Long Run!

No he may well not be a kempton horse but the discussion about him was when dwm said long run only had one horse to beat. I'd be confident if IC hasn't made the blunder last year he'd have at least stayed on for second. Long Run has more than one horse to beat is my argument.

IC not a Kempton horse..

I agree CVB, IC's price is insulting. I dont know which of the 3 will win it (personally cannot see beyond them) but IC shou;d not be ruled out imo.

he was a class horse
perhaps past his best now

bit unfair imo^

past his best at his age... prob not id say. class horse

"Well the King George had been a one horse race the past three years, now it's a two horse race, and with one a fading force, why is it so daft to declare him a cert"!?
yep,kauto is a fading force because he  FELL in the gold cup,
some people on here really do make ye laugh!

Exactly, can't see that point of view either tbh. Kauto ran a similar race in the 2008 Gold Cup, only there he didn't fall.

People forget he put up a scintillating career best less than a year ago in his second last start in his 4TH King George, when really he should have been regressing.

When I see obvious signs that he's past it, i'll accept it.

it is pure guess work as to whether kauto will regress this year. as we all saw last season in his kempton romp he looked better than ever. but when a seasoned horse comes out of the field to start another campaign he can regress very quickly from the previous season.  moscow flyer is a prime example of that.  they dont slowly regress pound by pound.    its normally a stone or 2.    surely he cant be at his best for another season.  but at this stage its all guess work, and he is the mighty kauto i suppose

Could I table an outrageous view in that I believe his 2007 victory in the KG was his best performance in the race and not last years victory. Any view that he is now regressing is surely speculative, at the top level jumping really is the name of the game - and he was never going to get competitive in the GC after the first mistake. In similar fashion the third last at Haydock and the 2nd fence in the KG cost IC dearly.

Agreed Bobby, Kauto's jumping won him the Betfair chase. IC's early mistake cost him any chance in the King George though Kauto would've been hard to beat none the less. With Kauto's early mistake costing him any chance in the Gold Cup.

I hope the two of them have another season at the top in them, they've been lightly campaigned in recent years. I personally think it'll need to be a jumping mistake to cost Kauto this year in the King George if he retains most of his ability. Though IC's price is a bit of an insult given his class.

Kauto will be difficult to beat around Kempton. But IC was not a well horse in his first appearance and blundered away his chance last year. He will be kept away from trouble and allowed to bowl along and jump this year - on that basis his price is attractive as on form on the book he is the main opposition.

I think Kempton particularly is a course where there can be a danger of chasing the pace a bit too hard. Though, of course, it is also a track where a horse can soon lose a lot of ground if they aren't kept up to it.

With IC, he probably has enough class (travels and jumps well enough) for the jockey to be able to negotiate a way through those two potential pitfalls of competing at Kempton in top company. At the very least, kept away from trouble and allowed to bowl along, IC strikes me as the one most likely to be on the premises at the end to take advantage of any slips from those who may have gone too hard or don't quite get the trip well enough on such competitive terms. And if there is any regression with Kauto (I hope there isn't), the further he goes the more vulnerable he will be.

There would be much dafter bets than backing both Kauto and IC for the KG at current prices. If Kauto isn't at his best, I wouldn't be falling over myself to bet against IC being able to chase down any of the less experienced ones who manage to get a lead on him with an exuberant, or pressured,  display in the earlier stages of the race.

don't the punters like What A Friend, i feel it may be his year

IMO WAF has been brilliantly campaigned and placed but i would be staggered if the form of his Irish and Aintree wins turns out to be anything other than v ordinary.Imo they were v suspect races.

Agreed RCarver

Agree with both

Personally think long run will be awesome this year.  had a summers break, surely climatise to the uk by now so am expecting big things this year.  I think he will go for the gold cup, and go close at that, if he runs well/wins the king george i cannot see them going for ryanair.  The horse was bought for to run in a gold cup.  It actually has had more life time runs as WAF and has 1 more lifetime start than Imperial Commander had starting last season and we all know what he achieved.

