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potentialmillionaire
15 Nov 10 19:50
Joined:
Date Joined: 17 Mar 10
| Topic/replies: 2,698 | Blogger: potentialmillionaire's blog
Approve           5k               Zebedee      6k
Fast Company 5k                Vale of York 5k
Lord Shanakill ?                   Starspangledbanner ?
Equiano           8k                Paco Boy     8.5k
Arcano             6k                Showcasing 5k
Arabian Gleam 2k                Mawatheeq  5k
      Mullionmileanhour 1800?

Forgive me for and please add any missing horses, but I have attempted to compile the cheap (&ish) horses going to stud next year.

Lots of things are of interest perhaps. Firstly is there really only Makfi and Ripvanwinkle to represent the more upmarket retiree this year?

What will the trainer/agent who majors in the 1st season sire make of this? We all know the feeling when we have a nice but unexeptional horse to sell and the catalogue hits the door mat and you find said horse is one of 45 by the sire. Surely a hell of a lot of the above are interchangeable? Why will he pay a good price for my Arcano when he can wait for the nice Showcasing in the next barn or the Approve after that?

In my mind there really are too many similar horses retiring this year. Has the downturn made them more affordable to buy?

I think perhaps that the 'tired' older commercial types covering more modest books might not be totally without merit. Sure there are less buyers for their stock but the % of buyers to offspring offered could be more favourable than with the oceans of lots by the above.

If everyone has as little life as I do then please comment on the horses that are 'nailed on' (no such thing I know, I know)
and the disliked in equal measure!
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Report Prima Donna November 15, 2010 10:46 PM GMT
"Firstly is there really only Makfi and Ripvanwinkle to represent the more upmarket retiree this year?"

Pot' M, I think this is  a prime example of what I was saying on here a few days ago. The 10-20k fee bracket is the toughest commercially and where the most danger lies. Stallion masters know this as well as anyone and so they are shopping (or pricing)just below that level. Returns for both mare owner and stud can still be made and stallion studs cannot go year after year with no new sires. Hence the proliferation of sires around the 5/6k mark. Restricted books are certainly a plus point but I feel that it is a little like the 'outcross pedigree' situation, a good idea UNTIL sales time when you hear "not really covered enough to factor high on the 1st season list/ slightly unusual pedigree". However it is foolish in the extreme to have lot after lot by the same sire. It is tedious if nothing else. As for the sires above being interchangable then that is nothing new, remember the glut of Sadlers Wells sons, Green Desert sons, Danehill horses. Just cashing in on what is popular at the time

"I think perhaps that the 'tired' older commercial types covering more modest books might not be totally without merit. Sure there are less buyers for their stock but the % of buyers to offspring offered could be more favourable than with the oceans of lots by the above."

As you say though Pot'M, they are tired. Maybe 2 buyers for 20 horses sounds better than 30 buyers for 300 but the maths is the same. The new intake above (with notable exception, Mullionmileanhour) don't seem a bad bunch and can surely only make the tired old has-beens job even harder? Standing the new horses at 5k ish there is much better chance of making a return than an old has-been at 8K [smiley:crazy] you are brave going into the sale ring with a foal by an old hat sire that stands you in 11k against sons of hot fashionable sires that only work out at 8k inc costs.
Report Johnny_Mustang November 16, 2010 4:37 PM GMT
Hi PM. I think Mullionmileanhour is going to be 2.5K (yes, really) and we've got to add Stimulation standing at Llety
Report potentialmillionaire November 16, 2010 6:30 PM GMT
Apologies to Stimulation. I think on looks at least he sits ok amongst most of these.

I agree with most of your points Prima, it just feels that the above list is a bit more extreme than usual in terms of actual numbers and similarity.
If the ammount of buyers of a proven sire's progeny remains constant in percentage terms then there must be a chance more of the above may flounder than we expect. Absolutely no way of quantifying this though, so I might be talking my usual b^lls.

But which one will be hot? !

I want to choose the one that will spit out the beautiful foal time and again. That's sort of all that matters. Come on you geniuses, WHICH ONE Mischief
Report Prima Donna November 16, 2010 8:24 PM GMT
Who the hell decided to stand Mullionmileanhour at that priceShocked?Reckon with 2k off that price he'd still be expensive.Your right some of the new stallions may founder when stock hit the ring who knows,but one things for sure 'old has beens'will be going only one way...........backwards.Sure they will have a few buyers but if you are commercial and can take a chance then why not?yer ma the other day commented about Arabian Gleam going to stud saying it said more about your mare,perhaps it should be remembered that the covering does NOT make the mare.


I want to choose the one that will spit out the beautiful foal time and again. That's sort of all that matters. Come on you geniuses, WHICH ON


Good question thing is none of us have a crystal ball,only you can know what sort of stock your mare gets and then decide which won is going to get you the sort that will hopefully get you that all important GR winner.
Report yer ma November 16, 2010 9:51 PM GMT
This is a good debate to have but I'd suggest that Paco Boy / Equiano / Starspang are a cut above (in terms of chance of return) than most of the rest in this list.  Total guesswork trying to decide which 2 or maybe 3 of the others might make the commercial grade.

Slightly off topic - anyone seen Schiaparelli?  Before you all say look at Monsun sons falling on their faces - I've a old mare with a Listed son by Monsun and this could be a cheap last hurrah.
Report potentialmillionaire November 17, 2010 8:04 PM GMT
Yer ma, your highlighting of those 3 is pertinent. They are perhaps the weakest of most mentioned on pedigree but their profile and ability is so much stronger than the others for not much more money. Will their pedigree/sireline really hold back their chances at the sales?
I think not in the slightest. However it may have a significant effect on their ability to 'stamp' over their mates and a mixed bag of offspring will do all the holding back instead!
I've got my crystal ball on order.
I don't know about Schiarpelli. He was obviously a good mover but if you are taking a chance on producing a commercial sales horse for the flat market from a jumps promoted horse then you are a brave soul indeed Grin It's not something I would try, but it does sometimes happen.
I wonder what you'll have to pay for a Shirocco this time round? I'm not saying whether he will make it but his results are good enough for a backward type. They've come to hand earlier than Monsun's do. He is such a glorious looking beast I'd love him to succeed.
Report RipVanWinkle November 17, 2010 10:54 PM GMT
Alfred Nobel might be for youHappy
Report Prima Donna November 18, 2010 11:38 AM GMT
yer ma,I agree with Pot'M that is indeed a very brave thing to do sending a mare to a jumping stallion as it will look very mongrel bred when you try and sell it as a flat horse.Do you not think as she has bred a listed winner by Monsun you'd be better capitalizing on that aspect by sending her to something more commercial than a son of his?As you yourself point out his sons have been very disappointing so far,imo Shirocco is playing a waiting game to become a jump sire so I'd steer clear of him if she was mine.


