Bloodstock & Breeding
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15 Nov 10
19:50
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Date Joined:
17 Mar 10
Approve 5k Zebedee 6k
Fast Company 5k Vale of York 5k
Lord Shanakill ? Starspangledbanner ?
Equiano 8k Paco Boy 8.5k
Arcano 6k Showcasing 5k
Arabian Gleam 2k Mawatheeq 5k
Mullionmileanhour 1800?
Forgive me for and please add any missing horses, but I have attempted to compile the cheap (&ish) horses going to stud next year.
Lots of things are of interest perhaps. Firstly is there really only Makfi and Ripvanwinkle to represent the more upmarket retiree this year?
What will the trainer/agent who majors in the 1st season sire make of this? We all know the feeling when we have a nice but unexeptional horse to sell and the catalogue hits the door mat and you find said horse is one of 45 by the sire. Surely a hell of a lot of the above are interchangeable? Why will he pay a good price for my Arcano when he can wait for the nice Showcasing in the next barn or the Approve after that?
In my mind there really are too many similar horses retiring this year. Has the downturn made them more affordable to buy?
I think perhaps that the 'tired' older commercial types covering more modest books might not be totally without merit. Sure there are less buyers for their stock but the % of buyers to offspring offered could be more favourable than with the oceans of lots by the above.
If everyone has as little life as I do then please comment on the horses that are 'nailed on' (no such thing I know, I know)
and the disliked in equal measure!
Fast Company 5k Vale of York 5k
Lord Shanakill ? Starspangledbanner ?
Equiano 8k Paco Boy 8.5k
Arcano 6k Showcasing 5k
Arabian Gleam 2k Mawatheeq 5k
Mullionmileanhour 1800?
Forgive me for and please add any missing horses, but I have attempted to compile the cheap (&ish) horses going to stud next year.
Lots of things are of interest perhaps. Firstly is there really only Makfi and Ripvanwinkle to represent the more upmarket retiree this year?
What will the trainer/agent who majors in the 1st season sire make of this? We all know the feeling when we have a nice but unexeptional horse to sell and the catalogue hits the door mat and you find said horse is one of 45 by the sire. Surely a hell of a lot of the above are interchangeable? Why will he pay a good price for my Arcano when he can wait for the nice Showcasing in the next barn or the Approve after that?
In my mind there really are too many similar horses retiring this year. Has the downturn made them more affordable to buy?
I think perhaps that the 'tired' older commercial types covering more modest books might not be totally without merit. Sure there are less buyers for their stock but the % of buyers to offspring offered could be more favourable than with the oceans of lots by the above.
If everyone has as little life as I do then please comment on the horses that are 'nailed on' (no such thing I know, I know)
and the disliked in equal measure!
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"Firstly is there really only Makfi and Ripvanwinkle to represent the more upmarket retiree this year?"
Pot' M, I think this is a prime example of what I was saying on here a few days ago. The 10-20k fee bracket is the toughest commercially and where the most danger lies. Stallion masters know this as well as anyone and so they are shopping (or pricing)just below that level. Returns for both mare owner and stud can still be made and stallion studs cannot go year after year with no new sires. Hence the proliferation of sires around the 5/6k mark. Restricted books are certainly a plus point but I feel that it is a little like the 'outcross pedigree' situation, a good idea UNTIL sales time when you hear "not really covered enough to factor high on the 1st season list/ slightly unusual pedigree". However it is foolish in the extreme to have lot after lot by the same sire. It is tedious if nothing else. As for the sires above being interchangable then that is nothing new, remember the glut of Sadlers Wells sons, Green Desert sons, Danehill horses. Just cashing in on what is popular at the time "I think perhaps that the 'tired' older commercial types covering more modest books might not be totally without merit. Sure there are less buyers for their stock but the % of buyers to offspring offered could be more favourable than with the oceans of lots by the above." As you say though Pot'M, they are tired. Maybe 2 buyers for 20 horses sounds better than 30 buyers for 300 but the maths is the same. The new intake above (with notable exception, Mullionmileanhour) don't seem a bad bunch and can surely only make the tired old has-beens job even harder? Standing the new horses at 5k ish there is much better chance of making a return than an old has-been at 8K [smiley:crazy] you are brave going into the sale ring with a foal by an old hat sire that stands you in 11k against sons of hot fashionable sires that only work out at 8k inc costs. |
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Hi PM. I think Mullionmileanhour is going to be 2.5K (yes, really) and we've got to add Stimulation standing at Llety
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Apologies to Stimulation. I think on looks at least he sits ok amongst most of these.
