Long Run

Gold Cup I hope - I'm all over him!

Good luck!

I hope he somehow ends up in the QM.
Or at least the option is kept open as long as possible

Couldnt have it with Waley Cohen on board....get BJG on top.

Top class jock in the Championshiop races required.

ryanair if he was mine.
doesnt carry the same prestige as the queen mother or gold cup,he travelled so well in the rsa last year that he carried sam into the race before he should have been but the few early mistakes seemed to take it out of him on the run in,wouldnt get away with touching a twig in the queen mother and would struggle in the gold cup with the extra 2f.
may well come back this season much improved with some extra schooling and a proper year of chasing in england/ireland might make me change my mind and lean towards the gold cup but on last years performance the ryanair looks to be the race for him at this early stage.
all that said i do fancy him to run a huge race in the king george as kempton did seem to suit him on his 1st start in england.

Best chance of a big win is the King George but can see the jockey struggling to get him jumping tidily.

BJG won't be riding it unless SWC gets injured somehow.

I like your thinking ^

I noticed Paul Nichols thought he was
RYANAIR hoss

He may take evading action with his own stable hosses

Is Waley-Cohen as good as Geraghty?

Of course not but he's not Jacques Ricou for goodness sake! I think Henderson (and Waley-Cohen snr) see the jock as the only barrier between victory in a Championship race (hopefully Gold Cup [:D])or losing, then they are both seasoned enough professionals to make the call.

W-C won the Feltham in fine style with him and I think if he replicates that in the King George this time around, he'll be value even against a year-older Kauto Star.

He beat nothing in the Feltham albeit the time was decent...Tazbar/Tchios Polos about best opposition.

Dont think Henderson has much say...its the owners son and if he wants him up then thats the call...if Henderson had the choice then theres no way SWC would be on such a horse in Championship races.

Dodgy jockey won't get near Kauto in KG.

i was interested to notice nichools comments that long run would be a 2.4m horse..

nicholls? it wasnt long ago he was ssaying long run was the successor to kauto star?

Seems to recover amazingly well from his many blunders.

No idea what he does next few months but assume he goes for KG and then possibly a 2 miler in February again - last year henderson didn't want to give him a longer slog before cheltenham. They also left him in the arkle and i think said they would run in the arkle if it was soft or heavy (or maybe just if it was heavy cant remember). The ryanair still seems more like a loser race to me than a grade 1 and I can't see him running so badly before next march that they dont run him in a championship race.

So my random guess is
GC  evens to run if he jumps a bit better this year
QM  3/1 to run if he improves his jumping and its a wet march
Ryanair 5/1 to run if he jumps better but keeps getting beat
None of above 9/1

Wouldnt mind hearing some other less random guesses though.

Pleasegivemeanailedontip

That's pretty much the way I read things.

I remember an interview with Sam Waley-Cohen on the Morning Line at Cheltenham last year when he said this horse was bought to win a Gold Cup (or something similar). I seem to remember him also saying that if the jockey became an issue then his dad and Nicky Henderson would make the professional (in every sense of the word) call.

I also think Henderson has never really had a decent shot at the Gold Cup and this would be it. Finally, at the Lambourn Open Day, the word around the yeard was this was the best animal they've had in training and last year's performances came off the back of a hard French campaign and this season would be better, given a through off season rest.

Given all that, the notion that he will go to Kempton for the King George, where he has won previously, then if he runs well at Christmas he would be a virtual certainty to go for the Gold Cup.

Lots of ifs and buts but that's why I'm on, even as a back to lay proposition for the Gold Cup

Id love to back this one this year but I cant get the shocking ride he was given in the RSA out of my head. For that reason I cant really punt him unless he gets a new jock which seems unlikly.

I think he will start in the Paddy Power! Not quite sure why but just got it in my head that he will end up starting the season in that.

Henderson does say the Paddy Power is likely to be 1st target.
Think he is rated 158 and with Poquelin due to run off 164 wont have top weight

Long Run will be thrown in off 158 - I had him down as a 170+ horse BEFORE he came to Britain, the horse will bolt up at Cheltenham providing he jumps round.

Anyone know the plans for Punchestowns? I thought he would be interesting in the Paddy Power off 158.

ryanwe-will use graduation and intermediate chases to give him some more experience

Ah really. Cheers mate.

The Graduation Chase at Sandown 3m usually 1st Friday of December I'd fancy might be targeted...won it with Barbers Shop previously.

If Long Run runs off 158 surely only the fences could beat him?

Still a tough old race 1st time up with amateur on board Toon....something might get in near bottom with lower weights with Poquelin of top weight.

He's not overly experienced over British fences.

Agree 3132 I'm not particularly the horse or jockeys biggest fan but I do know he is a lot better than a 158 horse.