Pot M,Do you really think colt's like Paco Boy and Equiano are going to be more commercial than say Arcano or Showcasing and even Zebedee?Standing for the money with costs as well I reckon your return will be better than either of those two both of you seem to like,think of the hottest sires right now if you know who then you should see the answer.Equiano is a good looking horse but as has been said on other posts he has no page at all he will need to be able to upgrade your mares simply off the back of his own sire as his pedigree is utter trash a bit like Where or When remember him[;)]Grinbut then that's down to our own choices saying that mind I'll have a fiver bet that I make more money than you and what's more my outlay will be less!Happy

Rip Van,Do you know how much Alfred Nobel is going to be?Great sire great family as well bred by one of Pot Ms hero'sLaugh
Report yer ma November 18, 2010 1:18 PM GMT
Mongrel bred is a bit harsh. I'd be thinking about a foreign sales trip with this (german bred) mares stock anyway and a colt by Samum out of her could make good money.   I admire your bullishness PD but I'd have an alternative £5 that Arcano and Zeb will cover way too many crappy mares as part of huge books and 50% wont top £10k.  Not in my plans but at least mare quality will be higher and books smaller at Newsells and Highclere (imo). To finish by contradicting myself, I'd go to Vale of York but I dont want the mare to go to Ireland.
Report Prima Donna November 18, 2010 2:30 PM GMT
Maybe a bit harsh Yer Ma, but not unfair I don't think? when you posted above you didn't mention anything about selling abroad and were talking about Schiaparelli not Samum. Your point about lots of crappy mares may be true in Zebedee's case but perhaps you are not aware that Arcano is limited to 90 and those are on application and approval?
Report RipVanWinkle November 18, 2010 6:36 PM GMT
€5000 PD when i was talking to them they never said he was retiring so must have been only decided lately
Report yer ma November 18, 2010 8:00 PM GMT
Wouldnt be doing my job if I didnt consider all viable scenarions for my mares and Schiaparelli is Samums full brother at 1/10th the fee, standing 1k+ miles closer. 

I stand corrected on Arcano, black-type only and no deals I'm sure.
Report potentialmillionaire November 18, 2010 8:53 PM GMT
I bet one thing for sure is that Tamayuz Prima, was not on your list to get a flyer!

The 1st season commercial fashion parade will be won on style, cut and wearability. Pedigree will only be of interest to the extent that it influences looks. Dark Angel, Cockney Rebel et al were this years reminder of the inevitibility of that fact.

I think that I am with yer ma on book sizes and Paco and Equiano's  smaller book size is potentially worth the 3k that they cost over the 'rabble'. And then you get to add their high profile too. It's no slam dunk for the cheaper better bred lads. One thing is for sure, I wouldn't touch Zebedee with a barge pole after seeing the size of Bushrangers book this spring.
Is he going to be the 1st stallion to have over 100 offspring to lose money for their breeders? Odds on I'd say.

And Where or When's 2nd dam bred 2 Gr.1 winners and is a half sister to Blushing Groom's dam Prima, so maybe Danehill Dancer is as much at fault! (Actually I don't think he was a very good horse, which I suspect is where we should start there) There are a ton of good sires without conventionally good pedigrees and many more that only seem to kick into gear after the 1st sire appears, there's certainly nothing written in stone.

Incidentally now that Coolmore fees are out, I reckon I might have won the guessing game!

And how can I win that fiver if you don't tell me how much you 'give back' Laugh
Report Prima Donna November 18, 2010 10:02 PM GMT
I bet one thing for sure is that Tamayuz Prima, was not on your list to get a flyer!

Oh wasn't he Pot M why do you think that?If you remember when he went to stud Nayef was very popular then add into the mix he is from the family of Galileo he was always going to be popular and commercial his sale results confirm my thoughts.
Book sizes are important that's where Arcano and Showcasing have a plus point as they are on limited book sizes.Commercial breeding as a rule demands two things 1,speed both Paco Boy and Equiano have this. 2 preciosity do you think Paco Boy was a good early sort?Equiano was early but winning in Spain is that going to enhance his appeal and don't forget he was wrong in his wind something on another post you were dead against,but I'll use the 'rabble' and make good money you two use the ones you both like but one things for sure it wont be me taking my stock back home or selling outside the ring.

yer ma,With your theory have you ever thought about using Black Sam Bellamy?He is also a full bro' to a champion sire and half bro to Sea the Stars I know he is a jumps sire but that does not seem to put you off!
Report yer ma November 18, 2010 11:14 PM GMT
The joys of being unburdened with self-doubt.  PotM if its at an irish stud by a hot stallion and used by commercial irish breeders, its a winner.  Simple.  No further discussion needed.
Report potentialmillionaire November 19, 2010 8:30 PM GMT
Well I'm glad you're finally seeing sense yer ma. And it's not my place to comment on the source of your new found wisdom Laugh

Apologies Prima. I thought you disliked Nayef, bkwd 2yo records, £10k stud fees, Arab owned studs, Height of Fashions tribe, soft and heavy ground form. Silly me, did you send many mares?

I don't mean 'the rabble' as an entirely negative slant. It's just they are all a bit indistinguishable. I'd guess that a good few of the under raced tribe wouldn't hold a candle to Equiano in terms of soundness even given his wind op after he'd won his first Gp 1. Sadly their truncated careers wouldn't confirm that.

I don't expect I'll use either of the two mentioned. However,with a hypothetical great looking 1st crop for say Zebedee and Equiano, I'd be amazed that Invincible Spirit would be enough in Zebedee's favour to outsell Equiano with his popularity and profile. Ditto, Approve v Paco.

The likliehood of that great looking 1st crop is what I'm always analysing. (And that includes Arcano's Doyoun! )
Report Posh Paddy November 20, 2010 2:09 PM GMT
If you had the choice, which Tally Ho sire would you use.   I'm guessing not Zebedee, but what are your thoughts on Bushranger, Kodiac & Baltic King?