Think he has enough expeirence to have a go at the big guns this year and is my 1st antepost bet of the season (for GC).

never win a gold cup... thout a jockey!

wouodnt beat kauto star with a rocket up its aas

imperial commander is ueless round kempton

am i right in sayin ic hasnt any form going right handed? im sure twisty said he wont run in king george again.

no good form away from cheltenham

part from the betfair last year . but ic isnt a true stayer of a true run 3miles 2f . the gold cup last year they dawdled from start to finish

of course he stays 3m2

yet to prove it . gold cup last year they walked for first 2 miles. im not on the wind up

That must of been a different Ic that outran and outstayed them in the GC last year then

well my opinion lads. who can argue that the gold cup was ran in a decent pace last year i dont think any 1 can

a horse cant win a gold cup if he doesnt stay the trip. i havnt seen it yet anyway

r u stupid danders? he won a gold cup of course he stays! he out stayed denman and he is being tipped for the grand national for years!

I can argue because the time was faster then kauto win in 2009 and denman in 2008! yes it was officially good on GC day 2010 but i suspect it was more good to soft!

you are a fool

Yes but do Kauto Star and Denman really stay 3 and a quarter?

I am of course joking, btw

I can honestly say I do not think I have ever seen such a blindingly stupid statement as that Dananders

dananders Joined: 14 Jan 09
Replies: 5194 30 Sep 10 19:48 
part from the betfair last year . but ic isnt a true stayer of a true run 3miles 2f . the gold cup last year they dawdled from start to finish


Nurse

alrite lads calm down ive not raped ure mum. i dont think gold cup last year was much of a test of stamina. and denman wasnt anywhere enar his peak imo

Also ICs owner, no less, has himself confirmed on this very forum that IC will run in the KG and very eloquently explained his previous under-par runs

what are the reasons? horse is terrible when not having alot of time inbetween its races?

Dananders - times of the last four Gold Cups all run on good to soft ground. Can you explain to me how the 2010 time was achieved off after walking for 2 miles ?

2007    Kauto Star 6m 40.5s
2008    Denman 6m 47.8s
2009    Kauto Star 6m 44.9s
2010    Imperial Commander 6m 43.9s

Dananders - times of the last four Gold Cups all run on good to soft ground. Can you explain to me how the 2010 time was achieved  after walking for 2 miles ?

2007    Kauto Star 6m 40.5s
2008    Denman 6m 47.8s
2009    Kauto Star 6m 44.9s
2010    Imperial Commander 6m 43.9s

dan, you are an idiot plain and simple. that 19.48 post sums you up completely


Also, I think Imperial Commander's owner might know a thing or two more about the horse than you do


hope this helps

it is clear from the last 10 or so replies that dananders has been correctly pigeon holed in the "ignore everything this clown post" box.  You should hook up with claudia dananders and talk some real horses about washingmachine irvine for this years champ hurdle, he finished 4th in a derby u know...

youd hope so wouldnt u. and bobby i heard u the first time. well fair enough times dont lie as they say im an honourable lad ill accept that im talking bolurx on this occasion. hes a good horse not in the same class as kingkauto

fair play dananders for admiting it

big bucks youre doign a good job of ignoring my posts. the thing is you have to say u think im an idiot when it goes without saying im well known for it on here im a wind up merchant . the robbie savage of the betfair forum. a couple on here have said they ignore my posts before and then comment on every comment i make

i agree dan has talked rubbish, but forget about the over all times because they do not tell the story.  this years gold was not run at a fast pace end of. it wasn't a walk like dan says but it was hardly break neck.  just watch the race and see

truth be told ill crab any horse over the jumps whos not had ruby sit on its back.

Any way back to the title of the thread, anyway they jock off SWC??

An extra stone on its back b4 it starts

cant jump well enough and will be in trouble against the big boys . paddy power not exactly the ideal race for the way he jumps. ive said this before and was balooned at . y not put him over hurdles jumps exactly the same way big bucks jumped fences but i dont think hed stay 3 miles round chelters ever. barbers shop is another 1 who jumps terribly at the business end of races and doesnt luk a natural jumper

Brandyontherocks - I agree the time of any race is not an absolute guide, but the Gold Cup is unique as it has a defined standard in terms of the level of performance required to win. The times over the last 50 years are remarkably consistent when grouped by official going.

