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sageform
03 Jan 21 13:20
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 21,500 | Blogger: sageform's blog
About time we had a fresh start. So for newbies, I post a list of sires in order of flat race wins in GB (not Northern Ireland or the Republic. In 2020 Kodiac was top from Dark Angel and Dubawi. So far after 26 flat races in 2021 we have a 26 way tie! No sire has yet reached 2.
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Report sageform January 3, 2021 3:53 PM GMT
Camacho finally breaks the tie with Drew Breeze providing his second of the year.
Report roadrunner46 January 6, 2021 5:34 AM GMT
started off 2021 in fine style camacho adds winner number 4
Report sageform January 6, 2021 8:20 PM GMT
Camacho and Dubawi set the pace but Kodiac is only one behind.
Report roadrunner46 January 7, 2021 5:45 AM GMT
im still waiting for lope de vega to get his first winner of the season, last year showcasing  had a 20/1 winner on january 1st
Report sageform January 7, 2021 9:36 AM GMT
There is a lot of chance involved at such an early stage! Dubawi hardly had any before June last year but has 4 already. Probably because a lot of well bred horses are still waiting for their first and second runs that would normally have been put away by now.
Report roadrunner46 January 8, 2021 6:30 AM GMT
chance is my favourite variable, kingman got his first winner in the oppenheimer colours, will need a lot more 3yo's for lope de vega this season, considering he only had 36 2yo's
last year, plus an above average crop of 2yo's, theres no way of knowing that will be the case
Report sageform January 8, 2021 8:17 AM GMT
That looked a good maiden to me and Alto Volante had the pedigree to win.
Report roadrunner46 January 10, 2021 6:41 AM GMT
racing post star performer, the favourite was a showcasing and didnt inspire confidence in that field at the price and there was a lope de vega outsider, beaten 15 lengths on
debut, only left the winner in the optimum price range, don't have a betting tank at the moment, hopefully things will be ready for the start of may, lope de vega finally had
his first winner, the drift on the runner up pistoletto who was well backed when the markets opened the day before, meant the F/C paid well, crossed  my mind to post it on here,
ive done tipping threads for years and there is no upside. more enjoyment picking your own winners.
Report roadrunner46 January 11, 2021 5:48 AM GMT
arion pedigrees are not updating their GB tables yet for 2021, maybe they wait until the official start of the flat season, had a good idea for next years start of the season,
list of the top 50 stallions, as each stallion gets his first winner, cross that off the list until there are no more left, impossible to post on a thread too much typing,
lot easier to write a list on paper and do it that way, could be very informative and financially rewarding. will try that next year.
Report roadrunner46 January 14, 2021 5:53 AM GMT