It's the closest stud to where my mare is kept and so very convenient.

As you may remember my mare had a Baltic King colt this year and we are very happy with him, would you go back or would the risk he could be dead in the water by the time it comes to sales be too much?

Kodiac has had an encouraging start and covered decent sized books so the momentum could be sustained but could he have been too popular and suffer from a lack of exclusivity?

Bushranger has been given every chance by his first crop size to make it but if he doesn't hit the ground running then I could be in trouble.

My head says Kodiac, my heart Baltic King and my inner flash git says Bushranger. Decisions decisions.
Report potentialmillionaire November 20, 2010 3:00 PM GMT
Posh, It's only a horsebox trip! Don't let it have too much influence on your stallion choice.
I would imagine that a lot of studs would throw it in if they have their own transport. I walk my mares in, and whilst I don't relish the 31/2 hours to The Royal Studs for a midnight cover, I do do it!

On the Tally ho front, if you are committed, I would go for Zebedee despite my misgivings!
I love 1st season and am only too aware how difficult it is to 2nd guess the prospects of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th season sire. Obviously you are aware of our bickering on book sizes and the homogeanous nature of this years retirees.

Bushranger has covered too many mares. Can you imagine how many trainers will have trained a slow one by the time your yearling comes up? You though could sell as a foal though.

Kodiac has made a very respectable start to his stud career but his yearling median is down from 12k last year to 8k this. I know that isn't necessarily representitive of his perceived merit, but it is an indication of just how difficult it is for a stallion to start at the bottom. So I always remind myself just how unlikely it is for an unproven (not 1st season) to come good commercially.

I think Kodiac will be popular next season, so be very confident that he will go on, as otherwise you might be one of many looking to offload in 2years or so.

Which brings us back to Zebedee. . .  or, another Stud. Confused
Report RipVanWinkle November 20, 2010 3:37 PM GMT
Posh Paddy coolmore have some nice new stallions this year which could be worth a go. Alfred Nobel could be a nice choice not over priced but he is sure to cover a very large book of mares. Have you considered using any other stallions apart from the ones at Tally-Ho. I used Bushranger this year but i wont be sending any more to him due to the amount he has covered.
Report Posh Paddy November 20, 2010 4:47 PM GMT
PotM, are serious?  You've done nothing but slag off Zebedee and he'd be your choice out of the Tally Ho sires?

Anyway, I'm not tied to Tally Ho, it's just I got a nice deal last time and they are very close.  It's not like it's going to be me driving the horsebox, it will be one of my in-laws so I don't really want to take the piss and send them miles and miles.  A 5 hr round trip to Coolmore from Westmeath would be a bridge too far.  Not that I fancy anything at Coolmore in my price bracket (advertised 4-5K).

Alfred Noble would be the best fit of theirs but the soft ground form puts me off.  My Mare had a Choisir filly a few years ago who has won a few races in Greece.  Is he coming back to Ireland?  Probably would be too expensive anyway.

I am open to suggestions so if anyone has any I'm all ears.  Anyone used Haatef?
Report potentialmillionaire November 20, 2010 5:55 PM GMT
Serious indeed Posh Paddy.

I don't particularly love Zebedee for sure, but I think perhaps it is the concept of the early retiree and the profusion of similar types that has caused me most concern, on this blog, I don't think I've been quite as cruel as you imply. And remember you only gave me a choice of 4!! Also there are a great many studs who wouldn't have the horses to attract my custom. It's nothing personal but it's just lifes rich pattern and right now Tally Ho doesn't have anything that fits my bill probably.

Given your location concerns isn't Arcano the one off the above list? But I really would give the in-laws a day off and pay a transporter if it means you can open up your choices.

Is there a U-turn on Choisir? Cancelled through lack of interest? I wouldn't personally chase a full sibling to a Greek winner, a half by something sexier would be a better bet perhaps.
My first port of call is always what would suit my mare from the knowledge I have. Then a trip to see the new guys will hopefully firm things up. Please have a look at the UK horses too  and give me a hand Grin.
Report Prima Donna November 20, 2010 6:53 PM GMT
Posh Paddy,You could take the view that though Bushranger has covered a enormous book if you do use him I'd take the chance and sell you resulting foal as a yearling as with so many on the ground and being such a good 2y'old he has a real chance of being one of the leading first crop sires and maybe Champion first season sire,but if you did make that choice then deal hard with Tony I'd try for 5k you might get him esp' as you are a client of his.
Baltic King is a great looking stallion and is just the sort we all should use as he was so tough and very consistent and retired sound and as you know is a son of the great Danetime but he has never covered big books for one reason or another,as you have a nice colt by him now if the mare was mine I would tend not to go back so soon if your foal is a good runner then perhaps then go back to him,and as Bushranger is another son of Danetime that might be helpful .I know his trainer Hughie Morrison he rated him as one of his best.
Kodiac could be a dangerous horse to use next year as he has had just the one crop atm people are keen to buy his stock but that could change over the next few years he has been popular with breeders but I reckon though he has had about 120 mares this year his quality mares surely have been scarce this year(but I don't know that for sure).Zebedee!Potentialmillionaire's favourite new stallion along with the ever commercial yer ma,I think Potentialmillionaire's points are about spot on with him if you do use him I'd want to feel sure my mare has a page that will hold plenty of appeal as like has been said above he's sure to get a huge book. Could you be sure he alone is going to really sell your foal as there will be dozens on offer the choice for buyers will be endless you will need a stand out foal/page to make a worthwhile return.

I'd give Haatef a miss if I were you he is very small and toes in on both,I don't know what you think but really was he good enough?If you have 5k to spend on your choice what do you think of Gay's new Oasis Dream horse Approve? Arcano is on application they are going to be very choosy with their selections and try to give him only quality mares.Would you consider sending her over to England?Showcasing will be commercial speaking to other breeders plenty of them rate him as a nice prospect.Another to think about would be Vale of York a GR1 winnig 2y'old by Invisible Spirit 5k first season.
Report Prima Donna November 20, 2010 7:02 PM GMT
**Invincible Spirit.........he is real not a ghost!**
Report potentialmillionaire November 20, 2010 7:05 PM GMT
Prima, if I find out you've been necking the Babycham . . .Laugh
Report Prima Donna November 20, 2010 7:11 PM GMT
ShockedI never drink Babycham!Do I sound like I do?
Report potentialmillionaire November 20, 2010 7:18 PM GMT
Don't worry, I won't tell a soul. [;)]
Report Prima Donna November 20, 2010 7:22 PM GMT
That's good you will see next week because if I buy your filly I will be drinking (at you expense Tatt's champagne!)and I reckon I'd drink you under the table any-day of the week![;)]
Report potentialmillionaire November 20, 2010 7:56 PM GMT
I'm a cheap date !!!
Report Prima Donna November 20, 2010 8:12 PM GMT
Pot'M, as you can imagine I'm very very expensive!Cool
Report Posh Paddy November 20, 2010 8:27 PM GMT
Thanks for the all the feedback.

