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Out of bed at 5am and on the road from Lancashire to Epsom by 5:30. Well, that's the plan for Friday morning and there is plenty to mull over on the journey.

First, why do Godolphin not seem to realise that the problem within their vast, sprawling empire simply doesn't lie with jockeys?

Second, is it time that Coolmore started emulating the Vatican by issuing a puff of white smoke from the Ballydoyle chimney in order to herald the final revelation of eagerly awaited running and riding plans?

And third, what will win the featured Investec Oaks at 16:05?

On balance, I suspect that The Fugue is the one to focus on at the top end of the market with Shirocco Star appealing as a lively type among the longshots.

It's hard to predict who will go off favourite between The Fugue and Maybe and there was precious little between the pair on their sole previous encounter in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket four weeks ago.

Maybe just had the edge on that occasion behind a rampant stablemate in Homecoming Queen, but The Fugue gets the vote on this occasion for the simple reason that she has been seen in action again since and left the strong impression that she's thriving when dancing away with York's Musidora Stakes.

Granted, The Fugue faced a small field that day and her main market rival Twirl is probably a little way down the Ballydoyle batting order, but the way she powered through the race before bounding well clear was impressive.

A low draw in a biggish field will mean William Buick has to be alert early, but The Fugue is bred to progress again over a mile-and-a-half and she's the main choice with a small interest on the stoutly-bred Shirocco Star to build on a highly promising return to action at Newbury.

The other two horses I'm interested in this Friday are Worthadd in the 14:50 and Stand To Reason in the 14:15.

Stand To Reason faces a rematch with Resurge, having been pipped by his rival in a humdinger of a finish to a Chester handicap.

Resurge will be dangerous again given that he's 2lb lower in the weights than when winning this race last year, but Stand To Reason is still on the upgrade and has the valuable assistance of Ryan Moore again as he bids to continue on his upward curve.

The case for backing Worthadd in the Diomed Stakes is simple and rests on the old fashioned belief that he is probably just the best horse at the weights.

High class in Italy and a fine second to Canford Cliffs in last year's Lockinge at Newbury, he made a fine start for new handler Sir Mark Prescott by winning a German Group 3 recently and his freewheeling style should make him hard to peg back here.

Recommended Bets
Back The Fugue and lay off at 1.5 in-running in the 16:05
Back Shirocco Star and lay off at 6.0 in-running in the 16:05
Back Stand To Reason and lay off at 3.0 in-running in the 14:15
Back Worthadd @ 2.06 in the 14:50

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

The favourites

Spain (3.9)

You can't argue with their status as favourites when we consider that the reigning European and World Champions have almost the same squad as they did when they won those two tournaments. But therein lies part of the problem. Almost. The absences of Carles Puyol and David Villa are two hammer blows to their chances because those are perhaps the two areas they could least afford to lose players. Fernando Torres comes into the tournament under-played and pretty unhappy with life, Fernando Llorente was excellent over two legs against Manchester United but anonymous in the Europa League final so maybe he can't handle the biggest stages just yet. I'm not sure this business of playing without a recognised striker such as Cesc Fabregas as the player the furthest forward - a 'false number nine' as the jargon goes - actually works.

History is against them as well, of course. No side has ever defended their crown as European champions. We're laying them.

Germany (4.2)

There's a lot to like about this team. They made the final back in 2008 and were beaten in the semis by the eventual winners, in 2010. So it looks like they're vulnerable to Spain but maybe not the rest of the field.

They have goals throughout the team and that's a big plus but recent winners of Euros and World Cups have tended to be very strong at the back rather than upfront, none more so than Greece in 2004.

But Markus Theil is right in wondering about the psychological damage caused to the Bayern Munich players in this side, after they lost the Champions League final despite completely dominating the game. The Dortmund players who won the double this season may be on a high just now but then again they're not the senior players who the rest of the team will turn to for inspiration. And, whisper it quietly, but Germany aren't shoo-ins to qualify from their group.

Netherlands(8.4)

The Andy Murray of football betting? Well, not quite because at least The Orange have actually come good once, in 1988. But like the Scot, they have all the weapons on paper to go all the way but just don't. Maybe they don't really believe they can.

