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push
19 Feb 10 07:25
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Date Joined: 25 Jun 04
| Topic/replies: 804 | Blogger: push's blog
We are on the correct forum for this subject now.
The question asked was " where will Workforce get the speed from in his pedigree to win the 2000 Guineas " ?
The very same question could of been asked about his sire Kings Best, by Kingmambo , out of a mare who is a full sister to a German St Leger winner. Indeed Kings Best himself is half brother to an Arc winner Urban Sea.
Another example of a Mr P sireline stallion , out of a stout N.Dancer line mare is Twice Over ( this one bugs me as i backed him at massive odds for the 2000 G ). It must have been his class that allowed him to win over 1m 2f as a 2yo, because he has not won over further since.Twice Over came out as a 3yo and won the Craven Stakes beating Ravens Pass in the process, then incredibly they went to the Dante to follow the Derby route instead of going for the Guineas, after the Dante they decided he would not stay the Derby trip, and dropped him back to 1 mile for the St James Palace.
Stubbs Art who Twice Over beat in the Zetland stakes , went on to finish 3rd in the Guineas , so the form was confirmed.
Back to Workforce, the maiden race he won was probably not that good a race but from the worse draw possible Workforce won and watching the race Workforce hit the front at the 6f marker, so imho i think Workforce does show speed whether he is good enough to win the Guineas is another question. He will need to make plenty of improvement, and progress from 2 to 3 years.
But it is not impossible given past performances of M.Stoutes horses.
Golan once raced maiden winner as a 2yo wins the 2000G on his next start.
Tarten Bearer, 2nd in his only race as a 2yo, then wins the Dante and 2nd in the Derby.
Kings Best after the Guineas had to miss the Derby due to a slight setback, and then pulled up on his next start in the Irish Derby, this is why i believe Stoute is taking his time with Workforce as he too may be fragile ?
Anyway there is lots to look forward to , bring it on !

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Replies: 89
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 10:36
Tamayuz, high class miler from a few yars ago by Nayef ( 11.0 f ), his dam is from the family of Urban Sea, Galileo ,Kings Best, when sent to the Mr P sire line perhaps they get milers ?
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 13:38
The closest Mr P line has come to winning the Derby was the mighty Hawk Wing ( 2nd ).
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 14:35
The mighty Dubai Millennium, by Seeking The Gold ( Mr P line ), was out of a ND line mare that won over 14f at Grp2 level yet DMillennium turns out to be a miler as a 3yo.
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 14:40
Do think you could be on to something about King's Bests with stoutly bred mares, seems a definite pattern of them not seeing out 12f.
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 14:43
:)
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 14:43
Look out Ben , i am working on foaling dates for the Derby !
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 21:05
Well Ben10, seeing how you are the only one on this forum, do you think Workforce is going to get the Derby trip ?
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 21:20
I'm not sure, haven't had a really good look through but King's Best with staying dam sires doesn't yield strong stayers from a quick glance. Thing is I like combining pedigrees with race evidence and he needed to be asked to keep up wth the field in his maiden so you could argue a mile at 3 might be difficult for him plus he kept going for a long way after the line, that said maybe he just didn't get what was going on. If I was to say he was a 10f horse at 3 I think they may get away with the Derby trip because there seems more and more speed bred into Derby horses (Authorized, New Approach and Sea The Stars all best at 10f) and classy horses can cope with the extra distance to a point. Also I can envisage a relatively slow pace as St Nicholas Abbey's turn of foot would be well suited to that (like at Donny) so there won't be an O'Brien pacemaker if Ballydoyle want SNA to win which will also suit Workforce if he does have doubts.
One thing I'm pretty sure on is he's something to look forward to this year.
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 21:26
The Goodwood run was his first race, so although he needed to be pushed along to keep up , i am hoping it was 1, Because he was green , 2, Being trained by M.Stoute i dont believe he would have been tuned up for his debut run.
But i could easily be wrong about that.
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 21:31
I think that's a fair point and got to be taken under consideration.
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 21:39
Must admit, all things considered, that 20/1 looks tempting for the Guineas, his chance of coping with a mile and potential class makes him shorter in my book, in particular when the hype builds (only the 2 and half months to go!).
