Matings 2014 OUTSIDE the Box

If you have the right mare I think Sir Percy will get you a profit.

Is Major Cadeaux any sort of a runner for less than 2k?

Big Bad Bob is staying at 6k euros next year, that is if you can get him. He covered the dams of 40 stakes horses in 2012 so next year is going to be a formality. He will be 20k in 2015. I am sure Ger Lyons and Jessica Harrington will get the pick and train a few for Anamoine.I have no doubt that these two trainers will train 2 year old BBB black type performers in 2014.

A list of horses I'm quite prepared to be set right about.

Lilbourne Lad - quite nice pages of Tatts foals, if they look ok then..
Lord Shanakil - solid enough yearling sales, good range of buyers & interesting potential as sire
Showcasing - would only need a few good ones next year to make this work (assuming no stupid price rise on bk of decent sales)
Equiano - the next Dark Angel / Dutch Art..?
Sir Percy - building solid rep but probably too busy / price rise
Approve - sold well enough and breezers liked so precocity likely, could do a 'dandy man'
Footstepsinthesand - sales seems to be starting to recognise consistent quality but only at right price.

Sudirman is the 2yo to retire (wont stay, pure 2yo - famous last words), at 6k Euro thank you very much.

Back to a blank piece of paper for me.

Would any stallion master be so kind as to bring Azamour over at say £5k?

Aussie Rules £6k following the Lanwades theme..

I've even asked if Observatory might be disturbed from his retirement tho thinking outside box isn't exactly how I would describe it.

Yer Ma

I like Showcasing a lot and intend to use him this year but only at £3k. Any idea that he is worth more than that let alone the current £4.5k is lunacy. The thought that there may be a price rise bemuses me. He may well get plenty of winners next year, he may also do a Bushranger.

Getting good 2yo winners is getting harder as there are a lot of established 2yo sires now like Kheleyf, Kodiac etc that provide hefty competition for first seasoners. Please everybody if you can't get a good discount of the advertised price for Showcasing don't use him. Point out that they had a champion first seasoner in Sakhees Secret and he's not exactly hot stuff now!

Sir Percy - deeply uncommercial.
Major Cadeaux - not good enough.
Observatory - just don't even go there.
Lord Shanakil - overrated and nicked a G1.

If you're going to spend under 10k it has to be Equiano.

sir p med/av of 30gns  on 6k noms, is this too low? seemed to be going ok to me

JM, I don't think Sir Percy is deeply uncommercial. He had 17 lots in Bk2 and averaged £40k. not bad for a 7k covering. In Bk3 7 lots averaged £20k.

I agree he's not for everyone, but if you have the right mare at £7k there's a definite profit to be made if not a fortune.

johnyrotten, never read your reply before I jumped in. Sorry to duplicate your observations.

Sorry to rabbit on a bit, but I was parked close to a sir percy filly at tatts and she was the most shown filly on the strip. nobody had a bad word for him. Plenty of others were getting slated but he was quite well liked.
I was actually next door to a Equiano filly who also got lots of interest and a really nice Azamour filly that didn't get out much at all.

Maybe we should call this thread selling in 2015 / 2016 as it helps us to try and focus on what is going to be popular then rather than what is popular now.

I like Sir Percy and also for that matter Sixties Icon at the moment but think both will be National Hunt sires in a couple of year time.  Kodiac will continue to churn out 2yo winners but with largish crops coming you are going to struggle to stand out from the crowd.

I don’t think Big Bab Bob is a bad shout at all.  By the time you come to sell he should be starting to motor.

Kendargent is a little iffy in my opinion. Unless you are going to jump through all the various hoops so the offspring qualifies for the various premiums and you sell in France I’m not sure using any French stallion is a goer (excluding Redoubte’s Choice).

Anyway here's my attempt at being Mystic Meg:

Monsieur Bond – gone quiet but has some bigger crops in the pipeline

Camacho / Showcasing – if you’ve used either of these, the latter would make a nice follow-on mating with any upcoming success by either boosting the latter.

Approve – has the pedigree to make it, his Dam has bred a listed winner but will be 4th season so very risky. Boom or Bust.

Born to Sea – cracking pedigree(obviously), sell as a foal.

Choisir – should have some nice ones in the pipeline after Starspangledbanner (did he stand in Europe in 2012 though?), consistently turns out the odd good one.  Olympic Glory’s success may mean a fee increase though.

is there no hope for the likes of Delegator or Bated Breath as second season sires?

what about Champs Elysees? He got that |Avenue Gabriel in his first crop of 2yo's. Is there no confidence in him going forward. Surely as 3yo's his first crop must get better.

am I clutching at straws?

for that matter what about intense focus? I thought he had done quite well this year with a bit of a classic prospect to boot.