when your evaluating the chances of your selections, something ive been interested in is the % probability, something i haven't incorporated into my betting process yet, BITODDS
conversion table, think it is very important in moving past the price and onto the % probability as an indicator
Report sageform January 17, 2021 12:17 PM GMT
The RP site is fairly accurate but not updated at weekends. Exceed and Excel is now top with 6 wins but he often is in January. His progeny seem well suited to AW surfaces.
Report roadrunner46 January 17, 2021 3:19 PM GMT
arion pedigrees is up and running since 15th january, don't know if the racing post will let readers read the sires of 2021 articles eventually, im curious to read those, will join and pay a subscription later this year, will make things easier for keeping notes on the horses with as fewest words as possible
Report sageform January 25, 2021 7:03 PM GMT
double today takes Dark Angel top from Exceed and Excel and Lope de Vega.
Report sageform January 27, 2021 8:38 PM GMT
Having caught up with 2 days results today the lead is shared by Invincible Spirit and Exceed and Excel on 10 from Dark Angel 9 and Lope De Vega and Sepoy on 7.
Report roadrunner46 February 1, 2021 9:58 AM GMT
OMFG cant  believe  the top 10 table = screen shot
Report roadrunner46 February 1, 2021 10:00 AM GMT
got it 10.07 am
Report sageform February 11, 2021 7:52 PM GMT
The top 3 in the table all produced a winner at Newcastle this evening as did Kodiac. 2021 Leaders as of today:
Invincible Spirit and Exceed and Excel 13
Dark Angel and Dubawi 12
Lethal Force 11
Kodiac 10
Report roadrunner46 February 12, 2021 1:28 AM GMT
thanks for  the update, been lil busy with threapy on my mind
Report sageform February 27, 2021 12:41 PM GMT
Exceed and Excel on 20 GB wins in 2021. Very impressive with today to come.
Report sageform March 4, 2021 6:07 PM GMT
2 more for Mayson today brings him to 16 and equal third place. I didn't see that coming.
Report roadrunner46 March 9, 2021 8:17 AM GMT
thanks for update, interesting table at moment , havent been keeping up with results, good to see man city top of table, even though im
an arsenal fan, klopp was getting bit to big for his boots
Report truehoncho March 9, 2021 12:31 PM GMT
That Stone Soldier looks ok Sageform. He could well pick up a big handicap this year. Mayson's do ok as older horses if they survive their usual hard 2/3yo careers.
Report roadrunner46 March 9, 2021 10:53 PM GMT
let me know if you  have  any cash in hand work, can travel from london, dont need accommodation, getting bored of london with no cash
Report sageform March 24, 2021 2:05 PM GMT
At long last we can look at some 2yos to run on turf in the Brocklesby. Not sure any of the pedigrees impress me though.
Report roadrunner46 March 24, 2021 11:12 PM GMT
ill take a look, no money to bet, hopefully internet still ygoing until wednesday 31st, runsout on 29th
Report potentialmillionaire March 25, 2021 1:53 PM GMT
roadrunner, some of your recent posts have seemed a bit off colour and you seem up against it at times.
I hope I have misread this and all is good tor you or at least are getting the support you need.