He may well be but he wont be the only horse that will be well in at the weights and I feel the winner will come from the Pipe camp.

will it be a grey?

That my number 1 choice mate. I know we were both big on him before the festival but sadly I didnt back him as I was sure his jumping would hold out against seasoned runners. I was wrong and I wont miss making money on him again. His mark is so good I seriously expect him to win the PP and go on to the Hennessey like Celestial Gold. Hes also got ex hobbs and nicholls runners who could be interesting if he works his magic.

i bored someone silly about him for months b4 chelt.in fact when i was at ncle fighting5th,i was screaming him home on the tv as he struggled at towcester..was all over him for rsa,from oct onwards and guess what???
as he strolled home at chelt,my mobile was going mad,especially from my missus who id convinced this horse was laid out for chelt....we were right ,and i didnt have a penny on!
i cut my nose off to spite my face ,and didnt back him.
taught myself an expensive lesson there
ps,the missus still thinks im holding about 6k back,cant believe id worked so hard and didnt follow it thru in a different race,ive never sounded so daft.live n learn eh?

Im the same mate aprt from the missus part lol.
I had him down as a Jewson horse and even though he ran in a race over same c&d of the same mark I didnt have a penny on. For what its worth Ive got him in the Gold Cup market I feel there could be that much progression in him. Have you got the new Mark Howard book yet? I was wondering if Pipehad confirmed the PP will be his first port of call?

i havent.im picking it up from wetherbys on wed morn.
il post whatever it says then.

Im waiting on mine in the post. I'll give you a shout on here tomo if it arrives. Catch you later

^ If you're talking about who I think you're talking about Pipe says in OJA "I would think he would be given an entry in PP Gold Cup"

Cheers Q ;)

exactly

I get the feeling he thinks 3m will be trip what price PP and Hennessey double.

Got book today great read again :)

I hope this is an ex-French horse Quvega/Abbott?

No mate cant think of that one? Were talking about last years Festival winner.

Have to say I overlooked him completely last year. I think you're slightly mad if you think he'll progress to a Gold Cup horse Abbott. That'll be from 142 up to at least 175 last 3 winners were 182,186,185. I agree he's well in for PP though and clearly has course form.

Think Princesse means Grands Crus

Princesse means SF [smiley:crazy]

Had forgotten all about your one though Abbott - plenty of potential plots from the yard.

flat track bully who has no chance of getting up the hill at cheltenham at any trip. over rated

and also fiddles about too much at his fences. very much like big bucks jumped ences . stick him over hurdles and let big bucks laugh at him

CV, why's that an unreasonable step-up? Remember Long Run is only 5 years old. He has a long road ahead of him. He's already rated 161 now. Completely within his reach to improve an extra 15lbs over time. Yes his jumping isn't the greatest but that can only improve. Already finished third in an RSA getting only a pound from the older horses. He probably got to the front too soon, he seemed to pull the jockey there. Not saying he would have beaten WA because he wouldn't have, but that's still a fine effort for a 5yo.

y can his jumping only improve? could easily get worse

I highly doubt that. Love how you think he should go over hurdles though.

The only barrier to great success is the man on top.  He's already a Grade 1 winner over both Hurdles and Fences

Wicketd I'm not talking about Long Run. I was talking about the horse abbott and ftm were on about.

Long Run is young and has plenty of talent and time to progress to a Gold Cup horse.

Oh. Apologies.

Amongst the big boys now his jumping is unlikely to be up to scratch unless he has had intensive schooling over UK fences. The jockey isnt as cool as the top jocks and doesnt have the confidence to put the horse right. Will impress against a bunch of camels without his jumping put under pressure early doors seeing his price shorten for everything under the sun. Against top class horses will be exposed over staying trips.

I have a feeling that the Jewson form may prevail over the Byrne Plate form - the Plate was run in a decent time (4 seconds quicker than the Jewson), but the winner of the Jewson lugged a stone more. There will be 5lbs between the winners in they both turn up in the PP - I think the Hobbs horse will be a huge price.

Possibly Bobby but there is more progression in the Pipe horse than Hobbs one me thinks.

Not sure about that CV, the third horse from the same yard was beaten just over 3 lengths in the Byrne giving 2lbs, the Jewson winner is regarded to be much better than that - and I anticpate it will be big value compared to the Pipe horse which will be supported from all quarters.

how has this turned into a pipe thread y not start a new 1? BACK ON TOPIC I think Long Run will cruise the King George IF the right man is on board.