My mare would probably not be good enough for Arcano, she's only a full sister to a listed winner and although she breeds winners none of them have set the world on fire. Just feel she has a good one in her - hope springs eternal.  So that rules Zebedee out too as the page is not good enough.

I'm not really a fan of Approve or Vale of York, call me old fashioned but I'd rather a sire who raced on from 2 to 3.  If you look at the list of top 2yo sires most of them were better older than younger (excl Danehill Dancer & HRE).

I'd be more interested in Camacho. I actually inquired about using him last year but they wouldn't deal on the fee.  The Tally Ho O'Callaghan s were much more amenable.

A trip across the Irish sea is out of the question, the mare just isn't worth it.

Prima D, I take your point on Bushranger but taking a punt on him being champion 1st season sire seems a bit risky although with my mare it may be my only chance to make a good return.

My criteria is quite tight and I'm just trying to see if there is a glaringly obvious choice I've missed.
Report RipVanWinkle November 20, 2010 8:43 PM GMT
Your going to find it hard to get a stallion for the mare unless you travel. Coolmore have some nice horses around the €5000 mark but some are coming into tough seasons. Maybe Lord Shanakil might suit you he's a first season sire who was a group 2 winning 2 year old by a promising sire in the States. I'm not sure how he's going to get on mares wise but it wont be restricted. Maybe Intense Focus he was a Group 1 winning 2 year old has been well received by Giants Causeway from a nice family.
Report potentialmillionaire November 20, 2010 9:38 PM GMT
I'm glad someone has brought up Lord Shanakill.

He doesn't appear on the INS website, but I see he is in the brochure.

I know Prima Donna doesn't think his profile is right for our scene and I definitely think he has a point.

He does come from a 'proper' family though, he made a bob or two as a yearling, was sound and ran his race on a number of occasions. They've been brave enough to put a photo up which shows him a bit ordinary/faultable but likeable in a way, too.

I would definitely like to take a look at him as he wouldn't be without a chance IF ofcourse he seems likely to be able to produce in the beauty parade stakes.

Well done for avoiding Camacho at full price Posh Paddy. Can you imagine what Gay would do if he wasn't offered a deal? Talk about double standards. Did the horse have Hasili and Zarkava already booked?
Report RipVanWinkle November 20, 2010 11:09 PM GMT
We have a mare going to him next year potm. He is a very classy mare are most of her offspring. She comes from a nice family with plenty of speed and i would be hoping for a nice two year old. Lord Shanakil should not be written off as he was a good two year old trained on to win a group 1 at three and a group 2 at four. He comes from a very good family but i'm not sure will the national stud get the mares that he needs to ensure he will become a good stallion he has the credentials though. Somethign you like potm is that he was tough and retired sound
Report Prima Donna November 21, 2010 7:11 AM GMT
They've been brave enough to put a photo up which shows him a bit ordinary/faultable but likeable in a way, too.

Well that does make him sound great!I'd be very careful just what my mare was like,she would need to get very good looking sorts as sending him a average looking mare will result in only one thing a ordinary/faultable foal that grows on to become just an average yearling.........Yep great idea!Shocked
Report Prima Donna November 21, 2010 7:44 AM GMT
Posh Paddy,Just a quick one to run past you but have you thought about using Intikhab?Not too far from you has done reasonably well and his stock do sell relatively well at the sales.For the money (think he is 5k)I don't think he'd be too bad a choice.Thinking about it given your budget and travelling distance range he'd be my choice.
Report yer ma November 21, 2010 10:35 AM GMT
Intikhab...and I'm the one who doesnt think commercially.  Median 2008 6k, 2009 8k, only higher this year because top THREE lots were full brothers to decent horses.  Ignore the figures and tell me I'm wrong - go on.
Report Prima Donna November 21, 2010 11:03 AM GMT
yer ma, I won't tell you you are wrong,but as Posh Paddy's brief is small both in terms of fee and distance what would you come up with then?If you look on the Racing Post site and check out Intikahb's sale returns they are not too bad and full bro's to decent horses proves he can get a good runner.
He is not on my list to use but with such a limited brief I can't see why not.Confused
Report yer ma November 21, 2010 2:55 PM GMT
Its the mans choice but crikey its only 50 miles to Kildare.  Take your pick.  I'm usually £1k a mare down before I even start due to location.  Jeremy could be got for 5k - he's my shout for a Danehill line taking off next year.

To lighten the mood, on Intikhab (who I have no beef with at all in fact my wifes ridden one of his best) - you'd think Derrinstown would make a bit more effort...this comment is lifted from their website today

'He also went close to Group 1 glory with Lexlenos and Les Fazzani while his promising two year olds include the dual Group placed Snow Fairy'
Report Prima Donna November 21, 2010 3:13 PM GMT
I agree with you about Jeremy I too think he might just do it,I've seen lots of his stock and I'd say they are nice sorts,I am going to look at a few of his this coming week and may get one.
its not just Derrinstown who need to make more effort with their website its lots of studs,but Christ if that's what they have on theirs its frankly pathetic!yer ma don't take offence at my stupid comments which were directed at you above as you know I can shoot my mouth off its not the first time and most likely won't be the last,I hope I didn't upset you but if I did then please accept my full apology.Happy
Report Tiswallaceno7 November 21, 2010 5:36 PM GMT
Alfred Nobel for me a very good price all in all. He bound to be very popular.

Speaking of Coolmore sire's i think Holy Roman Emperor is good value at 10k.
Report potentialmillionaire November 21, 2010 7:09 PM GMT
Thanks for your comments on HRE Tiswall. I think there are a few of us on here with an interest still in the stallion. And right now we need all the encouragement going!! He sure is cold right now, but at least he has shown he can get a winner and is not in the Salt Dome/Unblest category quite yet.