This could be a statistical quirk, or it could be because official good to soft is becoming increasingly softer, It would also have to apply too all types of ground from Good/Firm to Heavy. 

Having seen the last 25 renewals I would be confident that isn't the case indeed since the new drainage the ground will never be as heavy as it was. The fences are smaller and thinner, allowing recovery from mistakes which would have finished you race in former years, and the weights have been reduced by 4lbs.

Still the times remain in a very tightly knit range.

It also doesn't appear to matter how fast or slowly they go - off a fast pace the horses appear to fade, of a slow pace they quicken or hold their speed. The overall times irrespective of pace remain in the same closely matched grouping.

Sectional times at Cheltenham are difficult to achieve over the 50 year period, but what can be deciphered is first and second circuit times. This years race was run at a steady enough gallop on the first circuit, the second circuit was absolutely brutal and 19 seconds quicker than the first. That showed in how the field spread quickly as the pace was injected. The time as you can see fits within a 7 second range, that range remains the same on GS going over the last 25 renewals.

That would indicate that in order to win a Gold Cup there is a clearly defined standard you have to reach, and that the standard required takes the best horses to the limits of their abilities, (given there is no  evidence any one winner has been able to signnifcantly out perform any other)

It would also indicate that we are not in a golded age of chasers, because non of the current crop have been able to beat the standard of the last 50 years despite easier fences, better ground and 4lbs less in weight.

That's really odd isn't it Bobby, you would have thought with the better understanding of nutrition, fitness, training etc. the standard would have soared in the last 10/20 years, especially with, as you say, less weight, easier fences. Do you think the breed is less hardy than of yester year as a whole?

Quvega - that is my conclusion. The heavy boned chaser of yesterday seems as efficient as the new slimline model when facing the ultimate test. It is inevitable the breed will get lighter  still as the flat boys are obsessed with speed and the sires they are producing have less and less substance. I still preferred the old fashioned chasers though !

I would have to agree, fabulous as Kauto is, I find the old fashioned chaser types such as Denman and IC himself infinitely more appealing. It would be a real shame if their type were bred out but the whole complexion of NH racing does seem to be moving more towards the speedier bloodlines as you say. It will eventually change the nature of the GC as a staying spectacle I guess.

If I am right the times will start to decline over the next 10 years or so - at the moment I think the balance of flat speed vs stamina is in eequilibrium hence the statistical consistency of times. However with the ever increasing emphasis on speed within the flat sector the stamina quota must eventually start to diminish and impact on GC performances.

How can we stop this! Yours would seem the logical and inevitable conclusion to draw unfortunately. I love the NH because it's not the flat.

Me too - but don't know how to stop it. Everytime I go to the sales it becomes more and more difficult to find the right model.

Guess we're going to have to learn to love the speedy, flashy types then rather than the old war warrior types who look as if they'd run with and for you all day. Not an especially inspiring vision of the future where the two disciplines merge into one, vive la difference say I.

lads, ive been reading this thread and it comes accross that you are both very intelligent people. please help me with my efforts to convince this person in the "hughes and abdulla" thread on the horseracing forum

I'm not allowed on the horse racing threads under the terms of my restraining order

Bobby - fewer and fewer jodami's around now. What a specimen he was. Btw, whilst i accept (and have always thought) there is no reason to believe we are in a golden age in terms of the raw materials (the horses) i think jumping is in a golden age for all sorts of other reasons. Anyway, thats not my point, and i dont know why i said it (!), but what i was trying to say is that even though the times are fairly consistent (or very consistent even), i believe there are good, average and bad renewals.

Sorry Reve, just read the thread and I'm actually not quite sure that I understand the argument!

the other lad is giving out about the fact that jockeys are not trying to win for him, theyre trying to win for connections which is true but doesit matter, if theyre trying to win a race, it suits everyone..... including him

43 new posts? I'll read it in the morning. Has to be an argument not a discussion.