CV im not saying he is acert or anything like that but if I can get +500 on a horse that I think will turn up on the day then Ill be happy with that.
Celestial Gold was a similar type who won the PP of 136 then the Hennessey of 142. He started 9/2 for that seasons gold cup(admitidly finishing nowhere)
I personally think that a win in both the above mentioned races would mertit a place in the gold cup come march.

What are we discussing? Long Run, Dawn Run, Run For Free, Free Willy or a Willy Bashing contest about who can be most smug about some unnamed David Pipe horses?

lol

I see what you mean abbott, betting that he'll be in the race not that he'll progress enough to win it. Anyway best let this get back on topic.

y is long run going over hurdles such a bad idea. jumps fences like big bucks did. wouldnt stay over 3 miles at cheltenham

He's only 5yo, give him a chance to progress. He's got a poor jockey on board which isn't helping him. Kauto had jumping problems in his early days and he overcame them to win a few races. Give Long Run a bit of time, don't expect the finished article this season.

Much depends on the on going debate between Nicky Henderson and Walley Cohen. No doubt the Wally will be saying Gold Cup while Nicky will be telling him the Ryanair is his race.

The horse has too much speed to be a Gold Cup horse plain and simple. He could possible shake up Kauto Star in the King George but realistically he'd either have to improve 2 stone or Kauto Star would have to get his tail trapped in the starting stalls.

Considering there are no starting stalls that just about sums up his chances of doing that.

Think this is the Long Run thread that's the keeper.

Bound to go off topic at some point though!
Very interested listening to SWC yesterday about the schooling Long runs received and sounded like SWC has had a bit of schooling himself!
Good call roger - are you laying off or staying on?

Roger - How you playing it after yesterday ? I did the KG/GC double and have laid some already. I am concerned that Cheltenham is not his track and also that yesterday looked so good partly due to the Henderson horses being further forward.

Only laid my stake back. Just wondered how others who've backed him are thinking.

To tell you the truth, I could do with some advice.

On the one hand I backed LR specifically for this scenario: runs well in the King George (which I could always see happening, if not him winning). The owners forget the always tenuous idea of him going for anything other than the Gold Cup, his price contracts, I lay off and everything is wonderful.

Except of course I;m a backer by instinct and a pretty liberal one at that. I can stand long losing runs. providing I can have that one day in the sunshine every so often when the 10/1 winner(s) go in and I make it all back and then some (I'm not bragging, just outlining my punting comfort zone and instinct).

So now I'm sitting on a pretty incredible (for me) potential win and naturally I've got greedy!

Help!!

Not sure on how you backed him. I've done the special double so he needs to win the GC for a return. Laid my stake back at 7/1 but could take double and still win a good amount. I am also being too greedy as I do feel that while Kempton is most certainly Long Run's track, Cheltenham does not appear to be. It is a nice dilemna.

If you have him specifically for the Gold Cup and backed him yesterday independently then you can just be easy osy but with no return yet and the hard bit still to do I felt I had to make sure I didn't lose.

could be a multiple winner of the King George,but dont think he will win a Gold Cup.Races are chalk and cheese,he has just won impressively at Kempton amd failed at Cheltenham twice,and the Paddy Power he really was chucked in after that seeing that yesterday.

Yeah Bud, his Paddy Power run is something I've got to justify. Future GC winners win Paddy Powers with their heads in their chest, top weight or not.

His RSA defeat I can live with, coming at the end of a very busy season including several races in France prior to him fetching up at Henderson's.

Looked convincing yesterday and jumped well though had I been a layer, he'd have been a 'till the cows come home' prospect - I thought him ridiculously hyped given his bare form.

So I am still a bit biased.  KS did not turn up; Albertas needs top of the ground, Nacarat is a handicapper. Forpady was amiss. POS 'choked' (and is much over-rated anyway, imo) and The Nightingale went wrong.  Very unreliable form but good luck!

Not that I'm one for handicap marks and pounds per length etc but it'll be interesting to see what the handicapper makes of Long Run in light of yesterday.

Through an (underperforming) Kauto or a more solid Nacarat, Long Run (162 going into the KG) must be rated at least 180 now, which makes him a solid GC contender.


Yet I can't help but feel LR still has it all to prove at Cheltenham.

Long Run just turned 6yo. No matter what he's proven thus far, he is an exceptional horse. Be that just at one track we will surely find out. But being a backer for the RSA and Paddy Power I have some animosity towards the horse.

How can a talented horse like that lose off a 158???

Official ratings have been going out of control in recent years but if that merits a 180 Im giving up on them.

I was never a fan of Best Mate but at his best he was only given a rating of 175, to say that Long Run should be given 180 for beating a 160 rated horse and a horse who didnt perform is mental.

By the way roger Im not saying that your mental just teh current ratings given out.