Gosh, some fancies tickled!

I!ve used Sir Percy before and it all went horribly wrong but I do think he stacks up well for the purposes that we discuss. It's just hard to return to the scene of a crime though isn't it!
Camacho is going to be an up and down one isn't he and last years coverings don't really exist do they. I can see them being a bit greedy fee wise too.
I think Showcasing doesn't have the potential to do a Bushranger as we are talking smaller numbers in terms of quantity and cost so there aren't, as many opportunities to disappoint. I have a small connection with one of them and he should run alright but I am expecting a bit of inconsistency.
Choisir I think is a maybe but Champs Élysées needs a review right at the end of the season to assess the late maiden types
I prefer Delegator to Bated Breath as it purely comes down to what stock looks best at this end of the market and he is half the price.
I fell off Born to Sea late last season and I think that's where I shall remain. I think he is more Black Sam Bellamy than Galileo.
M Bond will remain a shot for a cheapy and should be dirt cheap this time shouldn't he.
I have a sneaking for Lord Shanakill like Yer ma, but I don't really know why and I think Kodiac has a bit of mileage in him as they make the track and I would guess the trainers like them if they are nice to have around

Yes I'd agree with you Lord Shanakil is worth a look,he does get good sorts and that's always half the battle as we all know esp' at this end of things.Monsieur Bond again,plenty going for him next year stock sold well gets good sorts and Kodiac too. As for Champs Elysees........commercial

By 'Eck, there's a stranger in town. . .

You going to buy back one of your own next month Prima? She won't fetch much, I might have a go myself

Glad that your typing fingers are still up for an occasional outing!

I see Cheveley Park Stud are selling a colt foal by Showcasing at Tatts. Didnt realise they used stallions like that.

Have we discussed Cityscape yet? I always thought there might be a place for a son of Selkirk, not sure yet whether he's it though. Talented horse but I get the feeling he could produce some funny looking foals.

I think Cheveley take shares in a lot of stallions Wily.

With Showcasing who combines a good page with the odd exceptional show of form why wouldn't you just in case.

Anyone diving straight in to the freaky phenomenem that is Fast Company?

is parish hall staying in training?

not much has been said about Mastercraftsman on here. He is out of my range but if they keep him at around £15k surely he is going to be attractive to buyers. If he wins the RP Trophy today he may go up a bit, but I would have thought he would have got on your list PotM

Truehonch. I write my stallion 'long list' every year on a piece of card that then gets put in a bull dog clip with all the previous years. The early years influence the current one and it's my place to start every season.
Crisis point though has been reached! All my worldly goods are in boxes in stables and I have mislaid the trusty bulldog!
What's a boy to do? Am I going to be able to cover any of my mares at all?

So no, Mastercraftsman is not duly noted, but I agree he is worthy of close inspection.

Does anyone have personal commercial experience of him? Is it easy to breed a nice one ( because In my eyes HE isn't a nice one) I would imagine that he should be nailed on as a training on type.

I imagine they might get a bit starry with his fee too.

I wasn't a fan of Mastercraftsman either as a looker.  And I saw Master Carpenter in the flesh a couple of days ago and he wasn't over big (surprised Cheveley have bought a half share in him too).

Well, if he gets his going, Mastercraftsman may well get a classic winner in his first crop.

Outside several boxes - Is The Carbon Unit worth a look post RP trophy?

I’ve been giving this thread a bit more thought and have come up with another one for the list – Roderic O’Connor

2nd in a Dewhurst as a 2yo, bred on the Galileo/Danehill mare as per Frankel, Teofilo, Intello etc etc, Dam had bred a couple of others with ability, you’d be using him 3rd season (deals to be done) so he’ll have two crops racing if you sell as a yearling so every chance of them succeeding (or failing miserably) another one for the boom or bust category.

PP, he went up from 9k to 10k in his second season. If you can get him for 6k its a fair gamble.

What about Mount Nelson? unchanged at £6k. Is this too far out of the box?

and Intense Focus?

Can't take Mount Nelson I'm afraid truehonch. Intense Focus has something to recommend him but he's a bit of a crystal baller I think.

TAMAYUZ. Now that fee reduction has caught my eye.

I'm not sure a stallion on the way down is the way ahead. However I am not sure this is a stallion on the way down!

Any thoughts on him out there?

