Which sire will make the biggest impact with their first runners in 2016?

Thanks, good read.

Its a good year for 1st season stallions. I like Casamento but he will need to be very good to be first season champion sire in 2016. Sepoy will be interesting, many of the new Aussie imports will be hoping he has a good year. Delegator and Foxwedge could struggle to get into double figures. This year winning maidens will be even harder with the new condition race's that are coming.

I can see some of these being good value for next year as they will struggle to shine this year. Winning 2yo races is getting harder with so many excellent established 2yo stallions like kodiac, dark angel etc.

Wouldn't it be great if Doncaster Rover got a hat-full of winners, it would give all us triers a bit of a belief.

I have a hunch that Mayson will surprise a bit. Plenty retained for quality stud and owner breeders, and what sold did better than the rumour mill predicted. I swerved him personally as he wasn't the type in my view to be a sales ring sire, but he may well get speedy and talented runners from early on.

particularly if the rain doesn't stop

Well Harbour Watch has the numbers and the profile to top the table in my opinion.

Also have a soft spot for Elzaam, he doesn't have the numbers but I liked what I saw of them so he could get a good 2yo.

Hope it's Casamento I have increased my stake to 25 % in my Casamento X Angel bright filly and got naming rights I have named her Castle Hill Cassie ( her stables are called castle hill ) she is with Ben Haslem .I am very pleased with how she is going,so is Ben ,can't wait for spring.my Colt by Royal Applause is now a gelding, I have only 10% in him and as yet he is unnamed,he's with Kevin Ryan

Going to see my filly CASTLE HILL CASSIE at Ben Haslems on Saturday the 20 th of Feb,up to now all the stable reports are encouraging I will post next week on what I think

Well I went on the weekend stable visit with my wife fri/ sat with my two sons and their children joining us on Saturday.we went round evening stables at Ben Haslems which is only 200 mets from the hotel.my filly looked amazing and to my untrained eye very forward,the official syndicate visit was onsaturday where the two syndicate horse were paraded .we were well looked after and had a great weekend making many new friends.win lose or draw I will never regret joining in with my two horses,bring on April,can't wait

Doncaster rover your enthusiasm for your project is great and a wonderful advert for the fun to be had in and around our sport.
Now let's hope your charges have a bit of ability and you might be so enthused that next time you might buy one of mine!

I have a 2-y-o Sir Prancealot filly which is very, very precocious. Will be a nice early type though indications are will need fast ground.

Also have a 2-y-o Harbour Watch filly which is very placid by nature. Did her first piece of fast work this week up Malton and she came off the bridle early on before picking up nicely at the 5f mark.

Both could be nice fillies both from first season sires.

Ive a very nice Sir Prancelot as well who should be ready early, also my Born To Sea has shown plenty but slightly worried on temperament and giong the wrong way if over working them, that said they're basing that cos the lads who used to ride BTS said he went that way.

I cannot see Born To Sea getting many two year olds before late on at best Koo so I would imagine winding them up early could bring many risks, physical and mental. If yours has taken after a speedy dam then hopefully you'll be fine.

Should we be piling on Sir Prancelot for the title folks?!

Sir Prancelot has the profile and the numbers so there would be worse bets out there.  As an aside I've spoken to one of the breeze up boys on a couple of occasions and he is a big fan of Requinto and thinks they'll be early.  Also likes Helmet for later on in the year.

Which firms are offering first season sire leader odds?

Posh, did your source really say "later in the year" for Helmet? If he can do that as well he will be a proper sire. As usual, I've not used him.........and Proxygene must be gnashing his teeth at parting with one so cheaply.

Went to see my Casamento filly on Saturday ( Castle hill Cassie )she looked amazing I have 25% of her ,Also 10% of a Royal applause unnamed gelding .on Saturday I bought 10% share in a lope de vega Colt and had a 2.5 % share bought for me as a gift from my son this was in a Sir Prancelot colt named Vaux

Mar 3, 2016 -- 10:55AM, doncaster rover wrote:

Which firms are offering first season sire leader odds?

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/racing-specials/long-term/2016-flat-season/top-first-season-sire-by-wins

Don't know if you've found it yet! If the link doesn't work, its Powers & Race bets

My 2.5% in Vaux got me a 2cnd at Ripon today,at 20/1 my first placing as a owner

Well done DR, soon be a winner.

the breeding game has now become obsessed with producing 6 furlong two year olds.........thats all that seems to matter.......maybe its because coolmore has the middle distance scene sewn up........