I agree with most of your points Prima, it just feels that the above list is a bit more extreme than usual in terms of actual numbers and similarity. If the ammount of buyers of a proven sire's progeny remains constant in percentage terms then there must be a chance more of the above may flounder than we expect. Absolutely no way of quantifying this though, so I might be talking my usual b^lls. But which one will be hot? ! I want to choose the one that will spit out the beautiful foal time and again. That's sort of all that matters. Come on you geniuses, WHICH ONE  |
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Who the hell decided to stand Mullionmileanhour at that price
 ?Reckon with 2k off that price he'd still be expensive.Your right some of the new stallions may founder when stock hit the ring who knows,but one things for sure 'old has beens'will be going only one way...........backwards.Sure they will have a few buyers but if you are commercial and can take a chance then why not?yer ma the other day commented about Arabian Gleam going to stud saying it said more about your mare,perhaps it should be remembered that the covering does NOT make the mare.I want to choose the one that will spit out the beautiful foal time and again. That's sort of all that matters. Come on you geniuses, WHICH ON Good question thing is none of us have a crystal ball,only you can know what sort of stock your mare gets and then decide which won is going to get you the sort that will hopefully get you that all important GR winner. |
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This is a good debate to have but I'd suggest that Paco Boy / Equiano / Starspang are a cut above (in terms of chance of return) than most of the rest in this list. Total guesswork trying to decide which 2 or maybe 3 of the others might make the commercial grade.
Slightly off topic - anyone seen Schiaparelli? Before you all say look at Monsun sons falling on their faces - I've a old mare with a Listed son by Monsun and this could be a cheap last hurrah. |
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Yer ma, your highlighting of those 3 is pertinent. They are perhaps the weakest of most mentioned on pedigree but their profile and ability is so much stronger than the others for not much more money. Will their pedigree/sireline really hold back their chances at the sales?
I think not in the slightest. However it may have a significant effect on their ability to 'stamp' over their mates and a mixed bag of offspring will do all the holding back instead! I've got my crystal ball on order. I don't know about Schiarpelli. He was obviously a good mover but if you are taking a chance on producing a commercial sales horse for the flat market from a jumps promoted horse then you are a brave soul indeed  It's not something I would try, but it does sometimes happen.I wonder what you'll have to pay for a Shirocco this time round? I'm not saying whether he will make it but his results are good enough for a backward type. They've come to hand earlier than Monsun's do. He is such a glorious looking beast I'd love him to succeed. |
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Alfred Nobel might be for you
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yer ma,I agree with Pot'M that is indeed a very brave thing to do sending a mare to a jumping stallion as it will look very mongrel bred when you try and sell it as a flat horse.Do you not think as she has bred a listed winner by Monsun you'd be better capitalizing on that aspect by sending her to something more commercial than a son of his?As you yourself point out his sons have been very disappointing so far,imo Shirocco is playing a waiting game to become a jump sire so I'd steer clear of him if she was mine.