The strength is obviously in attack because as Onno tells us, their defence is no great shakes. But Robin van Persie looked tired towards the end of the season, we never know which Arjen Robben is going to turn up while Klaas Jan-Huntelaar may be destined to be a prolific goalscorer at a level just below this, but not quite good enough to star when the pressure is really on.

I think it's close but no cigar once again.

The dark horses

England(13.0)/France(12.5)/Portugal(20.0)

There are plenty of similarities between the first two; they're in the same group, an almost identical price to win the whole thing and look to be teams in transition who may well be very good in two years' time. But England are too short as I've said already and France may be that little bit too over-reliant on Karim Benzema for goals - remember, he had a poor Euro 2008 and missed out on the 2010 World Cup altogether. Though all things considered, that may have been a good thing. Just like England, a narrow quarter-final exit at the hands of a slightly better team looks to be on the cards.

Portugal are a far more unadventurous side than some think and in this case, that may not be a bad thing. You don't win knock-out matches by destroying the opposition, you win them by protecting a one goal lead. But we can't escape the fact that in Cristiano Ronaldo they're far too over-reliant on a player who far too often has gone missing when representing his country at major tournaments. God knows why, because it's not like he doesn't enjoy the limelight.

Italy (15.5)

A betting scandal in the build-up to the tournament and no real big stars in the team. Haven't we been here before? And didn't it work out last time, back in 2010? The fact that Juventus players dominate the defence is no bad thing. It's more than likely that Gianluigi Buffon may have Giorgio Chiellini, Andrea Barzagli and Leonard Bonucci in front of him and they didn't do too badly as a unit this season. The midfield looks in good shape too with the genius that is Andrea Pirlo, the all-round skills of Daniele de Rossi and the ever-improving Claudio Marchisio. Personally I probably wouldn't have taken Mario Balotelli to the tournament at all but if he can be erratic, immature, selfish and impossible to manage, he can also be brilliant, brave and a genuine match-winner. Antonio Cassano and Toto di Natale are outstanding alternatives if Cesare Prandelli doesn't want to risk the Manchester City striker.

Italy seem to handle pressure better than most and have a good recent record in penalty shoot-outs, which are likely to come into play at some stage. They tick enough boxes to carry our money. Back them.

The outsider

Russia(28.0)

We should have an outsider in here because Denmark (1992) and Greece (2004) proved that in a tournament where you play six matches to win it, it's possible for a seemingly weaker team to peak sufficiently over that period to give themselves a chance of going all the way.

It makes sense for that outsider to be Russia. Firstly, because they have a really good chance of making the quarters seeing as they're in by far the easiest group. Secondly because they made the semis four years ago. Thirdly, because they have a highly an experienced manager in **** Advocaat and lastly because in Pavel Pogrebnyak and Aleksandr Kerzhakov they have just the sort of streaky strikers who could go on a good scoring run over the course of three weeks.

Lay Spain @ 4.0

Back Italy @ 15.5

Back-to-lay Russia @ 28.0

For more Euro 2012 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/

In writing these blogs, I have tried to encourage a sceptical, or even mildly contrarian, viewpoint in my reader(s).

It is not so much a case of "if you say white, then I will say black" as "if you say white, then I feel compelled to point out that white is in fact several other colours combined into one" (thanks go to Isaac Newton for that particular insight).

Therefore, if you have been paying attention, you should have little difficulty in answering the following question: "is Camelot a good bet at around 1.75 for The Derby at Epsom?". A clue: the answer is not "yes".

It is almost certainly true that Camelot is the likeliest winner of racing's Blue Riband. He is an unbeaten classic winner, likely to be suited by the longer trip of Saturday's race, and his 11 rivals include four from his own stable, all considered inferior to him.

But every horse has its price, and Camelot's price is the one thing about him that does not smell sweet.

If you wanted to pick holes, you could justifiably point out that the form of the 2000 Guineas that Camelot won a month ago has not worked out especially well.

Hermival and Trumpet Major - third and fourth at Newmarket - finished sixth and last respectively in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh last weekend. Coupe de Ville - fifth at Newmarket - came only seventh in the French equivalent at Longchamp before that.

Camelot got readily on top of French Fifteen near the line at Newmarket, but it was by no means a walk in the park for him before that. His Guineas-winning Timeform rating of 123 is 3.5 below the average needed to win at Epsom over the last 10 years.

