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Matings 2014 OUTSIDE the Box
Matings 2014 OUTSIDE the Box
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In nerdily looking at sale medians, percentages compared to costs and fee I would say Tamayuz is giving as good a chance of making a profit as any sire out there.
In 2 years will any momentum be drooping, will buyers have moved on to the next great white hope, so he would be of more risk than the usual suspects Kyllachy, Medicean, Dutch Art (if they dont go silly) Royal Applause, Whitsburys etc. (Sir Percy and Mount Nelson might also stack up at a similar stage of their careers) He also doesn't strike me as partic attractive or imposing but he should be at least under consideration |
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Reading this I'd be of the same opinion as Pot M, Tamayuz is far more commercial than Nayef. He does get classy 2y'olds, and fast early ones as well rather than the later miling types of his father. It is not just number of 2y'olds winners but the type of horse they are. As Pot M rightly points out, Nayef wouldn't get you a Sir Prancealot. On that point I was rather surprised to see only one mare catalogued at Newmarket in foal to Sir P,a young 2y'old winning mare by Royal Applause with a nice early covering. If she fulfilled my rather vague
 specification of being a good sort and a good walker then she would not be a bad choice for someone looking to pick up a commercial sort on a budget. I would be fairly sure a nice foal would pay for her purchase and leave enough for some cheese to go on the bread too. Feb foaling means you could follow up with another budget commercial sire, ie Swiss Spirit, and have plenty of chance to profit with that too. Enough winners on her page to suggest they should win as well. Might be worth a look for those of you looking for an angle on a budget. I agree that the foal sales are shaping up to be strong again this year and with some nice stallions having their first foals there could be a bunfight. |
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Well as you'll know Prima, mine'll go cheap.
I'm the best place to go for a bargain!! I think with the Royal Applause mare I might be tempted to go 5th dam on her foals pages. I think there are plenty old enough still out there to be positively reminded of the once terrific Overbury family. A filly might be a bit of a bummer though. |
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Ok for what it's worth I'll have a go at the sires I'm considering for 2014, all are gambles rather than commercial plays.
Fast Company, for the price you are getting the only horse who put it up to new approach as a 2yo, his dewhurst form is unbelievably strong defeating 3 future stallions , by danehill dancer out of a zafronic mare, decent pedigree, decent yearling sales to decent trainers, a lot of positives. His negative for me is his size, he is very big in the flesh ( I thought) not always helpfull for a flat stallion Most Improved, I presume ( maybe naively) he'll be fairly cheap, Good 2yo form for a May foal and a G1 winning 3yo. I like his current pedigree being by Lawman out of a 10 yo Linamix mare who has already produced 2 G1 winners, I don't know how he's on the looks front Le Cadre Noir, very left field suggestion here, but he's a very good looking fast son of Danetime out of an Indian Ridge mare, with a reasonably good pedigree ( a lot better than Bushranger anyway). I'd imagine you'd get him for peanuts this year, his stock haven't been too popular but I see a yearling sold in the latest Goffs sale for 26000, I sent a mare with conformation issues to him and ended up with a cracking foal. His biggest obstacle will be lack of support/numbers Dream Ahead, maybe optimistic here but what price will a third season son of Diktat stand for? If he was gettable for near 4 figures I'd like to have a punt, maybe I should gather my pesetas and just use the old man. |
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Ooh, I enjoyed that Ovalu!
Nice to read a considered short list and it's got me thinking once again. I haven't seen Fast Company, but in the current climate I think he cannot be struck from the list. I am surprised he is big as he doesn't strike me as being so from his photo and not particularly from his Rathasker video either. As I have probably said before, I like a horse that is bigger than it seems or perversely one that appears bigger than it is, if it is small. I think that his fabulous yearling sales probably take care of any such worries, but perhaps prudence would suggest no giants to him also. Most Improved. I think actually that boatyard issues would be of some concern on this one from pedigree but obviously viewing would sort that either way. He wasn't on my radar but of course we would never get anywhere if we were too sweeping with our judgements. If ever a horse trained off he was it. Disaster after disaster post St James' Palace stakes I would love to know why? Can anyone put their finger on it, indeed is it a genuine mystery or just one that is being withheld from public consumption? Fact is though a bunch of good looking 1st croppers and the positives are enough to support them to a pretty good level commercially. No where to hide if they don't look the part though and the 115 lengths between him and the winner on his last 5 starts will suddenly become fresher in the minds of the buyers. Dream Ahead is tricky but of course we are about to get a better idea there in the next month. Le Cadre Noir. Well he is one for every man and their conscience to take a view on! Not for me but I can only glance at his type occasionally because he is over the water so isn't going to happen! |
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Le Cadre Noir? Sacre Bleu, Joot Alors, Non, non, non. NH sire waiting to happen.
What's wrong with Equiano? If his 2yos hit the ground running and his career path follows his sire, he might be cheap at 8k. |
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Dear Lovely Cheveley.
Sure as the sun rises, they can be relied upon to over egg the pudding. Or is it just me? |
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I agree with you PotM (Kyllachy up to 15k, good stallion but did he have a great year on the track?)
On the other hand, Mayson down to 6k. That tells me he must have been really poorly received last year. Is he already a sinking ship in just his 2nd season!? Tells me to avoid mud-loving specialists, the market just doesn't find them sexy. |
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Still room for a profit with Kyllachy and Medicean, Dutch Art now joining Pivotal in touch and go territory.