I like Intikhab. But both commentators are correct. All stallions in this price range will post some dismal sales results, we've all just got to work mighty hard to breed within the top few foals by any of these sires. There's no safety net out there Cry

Sticking proven or first season and avoiding the inbetweenies makes plenty of sense - as ever - (Jeremy)
Report Prima Donna November 21, 2010 7:27 PM GMT
Pot M,Im going out this evening as I guess you are going to NMKT tommorow let me wish you luck for your foals this week now,I'm pretty sure I know which are yours so keep a close eye out as I will look,2nd look anyway if she gets that far,good luck lets hope its better than your yearlingsGrin
Report potentialmillionaire November 21, 2010 8:10 PM GMT
Thanks Prima, but I'm going to have to put you off my filly - Tatts champagne is out of my league Laugh

I shan't be too upset if I don't make your list I know how sirewise you like the young lovelies. Is Mr Berlusconi a very good chum? [;)]
Report Prima Donna November 21, 2010 8:15 PM GMT
Have you been reading some of my posts on other forums Pot M?And no Berlusconi is a twit but you could say there are simularites with us as I'm sure you know[;)]GrinAnd don't worry the drinks will be on me if I get her!
Report Prima Donna November 28, 2010 7:35 PM GMT
Well Pot M we didn't get to get that drink after-all,how did you feel you got on?Did you get anything else to re offer next year?What did you think trade last week was like?
Report potentialmillionaire November 28, 2010 8:49 PM GMT
Evenin'all.

  I am off to NMKT tomorrow and Tue (at least) to catch up on the sires in town so I thought I'd start a thread for peoples experiences then.

I live to fight another day but it would have been nice to have had a colt that fit. The trade for them at times was almost obscene. Ordinary pages, ordinary (but commercial) sires but a great looker and you could be seriously rewarded. Some of those pinhookers WILL go out of business next year!

Sorry not to have met up Prima, but I was kept busy by Mrs Donna. She's very demanding is she not? Devil


I'm sure you are in full agreement with the sire of the sales topper Prima! And I was pleased for you with your involvement in Ravens Pass. I love this time. Tamayuz and Sakhees Secret joined him with some strong figures, but then New Approach and Mount Nelson just dropped a length or two behind.
You could still sell a Compton Place well and a Royal Applause, but there's nowhere to hide if the old familiars let you down. Bahamian seems to have slipped a notch - finally. Acclamation hot hot hot. Holy Roman, one of the most successful 1st season sires ever, but perception has him dead in the water.

A 'miss' is as good as a mile. And a 'hit' is just as frequently undeserved!
Report potentialmillionaire November 28, 2010 8:57 PM GMT
Most rude of me.

Did you get yourself a lovely filly Prima? (4 legged, I mean) [;)]
Report Prima Donna November 28, 2010 9:19 PM GMT
Yes Pot M I did get myself a nice filly for next year,trade was mad in some quarters I agree about the pinhookers,I think they all wanted the same foals all that does is almost force themselves to pay too much now then next year if they are lucky they might just get out.

Bahamian seems to have slipped a notch - finally. Just wait till next year!saw a couple of her family last week a Motivator filly ex Rummage that was small but looked sharp,then a Exceed and Excel filly out of a Rainbow Quest mare need I say anymore.You are right about Compton Place Trickledown had a nice filly she made about 12/14k some of the Royal Applause's sold though a few failed to get the stud fee back[;)]
Report yer ma December 1, 2010 10:38 PM GMT
Too busy trying to keep horses alive in the ghastly weather to post and almost didnt survive the drive back from Tatts.  Where do these Irishmen keep getting funds for these modest bred and looking 20k foals?  A genuine mystery .  A friend suggested the old saying 'Its not a sweet shop without any sweets' but the bids appeared genuine to me.  I got a couple of cheapies which I can afford to fail with, wasnt going to pay £10k+ for a foal I might at best make £20k for next year.  For example, I've more time than some for Kyllachy but more than a dozen foals sold for over £20k (some a lot more) yet barely more than double that sold as yearlings this year for over £20k.  Thats a very bad bet imho.

Strange times.
Report potentialmillionaire December 2, 2010 8:55 PM GMT
Well yer ma, thank god pinhookers are such a hardy bunch, it's nice to find at least the odd dash of buoyancy in the industry. I suppose they know what is guaranteed to sell for them as yearlings and sadly for them, so does every other foal buyer. It appears they would rather pay over the odds. present those yearlings and lose money, than think outside the box and actually develop some sales skills.
Just about any stallion you care to mention stacks up like your Kyllachy model methinks.

As you were in the foal market, and indeed anyone else, did you get to see a range of 1st season foals? Did anything stand out to you, was the market right in their valuation of the relative progeny?

Also any other December sales-ites. Did we all get to go and see the 4 new sires shipped in for the occaision? I thought they weren't a bad bunch but would love to bounce some ideas around. Makfi, off-fore for instance. Too much?
Report Posh Paddy December 3, 2010 10:52 PM GMT
Could the increased prices not be a simple result of supply and demand.  After all this bunch of foals are the first to be conceived during the credit crunch / recession.  Notably less mares were covered in 09 then 08.  Could it be that demand for certain types is starting to outstrip supply, hence the increase in amounts paid? 

Or are they simply rolling forward capital gains / losses from previous years which I think is indefinite in Ireland?
Report potentialmillionaire December 4, 2010 2:58 PM GMT
I would have thought that if this was so PoshPaddy, then the money would have filtered down a little more evenly. It was only a certain type of foal in demand, I am not sure much can be learned from that. Also I think that the torrid time so many experienced at the yearling sales would have meant a decrease in demand for pin-hook foals that would've been at least commensurate with any drop in foals bred. The catalogue size was about the same too.

Were you at Tatts P.P.? I am still waiting for folks opinions on their views on the 1st season foals! Has anyone seen any of the 2011 new lads yet? Did anyone else see Paco Boy on the Highclere video in the Tea Room? There looked more of him than I imagined.