Camelot is inexperienced, with just three races under his belt, and so, in some respects, is his jockey. Joseph O'Brien has yet to ride a winner at Epsom and has had only one ride (Memphis Tennessee, fourth last year) in The Derby itself.

Joseph, like his mount, is talented, but the roller-coaster of Epsom has made a fool of more than a few jockeys over the years.

Camelot's opposition could be stronger, but Bonfire looks a very worthy rival from where I am sitting. The Andrew Balding-trained colt might be unbeaten himself had he had better luck in France last year, and his Dante win in a decent time showed he is not only decidedly smart but also willing to knuckle down when it matters.

Camelot's stablemates Astrology and Imperial Monarch have both been good trial winners, the latter possibly doing very well to overhaul Thought Worthy at Sandown, while the undefeated Main Sequence goes from strength to strength.

Do you still want to back Camelot at odds on? I don't.

Rather than trying to land on the one or more to beat Camelot - in order of personal preference: Bonfire, Imperial Monarch and Main Sequence - I will be "playing bookie" and laying the horse at what seem to me to be cramped odds.

I don't much like the O'Brien-trained favourite in The Oaks on Friday, either, but Maybe is nothing like so short as Camelot (nor as likely to win, it has to be said).

Maybe is by the Derby winner Galileo, but her dam was a sprinter, and she has neither raced at further than a mile nor shaped as if that is what she needs.

Despite what some may tell you, Epsom is not a good place for doubtful stayers, at least at longer trips: the first four furlongs of the classic trip is as testing as you will find anywhere in the UK.

Maybe may not be odds on, but her presence at the head of the market makes for appealing prices about some of her rivals. The Fugue ran the best Oaks trial in winning the Musidora Stakes at York in a good time, while Vow is bred for stamina and has already achieved near-smart form in just two runs.

That pair come in at combined odds of around 2.60 and should give punters a really good run for their money.

Recommendations
2 pts lay Camelot at 1.8 or shorter in The Derby
1.5 pts win The Fugue at 4.0 or longer and 1 pt win Vow at 7.0 or longer in The Oaks

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

In order to get a steer on the players that are worth backing to top the scoring charts at this summer's Euro finals, it's worth surveying the history of the tournament to pick out trends that can inform your judgement and narrow down a long list of contenders into a shorter one.


History lessons

One of the first observations that stands out is that this tournament has always been a reputation maker for Golden Boot winners. Several winners had struggled to put their stamp on the global game at international level before coming of age at the finals.

In 1984, France captain Michel Platini was a Ballon d'Or winner going into the tournament thanks to his performances for Juventus, but the French public hadn't seen the best of him at the World Cup two years earlier. That all changed when he scored nine goals to lead France to glory on home soil that summer.

Four years later Marco van Basten wasn't even picked for Holland's opening game against USSR because of an injury-ravaged season at AC Milan. He started and scored a hat-trick in their next match against England, and the rest is history.

In 1996, England manager Terry Venables kept faith with Alan Shearer despite the Blackburn Rovers striker's long barren run in national team colours. Shearer was five-goal top scorer for the hosts.

Then in 2000, Savo Milosevic and Patrick Kluivert shared the Golden Boot honours - and while the latter was already an established name at club level, it was the first time either man had shone on the international stage. That was certainly true of 2004 winner Milan Baros as well.

You could argue the same applies to David Villa. He scored three times at the 2006 World Cup but his international career really took off at Euro 2008, where he finished as tournament top scorer with four goals.


Midfielders worth a look?

The only midfielders to win the award were Platini (1984), who was more of an auxiliary forward, and Henrik Larsen, one of four players tied on three goals in 1992. It's rare enough to suggest sticking with strikers would be a sensible approach in the outright market.

Midfielders are barely worth considering in the "Top Four" goalscorer market, either, as no-one would have earned you a full win since Frank Arnesen in 1984. Frank Lampard and Zinedine Zidane (2004) and Michael Ballack and Bastian Schweinsteiger (2008) would have netted you a share of a payout in the last two tournaments, but strikers have generally dominated the head of the scoring charts since the European Championship became a tournament proper in 1980.


Home advantage

Leaving out the freakish 1992 tournament, where four players topped the scoring charts with three goals each, three of eight winners since 1980 have been playing on home soil (Platini in 1984, Shearer in 1996 and Kluivert in 2000). This is a small enough number to suggest there's no point focusing on Poland and Ukraine players purely because they're at home.

