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Just seen this, nice work tlp.
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any thoughts today lads on the n/ket maidens .
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have to run lads i like
nafura e/w 1.20 n/ket. pink symphony 1.50 n/ket. mushreq/haatheq 2.55 n/ket. treble jig 3.30 n/ket |
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Absolutely p!ssing it down there right now! Didn't fancy anything in the maidens but I fancy Missionaire in the Nursery, should be OK off 82. The maiden he won 2nd 3rd and 4th are rated 100+.
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ben what do you think of tukitinyasok today 2.50 n/ket
i dont think he handled chester and i think 7f is much better for him i give him a good chance and is worth a few quid at 33/1 . |
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3:40 War
Amanda Perrett FTO'r beats fancied osses from Stoute, Meehan, Godo. Couldn't have got that in million years FTO for that trainer. |
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Will watch the race in a bit but if she's got a first time out winner then that horse will be well worth following, very nicely bred horse who will want a mile to 10f next year. Dahaam's got a beautiful pedigree and he may find a race. Easy to say now but the Stoute thing has quite a stout pedigree and although they got away with 7f on heavy at Leicester the quicker ground may have cost him. I'd be looking for a step up in trip next time. The 4th may be interesting if turned out quickly in a Nursery over a mile. Like I say I haven't seen the race yet so all that could be rubbish :)
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Just watched it, looks to have a bit of muscling up to do so should improve, an interestng one anyway, nice spot. Definitely think the 4th will pick up a Nursery over a mile so I'll be looking out for that..
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Ta Ben. She just had another winner. Not a 2yo though.
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Five Cents (Exceed & Excel), 3rd in 2:00 Eps should win NTO, but no doubt odds will be prohibitive.
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2:00 Don
Ransom Note by Red Ransom out of a Polish Precedent mare. Will this not like the GF ground ? |
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Hi PHS, backed anything today?
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Hi Ben,
No, layed the winner in that ^race. You ? |
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I didn't fancy that either tbh. Not a lot today really, Donny card looks pretty standard grade. Epsom quite interesting, thought Ettrrick Mill might go well in the maiden at 4:30 if he takes to the track, don't think he's far behind in terms of ability. Also a few Northern Trainers have come all the way down to Epsom with some interesting contenders, Richard Fahey's Prince Picasso is entitled to run well off his mark if Fahey's got him right, was some early money but drifted back out but it is a long way to bring a horse just to get him fit. Also Mick Easterby's Upton Sea's is well in from it's last run. Think the other days at Donny will be more interesting.
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Yeah, that Fahey switcher did catch the eye. Recent form (NH) looks rubbish, but if you go back to it's last few runs with SMP, went quite well at that trip.
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this trip
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PHS 09 Sep 15:45
Strike The Deal That's better (posted HR forum (St Leger week fred) just before off, as only matched at 6.2 late). |
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Great ride from Fallon that one, can't knock him for that.
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PHS 31 Aug 17:16
Five Cents (Exceed & Excel), 3rd in 2:00 Eps should win NTO, but no doubt odds will be prohibitive. Runs 2:45 Eps tomorrow. No price as predicted. Beaten a fair way o debut, further than it sounded on the commentary. |
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There's actually an argument for evens being value just because it's such a p!ss poor maiden. Didn't see the race last time but if he could have got to the second (with a decent break) then that probably puts him clear of the others in this race.
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hi guys like a few today .
BATTLEMAIDEN 6.35 kempton i think it could make all and bin suroor horses in much better form now kemton for me runs like a firm ground surface and i think this is what she needs. TANOURA 3.45 doncaster will bounce of this fast ground extra trip will suit as well cant see past this one. DRESSED TO DANCE 3.30 Chepstow the ground is now on the fast side there and it only has gift horse to beat and im not sure the fav will handle this ground . any thoughts lads . |
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Good work PHS ;)
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ta Ben
PHS 10 Sep 14:46 Lost me head. Backed Five Cents at 2.18 here. Laid off double stake at 1.11, so all green by the time there was any doubt. |
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Tlp, I'll look out for yours, couldn't decide between the two Aga Khan horses at Donny so I left it. Like Tanoura's Leocorno form though.
