beats him in Gold Cup FFT?
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Don't know tbh, just think he'll find one too good. Probably one of the Henderson horses
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goes to ireland,
travels well for first 2 miles but soon the distress are showing. trails in a well beaten and tired 3rd excuses are made, but after a couple of weeks retirement is announced lives a long well deserved retirement with his old rival denman |
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Whatever happens, the 2.82 presently for the King George looks way too short.
Ten, rising eleven, French bred, could go out like a light. Hope not because I'd like to see him bow out by completing at the Gold Cup, but 2.82 is criminal. |
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Wins or falls next 4 races until 2011 king george where he gets beat and retirement announced
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WINS IN IRELAND
PULLED UP IN KING GEORGE (6/4) RETIREMENT ANOUNCED END OF AN ERA AND A STAR  |
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If he struggles to win the King George, he won't start favourite for the Gold Cup.
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wins DR
wins Kempton - and i'll be there to cheer him on (god willing) injury mid feb, retired, parades to packed Chelts grandstand at the Festival before going off to a film career via a statue sitting |
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Falls at Down royal
retired |
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Got to keep this thread, half of the above posters are posting what they want to happen rather than what they honestly think will happen. In all likely hood if he stays on his feet he'll win at Down Royal and win a Kempton, age will catch up with him in the Gold Cup where a younger horse and new winner will be crowned.
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CVByrne what people are saying is not much different to what you have said. Some people say he will fall, you said 'if he stays on his feet'. You like a few others know at the back of your mind that the fall in the GC thrown in with age might just be enough. I don't think anyone would grudge him winning all 3 this season.
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If any "distress signs" were showing now he would have been retired already
Paul Nicholls will know how he is, and i'm sure he more than anybody would not want a sad end for the greatest NH horse for over 40 years |
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until he steps onto the race track nobody will know
they are not machines and in his 7th year as a chaser i really can't see how he can keep up this level of form i hope i am wrong but i am betting based on my theory moscow flyer never showed any signs at home at the start of his last season, but once he was asked to race he was 2 stone below his form from the previous season, where he had looked invincible |
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Nonsense Graeme, loads of people on here grudge him every victory. For every person on here who cherishes having such an outstanding chaser around there is one who needs to knock him. You want to see him fall and be retired. No other reason to say that. Down Royal should be a cake walk for Kauto. He's only fallen 3 times in his entire career and once he unseated, no reason to believe he will fto in a training race. Certainly no reason, baring injury to believe he'll be retired even of he does.
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Also Moscow was a lot older than Kauto and was in the 2mile devision where pace is everything.
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Wins at Down Royal.
Batters Long Run by eight lengths in the King George and is crowned the first fifth-timer in history. Retired to a field with Denman after his tear jerking victory and historic third Hennessy. The Legends live a long and happy retirement together in a lovely green field. That's what I hope for anyway  |
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Nah gallant 3rd for Denman in Hennessy, win for Kauto in King George, both are beaten into 4th and 2nd respectively in Gold Cup by a younger horse. Then retired.
I actually don;t think this is Kauto's last year. If he wins the King George they'll come back for a 6th. The day he loses at Kempton, he'll be retired after the Gold Cup. |
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2nd Down Royal - Needing run to put him spot on.
Wins KG easily. Wins Ryanair Chase and retires. Dont believe Denman will run in the Hennessy. |
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Good point by Brandy i think about Moscow Flyer once they decline they decline quickly whatever happens Nicholls will do what's best for the horse. Fwiw I think if he gets beat in the King George will be retired.
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That is utter nonsense, wins Ryanair, so you think he'll win the King George for the 5th time and then go for the Ryanair. Riiiiiggght.
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Oh and Paul Nicholls has stated in his column for betfair that Denman goes for a 3rd Hennessy.
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wins in ireland,wins king george.wins gold cup,wins betfair.wins king george.wins gold cup
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i dont begrudge kauto one single victory.
quite the contrary. i am privileged to have seen the great chaser in my life time if he comes out as good as ever i will hold my hands up and say i got it wrong. and be only to happy to watch him excite us all again but from a punting point of view i'm getting a good price on other horses in the king george before the distress signals are visible in ireland |
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Who wins the Hennessy in your opinion CVByrne?
By the way, I said that's what I hope will happen. Although we were saying exactly the same about Denman in last years Hennessy, and we all know what happened there... I would love Kauto to be retired undefeated this season and his final swansong to be the King George. He will only get worse around Cheltenham in my opinion. |
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I want the horse to retire fit and well, and not go the way of the likes of One Man or Alverton.