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 21:52
A word of warning Ben, i also thought that Stoutes 2yo from a few years ago Confront was going to be a good 3yo, had a complete disasterous season at 3, they gelded him and won FTO as a 4yo at 10-1, and since then he has done nothing but improve.
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 21:55
Confront definitely had mental problems, remember him dogging it against Mac Love at Epsom, think they sorted him out in the end but obviously too late. Not sure you should significantly build that into a horses price unless he's shown signs of that which Workforce certainly hasn't.
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 21:59
I think Stoute will aim Confront or Zacinto at the the 1 mile Lockinge Stakes ( their owner sponsers the race i think ).
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 22:03
Will they have Rip to take them on in that do you think?
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 22:06
Yes if they can get him ready in time. But i expect he will be a short price if he turns up.
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 22:09
Oh yeah, people will latch on to the Hawk Wing comparisons!
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 22:12
O Brien, had that Aus horse in the race 2 years ago was near fave then drifted out to about 8-1 , so we knew he was not ready / fully tuned for the race.
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 22:17
Yeah remember that, won the Queen Anne next time out. Haradsun was it?
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 22:22
That s right, then retired.
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 22:30
Yeah, is he covering this breeding season do you know? I know they wanted him to go back to Oz for their breeding season.
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 22:31
covering here
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 22:32
By that F.Pegasus, paid alot of money for that horse, has been disappointing at stud really.
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 22:38
Yeah down to $15k, sure he was loads higher than that in the past. Has a 2 year old out of Makybe Diva to come this year though which is quite surprising, she went to Encosta De Lago the following year and Galileo the year before!
I think he's best trying to get sprinters, possibly been bred with wrong type of mares.
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 22:41
How much did they pay for him ?
By:
push
When: 19 Feb 10 22:44
Was it 30 million dollars ?
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 22:46
Double that
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 22:47
In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus was sold to Irish breeder Coolmore Stud for a reported price of more than US$60 million (£35m). The previous record for a stallion prospect was US$40m (£24m), paid in 1983 for Shareef Dancer. For several years, Fusaichi Pegasus served as a "shuttle stallion" standing at Coolmore's Ashford Stud near Versailles, Kentucky during the Northern Hemisphere breeding season and at Coolmore Australia near Jerrys Plains, New South Wales during the Southern Hemisphere breeding season, but as of the 2010 breeding season stands exclusively in Kentucky.
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 22:49
Found an article from 2006 that says he was covering for $150000, to be 10% of that now is quite embarrassing
By:
ben10
When: 19 Feb 10 22:50
Can't win them all I guess :D
By:
push
When: 20 Feb 10 06:15
At the price they paid , it does not make economic sence, especially as he was an unproven sire.
By:
push
When: 20 Feb 10 17:46
Smart Strike , a sire from the Mr Prospector line that does get 1m4f horses ( 11.7 f) stamina index.
By:
Eont
When: 21 Feb 10 22:28
Smart Stikes stamina index is down to af ew runners and Tungeston Strike who was by a Generous mare. Though he did sire English Channel (Theatrical mare) but he seemed best at 11f on that tight track he won the BC race on.
By:
ben10
When: 21 Feb 10 22:33
I can't work out how the stamina index is calculated, was looking at a maiden tomorrow and Oratorio has a stamina index of 9.7; considering he's not had any fully developed 3 year olds how do they know that's the optimum trip of his progeny?
By:
push
When: 22 Feb 10 05:45
Yes Ben , i had spotted the stamina index for Oratorio ( strange ).
By:
push
When: 22 Feb 10 05:56
No Derby for Workforce !
By:
Equimine.co.uk
When: 22 Feb 10 07:39
Another "Index" I don't like for two reasons, it doesn't measure performance and assumes once again only the sire counts in the equation.
I believe Stamina Index and Average Winning Distance are the same thing. Therefore, it is based on number of wins not the performance.So a horse winning a 5 furlong "seller" or " low grade auction maiden" will affect the SI or AWD. But coming second in the Dewhurst say won't.
By:
push
When: 22 Feb 10 11:42
How can the average winning distance of Oratorios stock be ( 9.3 f) when he has no ( or not many ) runners over that far a distance ?
By:
ben10
When: 22 Feb 10 13:30
Agree push, makes no sense; Shamardal's is 6.7 which is also rubbish
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