|
By:
I have been keeping 2-y-o sire stats for going and distance since 2001.
These are v.useful in backing winners for this age group as they are often different to the perceived bias. Also when laying fav's they are a great guide. Anybody interested in these? |
|
By:
brad give me a couple of examples of the percieved bias.
|
|
By:
Pivotal is regarded by the press as a sire that needs good going or softer but he's record with 2-y-o's gets a thumbs up with me on GF and Firm.
Firm 4-17 GF 28-181 I use a binary system with my ratings and these are definitely a +1 Piccolo is regarded as a Good and GF sire but his record on Good going with 2-y-o's is appalling 7-217 which is on my system -1 The same also applies to distances with Cape Cross having a better record over 5f than u would expect 19-103 - this gave me Brambleberry at Lingfield on Monday Basically by having stats for only 2-y-o's I have a better picture of a 2-y-o newcomer than is given in the Racing Post |
|
By:
knew about pivotal m8 .
cape cross is probably down to the fact that so many 2yo s especially earl on in their careers dont really stay 5 furlongs. the piccolo one has me scratching my head though. but very interesting all the same. |
|
By:
Lay Preacher if u r interested I will put up my ratings at lunchtime tomorrow for the Salisbury '2-y-o race on Weds
|
|
By:
Excellent work you two, thanks
|
|
By:
yeah do that brad.
|
|
By:
2.10 Salis
Going is the first figure and dist the second No.2 :+1 0 No.3 : 0 0 No.4 : 0 0 No.5: +1 +1? No.6: 0 0 The form of No.7 I rate as 0 0 which in my book means it has the form to win a class 4 but is not a certainty. The newcomers are an interesting bunch with No.5 the pick. The ? for dist is because Oasis Dream has not had as good a start over 6f this year with this his third crop of 2-y-o's and u have to be wary of quality of mares in 3rd and 4th crops. I will have a small bet on this one with a larger bet on the form horse if I can get 7-4 or more. |
|
By:
If u want to pick a race for me to rate just choose one.
|
|
By:
the two that will handle the fast ground best are forest crown and filwa.
whether they are good enough is another matter. because of the undulations at salisbury i think it ia a very hard job for a tyo to win 1st time out but because only 2 of them have had a run it is certainly possible. i would be worried about oasis jade handling fast ground as although oasis dream in general like fast ground the damsire is last tycoon is last tycoon which is a big influence for soft ground horses. i always think the damsire in a lot of cases is an even bigger influence than the sire. |
|
By:
interesting thoughts - lay preacher.
Don't disagree with them its just my method concentrates on the sire. Best wishes |
|
By:
i used to just concentrate on the sires as well brad but there were some results that just didnt make sense until i started on the damsires
then it all fell into place. |
|
By:
whats your views on the first at carlisle brad.
|
|
By:
Newcomers
No.1: 0 0 No 4: 0 0+ No 6: +1 -1 Not a lover of any of the newcomers and expect one of the experienced ones to win of whom I have Merseyside Star narrowly in front. Not a race I like at all |
|
By:
cheers m8 not a race ill be playing in either.
|
|
By:
how do you interpret this?
"Don't disagree with them its just my method concentrates on the sire." presumably the author also drives his car with one eye closed and cooks his meals with half the ingredients missing. |
|
By:
How many first time out winners does Gary Moore get? She looked quite burly as well and will probably be tee'd up for a nursery imv.
|
|
By:
Gorgeousgeorge
My method makes me money but lay preachers ideas may well have some effect on my thinking in the future. Waht is wrong with learning? Insults are just cheap and don't encourage people on here to discuss theire views. |
|
By:
ben 10
I think u r right. He ran green but showed enough to me to win a small nursery over 6f |
|
By:
2 year old races are always hard to bet on, if you're on course there's probably an advantage I guess but if you make it pay then good luck can definitely find some nice prices and if you follow horses through it can yield nice returns. I remember seeing Azif on her debut on Craven day and she looked terrible and her odds backed that up but ran what I thought was a big race, dotted up from a bad draw next time out.
|
|
By:
whats the shout today brad.
|
|
By:
What race are you looking at tlp?