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Nice one, stewards so good job you're all green ;)
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Decent price in the end after being 2.18. Did you take any ?
Make slightly more if it were to get thrown out here, Lol. |
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the lay preacher 10 Sep 14:23
hi guys like a few today . TANOURA 3.45 doncaster will bounce of this fast ground extra trip will suit as well cant see past this one. Yeah, Oxx coming over with fillies in a listed/group races usually = winner. Quite short though. |
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PHS 10 Sep 14:53
Decent price in the end after being 2.18. Did you take any ? Make slightly more if it were to get thrown out here, Lol. Doh ! Meant to say; Decent price at 2.18 in the end after being 1.8. Did you take any ? |
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Had a little, not much though. Think you got to take a bit if you think it's value, probably worth following in a Nursery next time the way he ran.
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2:55 San 8f Mdn
Botanist is hard to oppose for this. Godolphin's recent record is excellent with 2yo, even FTO, but there must be a chance Zeitoper, by Singspiel and a brother to Gp1 Eastern Anthem may not place FTO on soft gound, so the possibility of playing the place market appeals. Charlton's Pivotal may have a good chance, but the trainer is 3 times more succesful 2TO than FTO, but still a chance of a place looks prominent. The one I like at a bigger price, Mawaddah, showed nothing FTO, but that (6f) may have been an inadequate trip. Intikhab's have a very good place record 2TO, especially on Soft. |
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Btw, I'm only learning this 2yo Mdn stuff, so this is all guesswork. Hoping for some guidance from you good people who started this thread.
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Missed the race but see the distance is a nose, gutted mate :(
Think you nailed your analysis though, although looks like the market had it right so perhaps no value in there. |
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Didn't lay the winner Ben, although I left 3 up for about 20secs IR. Can't believe I didn't look at Eastern Anthem's record. Won FTO on soft. Elementary mistake.
Mawaddah went 1.8 (from 5.x pre-race) IR. |
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It's an interesting one because he doesn't have any big entries (even the Derby?) so most would look at that as a reason to take him on. I wouldn't have been keen on taking odds on just because he's a full brother to a Group 1 winner unless I've been told he's good or I've seen him on the gallops and looks like backers just got away with it in this case.
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Some nice maidens today. One I like the look of at a price is Dever Dream in the first at Newmarket. Real speedy two year old pedigreeparticularly on the dam side with plenty of the dam's siblings showing precocity to win first time out (including forum favourite Firebreak ;) ). Would probably be more confident if she was backed a bit but today's jockey is an interesting booking, I can't see him putting in a schooling ride anyway. I'd expect Brian Meehan's second time out one to place as well.
Timepiece is interesting in the next race but she's far too short in the market. Sister to Passage of Time and Father Time means she will probably want further later on but both of these are by Dansili who must add class and the rest of her siblings haven't reached such levels (which her price today implies she will). Best one to take her on with that I can find is Miss Miracle who should get placed at least. Any thoughts? |
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Thanks Ben. Not had time to look at Nby/New yet.
Ayr 1:50 Green Lightning, by Montjeu out of an exc mare may have a chance of upsetting the fav. Ayr 2:20 Thistlestar seems short considering sires 2yo record. Huntingfortreasure may be the answer. |
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Dever Dream down to 6.0 IR. Passing Glance seems to be doing well.
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and WD with Sophie's placing.
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Yeah not really seen any profit out of it but happy that I was on the right trial overall. Haven't watched the first at Newmarket yet but looks like she ran a big race. Wouldn't get the first time out Balding horse, was hoping to follow that next time :(
See your pick beat Thistlestar, shame about the fav :( |
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I actually managed to miss the race (trying to look at later races, and momentarily forgot). I left 26 and 4.6 to place up on the 2nd. The 26 matched at 14:20, the place didn't (only went 4.2). Just me being greedy, but I intended bringing the 4.6 down. Also layed Thistlestar for a small amount.
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