Pot M,Do you really think colt's like Paco Boy and Equiano are going to be more commercial than say Arcano or Showcasing and even Zebedee?Standing for the money with costs as well I reckon your return will be better than either of those two both of you seem to like,think of the hottest sires right now if you know who then you should see the answer.Equiano is a good looking horse but as has been said on other posts he has no page at all he will need to be able to upgrade your mares simply off the back of his own sire as his pedigree is utter trash a bit like Where or When remember him[;)] but then that's down to our own choices saying that mind I'll have a fiver bet that I make more money than you and what's more my outlay will be less!Rip Van,Do you know how much Alfred Nobel is going to be?Great sire great family as well bred by one of Pot Ms hero's  |
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Mongrel bred is a bit harsh. I'd be thinking about a foreign sales trip with this (german bred) mares stock anyway and a colt by Samum out of her could make good money. I admire your bullishness PD but I'd have an alternative £5 that Arcano and Zeb will cover way too many crappy mares as part of huge books and 50% wont top £10k. Not in my plans but at least mare quality will be higher and books smaller at Newsells and Highclere (imo). To finish by contradicting myself, I'd go to Vale of York but I dont want the mare to go to Ireland.
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Maybe a bit harsh Yer Ma, but not unfair I don't think? when you posted above you didn't mention anything about selling abroad and were talking about Schiaparelli not Samum. Your point about lots of crappy mares may be true in Zebedee's case but perhaps you are not aware that Arcano is limited to 90 and those are on application and approval?
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€5000 PD when i was talking to them they never said he was retiring so must have been only decided lately
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Wouldnt be doing my job if I didnt consider all viable scenarions for my mares and Schiaparelli is Samums full brother at 1/10th the fee, standing 1k+ miles closer.
I stand corrected on Arcano, black-type only and no deals I'm sure. |
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I bet one thing for sure is that Tamayuz Prima, was not on your list to get a flyer!
The 1st season commercial fashion parade will be won on style, cut and wearability. Pedigree will only be of interest to the extent that it influences looks. Dark Angel, Cockney Rebel et al were this years reminder of the inevitibility of that fact. I think that I am with yer ma on book sizes and Paco and Equiano's smaller book size is potentially worth the 3k that they cost over the 'rabble'. And then you get to add their high profile too. It's no slam dunk for the cheaper better bred lads. One thing is for sure, I wouldn't touch Zebedee with a barge pole after seeing the size of Bushrangers book this spring. Is he going to be the 1st stallion to have over 100 offspring to lose money for their breeders? Odds on I'd say. And Where or When's 2nd dam bred 2 Gr.1 winners and is a half sister to Blushing Groom's dam Prima, so maybe Danehill Dancer is as much at fault! (Actually I don't think he was a very good horse, which I suspect is where we should start there) There are a ton of good sires without conventionally good pedigrees and many more that only seem to kick into gear after the 1st sire appears, there's certainly nothing written in stone. Incidentally now that Coolmore fees are out, I reckon I might have won the guessing game! And how can I win that fiver if you don't tell me how much you 'give back' |
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I bet one thing for sure is that Tamayuz Prima, was not on your list to get a flyer!
Oh wasn't he Pot M why do you think that?If you remember when he went to stud Nayef was very popular then add into the mix he is from the family of Galileo he was always going to be popular and commercial his sale results confirm my thoughts. Book sizes are important that's where Arcano and Showcasing have a plus point as they are on limited book sizes.Commercial breeding as a rule demands two things 1,speed both Paco Boy and Equiano have this. 2 preciosity do you think Paco Boy was a good early sort?Equiano was early but winning in Spain is that going to enhance his appeal and don't forget he was wrong in his wind something on another post you were dead against,but I'll use the 'rabble' and make good money you two use the ones you both like but one things for sure it wont be me taking my stock back home or selling outside the ring. yer ma,With your theory have you ever thought about using Black Sam Bellamy?He is also a full bro' to a champion sire and half bro to Sea the Stars I know he is a jumps sire but that does not seem to put you off! |
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The joys of being unburdened with self-doubt. PotM if its at an irish stud by a hot stallion and used by commercial irish breeders, its a winner. Simple. No further discussion needed.