Laying off the betting is never a bad thing though, so I am pleased for you in that respect!
Report roadrunner46 March 26, 2021 8:22 AM GMT
YES  go to AA meetings for the violence pub crawls , things getting much better, prefer being on racetrack seeing them in horses in the flesh, still have to learn about confirmation
Report sageform March 26, 2021 9:22 AM GMT
Can't see us back on course before June at the earliest. Although I have stopped going regularly, I might enjoy a sunny afternoon at Salisbury in July or August to see real horses again. Hope all is well for you roadrunner. I only bet to £2-5 stakes for the fun of it and my RTV subscription is about the same as my betting loss for a year. I was spending £1000 a year on Annual memberships so that has been a big saving.
Report roadrunner46 March 27, 2021 7:26 AM GMT
broke s22 is average field on paper , my ones not running, odds are not in the zone, j butler horse only cost a 1000, will hit 1000 IR firstLaugh
Report roadrunner46 April 3, 2021 3:47 PM BST
hope you played a blinder in the broklesbyCool lincoln result was awesome too, love to meet up in magical salisbury, cant promise or make plans yet, be lucky
Report roadrunner46 April 15, 2021 8:05 PM BST
first group win for summerghand today, cost me playing safe putting oxted in 4timer, should done another £2 line, knew the favourite might not vbe fully tuned up, definitely getting back now the bookies open again, south kensighton william hill shop, my first landing zone for  a payout.peter the great was disappointed that wasn't in my bet
Report roadrunner46 April 27, 2021 6:48 AM BST
lope de vega is doing well so far on 28 wins for 2021, jan to end of june had 39 in 2019 and only 26 in 2020, will need to average 10
a month now to hit target 110-115, just catching up, returned around 97 points on the first 104 races at SP prices, superb so far
Report sageform May 2, 2021 7:11 PM BST
Dubawi has now taken the lead in GB flat wins in 2021 on 42. Three clear of Dark Angel and Exceed and Excel with Frankel close behind in fourth.
Report roadrunner46 May 20, 2021 5:30 PM BST
lope de vega has returned 167.55 for 205 runs so far at SP prices , had a quiet spell last 3 weeks, interesting stats as well, theres been 26 winning older horses and only 6 three year old winners, just 1 two year old runner so far, expect the three year olds to catch up soon, talbeyah made a good impression LTO,
steps upto listed class tomorrow, the dam was a listed winner in france so has a nice pedigree, hopefully will give the favourite a run for its money, on paper
looks between those two.
Report roadrunner46 May 20, 2021 6:05 PM BST
10 minutes later 3yo abstinence wins at 33/1 for lope de vega and ralph beckett, only have 10 trainers on my follow list (never changes)  and hes one of them
Report roadrunner46 May 24, 2021 10:29 PM BST
talbeyah was 2/1 at one stage, then drifted before the off, overbet written allover, came down the run-in with legs like a giraffe, maybe the track didn't suit
the horse, not a bad run beaten just over 3 lengths, the winner caught my eye when i done the maths, wasn't betting myself in the race, apologies for not posting my final thoughts, if you check golden horn's progeny  nearly all the top 10 are fillies, anyways a very good weekend for lope de vega with 4 winners
in last 3 days.
Report roadrunner46 May 29, 2021 11:55 PM BST
lope de vega has notched 40 wins for the season so far, first 6 months in 2019 = 39 wins and 2020 = 26 wins, the first dual F/C on monday when ispahan 11/10 favourite romped home by 4 lengths, and had first juvenile winner on debut, unfortunately the number that went through the sales ring in 2019 were down by around 15 & 20, compared to  2018-2020, im not to familiar with the dates, think im right, thats made it difficult reaching my target, we will see, going well so far.
Report roadrunner46 June 4, 2021 8:31 AM BST
red mirage and indigo times from last years thread both won the other night on the same card, whats the chance of that happening, since than they have raced 9 times and won 7 timesWink
Report roadrunner46 June 8, 2021 5:52 PM BST
talbeyah was suited by the track today, the fact it is a slightly up hill finish most of the way makes it quiet a testing course which favours a big galloping horse, its not always easy to judge a horses size unless your at the track, was right about the track LTO
Report roadrunner46 June 11, 2021 9:40 AM BST
frantoio 3yo for lope de vega should of won yesterday, just got unbalanced on the run-in, step that up to 10f should be upto winning a race soon, reason ive mentioned that race, is the following race run over 8f on same card was won easily by piselli molli that was only rated 59, that race was 1.82 faster, looks very good performance time wise
Report roadrunner46 June 11, 2021 1:12 PM BST
put these up for tomorrow  15 x 20p 4 folds - 6 x 20p 5 folds - 1 x 6 fold 80p = £ 5 in total