Bahamian Bounty £8.5, Delegator £4 not so bad. Waiting on Champs Elysees now, oh and the end of turf season and hours of data inputting. |
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Fair play to Newsells in this market. All three of their stallions now seems well priced and at 8k - I've seen lots of nice Equiano's, the best trainers have bought Equianos and I've bred a nice Equiano. One that falls plum in PotM's description of an 'obvious filly' to buy (if only it was a colt).
I'd like to be persuaded about Most Improved but the profile is garbage. Cheveley are in a toffs dreamland where we should be doffing our caps and lucky to get our mares covered. If you want a Dutch Art - buy a foal. I'd be amazed if more than 40% clear that cover fee. Explain to me why Medicean 2013 yearling median is 45k and DA is 47k and one is 3.5x more expensive. Can Shadwell / Derrinstown not find something new (Soft Falling Rain / Mukhadaram)? Coolmore 2yo? Anyone know how low they actually go for Pastoral Pursuits? I heard 3k not so long ago. |
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I couldn't agree more yer ma. I know I probably post too often on here but £35k for DA is nonsensical. How can that be an attractive proposition to any breeder. Iffraaj looks a steal at £25k. By the way you can get the other DA for £35k and if you have the right mare that's a far better proposition.
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And while we're at it. . .
After Pivotal's 1st crop finished their 4 yo season he too took his first fee hike, this time to 25k. He'd managed a champion filly in the U.S, Golden Apples. German Oaks winner Sylvester Lady and champion sprinter Kyllachy, obviously Gp 1 winners the three. How come 3 group 2 winners by the same stage make Dutch Art worth 10 k more? Are times really so different.? It's funny how Ifraaj is looking attractive now! I think our gut reactions are usually right mind you. I think we will have to move fast on the things that look affordable. Certainly if I have a quick lottery win then Dawn Approach is the priciest best shot. |
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Proxygene, Champs Elysees at £5k. What do you think?
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By crickey.
Coolmore fees, like a Tarts drawers. Don't think I've ever seen such a fascinating list!!! |
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Shocked n stunned - never thought I'd be saying Coolmore is where the values at...slight air of stack em high sell em cheap but 12.5k for Pour Moi - where do I sign - and lots at 10k. With the right mare 25k Camelot or 25k Intello....mmmm let me think. Even Choisir, arguably has worlds top miler this year and is still 1/3 of the price of Dutch Art. Pivotal and DD are one and the same for me - 25k (if you're so inclinced) is very fair money, 45k is not.
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Dec of War, High Chap, Rip Van and Mastercraftsman do present another side of the coin though do they not.?
I also feel that Declaration of War has a 'ship him to Ashford for 2015 and we'll have a double year of 1st season premium' look about him. |
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Darley have done well (or got lucky, take your pick) to get together some good stallions over the last couple of years but have to agree with yer ma that the value is at Coolmore. I'm not in the price bracket but DD does seem good value.
We could do with Coolmore over here to get some of these other studs on their toes. Delegator does seem a good opportunity if you are going to sell as a foal. |
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Truehoncho, still dithering about Champs, on one front he would be a good enough choice for both my mares but on the other he's probably not sharp enough for the maiden and I should go more imaginatively with the other. I do like him and might well regret not using him by next year if he does take off. In the meantime I need to analyse more closely his offspring and end of season results, and visit Darley +-Lanwades to check out the just cheap enoughs and the should be cheapers respectively.
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Too true truehonch.
All my mares are in foal and although I would like a new maiden I am sanguine about the chances of acquiring one. Therefore I want to go to Ireland like I want a hole in the head. It,s not looking particularly easy to avoid though  |
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I have digested with interest the tables of leading second and third season sires in Europe that have appeared in the EBN this week. I would be in favour of a fourth season table too as a horse really shouldn't be compared entirely with the tribe in general if he doesn't have enough years under him to render him equal.
Anyway I was particularly interested in Lawman given his fee rise announced today. In 8th place in the 3rd season list I could quite see how the fee rise was justified as he was beaten by the 'very successful and commercial' Authorized, Dylan Thomas, Manduro and then Red Clubs who has one less crop. Bravo Ballylinch and associates. |
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I favour Medicean, Nayef, and Royal Applause in the UK, Rock Of Gibraltar and Dalakhani in Ireland. Too many horses are in-bred to Northern Dancer for my liking, and good out-crosses are rare. I also think Authorized could have a good year in 2014. I always look at the ratio between covering fee and average yearling price too. Some ratios are quite eye-opening, in the wrong way!!
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Just run a primitive analysis of 2013 and one for outside the box, considering his nomadic career and poor level of mare quality, ok nobody than the owner might dare use him but...Milk It Mick.
The other startling bit of data was as a broodmare sire, Mind Games |
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where is Strong Suit. He could get a few mares couldn't he?
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Thinks he's at Newsells Park?
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Perhaps not? Having just Googled him, he arrived at Tweenhills but no decision had been made according to report. No further sightings!
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Hi Mary,
thanks for the info. The last I remember of him was flopping in a race in the US. Is there any chance of him covering next year? I hope so, he would be a good fit for a mare I have here, providing he gets into my skinny budget. |