A stronger trend is backing sides that, in your view, will reach the semi-finals at least. Four of the last eight winners (again, ignoring 1992) have played for the eventual winners (Klaus Allofs in 1980, Platini, van Basten and Villa), with three others (Shearer, Kluivert and Baros) turning out for sides that were beaten semi-finalists. The exception was Milosevic, who played for quarter-finalists Yugoslavia.


Shortlist

Who you have on your shortlist depends who you think will reach the semi-finals. My strongest selections are Germany, Holland, Portugal, Spain, England and France.

Looking at strikers that have yet to truly make a splash at international level, my shortlist would be: Mario Gomez 9.8, Robin van Persie 12.0, Cristiano Ronaldo 15.5, Karim Benzema 17.5, Fernando Torres 20.0 and Lukas Podolski 32.0. I would omit Wayne Rooney because he will miss England's first two games through suspension.

My main pick would be Ronaldo, as I believe Portugal have a better chance of getting out of Group B than the odds suggests. He's also the most prolific goalscorer at club level of any player in the competition.

I would also look at Robin van Persie in the 'place' (Top 4) betting as either he or Ronaldo are likely to make the quarter-finals at the very least. My third pick would be Fernando Torres, whose chances of starting regularly have markedly improved since Villa was ruled out of the finals through injury.

Best Bet: Cristiano Ronaldo @ 15.5
Other Recommended Bets: Robin van Persie and Fernando Torres in the Top 4 Market @ 3.8 and 5.1 respectively

For more Euro 2012 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/

Tournament History
The BMW PGA Championship is the European Tour's flagship event. In existence since 1972, the event moved to its now permanent home of Wentworth in 1984. It's the only non-major event in England all season and given the dominance the Brits have on the game at present that's both disappointing and perplexing.

Venue
Wentworth (West Course), Surrey, England.

Course Details
Par 72 -7,302 yards
Stroke Index in 2011 - 73.47 (Par 71)

Opened in 1926 and designed by Harry Colt, the West Course, also referred to as Burma Road, has undergone a series of alterations in recent years, under the supervision of Ernie Els, and the tinkering continued in 2012.

All the greens were remodelled in 2009/10 but the biggest change of all came on the par five 18th hole. At the mercy to modern equipment, the old 18th was an almost given birdie and a great eagle chance but now, with a dirty great stream snaking its way in front of the green, it's a stunning risk/reward finishing hole.

Poor Ernie had to put up with a lot of criticism in 2010 when players first met with the new design and in truth, it didn't quite work. Most players attempting to find the green in two found the water and the vast majority decided to play it as a three-shot hole. The landing area has been extended and flattened out this year and the green has also been rebuilt (as has the 8th green). Hopefully those tweaks will make all the difference because the hole has the potential to be one of the best finishing holes in the game and we may see a few more go for it in two this time around.

They've also changed the 12th hole back to a par five and I'm pretty sure that will be a change welcomed by just about all. Always a fairly easy birdie/eagle chance, provided you got your drive away, it was changed to a par four in 2010 and for the last two events it's just been a brute.

Course form stands up quite well and it often pays to follow those that have shown a liking to the place already. It's a tricky, tree-lined track where the wind can play havoc. Down in the trees it's very hard to gauge the strength and direction of the breeze and some players just never seem to take to the place. The likes of Graeme McDowell and Ian Poulter for example, always seem to struggle here.

TV Coverage
Live on Sky for the first two days, starting at 10.30 and live on the BBC over the weekend -2.15 Saturday and 2.30 Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - Luke Donald -6 (Playoff)
2010 - Simon Khan -6
2009 - Paul Casey -17
2008 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -11 (Playoff)
2007 - Anders Hansen -8 (Playoff)

Market leaders
Last year's winner, Luke Donald, can again return to the top of the world rankings if he successfully defends the title. Having finished runner-up to Khan in 2010, it's quite clear that the course changes suit Luke and I'm not going to put anyone off backing him. He's a bit too short for me but his chance is strong and of the front three, he looks the best value.

Second best, Lee Westwood, is still putting deplorably and third favourite, Rory McIlroy, hasn't really shone at Wentworth yet.