Come on. I know several of you were there! Did Equiano walk any better for you than he did for me?  etc. etc. etc. Laugh
Report Prima Donna December 4, 2010 10:31 PM GMT
Looks to me Pot'M that no-one on here is confident enough of their own appraisal of the sires to give their opinion. Personally I didn't go and look, I'm not interested at all in Mawatheeq, Equiano (as you know) does nothing at all for me so I didn't waste my time in going to Mertoun Paddocks to see him. I understand Slick is using Makfi, but I didn't go and look at the thing as personally I think she is mad as he is far too expensive for what he is. I had lunch with Chris Harper and whilst I didn't look at Showcasing up there I will be shortly going to Whitsbury to see all the stallions so will see him there. He did tell me that they have over 40 mares booked in for Showcasing so far and he is limited to around 100-120 mares.

C'mon Pot'M, what were your thoughts? Do you plan to be use Paco Boy after being pleasantly surprised by his vid? Is Equiano off the list now or still in with a chance of one of yours?
Report Prima Donna December 5, 2010 9:59 AM GMT
One thing that I always notice with you English breeders is that very few of you are ever confidant of your stallion choices.Over here people say things like "I am using so and so" or "I have used so and so" in England you often hear "What do you think about so and so"or "have you used so and so",what shouts loud and clear to me is over here breeders as a whole are pretty sure of 1,what they are aiming at,2,Just what they need to do to get the desired result.This is not to criticize you Brit's just an observation of you.Happy
Report RipVanWinkle December 5, 2010 4:25 PM GMT
I saw Equiano didn't look at Mount Nelson though. I thought that Equiano doesn't look like a sprinter he's not a big block of a horse like a lot of sprinters he doesn't seem to have much power like something from a Sadler's Wells line stallion which is surprising cause i was expected a very powerful horse when i saw him.
Report yer ma December 5, 2010 4:39 PM GMT
I'm pretty sold on Showcasing but prefer the 100 limit to 120.  If its the higher I'll be looking for some change.  As an aside, this is the mare planned for Kyllachy but despite asking a month ago about a deal nobody's come back to me...business must be too good.
Report Prima Donna December 5, 2010 5:06 PM GMT
A couple of years ago we had a mare that we were thinking Kyllachy may of been a ideal choice for,so I rang Cheveley Park and after speaking to John Marsh and Chris Richardson felt sure they would get back to us......................who was I fooling neither one of them bothered to get back to us,so I left them to get on with it.Perhaps that's how they like to operate,saying that mind when we sent a mare to Pivotal (when he was in his early days)Chris Richardson was bending over backwards to help in anyway he could,nothing seemed too much trouble in those days.A pity they don't seem so keen now.
Of the new sires on show last week I reckon Showcasing has every credential needed to make it imo he could be anything,I'm told Makfi is a super looking colt,Slick seems to agree that he is at the top of his fee but still thinks he offers value with the right mare.
Mount Nelson does seem to get nice sorts but is it just me does his page suggest he will get 2y'olds?I'm not so sure.
Monsieur Bond has shown he is a capable sire and there is still a market for his stock as a cheap sire that gets good looking sorts what do you reckon?Worth a punt at a low price.
Report potentialmillionaire December 5, 2010 8:00 PM GMT
I've just spent a f''''ing hour of my life posting a f'''ing reply to this post and lost the f'''ing lot.

I'll calm down presently
Report Prima Donna December 5, 2010 8:57 PM GMT
Don't worry Pot M I've done the very same thing myself.........its so maddening!When you have calmed down and you have the time do it again I'd love to hear your views.Cool
Report potentialmillionaire December 5, 2010 9:30 PM GMT
Sorry to hear your Cheveley experiences. Not mirrored by my own, but pretty poor nonetheless. I wonder if they don't know where they'll be with Kyllachy yet - but if so they should let this be known.

I'm interested in your racial divides! I think we are quite probably a bit more circumspect sometimes. I know I am pretty roundabout (you'd never have guessed, right? Laugh). However our respective abilities to do what's necessary to get the results is a can of worms and I ain't goin' there!

I know that Whitsbury always start their 1st seasoners off with 120 mares so I guess it's just a case of whether Showcasing attracts that many in a competitive year. I liked the horse. Good depth, shoulder, walk. A commercial package. Apparently they have him at 16hh, but he wouldn't be the scopiest - a la Oasis - Happy to recommend though.

Makfi is very striking indeed. I just had this nagging thing that I would have liked a bit more emphasis on quality over solid (Deploy). Hard to describe really and I'm sure he will get a nice type. I would look to correct (who wouldn't!) quality and a good hind leg in a mare for him - it's a lot of money to get it wrong!

I liked Equiano too. Correct, Sprinter looking to me - although not a bull I agree. He doesn't walk and I'm always happy to accept jarring and wear and tear in something just out of training but I suspect it's a trait of the Acclamations? Anyway, he's a very good example of a potent (good, bad or indifferent) sireline in my view. As such there has to be a chance he'll do the same again.

Mawatheeq was a problem. Size, scope, class. Obviously not much chance of a Coventry winner then but he would look more 'handy' than Nashwan/Nayef etc. I'm very aware of what folly a trip there could be. But I'm accutely aware of the folly of being one of 170 indifferently breds too. You've got to try for an edge! Great pedigree, great looks, small book, great supporters of the product. Something to sacrifice precocious for? (Go easy on me Prima [:x])

I'd like to see Paco Boy and wouldn't write him off until then, but realistically he doesn't fit right now.

I worry about Mount Nelson. He wasn't that good in my opo amd nor is his sire also in my opo.

Monsieur Bond -if you're brave enough - needs leaving till next year perhaps as you would be following too close on tiny books of dreadful mares. Presumably if 2011 brings an upturn in mares covered then 2012/13 would be the year. Not for me though!