It's because that's what people want to buy.

Any horse capable of winning a Guineas at three will win at 6f as a two year old, many top middle distance three-year olds will also have won at 6f as a two-year old if given the chance. So, brain dead jockeys, it doesn't make sense to be disparaging about such races, the horses that win them, or the breeders who breed them. All good or even great horses have to have speed in their armoury whatever the trip they race over.

i prefer 10 furlong and 12 furlong horses to sprinter milers........thats all i kind of meant.......

Vaux will soon be winning.  Moral winner on the night as long as the slow starts are sorted out

Vaux is to be gelded

Foxwedge could have had a double at Yarmouth today if the apprentice jockey hadnt thought'd he'd got the first race won a few yards out.

Ascot will really start to spread the first crop table. Frankel Ascot double!?

Increased my share holding,   Vaux 2.5% Ben Haslem ,Castle Hil Cassie ,Ben.Haslem25% Rey Loopy 10% Ben Haslam, Backinanger 10% Kevin Ryan,Made of Honour 11.25% Cale Buke.All 2/year olds onl Vaux ran up to date,and he needs to improve but we believe he will do.Hopeing for the others to be out soon

I have come late to this thread, but the mighty FRANKEL is certainly making waves, even though he should do even better next year. What a pity that the late great Sir Henry could not enjoy his greatest horse laying down his legacy at stud.

Half term report;

Tipping away nicely
- Elzaam
- Foxwedge

Must try harder
- Sepoy
- Excelebration

Red Jazz
I think his first are 2017.

PBT 27 Feb 16 11:21 Joined: 17 Dec 03 | Topic/replies: 272 | Blogger: PBT's blog
I have a 2-y-o Sir Prancealot filly which is very, very precocious. Will be a nice early type though indications are will need fast ground.

Also have a 2-y-o Harbour Watch filly which is very placid by nature. Did her first piece of fast work this week up Malton and she came off the bridle early on before picking up nicely at the 5f mark.

Both could be nice fillies both from first season sires.

Progress on these two couldn't be further apart:

Sir Prancelot named Yorkshiredebut won very nicely last week up at Musselburgh and we are very, very happy with her ability.

Harbour Watch named Ey Up now playing polo after a tremendously underwhelming stint on the track.

Gives dreams and equally tames lions this game....

Absolutely PBT .

I suppose that your experience fairly accurately represents first season sire standings to date with one performing well and the other not doing anything exciting.
I am pleased you have found out your fate nice and early and you have a nice filly to look forward to.

It might not seem like it but you are currently operating at a 50% nice horse rate. Impressive!

Update on my 5 horses ( shares in )Vaux I have given up hope on,he's never going to win a race,still love to see him though.Backinanger has raced twice and finished last twice,don't know what to say about him.Castle Hill Cassie still hasn't raced but it is hoped to run 21 st Sept .Rey loopy has grown into a big horse and is going to race at Redcar with Cassie.his full brother Seville Star made his debut as a 3 year old in Ireland finishing second then won his next two impressively
Made Of Honour is also like Cassie out of Casamento and has not raced yet.The Casamentos to me have been largely disappointing ,though some do improve a little for there first run

Castle Hill Cassie entered at Redcar 21st Sep Rey Loopy waiting until October,not heard anything from Made Of Honour except she is about ready to get entered for her debut race

Castle Hill Cassie debuts 16/30 today at Redcar,it's been a long 10 months,fingers crossed for a safe pleasing run,G Lee rides

Casamento has been a disaster I'm afraid to say..

Well done DR, you will win a race with her. JM you are right (as if you needed telling!!)

Thanks true honcho,she is going in a filly only race next so may do a little better,but must say I was more than pleased with hat for a first time effort

I don't wish to be unkind to Casamento and better judges than me liked his yearlings, but he was a horse I never quite got excited about. His race record wasn't that great and he didn't really beat anything of note. And by Shamardal out of an Always Fair mare didn't scream 2-y-o sire to me. Maybe he'll do better with his three year olds but I doubt it.

I think they might be better JM. I don't think they will be stars but I do think that he will get good 3/4yo handicappers and probably enough 100+ older horses to keep him going. Not sexy I know but not too terrible.

Well I am happy anyway and I have another Casamento filly who will make her debut very soon she is Made Of Honour with Karl Burke ,let's see how she goes before passing judgement on her

There was a good Casamento colt won a maiden for a Northern trainer at a Northern track last week or the week before, went off fav, its name escapes me. He looked very decent, travelled extremely well.