Tamayuz, consistent enough so far, nice distaff side, seem to sell well enough so far, ? being dampened by Nayef, though he's decent enough to me (though stamina laden)

Mount Nelson, sell well enough up to now but in 2 years might be revealed as a sire of big slow ones, can you pin all hope on Berkshire; though at £6k he's not off my list yet...cue PM to come to the rescue of a child holding a sparkler by the wrong end..

I don't see Tamayuz doing any better than his sire who had a good start but is for some reason not that sought after. I see T going the same way.

Tamayuz has done nothing to command a fee of 5K let alone 12.5K.

I think the reason that there is so little positive consensus is that there is very little value being offered (I just read that sentence and realise I have stated the bloody obvious!).

Sires like Sir Percy, Aussie Rules, Showcasing and others should be 25-30% cheaper than advertised. There is probably plenty of movement in these prices otherwise it will probably be better to pinhook than breed at the cheaper end. You can understand it with the bigger operations that can support their stallions with their hoards of broodmares but others should be more competitive.

Blimey.

That's told me.
Tamayuz isn't Nayef as he can get a 2yo. I have slight worries because of the quality of mares he has covered but you can nigh on double the amount of opportunities/mares he would have had if he had stood at Coolmore say, so if you loosely doubled the stakes horses he has had you might be talking 20+ stakes horses from one crop of 3yo's and two crops of 2yo's.
Now I know that is slightly crazy logic but really johnnyM, -5k?

Where do you go for a proven sire at less than 80k then?

I get what you're saying truehoncho, but my feelings are that I would rather risk paying perhaps around 1k too much on those stallions you mention than perhaps 5k too much on the likes of Tamayuz etc. As you say, there is probably some movement in the prices anyway.

interesting point about balancing it against pinhooking a foal, was thinking about pinhooking a filly this year as I reckon the market for colts will be too hot for my pocket.

Wilycayote, you are right of course an extra 1 or 2k is not that significant in the total cost of a yearling. My 2 points would be:

1 providing decent value should be any business' goal and not to behave like some sort of monopoly (although if your customers are happy with you treating them like that, that's how your going to behave)

2 i'm the one taking the risk and doing the work so why shouldn't I have the 1 or 2k.

PotM

in his first season Nayef got 7 2yo winners and 6 in his second. Tamayuz got 8 and 7 respectively.
After that Nayef dropped off, but I don't think there is a world of difference. You could argue that T 2yo's are a bit better but I think a lot of that is due to the type of mares he gets.

I hope this isn't coming across as a T bashing it's not. I have always quite liked N and thought if he got more chances he could do better, as a lot of others could.

I'm not anti Nayef truehonch, he has done me a significant favour in the past. Mind you, I had to wait for the favour which perhaps sums him up!

The like of Sir Prancelot is never going to come from Nayef and I do think there is significant difference in perception if nothing else.

Wily it will be interesting to see how many others are hoping for a bit of an angle with a filly this month. It's going to be nigh on impossible to find a colt with an angle but I think an obvious filly will be sought after too.

In nerdily looking at sale medians, percentages compared to costs and fee I would say Tamayuz is giving as good a chance of making a profit as any sire out there.

In 2 years will any momentum be drooping, will buyers have moved on to the next great white hope, so he would be of more risk than the usual suspects Kyllachy, Medicean, Dutch Art (if they dont go silly) Royal Applause, Whitsburys etc. (Sir Percy and Mount Nelson might also stack up at a similar stage of their careers)

He also doesn't strike me as partic attractive or imposing but he should be at least under consideration

Reading this I'd be of the same opinion as Pot M, Tamayuz is far more commercial than Nayef. He does get classy 2y'olds, and fast early ones as well rather than the later miling types of his father. It is not just number of 2y'olds winners but the type of horse they are. As Pot M rightly points out, Nayef wouldn't get you a Sir Prancealot. On that point I was rather surprised to see only one mare catalogued at Newmarket in foal to Sir P,a young 2y'old winning mare by Royal Applause with a nice early covering. If she fulfilled my rather vague specification of being a good sort and a good walker then she would not be a bad choice for someone looking to pick up a commercial sort on a budget. I would be fairly sure a nice foal would pay for her purchase and leave enough for some cheese to go on the bread too. Feb foaling means you could follow up with another budget commercial sire, ie Swiss Spirit, and have plenty of chance to profit with that too. Enough winners on her page to suggest they should win as well. Might be worth a look for those of you looking for an angle on a budget.
I agree that the foal sales are shaping up to be strong again this year and with some nice stallions having their first foals there could be a bunfight.