Now Prima. You are on a retainer (unpaid, naturally) to trip round looking at these horses. Mertoun Paddocks is only over the road! I fear we are going to have to teach you a little more discernment. Yes the cheese in Tatts tea room is expensive, but so is every other vittel in there and none of it is any good! You were too easily seduced when you should have been on the road LaughLaugh
Report Prima Donna December 6, 2010 4:09 AM GMT
Pot M,I think you would want to be 100% certain of the chances of a mare going to Makfi at 25k as you point out its a lot to risk with say just an ordinary mare.Another thing to think about when selecting stallions have you ever heard the auctioneer saying things like "here's the poor walking colt from so and so"or "the colt with the tremendously bad step to him".Stallions that are poor walkers should imo be viewed with caution esp' on their first crop as when you sell your stock could you be so sure the mares page is going to sell the thing as if its like daddy and is a poor walker?Remember a big walk is a great asset when selling as foals/yearlings.
MawatheeqShockedwell if you do want this sire then I'd start hoping Nayef turns it in and hope too Shadwell are looking for colts by this sire mind you someone like Mark Thompkins seems to like this type of sire,as doubt many other buyers will,if you do want him I'd pay no more than 2.5/3k and take a big chance.Not wanting to be one of the 170 odd mares to me says more about you mare,if she is good enough the foal/yearling will sell as buyers are more likely to take a chance than a stallion with say 50 foals on the ground out of average mares.
I hold the same view about Mount Nelson as you can't really see why people have gone for him so much!

Yes the cheese in Tatts tea room is expensive, but so is every other vittel in there and none of it is any good! You were too easily seduced when you should have been on the road........I was 'easily seduced'it didn't take much as it was so god damn cold mind you looking out of the restaurant window at all the people shivering and shacking I think I made the right decision LaughLaugh
Report potentialmillionaire December 6, 2010 2:42 PM GMT
As a 'successful' small breeder, obviously I am flushed with funding right now and I am intending to splash out a good percentage of my treasure chest. I know it seems extravagent, but if I commit say 50% of my rainy day savings I think I might just be able to come up with the price of the fee (and it better be Oct 1st terms) for a woolly hat for you Prima Donna.

I never knew times were so tough that you couldn't afford a winter coat ? Laugh

Believe me I am not keen on sacrificing a good walk for anyone, although I was much amused at Tatts this year as I was stabled opposite a nice colt foal by a hot stallion. The foal couldn't walk. End of. Well you should have seen the assorted Numptys (Agents, pinhookers, Cordelia's, Tarquins,etc etc) who thought that they could 'find' a walk. They had it all over Newmarket to get it to 'let down'! Needless to say it never did and it ended up one of the most sour foals it has been my misfortune to set eyes on. Incidentally it sold profitably but didn't fly like I guess it could've done. It's probably back in Ireland somewhere and they're chasing it across The Curragh trying to get it to 'just relax' !

Which I suppose brings me to the point - if they want you, they want you. And for that sire fashion is so much a part. I suppose I have reluctantly come to the point of acceptance that my mares are not quite as good as the Slick'n'smooth  broodmare band!Cry (indeed are anyones, but I'm not bitter. . .) so I have to accept that I cannot count on being in the top 10% of a stallions foals commercially. I do however see every  point in making that the aim and have managed to top the sires sales on a satisfactory number of occasions. Including this year LaughLaugh - now that's thrown you! If therefore you cannot be in the top 10%, but the sire has a particularly buoyant profile anyway, then having fewer lesser lights for those so determined to be trendy to fight over, has a big appeal over the 170 book horse. Being one of 30 by a stallion they like surely out ranks being one of 90? Year after year several stallions considered commercially unlikely out rank those considered nailed on. It's our job to seek them out and perhaps enjoy the advantages that their smaller book brings, no?

Although, being one of the herd sure brings with it it's comforts too Grin

Right now - and who knows what's round the corner - I feel that Shadwell are the operation most loyal to their sires. Always Nayef, Royal Applause and now Tamayuz and Haatef get a very useful topping off by Hammy. IF they continue then that is a big plus for the otherwise scary Mawatheeq.
Report Prima Donna December 6, 2010 9:43 PM GMT
I never knew times were so tough that you couldn't afford a winter coat ?

Not quite Pot'M, though if I went on about using stallions like Mawatheeq and Haatef it might just come to that! Devil

Really really kind of you to offer to buy me a hat, thing is though I have never owned a woolly hat and I am not about to start now.We are all on the lookout for the next Sir Percy and Cockney Rebel, but I don't think Mawatheeq is it. He wasn't good enough on the track even if he does stack up on paper.It is a dangerous game to breed for one buyer in mind the same as it is dangerous to breed with a trainer in mind. How many people will be booking to Paco thinking that Hannon will buy it? Mawatheeq lacks profile to be a 'sleeper' sire. At least with the Cockney Rebels buyers could say, "You know, Geoff Huffer's 2000 winner' or "Sir Percy, Derby Winner" to their potential clients. "Mawatheeq, 2nd in Champion Stakes" doesn't quite have the same ring does it?!

Incidentally do we think that the phone has been a little quieter than 'Sir John' expected at Highclere hence the tilt at the HK mile???

I suppose I have reluctantly come to the point of acceptance that my mares are not quite as good as the Slick'n'smooth  broodmare band! (indeed are anyones, but I'm not bitter. . .) so I have to accept that


Slick's mares cover all the price ranges Pot'M so I am sure your mares would stack up and be an improvement on a few of ours! My own mare has a market value of around meat price and I am always having to fight her corner at home to justify her keep. As I have said before these mares are the hardest to mate and hence why I keep coming back to mention cheaper sires. What you do need though is a good looking mare that has to move well. Sacrifices can be made for page over shape but not for conformation, movement AND page.
Report potentialmillionaire December 6, 2010 10:38 PM GMT
I've not done Haatef, Prima. Not remotely interested, but just checking up I see that every foal sold for over the stud fee and overall it was a most satisfactory start for him. And I would say he was a pretty difficult horse for folks to recall.
However I am in agreement that Mawatheeq is a step down again in terms of profile so I wouldn't go in lightly I assure you! Your comments on Sir Percy + co. make sense but their equivalents probably aren't around this time are they.
I suppose that Paco is the closest but he doesn't have Sir Percy's pedigree by any stretch. I don't know if the Earl of Pompous is worried about a lack of phone calls, but my god he should be used to it with Motivator at £8k. Shocked As we've discussed endlessly there are a lot of them around this year so with the exception of Arcano I'm sure there are a lot of phones not as live as the boys would like.

I'd sacrifice just about anything for a good looking good walking foal - don't care where the hell it comes from really! Your range of mares obviously makes you better qualified to source one than me though! But I'll keep enjoying your posts and clutch at the advice thereinBlush
Report Prima Donna December 7, 2010 10:10 AM GMT
I do however see every  point in making that the aim and have managed to top the sires sales on a satisfactory number of occasions. Including this year  - now that's thrown you!