Frankel looks like the second coming, while his "bridesmaid" in his racing days, Excellebration is in trouble.

Urban Fox admirable win today for Foxwedge on her seventh run of the season.

lots of FSS falling over eachother in the middle of the table.

Wily, the Excellebration's look big and scopey. Ultimate Avenue was a cracking looking colt in the G3 at Newmarket today and didn't look too fit. I think he might improve. I have to agree though, he isn't pulling up any trees. I don't think it's a vintage year and Sir P may go the same way as Sakhee's Secret.

pivotal, 7f-8.5.

This piece analyses the performance of all the first-season sires in 2016:

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/first-season-sire-analysis-britain-and-ireland/

My stats of GB wins in 2016 show Sir Prancealot as clear winner on 37 GB wins plus another 6 in Ireland. He is followed by a group of 4 sires including Frankel on 22. These figures are down on the average for the leading first season sires but better than last year. I can't see the last 2 days of the year making much difference. Sir P's sire Tamayuz had 27 wins in his first season.

No mention of the Coolmore dud, Excelebration.
He had a complete shocker of a first season.
He was the dearest of all the freshmen at 22.5k yet performed with arguably the worst stats.
He couldn't get one of his progeny to reach a Racing Post rating of 100.
By my calculations he has 240 foals and yearlings to come. How is a breeder going to offload them? There might be a bargain there for the speculators in the hope that he might take off in his second season.
Not to mention the mares in foal at this point in time. That will add up to at least 300.
He is down to 10k already so chances are he will be off to Azerbaijan in the near future.

Reflections on my first season as a owner.my first horse Backinanger I had to let go of after owning 10% for 14 months,he got a rating of 60 after finishing last or almost last in his 3 races it was decided to put him away for 6 months and then try and win a hcp then possibly put him through the sales ring,I exercised my right to leave the syndicate once you have been in for 12 months,taking a total loss of approx £7000.Vaux 5% ran about 6 times and finishing second once he was going to be put through the ring but got injured he remains in training and may come back on the all weather before a decision is made on his future,cost to date approx £4000 ,Castle Hill Cassie 30% cost to date approximately £25000.Made Of Honour unraced as yet cost 11.25% plus fees cost approx £7000.Rey Loopy 10% approx £6000 not complaining ( just moaning lol ) I have had some great days out and a couple of weekends away,these shares are between myself and my family and not all purchased in one go a 2.5 % share came up for sale in December for £600 in Castle Hill Cassie and my son snapped it up.we are looking forward to 2017 still eager and hopeful,power but not out well not yet any way.It goes to show that the small man in the street is very lucky to meet even a small part of his outlay .Good job we are not in it to win money and can't wait for 2017 to begin,Yours in sport Doncaster rover

So to summarise you've spent £43k across 5 horses and none of them have won

I hope you will be rewarded in 2017 as that sounds quite unlucky to me.

The very best of luck in 2017 doncaster rover.  You may not have had great success on the track this year, but its priceless watching your horses run I bet?

We'd all love to be winning (really good) races, but sometimes, as someone once famously said 'little fish are sweet too'....and its great to see your enthusiasm for the game has not been dimmed!

My first enlisting chance of a winner is Castle Hill Cassie 13/50 Wolverhampton Monday 27th march also Made Of Honour sat 2cnd April at Doncasterdont think my other horse will ever win a race so soon be having a rethink,also considering a small share in G FORCE,he failed at stud so is back in training

Castle Hill Cassie ran excellent second 13/50 Wolverhampton

Castle Hill Cassie half sister Dandy Man x. Angel Bright is named Seatview Mist and makes her 2/y/o debut at Dundalk on Friday 31st march in the first race, I am told Angel Bright is a very good brood mare,she is by Dark Angel,what sort of rating would Cassie need to achieve before she was considered suitable for breeding with after her racing career is over,as you can tell I know nothing of horse breeding but find it fascinating to trace back my own ( share of ) horses breeding

Castle hill Cassie second at Wolverhampton last week and Made Of Honour second at Doncaster today,William ever get a winner

Fret not DR.  Both your Casamento fillies look sure to win.  He was never a sire that should get 2yos and any he did get are a bonus.  They look sure to better at 3 and when stepped up in distance.