Restraining order Bobby , you get a bit unruly?

sure is cvb. not getting thru so i just appologised as im not getting anywhere

Hi RCarver - I agree there are bound to be variations in the overall quality of all races, but it seems the winners performance is consistently in the same band. What complicates the issue is the handicapper has lost the plot. Consider Best Mate and Kauto Star, excluding Best Mates win in 2002 there is less than 5 seconds between their remaining four winning times (Best Mate carried 12 stone when recording the best of the 4 times in 2003.

Best Mate saw off the likes of Truckers Tavern, Commanche Court, Malborough, First Gold, Beef or Salmon, Sir Rembrandt and Keen Leader in his two victories. Kauto competed against the likes of Denman, Exotic Dancer, Neptune Collonges, My Will, The Listener and Monkerhostin.

In the opinion of the handicapper Kauto is 28lbs superior to Best Mate - and folk law on this forum is that Best Mate won three poor Gold Cups.

Not sure I can see much difference either in the quality of opposition, or the level of the performances, especially a Denman was far from his best when beaten in 2009.

best mate was definately as good as kauto star is i think. both very good but difference between them is minimal id say

I should be clear that I think Kauto is absolutely exceptional - but he is exceptional for the brilliant consistency with which he produces championship standard performances, not because his championship performances are outstandingly better than the performances of past champions.

i meant the same but am not as good with words as you can see. but kauto 28 lbs better..... i think not

Wouldn't have minded the chance to risk a few quid on BM off those terms

hah no. put the whole kitty on

Hi Bobby, I agree with all that. I agree too re Kauto - his high form level consistency and high form level consistency over a variety of different trips are what i like most about the horse. He's obviously achieved tonnes more over staying trips, but he's as good as any 2 miler i have seen.

Anyway, anyway, my rambling aside, i agree that the handicapper has gone bananas. And the press overhype them. The way the handicapper reacts to debutant novices is, for me, in danger of ruining hte novice game. I recall one horse last yr (i'll not name it) winning an egg and spoon race last yr at a gaff track midweek, first time out. Horse gets a mark in the mid 140's. I feel trainers are almost forced to run babies in handicaps for good money because if they go the traditional route they will blow their mark winning 3 small prizes.

eh...140 after it's first run...you'll have to name it

140something  - it was its first run over fences after 2 yrs hurdling. I wont name it, but i assume trainer put it in a handicap immediately after its first run, hence obtaining its mark. It didn't run in a handicap next time out btw. If it ever manages to win a handicap off that mark, and its dropped a few pounds after 3 chase runs since, i'll reveal the horses name!

what gaff track did it win at

The novice chase program is a mess. If you have a handicap prospect then the last thing you want to do is take on anything from the top yards - if you finish beaten 10 lengths by an eased down graded class horse then your handicap mark is blown. As most novice chases contain this potential danger then you have small fields. I believe they should split the program into maiden novice chases which are open to all, and a range of races based upon the hurdle mark of the horses going chasing. You would only be allowed to run in three of these and then would have to move into novice handicaps or handicaps.

ha duffy i dont wanna say on here. if you give me your email address i will email it to you - as long as you promise not to put it on here!! I know some people associated with it, and do not want to disclose publicly but will email it to you.. it was a southern track..

That would put the cat amongst the pigeons BD! I've not thought about it long and hard, but its in the back of my mind that the problem we are talking about is aggravated by power in jumping being less widely dispersed and more concentratd in fewer, all-powerful yards. Not sure. Anyway, night all.

night r carver. your knowlegable views are much appreciated

RDS - its 4/11 you really mean rambling and incoherent! [;)]

nope absolutely not. knowledgable, informed, opinionated, honest and probably slightly tired so adios

I have to disagree with Bobby, this is a golden era of chasers. The reason the times comparison fails here is due to the new use of tactical speed. Best explained by using kauto as an example, the overall time a race is run in depends on the pace set by another horse.