Well as you'll know Prima, mine'll go cheap.
I'm the best place to go for a bargain!!

I think with the Royal Applause mare I might be tempted to go 5th dam on her foals pages.
I think there are plenty old enough still out there to be positively reminded of the once terrific Overbury family.
A filly might be a bit of a bummer though.

Ok for what it's worth I'll have a go at the sires I'm considering for 2014,  all are gambles rather than commercial plays.

Fast Company,  for the price you are getting the only horse who put it up to new approach as a 2yo, his dewhurst form is unbelievably strong defeating 3 future stallions , by danehill dancer out of a zafronic mare, decent pedigree, decent yearling sales to decent trainers, a lot of positives.
His negative for me is his size, he is very big in the flesh ( I thought) not always helpfull for a flat stallion

Most Improved, I presume ( maybe naively) he'll be fairly cheap, Good 2yo form for a May foal and a G1 winning 3yo. I like his current pedigree being by Lawman out of a 10 yo Linamix mare who has already produced 2 G1 winners, I don't know how he's on the looks front

Le Cadre Noir, very left field suggestion here, but he's a very good looking fast son of Danetime out of an Indian Ridge mare, with a reasonably good pedigree ( a lot better than Bushranger anyway). I'd imagine you'd get him for peanuts this year, his stock haven't been too popular but I see a yearling sold in the latest Goffs sale for 26000, I sent a mare with conformation issues to him and ended up with a cracking foal.  His biggest obstacle will be lack of support/numbers

Dream Ahead, maybe optimistic here but what price will a third season son of Diktat stand for? If he was gettable for near 4 figures I'd like to have a punt,  maybe I should gather my pesetas and just use the old man.

Ooh, I enjoyed that Ovalu!

Nice to read a considered short list and it's got me thinking once again.

I haven't seen Fast Company, but in the current climate I think he cannot be struck from the list. I am surprised he is big as he doesn't strike me as being so from his photo and not particularly from his Rathasker video either. As I have probably said before, I like a horse that is bigger than it seems or perversely one that appears bigger than it is, if it is small.
I think that his fabulous yearling sales probably take care of any such worries, but perhaps prudence would suggest no giants to him also.

Most Improved. I think actually that boatyard issues would be of some concern on this one from pedigree but obviously viewing would sort that either way. He wasn't on my radar but of course we would never get anywhere if we were too sweeping with our judgements.
If ever a horse trained off he was it. Disaster after disaster post St James' Palace stakes I would love to know why? Can anyone put their finger on it, indeed is it a genuine mystery or just one that is being withheld from public consumption?
Fact is though a bunch of good looking 1st croppers and the positives are enough to support them to a pretty good level commercially. No where to hide if they don't look the part though and the 115 lengths between him and the winner on his last 5 starts will suddenly become fresher in the minds of the buyers.

Dream Ahead is tricky but of course we are about to get a better idea there in the next month.

Le Cadre Noir. Well he is one for every man and their conscience to take a view on! Not for me but I can only glance at his type occasionally because he is over the water so isn't going to happen!

Le Cadre Noir? Sacre Bleu, Joot Alors, Non, non, non. NH sire waiting to happen.

What's wrong with Equiano? If his 2yos hit the ground running and his career path follows his sire, he might be cheap at 8k.

Dear Lovely Cheveley.

Sure as the sun rises, they can be relied upon to over egg the pudding.

Or is it just me?

I agree with you PotM (Kyllachy up to 15k, good stallion but did he have a great year on the track?)

On the other hand, Mayson down to 6k. That tells me he must have been really poorly received last year. Is he already a sinking ship in just his 2nd season!? Tells me to avoid mud-loving specialists, the market just doesn't find them sexy.

Still room for a profit with Kyllachy and Medicean, Dutch Art now joining Pivotal in touch and go territory.

Bahamian Bounty £8.5, Delegator £4 not so bad. Waiting on Champs Elysees now, oh and the end of turf season and hours of data inputting.

Fair play to Newsells in this market. All three of their stallions now seems well priced and at 8k - I've seen lots of nice Equiano's, the best trainers have bought Equianos and I've bred a nice Equiano.  One that falls plum in PotM's description of an 'obvious filly' to buy (if only it was a colt).

I'd like to be persuaded about Most Improved but the profile is garbage. 

Cheveley are in a toffs dreamland where we should be doffing our caps and lucky to get our mares covered.  If you want a Dutch Art - buy a foal.  I'd be amazed if more than 40% clear that cover fee.  Explain to me why Medicean 2013 yearling median is 45k and DA is 47k and one is 3.5x more expensive. 