Selections
The more I looked at this event the harder it got! I'd have backed Luke at a double-figure price and I'll look to get him onside in-running. And in addition to Luke, I also liked Justin Rose, Ben Curtis and Matteo Manassero but I felt they were all too short too.

It's a really tricky event and I couldn't say I fancy anyone strongly at all but I've still picked out plenty of players to get the ball rolling, though I must stress, stakes have been kept to a minimum and I'll get stuck in properly at halfway. I don't mind chancing plenty at big odds to start with though, as Paul Krishnamurty points out here in his Find Me A 1oo Winner column, there have been plenty of big-priced winners here and small stakes on plentiful picks could be the way to go.

My first pick is the man responsible for all the changes and a man desperate to win this event. Ernie Els used to live on the course and he knows it intimately, he's won the Volvo World Match Play here an incredible seven times and he's in very good form. He's had three top-five finishes in his last seven events in the States and he's traded at odds-on in two of them! Could this finally be the year he nails the PGA?

Robert Karlsson stunned everyone two years ago when from the cut line he shot himself into contention with an amazing Saturday 62. He flopped on the Sunday and missed the event last year but I thought he looked in decent form at last week's Volvo World Match Play and I fancied 80.0 was fair.

I've a feeling 2008 winner, Miguel Angel Jimenez, could finally be in decline but he may just have one last hoorah in him and why not here? And I've a soft spot for another Spaniard, Alvaro Quiros, who must have spent the last few dayss kicking himself after the World Match Play, where he looked in good form before throwing his quarter-final away to Rafael Cabrera-Bello. This track should be too tricky and tight for the likeable Spaniard but he was right in it last year at halfway before dropping away and he also finished 16th in 2009.

Paul Casey came back too soon from his snowboarding accident and he had to withdraw from the Players Championship and last week's Match Play event (replaced by Karlsson) so I'm a little surprised he's even made the line-up. It's risky in the extreme but at 130.0 I'm prepared to give him a chance.

Retief Goosen had been woefully out of form since flopping in the final group at the Transitions Championship in March but he was the only player to get the better of last week's winner, Nicolas Colsaerts, beating him 1 Up in the round-robin stage. He also beat Charl Schwartzel 4 & 2 and readily disposed of the out of form Robert Rock before succumbing to Paul Lawrie. He's not one to trust nowadays but he has a bit of Wentworth form and 160.0 is too big, as it was about recent winners Berndt Wiesberger and Thorbjorn Olesen.

And finally, it's a leap of faith maybe, but I fancy the Golf du Palais Royal, venue for the Trophee Hassan II, could be a similar track to Wentworth. Both are tree-lined and wind affected and I've taken a small chance on the last two winners there, Michael Hoey and David Horsey, at huge odds.

BMW PGA Championship Selections:
Ernie Els @ 38.0
Robert Karlsson @ 80.0
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 90.0
Alvaro Quiros @ 120.0
Paul Casey @ 130.0
Retief Goosen @ 140.0
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 160.0
Berndt Wiesberger @ 160.0
Michael Hoey @ 380.0
David Horsey @ 400.0

For more golf betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/golf/

I said at the start of the Championship Play-Offs that I thought West Ham would prevail, and nothing I have seen so far has made me want to divert from that statement.

The Hammers looked a class apart in both legs against Cardiff. Okay, the Welsh side had a longer season than most and probably a thinner squad than their fellow promotion hopefuls. But they are still a very good side that was made to look decidedly ordinary both at home and in the return at Upton Park.

Back in the summer, many people felt it was a foregone conclusion that Sam Allardyce's side would bounce back to the Premier League automatically. Whether that spread into the Hammers' camp we will never know, but there were times that you were left with the feeling that they took on the air of a side that believed if they hung around on the pitch long enough, something would eventually happen for them.

They clearly had the best squad - never mind if you felt they adopted the best style of play - but they did appear to be waiting for things to fall into place rather than busting a gut to actually make sure it did.

That certainly wasn't the case against Cardiff. The Hammers took an early grip on the first leg in Wales and then simply pulled further and further clear over the remaining two and a half hours or so. They never looked in any trouble: solid at the back, creative in midfield and a threat up front.

What joy it must be for a defence that has been battling to contain the likes of Carlton Cole and Ricardo Vaz Te to see a striker like Nicky Maynard coming off the bench. No other club has that strength in depth and perhaps the Hammers realised that not going up automatically was a slap in the face to wake them up about what was required to avoid another season in The Championship.