Kauto's brilliance is how he travels so well through a race and has enough stamina to use his speed to pull away at the end. The reason we saw such a good performance in the king george is because of the pace set by nacarat allowed kauto to show the true depth of his superiority over the opposition. A flawless exhibition of jumping, cruising speed and stamina.

For this reason comparing times and distance of victory to gauge a houses talent fails, and hence the official ratings fail. That is why I put no stock in the ratings system.

Though I do agree with the sentiment kauto's consistency is his greatest talent. How a horse can so consistently be on song for race after race, at different tracks, different distances, coherent going, left handed or right handed. Such a durable, consistent and versatile horse.

17 grade 1 chases, 13 wins, 1 second and 3 falls.

* coherent going= different going,

error caused swype on my galaxy s smartphone.

The other thing is that race distances (and therefore times) are more consistent these days.

Back in the good old days it would be '3 miles and about 1 furlong' etc, giving plenty of leeway for the Clerks of Courses to mess around with race distances.

They still have the same cavalier approach to race times and distances at Punchestown.

Hi Roger, I know a few officials in the BHA who would disagree entirely - the current attention to distances is negligible, and they think it needs urgent attention.

Hi CV - I have the first and second lap times for the last 30 Gold Cups, again they are remarkably consistent. I was an exponent of the fact that tactical speed impacted on time, but having spent several years trying to prove it concluded that it wasn't.

Take you example of Kauto - his three KG wins on good to soft were run in 6m 6s - 2006 / 6m 9s 2007 / 6m 7s 2010. His fastest time was on Gd / GS in 2008 when he clocked 5m 57s. Remarkably the going stick which I totally disregarded when introduced would tell us the ground in 2006 and 2007 was comparable, but faster in 2009. I say remarkably because that would fit with my visual impression having been there on all three days.

So how did Nacarat influence the result ?

I believe the answer is physical, the graded races throw together the best physical specimens capable of the best performances of that era. The issue for the horse is always how to maintian airflow, because the process of diffusing oxygen through the lungs into the bloodstream is vital to releasing energy in the muscles. When the horse reaches the limit of its capability to fuel the muscles it starts to tire and fade. Therefore what Nacarat acheived by going to fasr was taking those who laid up with the pace to the maximum of their capability at an earlier stage of the race with the result that they began to struggle a long way from home.

Kauto has a far superior ability in terms of his physical ability to maintain the fuel supply, and therfore was easily able to take advantage of the situation. Hence what you saw was a wider winning distance than would have been the case if the rest of the horses had run at a pace they were capable of sustaining. Therefore the impact of pace is only relevant to those horses who cannot maintain the required fuel supply, and not to the winner who was always superior.

To this extent the result was exaggerated - and for my money his performance against Our Vic and Exotic Dancer was his best KG run.

Interesting point CVB - not sure the King George was run to suit Barbers or Nacarat tho, so it exaggerated KS superiority (tho his massive superiority is not in Q) tho i agree the way it was run did suit KS because he had the class to travel and stay.

bobby dazzler are kautos king georges not phenominal performances?

if yopu think not its far more moronic than any comment ive ever made on here

I totally agree the winning distance was exaggerated and hence the rating is incorrect and furthers my opinion that using this old rating system is fundamentally flawed. I also believe that awarding IC a 185 on the back of defeating Denman by 7 lengths is wrong. On that basis Denman ran within 4lbs of his career best that day, which given his two other runs this year is certainly wife of the mark.

I think the rating and handicap system is outdated and ineffectual. A simple analysis of the average sp of all handicap winners can point to this.

It also raises the question of how good a horse really is and if a high rating awarded to a horse giving weight and a beating to inferior rivals is the same as a horse wining a grade 1 chase.

Take a grade 1 chase with a horse with tactical speed. Ideally the jockey wants to have the horse positioned close up to the leader before the last or second last and to deliver a finishing kick to win the race. The rating the horse is assigned for this win is based of the distance he won by. The margin of victory is determined by the point at which the finishing kick was delivered by the jockey. If a jockey made the run for home say at 4 out he may well run the risk of the horse tiring before the line or he may win by a larger margin. So since the main goal is to win the race trying to put up a high rating would be counter productive on that front.