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Well I'm glad you're finally seeing sense yer ma. And it's not my place to comment on the source of your new found wisdom
Apologies Prima. I thought you disliked Nayef, bkwd 2yo records, £10k stud fees, Arab owned studs, Height of Fashions tribe, soft and heavy ground form. Silly me, did you send many mares? I don't mean 'the rabble' as an entirely negative slant. It's just they are all a bit indistinguishable. I'd guess that a good few of the under raced tribe wouldn't hold a candle to Equiano in terms of soundness even given his wind op after he'd won his first Gp 1. Sadly their truncated careers wouldn't confirm that. I don't expect I'll use either of the two mentioned. However,with a hypothetical great looking 1st crop for say Zebedee and Equiano, I'd be amazed that Invincible Spirit would be enough in Zebedee's favour to outsell Equiano with his popularity and profile. Ditto, Approve v Paco. The likliehood of that great looking 1st crop is what I'm always analysing. (And that includes Arcano's Doyoun! ) |
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If you had the choice, which Tally Ho sire would you use. I'm guessing not Zebedee, but what are your thoughts on Bushranger, Kodiac & Baltic King?
It's the closest stud to where my mare is kept and so very convenient. As you may remember my mare had a Baltic King colt this year and we are very happy with him, would you go back or would the risk he could be dead in the water by the time it comes to sales be too much? Kodiac has had an encouraging start and covered decent sized books so the momentum could be sustained but could he have been too popular and suffer from a lack of exclusivity? Bushranger has been given every chance by his first crop size to make it but if he doesn't hit the ground running then I could be in trouble. My head says Kodiac, my heart Baltic King and my inner flash git says Bushranger. Decisions decisions. |
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Posh, It's only a horsebox trip! Don't let it have too much influence on your stallion choice.
I would imagine that a lot of studs would throw it in if they have their own transport. I walk my mares in, and whilst I don't relish the 31/2 hours to The Royal Studs for a midnight cover, I do do it! On the Tally ho front, if you are committed, I would go for Zebedee despite my misgivings! I love 1st season and am only too aware how difficult it is to 2nd guess the prospects of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th season sire. Obviously you are aware of our bickering on book sizes and the homogeanous nature of this years retirees. Bushranger has covered too many mares. Can you imagine how many trainers will have trained a slow one by the time your yearling comes up? You though could sell as a foal though. Kodiac has made a very respectable start to his stud career but his yearling median is down from 12k last year to 8k this. I know that isn't necessarily representitive of his perceived merit, but it is an indication of just how difficult it is for a stallion to start at the bottom. So I always remind myself just how unlikely it is for an unproven (not 1st season) to come good commercially. I think Kodiac will be popular next season, so be very confident that he will go on, as otherwise you might be one of many looking to offload in 2years or so. Which brings us back to Zebedee. . . or, another Stud.  |
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Posh Paddy coolmore have some nice new stallions this year which could be worth a go. Alfred Nobel could be a nice choice not over priced but he is sure to cover a very large book of mares. Have you considered using any other stallions apart from the ones at Tally-Ho. I used Bushranger this year but i wont be sending any more to him due to the amount he has covered.
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PotM, are serious? You've done nothing but slag off Zebedee and he'd be your choice out of the Tally Ho sires?
Anyway, I'm not tied to Tally Ho, it's just I got a nice deal last time and they are very close. It's not like it's going to be me driving the horsebox, it will be one of my in-laws so I don't really want to take the piss and send them miles and miles. A 5 hr round trip to Coolmore from Westmeath would be a bridge too far. Not that I fancy anything at Coolmore in my price bracket (advertised 4-5K). Alfred Noble would be the best fit of theirs but the soft ground form puts me off. My Mare had a Choisir filly a few years ago who has won a few races in Greece. Is he coming back to Ireland? Probably would be too expensive anyway. I am open to suggestions so if anyone has any I'm all ears. Anyone used Haatef? |
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Serious indeed Posh Paddy.