So, I make a West Ham win my best bet at 2.0. For some reason there is a myth that these finals are tight games - but bearing in mind it's been 10 years since a Championship Play-Off Final went to extra-time, I'm more than happy to believe if the Hammers are going to do it, they'll do it without the need for overtime.

And my belief in West Ham is not in any way demeaning the ability in the Blackpool squad, or the achievements of Ian Holloway and his men in reaching the Play-Off Final for the second time in three seasons.

I fancied Birmingham to see them off over two legs, but I had reckoned without the tremendous character in the Tangerines squad, and not to mention the exquisite football of the likes of Stephen Dobbie. They were worthy winners against the Blues, even allowing for some nerves towards the end of the second leg at St Andrews. Holloway has instilled real belief in his group of players, and they show the sort of attacking qualities that fans love to watch, and which excites neutrals.

However, it could be that adventurousness which proves their downfall. They are not a side that likes to sit back and soak up pressure - they want to get forward themselves, and on the wide open spaces of Wembley, that could leave them vulnerable.

Their defensive record away from Bloomfield Road during the regular season was among the poorest in the division: they only kept four clean sheets in 23 away games during the regular season, and as we saw at St Andrews, even when 2-0 up and looking comfortable, they conceded twice. But you always fancy them to score - indeed, including the two Play-Off games, they have found the net at least once in 23 of their last 24 Championship fixtures.

Therefore, combining a West Ham victory with the belief that Blackpool will push them all the way and score themselves leads me to two further recommendations: both teams to score and Over 2.5 Goals.

The emphasis on the sheer monetary value of winning this one fixture has really been increased in the last couple of seasons, and in the last two years we have seen finals finish 3-2 and 4-2: clearly teams are going to have a go, and it's seen as better to go down fighting than defend and get pipped at the post. Indeed, of the 22 finals at Wembley, 13 have paid out on Over 2.5 goals.

As for a dabble in the goalscorer markets, it's no surprise to see both Cole and Vaz Te vying to be at the head of the markets. However, at a slightly bigger price, I think Kevin Nolan offers virtually the same chance of success as those two.

The midfielder has netted 13 times for the Hammers this term, and as was shown in the second leg when he put his side in front, he'll be right in the thick of things at set pieces and has shown a knack down the years for being 'Johnny on the spot' when the ball is nodded on or knocked down.

Best Bet: Back West Ham to win @ 2.0
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.74
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.08
Back Kevin Nolan To Score @ 8.6

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

The Blues have scored in each of their last 13 Champions League games (25 goals)
And having found the net at Old Trafford, the San Paolo, the Estadio da Luz and twice with ten men at the Camp Nou in that sequence, there is no reason to suspect they will be cowed by the task awaiting them at the Allianz Arena. In fact, the only European away match they failed to net in over the last three seasons was at Marseille when already qualified last term. Bayern Munich should have no trouble playing their part, firing one blank in 14 at home and scoring two or more in the other 13.

English sides have won just one of their last eight European finals in all competitions (Manchester United beating Chelsea in the 2007/08 Champions League)
Though England have the edge in European club finals against Germany, Premier League teams' recent glut of near misses is of greater relevance, especially as Chelsea have stood out above all compatriots as the specialists in agonising failure. Think ghost goals, penalty-shootout heartbreak and baffling referee displays. If Bayern are to prevail, they should do so in 90 minutes, with Opta noting that they have drawn only one of their last 31 fixtures in the competition.

Mario Gomez has scored 20 goals in his last 17 Champions League appearances
The Champions League final is usually decided by an obvious protagonist, Barcelona's front three Pedro Rodriguez, Lionel Messi and David Villa all scoring at Wembley last year and Samuel Eto'o and Messi cast as heroes in 2009. Diego Milito was Inter's star in 2010, while Cristiano Ronaldo and Frank Lampard - who struck in every round - did the business in 2009. Bayern Munich striker Gomez is the most prolific performer standing this campaign, so don't be surprised if he delivers again.