It is telling that in the 2009 gold cup ruby said his plan was to follow neptune collonges over the second last but kauto "took him there" after the 4th last amd only denman could live with him. The rating  and performance that day was only a result of the horse making the decision and not the jockey. A similar thing happened at kempton last year, the race happened and ruby was required to do nothing but shake the reins after the 2nd last.

It begs the question, exactly how good is a horse who does not run in handicaps? So how good was best mate?

dont think theres anything exaggerated about it just that hes unstoppable at kempton . they all ran there races bar imperial

*wife = wide,

smartphone again, it ain't so smart is it?

Bobby Dazzler Joined: 04 Feb 03
Replies: 191 01 Oct 10 13:31   


Hi Roger, I know a few officials in the BHA who would disagree entirely - the current attention to distances is negligible, and they think it needs urgent attention.

Intersting stuff BD

I made my comment off the back of compiling my own speed ratings for over ten years (I ed to have that thing they all rabbit on about. What is it? Oh yes 'a life' I think it's called)and in general there are less 'what the hell time is that' moments for courses in more recent years than there were back in the day.

However, there are courses where the official race times are always pretty much fictitious, with Punchestown being the worst of the lot.

Hi Cv - It is all about opinions and we simply differ here. As i stated I spent years studying the issue of tactical speed - eventually I arrived at the point where I started to ask why if this is an issue why are all of the times in the top grade 1s so closely matched, and even more significantly remain so when split into races run on comparative going. And why is this especially true at Cheltenham ?

I have never owned a horse with a finishing kick over a jumps distance - and I don't believe I ever will. Horses never operate within a comfort zone when galloping, there metabolism is working at maximum capacity to maintain the movement required. A champion racehorse is a delicate piece of machinery - he has a respiratory system capable of introducing oxygen to the lungs at a rapid rate, a set of lungs able to diffuse that oxygen to blood stream and a heart able to pump the blood around his body at a rate sufficient to allow the oxygen to transfer to the muscles and fuel the movement required to maintain his pace. In reverse he has to have a system capable of taking the waste carbon dioxide into the blood stream from the muscles, diffusing back through the membrane into the lungs and expelling it. When he is galloping he is breathing in time to his stride, so he is performing this process two and a half times a second.

The superior horse is able to maintain this process for a longer period, hence a further distance. Ultimately the limits on performance are physical, as in graded races horses are always giving maximum effort and operating to the limit of their abilities the results you get are remarkably consistent. That appears to be true regardless of the early or late speed, as a horse giving its all is doing simply that and the horse with the greater physical capability will succeed. 

At Cheltenham all horses will be pushed to the limit of their capability, the nature of the course and the intensity of the competition guarantees this - hence the reason I believe that in the GC the horses can always be split into three groups, those who have proved they can reach the standard required to win a gold cup, those who have proved the cannot, and those whose ability has still to be established.

Roger - Lingfield was always my nightmare

Another Long Run thread goes off topic!

Can't understand this fellas price for the Ryanair. Recent entries have been made up of has-beens, slow 2 milers or up-and-comings who arent ready to win over 3 miles. It may have been recently upgraded but it dont look like a grade one to me yet. Win, lose or fall in the preps, why would he go Feltham-RSA-KG-Ryanair?
With natural improvement this season he looks like a lively gold cup outsider. Has already shown maturity for a young horse. If they want to save him a bit (and especially if its wet in march) then the champion chase looks far too winable to be thinking about the Ryanair. imo.

Was it the triumph hurdle ran at a stupidly fast pace... and yet because of that it was a slow time. Why do people think fast early pace mean fast times :S ?

The Paddy Power is Long Runs first major target and Whaley Cohen rides already

ttt

Sorry chaps.  I took this to the top, before I read it, in the belief that it was a Long Run thread.