I don't particularly love Zebedee for sure, but I think perhaps it is the concept of the early retiree and the profusion of similar types that has caused me most concern, on this blog, I don't think I've been quite as cruel as you imply. And remember you only gave me a choice of 4!! Also there are a great many studs who wouldn't have the horses to attract my custom. It's nothing personal but it's just lifes rich pattern and right now Tally Ho doesn't have anything that fits my bill probably. Given your location concerns isn't Arcano the one off the above list? But I really would give the in-laws a day off and pay a transporter if it means you can open up your choices. Is there a U-turn on Choisir? Cancelled through lack of interest? I wouldn't personally chase a full sibling to a Greek winner, a half by something sexier would be a better bet perhaps. My first port of call is always what would suit my mare from the knowledge I have. Then a trip to see the new guys will hopefully firm things up. Please have a look at the UK horses too and give me a hand . |
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Posh Paddy,You could take the view that though Bushranger has covered a enormous book if you do use him I'd take the chance and sell you resulting foal as a yearling as with so many on the ground and being such a good 2y'old he has a real chance of being one of the leading first crop sires and maybe Champion first season sire,but if you did make that choice then deal hard with Tony I'd try for 5k you might get him esp' as you are a client of his.
Baltic King is a great looking stallion and is just the sort we all should use as he was so tough and very consistent and retired sound and as you know is a son of the great Danetime but he has never covered big books for one reason or another,as you have a nice colt by him now if the mare was mine I would tend not to go back so soon if your foal is a good runner then perhaps then go back to him,and as Bushranger is another son of Danetime that might be helpful .I know his trainer Hughie Morrison he rated him as one of his best. Kodiac could be a dangerous horse to use next year as he has had just the one crop atm people are keen to buy his stock but that could change over the next few years he has been popular with breeders but I reckon though he has had about 120 mares this year his quality mares surely have been scarce this year(but I don't know that for sure).Zebedee!Potentialmillionaire's favourite new stallion along with the ever commercial yer ma,I think Potentialmillionaire's points are about spot on with him if you do use him I'd want to feel sure my mare has a page that will hold plenty of appeal as like has been said above he's sure to get a huge book. Could you be sure he alone is going to really sell your foal as there will be dozens on offer the choice for buyers will be endless you will need a stand out foal/page to make a worthwhile return. I'd give Haatef a miss if I were you he is very small and toes in on both,I don't know what you think but really was he good enough?If you have 5k to spend on your choice what do you think of Gay's new Oasis Dream horse Approve? Arcano is on application they are going to be very choosy with their selections and try to give him only quality mares.Would you consider sending her over to England?Showcasing will be commercial speaking to other breeders plenty of them rate him as a nice prospect.Another to think about would be Vale of York a GR1 winnig 2y'old by Invisible Spirit 5k first season. |
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**Invincible Spirit.........he is real not a ghost!**
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Prima, if I find out you've been necking the Babycham . . .
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I never drink Babycham!Do I sound like I do? |
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Don't worry, I won't tell a soul. [;)]
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That's good you will see next week because if I buy your filly I will be drinking (at you expense Tatt's champagne!)and I reckon I'd drink you under the table any-day of the week![;)]
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I'm a cheap date !!!
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Pot'M, as you can imagine I'm very very expensive!
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Thanks for the all the feedback.
My mare would probably not be good enough for Arcano, she's only a full sister to a listed winner and although she breeds winners none of them have set the world on fire. Just feel she has a good one in her - hope springs eternal. So that rules Zebedee out too as the page is not good enough. I'm not really a fan of Approve or Vale of York, call me old fashioned but I'd rather a sire who raced on from 2 to 3. If you look at the list of top 2yo sires most of them were better older than younger (excl Danehill Dancer & HRE). I'd be more interested in Camacho. I actually inquired about using him last year but they wouldn't deal on the fee. The Tally Ho O'Callaghan s were much more amenable. A trip across the Irish sea is out of the question, the mare just isn't worth it. Prima D, I take your point on Bushranger but taking a punt on him being champion 1st season sire seems a bit risky although with my mare it may be my only chance to make a good return. My criteria is quite tight and I'm just trying to see if there is a glaringly obvious choice I've missed. |
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Your going to find it hard to get a stallion for the mare unless you travel. Coolmore have some nice horses around the €5000 mark but some are coming into tough seasons. Maybe Lord Shanakil might suit you he's a first season sire who was a group 2 winning 2 year old by a promising sire in the States. I'm not sure how he's going to get on mares wise but it wont be restricted. Maybe Intense Focus he was a Group 1 winning 2 year old has been well received by Giants Causeway from a nice family.