Recommended Bets:
Back both teams to score @ 1.9
Back Bayern Munich to win @ 1.83
Back Mario Gomez to score @ 2.4

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Chelsea's run to the final was more impressive

In the autumn, as Bayern Munich strolled through the toughest group with the sort of efficiency cliché demands, and Andre Villas-Boas struggled to steer Chelsea through a simpler one from the crouch position, Bayern looked far more likely winners. Yet since the knockout stage started, the Blues have been the star turns; five European outings under Roberto Di Matteo have produced five wins, a draw and a 10-4 goal supremacy. Bayern by contrast lost to FC Basel, lucked out in drawing Marseille (perhaps in worse form than any other side in Champions League quarter-final history) and saw off their Spanish superheavyweight opponents only thanks to Sergio Ramos sending a penalty into orbit.

They beat the mighty Barcelona

By contrast, Chelsea scored twice away to the holders with a man disadvantage, when one goal would have sufficed. Not only did their performance with ten men at the Camp Nou demonstrate an ability in adversity that may render their defensive problems and Bayern Munich's home advantage irrelevant, it is a mighty fine omen. The last two clubs to have navigated a route past Lionel Messi and his tiki-takatastic team-mates have gone on to yoink the trophy. The duo contesting this final were unfortunate enough to personally experience the effect that a victory over Catalan royalty has on a side's swagger, Chelsea losing to Manchester United in the 2008 final and Bayern falling to Inter two years later.

You've got your Germany stereotypes all wrong

Sure, at international level banal instructions like "never write off the Germans" and "remember they are most dangerous when written off" and "don't forget they are England's bogey team" are to be sagely savoured, but never apply them to a European club final. The last five such England versus Germany showdowns have ended in Anglo exuberance, including four in a row in the Champions League and Chelsea's most recent continental triumph against Stuttgart in the 1998 Cup Winners Cup, in which Roberto Di Matteo was a starter. The Blues also prevailed on the previous occasion that they met Bayern Munich - 6-5 on aggregate in the 2004-05 Champions League quarter-finals.

All the pressure is on Bayern

Di Matteo's interim appointment in March was not portrayed as a strategic manoeuvre designed to enhance silverware-lifting potential, but a desperate attempt to extinguish the mutinous spirit of the Villas-Boas regime, so the success enjoyed since has been a remarkable bonus. For Bayern however, their whole campaign has built towards this game, with failure inexcusable. The desperation has been heightened by domestic disappointment and the fact that their Bundesliga and German Cup challenges were both halted by Borussia Dortmund, the most genuine threat to their standing as Germany's elite team in years. Jurgen Klopp's men thrashed them 5-2 on Saturday to wound Bayern's morale ahead of this season-defining test.

A caretaker has won the top prize before

Nobody typifies the unusually carefree attitude of this incarnation of Chelsea more than the boss, who having never expected to assume this position after being axed by West Brom last February has absolutely nothing to lose, and is thriving on that freedom. He wouldn't be the first caretaker manager to win the competition, as Tony Barton achieved the feat with Aston Villa 30 years ago.

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Having played out a fairly insipid first leg 0-0, the layers were quick to hand advantage to Sheffield United for Monday night's return match at Bramall Lane, with the Yorkshire club now strong favourites in the To Qualify market at 1.48.

Friday's game at the Lamex was a shocker to be honest. There were as many chances as addresses in a hermit's contacts book, with Stevenage coming closest to breaking the deadlock with a deflected shot hitting the bar. The quality of passing and possession was really poor on a very dry pitch (unhelpful for slick passing) with both too cagey for any attacking options.


Tactics

The Blades clogged up the midfield in the opening leg, playing a 4-5-1 asking Stevenage to break them down - which they couldn't. United played Chris Porter as a lone forward up front, and he was too isolated to cause any damage. Midfielder Stephen Quinn was the 'man in the hole' but he dropped deeper and deeper as the game progressed, which virtually rendered the partnership with Porter useless.

Manager Danny Wilson rested front man Richard Cresswell for Friday's game and I would envisage him reverting to a more aggressive 4-4-2. Wilson will see the first 90 minutes as 'job done' and Cresswell will offer more of an aerial threat too.

I thought Stevenage might be good enough to nick a goal at home, but I was disappointed with their quality of crosses from out wide (which has been their strength). Borough boss Gary Smith might go a 4-4-1-1, which was successful for an hour in the 2-2 draw at Bramall Lane in April, with Robin Shroot playing behind Patrick Agyemang.