Yes I see you have had some good results..........but is that last statement a 'red herring'[;)]Grin?
Report potentialmillionaire December 7, 2010 12:31 PM GMT
It maybe is a red herring. But it's also absolutely legit. Indeed it's been a source of much amusement as I'm sure you'll see if you look again. Laugh Laugh

However, maybe you haven't got me? [;)]

I'm not entirely sure I've nailed you either Confused
Report Prima Donna December 7, 2010 2:52 PM GMT
potentialmillionaire     07 Dec 10 12:31 
It maybe is a red herring. But it's also absolutely legit. Indeed it's been a source of much amusement as I'm sure you'll see if you look again. 

However, maybe you haven't got me?

I think I have Pot M but its only a bit of funLaugh
I'm not entirely sure I've nailed you either Confused......You may have,you seemed pretty sure who we are when you looked at Goffs sale results and poss' found the one we had got!A couple of clues I'm a lot older than you and Slick for that matter too,she is a successful breeder I'm just a business man with globle interests who spends far too much time on these forums still I enjoy talking to you and everyone else for that matter.One more Slick is not Irish or English.....could I say the same myself?
Report potentialmillionaire December 7, 2010 6:20 PM GMT
'I think I have Pot M but its only a bit of fun'

How right you are. I suspect I'm rumbled but have you worked out my 'topper' yet? It's a hoot!
Luckily I'm a pretty insignificant soul and no-one much knows me - or cares for that matter Grin

Just when I think you've moved into view out comes another curved ball and I'm left high and dry!
I seem to remember I was confident of the Goffs yearling but if I recall, it was an agent purchase so it didn't help much. Still I enjoy the chase and hope you do too. Perhaps that's the best bit!!
Report Prima Donna December 7, 2010 7:16 PM GMT
No Pot M I can't find your 'topper' which sale did you achieve that?Confused
Report potentialmillionaire December 7, 2010 7:46 PM GMT
We were both there! (just gone)
Report Prima Donna December 7, 2010 7:56 PM GMT
Got it now.........Had to get Slick to point out yours was sold the other higher priced ones were notGrinyour reference to him a while ago as the worlds worst sire was dead right!Once bitten with this sort of sire........think Mawatheeq!!!!
Report potentialmillionaire December 7, 2010 8:37 PM GMT
Listen, after that sale I'm claiming that as a result Laugh                                   At least he has gone back to the land where they appreciate you know who, so I hope he'll get a chance at a relatively better hotel Happy
It's amazing though that with all the considerations we have to factor in (and I'm most reluctant to go unproven with maidens) particularly monetary, that I find myself backed into a corner with something that is not perfect by any means
1st season is so much safer though so you can be a bit quirkier I always think, and I am only ever really relaxed with 1st season as you cannot get hung up about fashion because only the quality of those 1st crop foals will dictate that. But that mare would be a prime Showcasing candidate this time.

Incidentally, I thought you had a successful if more modest 'history' prior to the joint power house that is the current Slick/Donna set up Prima?
Report Prima Donna December 7, 2010 9:12 PM GMT
Showcasing would be a good choice. 1st season is always a safer bet and the horse himself is from such a current and fashionable sire line.

As for your last sentence Pot'M, you could be right. But as we both think we know who the other is lets keep it under our (woolly) hats eh?!
Report potentialmillionaire December 7, 2010 10:05 PM GMT
Couldn't agree more.

And I'm glad you've seen sense and got yourself a woolly hatLaugh
Report Prima Donna December 8, 2010 10:01 AM GMT
I shall send for a new woolly hat today!...........(I think I can stretch to it!!![;)])
Report RipVanWinkle December 12, 2010 7:07 PM GMT
So what are the 2011 nominations looking like, what stallions are ye using, most of the contracts must surely be signed off, although playing the waiting game can work very good aswell.
Report potentialmillionaire December 12, 2010 8:03 PM GMT
You can't really expect me to be signed, sealed, delivered can you Rip?

I'm not in Dubawi/Shamardal/Oasis category so I'm assuming there's not too much hurry!

I imagine Shadwell populars are tricky but I'm being quite relaxed. Should I be panicking? Confused

Prima Donna's swanky list should be of interest - if he's not playing hard to get Laugh

How 'bout you?
Report RipVanWinkle December 12, 2010 10:55 PM GMT
Have a couple of contracts signed so far as we were given a good deal with Coolmore we have mares booked for Montjeu, Rip Van Winkle and Starspangledbanner. Theres one mare going to each of them so far maybe one more to either Rip Van Winkle or Starspangledbanner definitely not Montjeu only the one going to him. I dont look after the contracts or finances really thats up to the father but it will probably be another month before the rest of the contracts are signed. We've got a mare going to Nayef but as far as i know the contract has not been signed. We're also looking at Lord Shanakil,Arcano(mare submitted but no word yet),Teofilo,Echo Of Light,Acclamation,Oscar,Westerner,Milan,Court Cave amongst many others. You have to be covering your mares with very good sires if you want to sell and cutting corners can bite you but chances have to be taking thats why were going using a couple of stallions with there first runners next year it paid dividends this year by using Iffraaj
Report potentialmillionaire December 13, 2010 6:38 PM GMT
That looks a nice 'balanced' list RipVan.

Montjeu should be interesting - not always the easiest commercially, but at least you've given the mare a cracking chance. Have any of your team been to see Lord Shanakill yet? I'd be interested to hear if so. I'm not one to comment on jumping matings - no real knowledge - however going through the Weatherbys Stallion Book that arrived today when I saw 12k for Presenting I nearly choked!

I suppose it's like Galileo on the flat. Bugger all chance of getting your money back if you pay full whack, but if you want to breed to race at the top, perhaps you have no choice.

Echo of Light ? There's not much chance of him doing a Dubawi you know [:o]
Report Gimcrack January 13, 2011 10:24 PM GMT
Anyone else seen this video yet? Is it me or is Paco looking very well indeed? Do any of you folks out there have any experience of negotiating deals with Mr Warren?

http://www.highclerestud.co.uk/stallions_pacoboy_video.htm
Report Gimcrack January 13, 2011 10:25 PM GMT
http://www.highclerestud.co.uk/stallion_pacoboy.htm
Report Gimcrack January 13, 2011 10:33 PM GMT
The link won't work properly. Oh well. Just go to the Highclere Stud website and you can't go wrong really. Let me know your thoughts anyway.
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