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I'm glad someone has brought up Lord Shanakill.
He doesn't appear on the INS website, but I see he is in the brochure. I know Prima Donna doesn't think his profile is right for our scene and I definitely think he has a point. He does come from a 'proper' family though, he made a bob or two as a yearling, was sound and ran his race on a number of occasions. They've been brave enough to put a photo up which shows him a bit ordinary/faultable but likeable in a way, too. I would definitely like to take a look at him as he wouldn't be without a chance IF ofcourse he seems likely to be able to produce in the beauty parade stakes. Well done for avoiding Camacho at full price Posh Paddy. Can you imagine what Gay would do if he wasn't offered a deal? Talk about double standards. Did the horse have Hasili and Zarkava already booked? |
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We have a mare going to him next year potm. He is a very classy mare are most of her offspring. She comes from a nice family with plenty of speed and i would be hoping for a nice two year old. Lord Shanakil should not be written off as he was a good two year old trained on to win a group 1 at three and a group 2 at four. He comes from a very good family but i'm not sure will the national stud get the mares that he needs to ensure he will become a good stallion he has the credentials though. Somethign you like potm is that he was tough and retired sound
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They've been brave enough to put a photo up which shows him a bit ordinary/faultable but likeable in a way, too.
Well that does make him sound great!I'd be very careful just what my mare was like,she would need to get very good looking sorts as sending him a average looking mare will result in only one thing a ordinary/faultable foal that grows on to become just an average yearling.........Yep great idea! |
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Posh Paddy,Just a quick one to run past you but have you thought about using Intikhab?Not too far from you has done reasonably well and his stock do sell relatively well at the sales.For the money (think he is 5k)I don't think he'd be too bad a choice.Thinking about it given your budget and travelling distance range he'd be my choice.
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Intikhab...and I'm the one who doesnt think commercially. Median 2008 6k, 2009 8k, only higher this year because top THREE lots were full brothers to decent horses. Ignore the figures and tell me I'm wrong - go on.
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yer ma, I won't tell you you are wrong,but as Posh Paddy's brief is small both in terms of fee and distance what would you come up with then?If you look on the Racing Post site and check out Intikahb's sale returns they are not too bad and full bro's to decent horses proves he can get a good runner.
He is not on my list to use but with such a limited brief I can't see why not. |
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Its the mans choice but crikey its only 50 miles to Kildare. Take your pick. I'm usually £1k a mare down before I even start due to location. Jeremy could be got for 5k - he's my shout for a Danehill line taking off next year.
To lighten the mood, on Intikhab (who I have no beef with at all in fact my wifes ridden one of his best) - you'd think Derrinstown would make a bit more effort...this comment is lifted from their website today 'He also went close to Group 1 glory with Lexlenos and Les Fazzani while his promising two year olds include the dual Group placed Snow Fairy' |
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I agree with you about Jeremy I too think he might just do it,I've seen lots of his stock and I'd say they are nice sorts,I am going to look at a few of his this coming week and may get one.
its not just Derrinstown who need to make more effort with their website its lots of studs,but Christ if that's what they have on theirs its frankly pathetic!yer ma don't take offence at my stupid comments which were directed at you above as you know I can shoot my mouth off its not the first time and most likely won't be the last,I hope I didn't upset you but if I did then please accept my full apology. |