You have to be honest with yourselves tho'. The horse has an official rating of 190 and if it loses 20lb this season (which it won't) it should still "technically" be capable of winning an "average" Gold Cup. My own opinion is that the horse owes nobody anything, and Paul Nicholls knows that (as well as his owner). At the first sign that the horse may not be capable of winning the next Gold Cup it competes in (be it the 2011 GC, 2012, or 2013) then Kauto will be retired. So, I believe that the horse will be retired when it next gets beat (having finished the race). I said "you have to be honest with yourselves" because when you take an unbiased look at that OR190 rating then you are left with the question, is it right or is it wrong? Also, unless you think that Kauto will be in with a chance of winning the 2013 Gold Cup as a 13yo, then his rating will have to start going into decline at a rate of knots fairly soon. I know some chasers go on running-well past their official 12th birthday, but there's none I know of that have run in 17 Grade 1 chases. |
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Oh, what I hope will happen is Denman wins Hennessy, Kauto wins King George and it's a dead heat between the two in the Gold Cup. Then connections decide to retire both horses. That would be the dream scenario.
I was never saying Denman would be beat in last years Hennessy, I backed him and that was the greatest race I've ever seem. Awesome, the leaps he put in. What a magical horse. Who'll win The Hennessy? Hmmm no idea. Plendy of good second season chasers with nice marks. But Denman is no 182 horse anymore, his 3 runs this year imo were average at best. The handicapper thinks he ran a 178 in the Gold Cup, he did in his arse run a 178. |
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"Nonsense Graeme, loads of people on here grudge him every victory. For every person on here who cherishes having such an outstanding chaser around there is one who needs to knock him. You want to see him fall and be retired. No other reason to say that. Down Royal should be a cake walk for Kauto. He's only fallen 3 times in his entire career and once he unseated, no reason to believe he will fto in a training race. Certainly no reason, baring injury to believe he'll be retired even of he does. "
What a complete and load of utter rubbish. How can you translate "i don't think anyone would grudge him winning all three races this season" in to "you want to see him fall and be retired". Are you one of these people who act as if you like the horse more than everybody else and have to make up lies to make yourself an uber Kauto fan. Are you Rusty's brother ? |
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^^^^^ brilliant
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Why say Kauto falls at Down Royal and is retired? The chances that that will happen are slim, the only reason to say such a thing is because you want it to happen. You want the horse to retire. This forum is full of people against this horse and other horses. I like horses, I never want any of them to fall and be retired. I love Kauto because he's a fantastic horse, I love Denman because he's a fantastic horse. I feel privaleged when I get to see horses like them.
I think to say Falls at Down Royal and is retired is disrespectful to a great horse as it has no basis in plausable opinion. |
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By the way Wayward, excellent post. I think you're bang on the money. The day he's beaten on merit crossing the finish line then that will be his final season.
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Having a nasty fall at Cheltenham and being lucky to get up is no basis to think that it could effect the horse psychologically ?
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He was unhurt, and has fallen before. Loads of horses have taken crashing falls it happens all the time, why should Kauto have psychological damage when in general terms it rarely happens.
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Considering he was unable to train for a month after his fall, saying he was 'unhurt' is exaggerating the truth.
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I didn't see the 2006 QM race, but Haydock wasn't a bad fall. CV take another look at the GC again, he went crashing to the ground. It wasn't a case of a run of the mill fall. He took the fence unconvincingly and went sliding across the deck. I feel that if he gets reminders like he was getting in the Gold Cup, and the fences come fast at him he in my opinion may fall. I've nothing against the horse and seeing him on the television on boxing day is a great sight,and i hope he wins the KG.
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Lee why on earth would he be training after his season was over? He was out in a field like he always is after the Gold Cup.
Also I'm not saying he didn't take a crashing fall in the Gold Cup, he did. But plenty of horses take crashing falls and it's uncommon that they suffer psychological damage that makes them fall next time out. Bad jumpers fall regularly, Kauto is an excellent jumper. It's the usual thing though with Kauto, the amount of analysis and over analysis of the few mistakes and defeats he suffers. Look horses falls and horses take crashing falls, they normally come back fine from them. Why is it any different for Kauto? It isn't. |
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if you watched the fall in the gold cup and freezed the film and then asked people who didn't know ...what happened next.....not too many would say ...horse gets up unhurt.....it looked a horror...and we can't take for granted that it wouldn't leave mark on him mentally.
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hope he wins every race he competes in though.
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