|
|
By:
The only race I am interested in today is 2.15 Warw as I hate Newcastle and their inconsistent watering
No1 : 0 0 No 2: +1 0 Reddy to Star is the fav and I would be taking it on with the 2 newcomers as to me he runs like a sitting duck and I like the trainers of the 2 newcomers as well as the stats. Also No 5 and No 6 are not w/o a chance so I will lay the fav as well |
|
By:
6 is interesting on her debut run (winner won the Albany) but is another stable which I don't trust. She gets some nice allowances though. Not a fan of the Dascombe thing but the early money is noted because everyone in Lambourn seems to know if he's got a 2 y o capable of winning. Fav ran well from a bad draw at Chester but the 2nds don't inspire confidence and Clive Cox isn't going as well as he had been. Henry Candy still owns his horse so will be looking to get a win so he can find an owner for him. Not going to have a bet but an intereting race.
|
|
By:
the problem with the fav brad could be its out of an alzao mare
which is a big influence for soft ground which it has not had yet which could be why it keeps getting run out of it so you will probably be correct in taking the fav on . unless of course they have overwatered. i wont be playing in this race but good luck m8. |
|
By:
In laying on the favourite you've probably found the only possible bet of the race, neither of us can fault your reasoning so good luck.
|
|
By:
good call brad.
|
|
By:
Yeah nice work mate. That drift on the Candy horse was interesting. I didn't get look of them going to post but I assume he played up or was a bit big. Be interesting next time out perhaps. Also most jockeys went away from the rail (overwatered probably) but Dane stayed there.
|
|
By:
Thanx lads.
Ben - Totally agreed with your views on the Candy horse. Went a bit green to post and was definitely running on the slowest ground. |
|
By:
what are you looking at today brad.
|
|
By:
Due to the showery nature of todays weather I will concentrate on Doncaster this afternoon and Newmarket tonight. will post conclusions around 1.00
|
|
By:
Had a look at Doncaster with confusing results - a definite no play 4 me
2.20 No2,4,5&8 have all shown enough to win a small fillies maiden but w/o being convincing. The two newcomers No3: 0 +1 No6: 0 +1 look ok at first glance but No3 comes from a dam family that does better with age especially Bishops Court and Astonished who I remember from quite a few years ago. No 6: Stable is not brilliant at present and I understand this filly is quite small and they were looking to get her to the course before now. 4.00 - no view except Avon River won one of the poorest class 4 maidens run this year. Newmarket to come |
|
By:
Newmarket 6.00
Weak race on paper with the 3 that have run looking poor. Newcomer ratings: No2: 0 -1 No5: +1 +1? No6: ? ? No7: 0 +1 No 9: 0 0 No 5 is the choice for me but at around 5-2 not great value. Lay preacher - do u have any views u on No 6 and why Eddie Ahern is riding No.7. No.9 Has been delayed getting to the racecourse as he was expected to run in early May. Bit of a boring day betting wise. |
|
By:
was out all day brad couldnt reply to your thread .
what race are you looking at today. |
|
By:
Rain spoilt the Newm race so u picked the right day to go out.
Today the race I am concentrating on is the 2.30 Wind This morning MR David has been well backed but I am interested in two other newcomers as I think Bridge Valley and Slice's from is far from unbeatable. No2: +1 +1 No4: 0 +1 No6: 0 0 No7: ? ? No8: 0 0 No9: 0 0 No11: 0+1 No11 discounted as normal jockey not riding it - he has chosen No 9. No2 and No 4 the most interesting and the ones I will be backing. No4 especially as the connections love this horse and No 7 has made the market. |
|
By:
really tricky race brad having a run under your belt counts for a lot when you go to windsor even though it doesnt look great form.
if the ground stays good to firm the horse among the principles i would be worried about handling it would be san jemeniano. the horse you are backing should love the ground brad. good luck m8 |
|
By:
Thanx - I agree with your comments about a run and San Jemeniano. Luckily have backed Dorback at 10-1 so I will lay off some of it.
Know v.little about Sky Mesa's 2-y-o's - any thoughts? Thanx for this interaction it helps me formulate my views |
|
By:
sky mesa has belong to me as a damsire which normally means they
will handle fast ground . a lot of the u.s.a. breds usually do. |
|
By:
thanx
|
|
By:
My view fwiw. Quite like Dorback, with a good sprint trainer and got all the entries you like to see for a speedy 2 y o. Also like Slice, shaped well on debut in a hot maiden with plenty of subsequent winners and entitled to step up on that, 11/1 looks a fair price. Worry is the Meehan thing's being backed like defeat's out of the question but I like to let his have a run sometimes. The Hannon thing is repsected because of his trainer and he's got course experience, usually over bet though. Not a lot else catches the eye apart from Flaming Miracle who's by the Bloodstock and Breeding favourite Firebreak. Not a fan of the dam's breeding though, in fact I'm amazed they even tried breeding with her!
|