3.40 bickerstaff 16/1

3.45 temple bruer s/p

8.15 coleys koko s/p

3.25 ensured s/p

2.50 latest generation 7/2

3.20 side shot 13/2
Report roadrunner46 June 12, 2021 8:31 PM BST
not a bad first effort, just the two winners, could easily of got a four fold, one denied a clear run and other one missing the break than racing wide all the way round, on a positive note all six selections placed with seven place market in the pavers foundation race
Report sageform June 15, 2021 5:59 PM BST
Listed winner for Frankel takes him to 54 GB flat wins. Third behind Dubawi and Dark Angel.
Report sageform June 15, 2021 6:28 PM BST
And the last for good measure. Frankel is really getting going this season.
Report roadrunner46 June 18, 2021 12:14 PM BST
lope de vega's first 302 runs has returned 312.60 points at BFSP and 57.60 points profit at BFSP, 3/3 for 2yo's this season, compared 36-4-5 for 2020 2yo's,
has had a quiet royal ascot this week, their was a big gamble on 3yo winner wise judgement 13/2 into 7/2 recently
Report sageform June 18, 2021 12:45 PM BST
3 more for Frankel yesterday so closing on the top 2. Dark Angel still having an exceptional June though with 16 wins in 17 days compared to 14 for Frankel and 11 for Dubawi.
Report roadrunner46 June 18, 2021 1:00 PM BST
im still not convinced kodiac wont swoop into the lead eventually later on through the winter, his amount of winless horses last two seasons has been a lot
Report roadrunner46 June 20, 2021 9:14 PM BST
its all relative, dark angel had 101 GB wins after two seasons / kodiac had 97 GB wins after three seasons / mehmas has 90 GB wins so far in two seasons
Report sageform June 21, 2021 9:34 AM BST
It may be instructive to look at the first 2 crops of a sire to get an idea of their best distances.
Dubawi started with 31 and then 93.
Sea The Stars 8 and 37
Frankel 22 and 46.
This year there may not be that much between the three of them as older stayers race for longer and trainers learn how to handle them. My figures only include GB wins of course.
Report roadrunner46 June 21, 2021 9:23 PM BST
dont look at distances, dont want to put what i do down  for other people to steal my ideas and methods, your right its something haven't got around to looking at in depth, good price FTO winner for mehmas tonight
Report sageform June 25, 2021 1:52 PM BST
Different monthly list from the year one. GB flat wins in June.
Showcasing 18
Mehmas 18
Frankel 17
Dark Angel 16
Dubawi 16
Kodiac 15
Night of Thunder 14
Report roadrunner46 July 8, 2021 7:12 PM BST
was reading last season that mehmas might struggle in his second season as a sireLaugh more evidence today hes going to be challenging the top sprinter stallions, dont think they will be increasing his stallion fee just yet, only a matter of time imo, not been many runners for lope de vega for this month so far, aint doing too bad with 3 winners so far, needs a really good couple of months with 15 + winners
Report sageform July 9, 2021 8:48 AM BST
Three more for Dubawi in the last 2 days moves him back in front (76) of Dark Angel (75) and Frankel (72) with Kodiac (69) keeping pace in fourth. Sea The Stars (59) is now 10 winners behind Kodiac in fifth.
Report sageform July 9, 2021 3:54 PM BST
Frankel only one behind after 2 more group winners today. Light Refrain and Snow Lantern. What a season for what looks certain to be the champion sire.
Report roadrunner46 July 17, 2021 3:48 PM BST
no stopping these mehmas horses, two pattern races and now the super sprint this week, might even break into the top ten leading sires list this year
Report sageform July 21, 2021 1:23 PM BST
And another easy win at Catterick. That is 36 GB wins since June 1 which is the highest by any sire. He is also in my top 10 for the calendar year with 56 wins which is very rare for a second season sire.
Report roadrunner46 July 25, 2021 4:37 PM BST
lope de vega has got 10 wins so far this month, would be great if can get to 15 for month, ive backed more losers than winners i think, missed lot of the winners, too busy using my old version of form reading, still time to  back some of the winners.
Report sageform July 30, 2021 7:51 AM BST
A good week for Dark Angel who is now in a clear lead on 90 from Dubawi on 85 GB wins in 2021. Kodiac up to 84 and Frankel 81. No Nay Never has had an amazing week at Goodwood moving up to 38 but much higher at 7th in the money won standings.
Report truehoncho July 30, 2021 8:56 AM BST
Sageform Dark Angel is super reliable and every year he gets loads of winners and very good horses. I am surprised he hasn't got a decent stallion son yet. I am beginning to think he may struggle in that department now.
Report sageform July 31, 2021 11:03 AM BST
Lethal Force and Gutaifan are doing OK and Markaz is just starting.
Report truehoncho August 3, 2021 9:38 AM BST
I suppose so Sageform and Harry Angel may help his cause next year. He just seems to have been around a long time (just had a quick look and its 14 seasons at stud) with lots of good horses. I thought he may have got one to talk about a bit by now.
Report potentialmillionaire August 3, 2021 9:24 PM BST
Well I suppose if you take a colt retiring at 4 then it is 8 crops of 4yos or above truehonch.

Doesn’t sound as bad perhaps.

Certainly no stars yet for sure and if you are a devotee perhaps you could argue that the first 4 crops didn’t contain many mares that would have helped him out!

