Festival antepost investments to avoid

i wouldnt call merdemit one paced.. a la supreme 2nd... but i like your thinking... WALKON, RONALDO DES MOTTES?

When I say 'wasnt necessarily exceptional over hurdles' I mean he doesnt need to be top class. The race is ultimately about cruising then kicking, prospective Queen Mother horses being able to travel off a quick pace then going hell for leather when the taps are turned. Celestial Halo and Medermit dont strike me as being this type of horse albeit being Champion Hurdle class over hurdles.

Still most of us would love to have a 140+ rated hurdler lining up in the Arkle. As it goes, the highest rated Arkle winning hurdler of recent years was MWDS, who had previously won a stayers. I think class and stamina are both important, outright blinding speed less so. Am not CHs biggest fan by any means, but if he takes to jumping he has the right profile. My own hope is that MDH is aimed at the race.

Is that after the Champion Hurdle converts dropped out?

Next the Gold Cup ... unless there are key fallers (a stronbg possibilty with Kauto on yielding ground or good ground with a strong pace taking him out of cruise control) we can rule out Denman. Loves the course but the young ones will be too good otherwise.
Kauto again is levels with the up and comings but only on good fast ground. Anything less he will struggle at this 3m+ staying trip where he has a mixed record. Poor bunch he might do it.

Gr4eat reasoning ... just what we expect from the average IQ/experience on here.

Luv it Big Fella. My Way De Solzen does not cover the history of racing how about Baracouda? P1sses over MWDS over hurdles to be fair gave up on him over fences.. different game altogether we are starting afresh .. let your pocket learn that if you want. Incidentally MWDS hardly turned out to be a fantastic Queen Mother horse .. average.

WTF has the Queen Mother got to do with it you lunatic, you where quoting the Arkle and guess what he won it and won it well

eric_morris Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 233 22 Sep 10 21:18   
Luv it Big Fella. My Way De Solzen does not cover the history of racing how about Baracouda? P1sses over MWDS over hurdles to be fair gave up on him over fences.. different game altogether we are starting afresh .. let your pocket learn that if you want. Incidentally MWDS hardly turned out to be a fantastic Queen Mother horse .. average.


don't worry i will, i won a hell of a lot when Forpady won the Arkle

Incidentally I thought before the race last years Arkle was average .... I still do. The winner doesnt excite me at all and Somersby well bit one paced to be a Champion always was ... no ?

lol ... good luck lad.

and even moreso if you are moving from hurdles ;)

Luck shouldnt come into it if judgement is right on average.

SatelliteFlight     22 Sep 10 21:08 
some sh|te being wrote on this thread imo


Agreed, eric_morris is this years biodiesel. Total clueless muppet that won't shut up.

I am pretty sure that Nick Mordin wrote before this years Arkle the the top-rated hurdler in the Arkle is nearly always the winner of the race. Good horses win good races.

Yes quite agree this thread is one of those you can't ignore but can have a good whinge about at the same time. Win win really.

Anyway next, Queen Mother ... Masterminded not the horse he was likely to fall into the Denman category. Too many problems however Denman proved a rare exception on that score can't see his stablemate doing the same.

eric_morris: you wrote this in your initial post:-
"You are looking for a young horse who wasnt necessarily exceptional over hurdles but who has a flair for fencing. In that respect it is always worth taking a look at your horse over the larger obstacles before moving in for a position. Look for a good turn of pace mainly as when they kick 2 out it doesnt matter what they did over hurdles without this kick they are left dead in the water in an Arkle..."

It is near impossible to have an intelligent debate on what could be a worthwhile subject if you, the thread originator, choose to conveniently overlook what you have yourself written.

It is not a pointless fact, as the results of the Arkle have shown that more often than not, the best hurdler (ie. the one with the highest official rating over hurdles, not your own personal opinion) that lines up in the field on the day, is the horse that wins the Arkle.

I usually wait until the day after the PJ Moriarty chase in Ireland in February before having a wager on the Arkle, as by then we know which horses can jump a fence, which ones can't, and which ones that will run in the race - and by looking at those, which had the best ability over hurdles (when hurdling). As such, we have a good idea of which horse will win the race.

You headlined the thread "Festival antepost investments to avoid" and not "Money to throw away on daft antepost wagers before Xmas".

However, given that this is ante-post betting and the likelihood of a horse falling by the wayside is priced in, then I don't see how you can possibly suggest that backing a horse like CH, whose stated aim is the Arkle, is a bad investment. If it all goes to plan he'll go off under 3s.
Which were the highest rated hurdlers, aimed (with certainty of intention) at the Arkle, to have fallen by the wayside in recent years? Can't think of any off the top of my head, rather like you couldn't think of too many hurdlers rated under 140 to have won it.

I don't read CVBs posts he follows me around.

Desmond maybe if you want to make a book he could be a bet to lay off after beating camels at Plumpton first time out. If you held it until the race you might not be so lucky with the margins if he makes the race. When I say poor investment I am holding the bet until the race and won't have backed the winner with him so I would need to get the winner in it making my book less efficient than if I had only backed the winner. Stake to profit ratio would be reduced.

eric: I'm not trying to be argumentative, but what is the point in making a crystal-ball analysis of the Arkle in September - 6 months before the race? When so many things can go wrong in the period in-between, why bother locking-up useful money in the antepost market? For instance, Tidal Bay was head and shoulders above the rest when he won the race, and I got 9/1 on the day. Forpady had clearly the best form and was also the top-rated hurdler when he won at 9/1. Even last March, such was the head-in-the-sand attitude by the majority who spout their shrewd intelligence on here over the (supposed lack of) ability of Sizing Europe, that I got 10/1 in-running at the top of the hill when the horse was cantering on the bit. I went into that race not having had a bet, but could not believe those odds after the race started.

By all means have an antepost bet if you want to, but keep your mind open to winning opportunities.