The roles could be reversed here, and the 0-0 at 10.5 should be considered with a view to laying off In-Play.


Home and Away

Sheffield United's home form has been excellent all season, losing just three times and scoring 54 goals in the process. However, their attack of Porter and Cresswell has not quite the same threat and Stevenage have a strong four at the back and might feel confident in trying to contain that duo.

The visitors boast the second best defence away record in the division, having conceded only 21 goals away from the Lamex this term. They are a tough and hard-working side with tremendous organisation and might put the onus on the hosts to try and break them down. The Under 2.5 Goals angle is once again a strong possibility.


Key men

Having been totally frustrated with Agyemang continually drifting out right in the first leg, Boro wide man Luke Freeman has the most creation in this team. He was denied space on Friday, but caused havoc in that 2-2 draw last month between the two sides and the man with the orange boots is my sort of player down the left.

However, United's Kevin McDonald looked the best midfielder on show at the Lamex, and looks as though he has the class to play in a league above. Stevenage might pack their midfield this time to isolate his danger and he was always comfortable whenever in possession.


Brave lays

The first goal odds always interest me whenever the betting options are boosted with a live Sky game. If there is a cagey start to this and Stevenage can quieten down the home fans, layers might be looking to take on 0-10 minutes 5.0 and 11-20 minutes at 5.5. Risky, but understandable.


Recommendations
Back The Draw @ 3.7
Back 0-0 @ 10.5 with view to laying off In-Play
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.82

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20:40 3rd Round Heat 1
Unbeaten sprinter You Mind Me has done little wrong so far and should just be quick enough early on to hold off Trewmount Snap. But wide-running Bubbly Phoenix, who stumbled coming out last week, may prove too fast for the pair of them. Strong staying Longwood Hawk looks guaranteed to qualify. Select 6-3-1

21:00 Heat 2
Razldazl Jayfkay drew gasps of appreciation from the crowd after an awesome track-record breaking run last week and is obviously impossible to oppose. He could potentially go even quicker in a race without any other early speed. Strong running Bowtime Sykes is just preferred to improving Skywalker Gold for the other qualifying spots. Select 4-6-5

21:15 Heat 3
Mill Bling Bling should be suited by the switch to trap one but needs to break and probably won't be able to hold Droopys Loner in the early exchanges, who although vulnerable to a finisher, offers a value bet to hold on this time. Shelbourne Geoff is running well and looks nailed on to qualify, while strong staying Westmead Maldini can also make the next round. Select 2-6-4

21:35 Heat 4
Razldazl Rioga stepped up markedly last week and will prove hard to beat from his favoured trap one berth. Ruthless Man is running well and remains open to further improvement, but Mill Maximus is less suited here than elsewhere and can be opposed. Droopys Lorenzo is far better than last week's disappointing effort. Select 1-5-6

21:50 Heat 5
Boher Paddy has looked back to his best in the two rounds so far and can maintain his incredible unbeaten record in trap one, which currently stands at eleven races. Kennelmate Taylors Cruise should appreciate the wider draw and can also qualify, while improving Bucks Blade, who ran the track much better last time, can make it a clean sweep for Charlie Lister.
Select 1-5-2

22:10 Heat 6
Rapidly improving Jaytee Pedro can maintain his unbeaten Wimbledon record and with the bonus of a vacant trap inside rates the best bet of the night albeit in a very hot heat. Reigning champion Taylors Sky has yet to trap and will need to be wary of fast starting neighbour Young Sid, but both can also qualify at the expense of the stronger Longwood Days. Select 6-2-3

22:25 Heat 7
Coolavanny Bert caught the eye last week and with a better draw should take all the beating with further improvement possible having come into the event after a layoff. Droopys Jet has yet to show his best, but can improve with the benefit of the inside box. Classy Blonde Snapper can edge out badly drawn Malbay Phanter for third. Select 2-1-3

22:40 Heat 8
Judicial Ruling's incredible run last week was somewhat put in the shade after JFK's track-record, but he is certainly a big player in the competition and will prove very hard to beat here. Unbeaten Tinas Nova is still improving and looks well housed in the red jacket, while Razldazl Bugatti has also hit peak form and looks another obvious qualifier. Select 5-1-3

Selections
Jaytee Pedro 22:10 nap
Boher Paddy 21:50 nb
Razldazl Rioga 21:35

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