Cheltenham Festival
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11 Sep 10
20:36
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30 Mar 08
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Gold Cup I hope - I'm all over him!
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Good luck!
I hope he somehow ends up in the QM. Or at least the option is kept open as long as possible |
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Couldnt have it with Waley Cohen on board....get BJG on top.
Top class jock in the Championshiop races required. |
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ryanair if he was mine.
doesnt carry the same prestige as the queen mother or gold cup,he travelled so well in the rsa last year that he carried sam into the race before he should have been but the few early mistakes seemed to take it out of him on the run in,wouldnt get away with touching a twig in the queen mother and would struggle in the gold cup with the extra 2f. may well come back this season much improved with some extra schooling and a proper year of chasing in england/ireland might make me change my mind and lean towards the gold cup but on last years performance the ryanair looks to be the race for him at this early stage. all that said i do fancy him to run a huge race in the king george as kempton did seem to suit him on his 1st start in england. |
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Best chance of a big win is the King George but can see the jockey struggling to get him jumping tidily.
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BJG won't be riding it unless SWC gets injured somehow.
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 I like your thinking ^ |
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I noticed Paul Nichols thought he was
RYANAIR hoss He may take evading action with his own stable hosses  |
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Is Waley-Cohen as good as Geraghty?
Of course not but he's not Jacques Ricou for goodness sake! I think Henderson (and Waley-Cohen snr) see the jock as the only barrier between victory in a Championship race (hopefully Gold Cup [:D])or losing, then they are both seasoned enough professionals to make the call. W-C won the Feltham in fine style with him and I think if he replicates that in the King George this time around, he'll be value even against a year-older Kauto Star. |
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He beat nothing in the Feltham albeit the time was decent...Tazbar/Tchios Polos about best opposition.
Dont think Henderson has much say...its the owners son and if he wants him up then thats the call...if Henderson had the choice then theres no way SWC would be on such a horse in Championship races. |
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Dodgy jockey won't get near Kauto in KG.
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i was interested to notice nichools comments that long run would be a 2.4m horse..
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nicholls? it wasnt long ago he was ssaying long run was the successor to kauto star?
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Seems to recover amazingly well from his many blunders.
No idea what he does next few months but assume he goes for KG and then possibly a 2 miler in February again - last year henderson didn't want to give him a longer slog before cheltenham. They also left him in the arkle and i think said they would run in the arkle if it was soft or heavy (or maybe just if it was heavy cant remember). The ryanair still seems more like a loser race to me than a grade 1 and I can't see him running so badly before next march that they dont run him in a championship race. So my random guess is GC evens to run if he jumps a bit better this year QM 3/1 to run if he improves his jumping and its a wet march Ryanair 5/1 to run if he jumps better but keeps getting beat None of above 9/1 Wouldnt mind hearing some other less random guesses though. |
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Pleasegivemeanailedontip
That's pretty much the way I read things. I remember an interview with Sam Waley-Cohen on the Morning Line at Cheltenham last year when he said this horse was bought to win a Gold Cup (or something similar). I seem to remember him also saying that if the jockey became an issue then his dad and Nicky Henderson would make the professional (in every sense of the word) call. I also think Henderson has never really had a decent shot at the Gold Cup and this would be it. Finally, at the Lambourn Open Day, the word around the yeard was this was the best animal they've had in training and last year's performances came off the back of a hard French campaign and this season would be better, given a through off season rest. Given all that, the notion that he will go to Kempton for the King George, where he has won previously, then if he runs well at Christmas he would be a virtual certainty to go for the Gold Cup. Lots of ifs and buts but that's why I'm on, even as a back to lay proposition for the Gold Cup |
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Id love to back this one this year but I cant get the shocking ride he was given in the RSA out of my head. For that reason I cant really punt him unless he gets a new jock which seems unlikly.
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I think he will start in the Paddy Power! Not quite sure why but just got it in my head that he will end up starting the season in that.
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Henderson does say the Paddy Power is likely to be 1st target.
Think he is rated 158 and with Poquelin due to run off 164 wont have top weight |
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Long Run will be thrown in off 158 - I had him down as a 170+ horse BEFORE he came to Britain, the horse will bolt up at Cheltenham providing he jumps round.
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Anyone know the plans for Punchestowns? I thought he would be interesting in the Paddy Power off 158.
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ryanwe-will use graduation and intermediate chases to give him some more experience
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Ah really. Cheers mate.
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The Graduation Chase at Sandown 3m usually 1st Friday of December I'd fancy might be targeted...won it with Barbers Shop previously.
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If Long Run runs off 158 surely only the fences could beat him?
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Still a tough old race 1st time up with amateur on board Toon....something might get in near bottom with lower weights with Poquelin of top weight.
He's not overly experienced over British fences. |
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Agree 3132 I'm not particularly the horse or jockeys biggest fan but I do know he is a lot better than a 158 horse.
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He may well be but he wont be the only horse that will be well in at the weights and I feel the winner will come from the Pipe camp.
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will it be a grey?
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That my number 1 choice mate. I know we were both big on him before the festival but sadly I didnt back him as I was sure his jumping would hold out against seasoned runners. I was wrong and I wont miss making money on him again. His mark is so good I seriously expect him to win the PP and go on to the Hennessey like Celestial Gold. Hes also got ex hobbs and nicholls runners who could be interesting if he works his magic.
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i bored someone silly about him for months b4 chelt.in fact when i was at ncle fighting5th,i was screaming him home on the tv as he struggled at towcester..was all over him for rsa,from oct onwards and guess what???
as he strolled home at chelt,my mobile was going mad,especially from my missus who id convinced this horse was laid out for chelt....we were right ,and i didnt have a penny on! i cut my nose off to spite my face ,and didnt back him. taught myself an expensive lesson there ps,the missus still thinks im holding about 6k back,cant believe id worked so hard and didnt follow it thru in a different race,ive never sounded so daft.live n learn eh? |
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Im the same mate aprt from the missus part lol.
I had him down as a Jewson horse and even though he ran in a race over same c&d of the same mark I didnt have a penny on. For what its worth Ive got him in the Gold Cup market I feel there could be that much progression in him. Have you got the new Mark Howard book yet? I was wondering if Pipehad confirmed the PP will be his first port of call? |
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i havent.im picking it up from wetherbys on wed morn.
il post whatever it says then. |
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Im waiting on mine in the post. I'll give you a shout on here tomo if it arrives. Catch you later
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^ If you're talking about who I think you're talking about Pipe says in OJA "I would think he would be given an entry in PP Gold Cup"
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Cheers Q ;)
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exactly
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I get the feeling he thinks 3m will be trip what price PP and Hennessey double.
Got book today great read again :) |
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I hope this is an ex-French horse Quvega/Abbott?
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No mate cant think of that one? Were talking about last years Festival winner.
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