I think he will get one or two sire sons as Lethal Force and Gutaifan are prolific winner producers so with the right pedigree background, whatever that is, the odds are in his favour to improve.
Report roadrunner46 August 12, 2021 12:54 PM BST
that 100/1 winning 2yo for lope de vega, knew i was onto something Cool sums up my season so far missing that one
Report roadrunner46 August 12, 2021 2:26 PM BST
as of 11 august 473 runs for lope de vega, 264.25 + at BFSP in profit and its been the 2yo's that have smashed it out of the park 9-5-6 and the 3yo's had another big priced winner 43-17-23.
Report sageform August 13, 2021 12:29 PM BST
Kodiac finally takes the lead. 98 to Dark Angel 97, Frankel 95 and Dubawi 94.
Report sageform August 21, 2021 2:53 PM BST
Dark Angel clear again on 107 from Kodiac 101 and Frankel now on 100 after Sadmah won.
Report roadrunner46 August 24, 2021 9:00 AM BST
wonder if mehmas can get to 100 GB wins this season, that would be amazing and no doubt hes gonna go very close to that total
Report roadrunner46 September 16, 2021 9:13 PM BST
lope de vega is going well this month with 10 winners so far and 15 last month, looking good to hit my target of 110-115 wins for the season, think he will get the necessary wins on the AW
Report sageform September 23, 2021 5:51 PM BST
Australia is the second Epsom Derby winner to sire 50 GB wins this season, well behind Sea The Stars on 96 (which is outstanding for a staying sire). The next best are Golden Horn, 44, Camelot 41, New Approach 31 and Galileo 24.
Dark Angel continues to set the overall pace with 130. Kodiac 123, Dubawi 120 and Frankel 118 are the others ahead of Sea The Stars.
Report sageform September 29, 2021 1:38 PM BST
Cave Diver was the seventh winner for Ulysses this month. He is really impressing me as a sire of staying 2yos after a predictably slow start. The first 2 in the 1.30 at Nottingham could prove very useful.
Report Formtwist September 29, 2021 3:44 PM BST
Yes, to have ten individual winners before the end of September is remarkable considering how late-maturing Ulysses was himself - and his highest rated horse hasn't yet won. Delighted for Cheveley Park Stud.
Report sageform October 11, 2021 2:34 PM BST
Dark Angel is now a clear leader in the GB sire stats. Two already today makes 13 in 11 days of October and 148 for the year.
Report zygote October 15, 2021 7:10 PM BST
I have been very disappointed by Churchill's first crop, as several well-known judges said his foals were particularly striking. Hopefully 2022 will see a breakthrough, as I am a big fan.
Report truehoncho October 15, 2021 7:32 PM BST
I think he has done ok zygote, those 2yos should improve next season. His sales held up terrifically this year as well.
Report gunslinger7 October 15, 2021 7:39 PM BST
I think that is very harsh Zygote. Churchill has performed very well considering they all strike me as big scopey horses. He is 3rd in terms of winners for first season sires. 2nd in terms of stakes winners. Not sure how you could be disappointed to be truthful. As a breeder I’d be delighted looking forward to the likely progress next year as 3yr olds
Report truehoncho October 19, 2021 9:18 AM BST
I think Wootton Bassett is the one they all have to beat over the next 3/4 years. His European 2yo's have done great both quantity and quality. He can only improve where he is standing now and I'll stick my neck out and say he will be champion stallion in 3 years (2024).
Report sageform October 19, 2021 8:50 PM BST
Many of those bought in France today seem headed over to UK and Ireland so you may be right. Until now, most of his progeny have raced in France.
Report sageform October 19, 2021 8:50 PM BST
Many of those bought in France today seem headed over to UK and Ireland so you may be right. Until now, most of his progeny have raced in France.
Report truehoncho October 19, 2021 9:10 PM BST
Yes I saw that. If he repeats his current  performance with his remaining foals in France and gets some of those good mares that G got, he could have a great couple of seasons in a couple of years. That's why I think he could do so well. He's just such a good cross for those G mares as well with Nureyev so close up in his pedigree. I actually thinks he's quite exciting.
Report sageform October 20, 2021 8:23 AM BST
Just had a look at his progeny list and I was surprised to see so many high ratings. He has only had 23 wins in GB this year so that puts him a very long way down my list but he is doing much better abroad so far. I thought they needed soft or heavy but recent evidence suggests that is not the case.
Report roadrunner46 October 23, 2021 1:09 PM BST
as of 23 october lope de vega 695 runs 243.84 points profit at BFSP and 101 wins so far
Report roadrunner46 October 24, 2021 8:30 AM BST
made mistake on yesterdays calculations its actually lope de vega 675 runs and 256.84 points profit at BFSP, would be interesting to know how the other stallions in the top 10 have performed in comparison, would take too much time to do
Report sageform October 24, 2021 12:12 PM BST
Interesting stat. He does seem to get plenty of good priced winners. This season GB turf only, 64 wins from 640 runs. AW in GB only 38 wins from 237 runs so better percentage on AW.
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