Can Shadwell / Derrinstown not find something new (Soft Falling Rain / Mukhadaram)?  Coolmore 2yo?

Anyone know how low they actually go for Pastoral Pursuits?  I heard 3k not so long ago.

I couldn't agree more yer ma. I know I probably post too often on here but £35k for DA is nonsensical. How can that be an attractive proposition to any breeder. Iffraaj looks a steal at £25k. By the way you can get the other DA for £35k and if you have the right mare that's a far better proposition.

And while we're at it. . .

After Pivotal's 1st crop finished their 4 yo season he too took his first fee hike, this time to 25k.

He'd managed a champion filly in the U.S, Golden Apples. German Oaks winner Sylvester Lady and champion sprinter Kyllachy, obviously Gp 1 winners the three.

How come 3 group 2 winners by the same stage make Dutch Art worth 10 k more? Are times really so different.?

It's funny how Ifraaj is looking attractive now! I think our gut reactions are usually right mind you. I think we will have to move fast on the things that look affordable. Certainly if I have a quick lottery win then Dawn Approach is the priciest best shot.

Proxygene, Champs Elysees at £5k. What do you think?

By crickey.

Coolmore fees, like a Tarts drawers.

Don't think I've ever seen such a fascinating list!!!

Shocked n stunned - never thought I'd be saying Coolmore is where the values at...slight air of stack em high sell em cheap but 12.5k for Pour Moi - where do I sign - and lots at 10k.  With the right mare 25k Camelot or 25k Intello....mmmm let me think.  Even Choisir, arguably has worlds top miler this year and is still 1/3 of the price of Dutch Art.  Pivotal and DD are one and the same for me - 25k (if you're so inclinced) is very fair money, 45k is not.

Dec of War, High Chap, Rip Van and Mastercraftsman do present another side of the coin though do they not.?

I also feel that Declaration of War has a 'ship him to Ashford for 2015 and we'll have a double year of 1st season premium' look about him.

Darley have done well (or got lucky, take your pick) to get together some good stallions over the last couple of years but have to agree with yer ma that the value is at Coolmore. I'm not in the price bracket but DD does seem good value.

We could do with Coolmore over here to get some  of these other studs on their toes. Delegator does seem a good opportunity if you are going to sell as a foal.

Truehoncho, still dithering about Champs, on one front he would be a good enough choice for both my mares but on the other he's probably not sharp enough for the maiden and I should go more imaginatively with the other. I do like him and might well regret not using him by next year if he does take off. In the meantime I need to analyse more closely his offspring and end of season results, and visit Darley +-Lanwades to check out the just cheap enoughs and the should be cheapers respectively.

Too true truehonch.

All my mares are in foal and although I would like a new maiden I am sanguine about the chances of acquiring one.
Therefore I want to go to Ireland like I want a hole in the head.

It,s not looking particularly easy to avoid though

I have digested with interest the tables of leading second and third season sires in Europe that have appeared in the EBN this week. I would be in favour of a fourth season table too as a horse really shouldn't be compared entirely with the tribe in general if he doesn't have enough years under him to render him equal.

Anyway I was particularly interested in Lawman given his fee rise announced today.
In 8th place in the 3rd season list I could quite see how the fee rise was justified as he was beaten by the 'very successful and commercial' Authorized, Dylan Thomas, Manduro and then Red Clubs who has one less crop.

Bravo Ballylinch and associates.

I favour Medicean, Nayef, and Royal Applause in the UK, Rock Of Gibraltar and Dalakhani in Ireland. Too many horses are in-bred to Northern Dancer for my liking, and good out-crosses are rare. I also think Authorized could have a good year in 2014. I always look at the ratio between covering fee and average yearling price too. Some ratios are quite eye-opening, in the wrong way!!

Just run a primitive analysis of 2013 and one for outside the box, considering his nomadic career and poor level of mare quality, ok nobody than the owner might dare use him but...Milk It Mick.

The other startling bit of data was as a broodmare sire, Mind Games

where is Strong Suit. He could get a few mares couldn't he?

Thinks he's at Newsells Park?

Perhaps not?  Having just Googled him, he arrived at Tweenhills but no decision had been made according to report.  No further sightings!

Hi Mary,
thanks for the info. The last I remember of him was flopping in a race in the US. Is there any chance of him covering next year?
I hope so, he would be a good fit for a mare I have here, providing he gets into my skinny budget.