The RSA run when I'm convinced he was over the top was actually a decent enough run for a 5yo who had been on the go for ages. Took a bump of Weapon's Amenesty at the final turn and only lost 2nd to a good horse in the last stride. Jumped poorly but tanked through the race. That run although beaten is not a real concern.

The Paddy Power run is baffling because if he hadn't run in the Paddy Power he'd be favourite for the Gold Cup I'd reckon.

I thought he was superb yesterday jumped way better by Cohen letting him adjust himself and the Gold Cup will be the acid test to whether it really is Cheltenham that catches him out cos he has every attribute to be a Gold Cup winner.

agree he an exceptional horse bt still needs to prove himself around chel.

im sure i herd on timeform radio he's got a rating of 175 and kauto ran 30lbs below his rating.

His RSA run wasnt bad as his jock didnt know where to have him. One big thing is Cheltenham is an undulating course and more than the horse poss not liking it I feel the jock def doesnt.

I agree abbott, once you have 3 horses one 180+ the horse that beats them has to get a similar rating, hence the system gets inflated.

Did anything other than Long Run, Riverside and Nacarat run any kind of race in the King George? All the rest are giving the excuses.

No Abbott, that's fine - I am 'mental' re handicap marks. I took a 24 l beating of what I thought was a sound yardstick in Nacarat (rated 158)literally.

I agree that handicap ratings and the whole 'pounds per length' method of form evaluation is flawed and not my method of examining a race. Some swear by it though and it was those I was addressing with my thoughts re LR's revised mark.

I'll U-turn out of this cul-de-sac I;ve run down. Don't feel cofortable in this part of town.

Now (you'll have to forgive my general whittling and mother henning over all this, but there's a lot riding on this for me). Will LR stay an extra 2.5 furlongs on an undulating track? And why has Nicky Hendeson never trained a Gold Cup winner or anything approaching one?

To me he just looks like a Kempton lover,and a Cheltenham hater,trying to simplify things.

Not sure about Nicky as hes not really had the amunition whilst Ive been watching racing. Regarding long run I see no reason that he wont stay the extra distance but his jock will need to get him to settle better in the race this year.

Agree with posts regarding doubts on undulating track like cheltenham.I have been disappointed with both his runs there. His wins at autueil confirm he's ok left handed - but while the undulations are not what they are at celtenham the key may simply be his style of jumping.To date he has been jumping with the expectation that he can flick through the top (which he can in the french brush style fences).This must be worse on an undulating track. However his jumping which henderson and team have workedon was far better on saturday and there's no reason why this might solve the issues at cheltenham. He has a hellof an engine and I hae no doubt that the extra 2 1/2 furlung will be in his grasp if his jumping is as it was on saturday. Remember kauto star fell in the queen mother when he was getting used to the new style fences....once ironed out the rest is history.

I posted elsewhere -

He's 6 and he's beaten a horse rated 160 by 12 lengths without being fully extended. Rivseride gave 7lbs and a 10L beating to Golan Way the time before - Golan Way is rated 146 and after receiving that beating he came out and gave 6lb and a 2l beating to Pearlysteps. Pearlysteps is rated 138 and after that beating he has since won a race himself.

Riverside Theatre may or may not be genuine grade 1 material, but he loves Kempton, clearly stayed very well (has always IMo needed a trip), and is only 7 having had only 1 run outside novice company before today. He is not some exposed, ordinary old nag, he is entitled to improve, particularly on his favourite track.

In 4th he beat 158 rated (possible non stayer) Nacarat by 25l - not as far as Kauto beat him last yr; A race fit Nacarat was beaten about 12l by a ring rusty Imperial Commander at Haydock (i'd expect Imperial Commander to dish out a bigger beating when at concert pitch).

I have no idea whther the winner acts round Cheltenham, but he left that form miles behind today (possibly because the track was not cheltenham), and dishing out a 12l beating to Riverside Theatre is at the very least decent form (as the above demonstrates). I dont think this form should be crabbed too much though i would think 180 is at least half a stone too much.

The thing for me is ratings are only relevent if the horse has won a competative handicap of that mark and from memory none of the ones you mention have.

I know what you are saying, but does this mean you would not place a rating against Kauto or Binocular?

I think it depends what you use ratings for exactly, and they do inform my punting, even in conditions races. Arguing about them also makes for great fun!

Not the placing of ratings just the actual useing of them as betting tool
I personally just think that in the last 5 years they have went way overboard and its getting a bit out of control.

Personally I only use Official Ratings as a yardstick against which to base my own unofficial ratings to see how well handicapped a horse is.

For me Long Run has serious chance at Cheltenham has improved clearly is top class and can dominate things for awhile.

Will be a backer and will go nrnb, Horses than win King George that also run in Gold Cup any records out there for me ?