The fact both yours have placed over 7f (when not fancied in the market too) is encouraging, Made of Honour in particular as there's no shame in getting beat 7l by a hot pot with a Derby Entry especially at a good track.

I'd say your turn in the winners enclosure is not far off.  Patience is the key.

Castle Hill Cassie was beaten on debut by Forest Ranger by about 4 lentghs into third Forest ranger has just lagged in a valuable race at Newcastle now going Dante route to a possible tilt at the Derby,exciting times

kincsem
Red Jazz .... I think his first are 2017.
He starts with a 66/1 winner Capla Dancer.

Castle Hill Cassie runs today Catterick 2/55 hoping for a nice run

Cassie finished third

Castle Hill Cassie has been rated 71.Made Of Honour has ran twice both at Doncaster and finished a second and a third think she would be rated around 74 if she could be rated now ,which obviously she cant

Whooo hoooo my first winner as an owner Rey Loopyy,Lags in

Cassie on debut third to Forest Ranger,Made Of Honour second on Debut to Benbatl the ran sixth and second in the Dante

Big congrats on the winner, DR. Patience rewarded!

I see Castle Hill Cassie got her head in front last night.  Congrats DR.  Thrilled for you.

dabirsim making a good start in france

Well done on another winner Doncaster Rover. Good week for you (and Casamento)

she could be worth a go in a big sales race if she keeps going forward, Doncaster. Very best of luck with her.

Well done DR-your patience has paid off!

Well thanks for all the recent nice comments how things have changed in twelve days 3 winners Rey Loopy Newcastle,Castle Hill Cassie and Made Of Honour at Ayr,she was second o the Derby fifth Benbatle on debut ,doesent make her any quicker or more valuable,but what a great talking point when we are at the races

Great story and congratulations on your success.

Congratulation DR-like London busses eh?

Given there are 3 threads at the moment that seem to be talking about 2nd Season Sires in UK/IRE and their perceived success or failure I thought I'd try and bash the numbers and see if I can get close to the truth.

The table is listed in order of % improvement in the winners to runners ratio from their 2yos to present as that was something I was personally interested in.  Still there's loads of other good stuff in there to satisfy whatever barometer of success floats your boat.

The figures are as at lunchtime 13 June and are mainly from the Weatherbys Stallion App - well worth a download.

I couldn't get figures for Foxwedge, So You  Think or Sayif so they don't appear I'm afraid.

It's interesting to see which stallions have pushed on with their first crop of 3yos - Harbour Watch !, Helmet, Excelebration, Casamento, Sir Prancelot & Nathaniel, those that haven't - Power, Dragon Pulse, Elzaam, Bated Breath & Requinto and those that have not done either - Famous Name, Born To Sea & Delegator.

As long as you are over 30% winners to runners then your doing ok - ish in my book. Nathaniel is borderline in this respect but because of the number of Black Type performers and a Classic winner I'll let him off - just, despite the fact his fee was the 2nd highest.

I suppose the talking point is how Harbour Watch has come roaring back after a dismal campaign from his juveniles. 

Of those Stallions that can get 2yos that also train on the clear winner is Sir Prancelot off a fee of just €6,000 with Helmet, Excelebration, Sepoy & Mayson doing well in this regard too.

Now to the F word, he's done well but given the book of mares he had he should have done.  I'm reserving judgement for the time being, although given his fee was so far higher than any of the others, I'm not sure he compares that favourably.

Whether this sort of information has any bearing on fashion is doubtful as buyers seem to operate in the present.  I fear for Elzaam, Power, Dragon Pulse & Requinto in this regard (at least in the short term) as last years excellent results are forgotten - unless they have an offspring that bolts up by 5l in a Newmarket/Curragh 2yo maiden on the eve of a sale.

Anyway enjoy

An interesting debut today for Master of Wine by Maxios in the first (I think) 7 furlong 2yo race of 2017. Maxios is from a staying family and has had only 2 other runners so far.

Small update on my 3 horses,Castle Hill Cassie is on a break as she still hasn't grown fully back around mid August.Rey Loopy runs in the last race at Newcastle this Friday 30/5 /17,gone up 11 lb for his win but I still fancy him and think he must have a outstanding chance .Made Of Honour as many of fellow bloodstock breeders know she was a well beaten second on debut at Doncaster to the Dante 2cnd Derby 5th and now group 3 Royal Ascot winner Benbatle she is also on her summer break and will be coming back fit and fighting in August and will surely win again Of a mark of 78