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Betting guide to Oaks Day

01 Jun 12 08:35
Out of bed at 5am and on the road from Lancashire to Epsom by 5:30. Well, that's the plan for Friday morning and there is plenty to mull over on the journey.

First, why do Godolphin not seem to realise that the problem within their vast, sprawling empire simply doesn't lie with jockeys?

Second, is it time that Coolmore started emulating the Vatican by issuing a puff of white smoke from the Ballydoyle chimney in order to herald the final revelation of eagerly awaited running and riding plans?

And third, what will win the featured Investec Oaks at 16:05?

On balance, I suspect that The Fugue is the one to focus on at the top end of the market with Shirocco Star appealing as a lively type among the longshots.

It's hard to predict who will go off favourite between The Fugue and Maybe and there was precious little between the pair on their sole previous encounter in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket four weeks ago.

Maybe just had the edge on that occasion behind a rampant stablemate in Homecoming Queen, but The Fugue gets the vote on this occasion for the simple reason that she has been seen in action again since and left the strong impression that she's thriving when dancing away with York's Musidora Stakes.

Granted, The Fugue faced a small field that day and her main market rival Twirl is probably a little way down the Ballydoyle batting order, but the way she powered through the race before bounding well clear was impressive.

A low draw in a biggish field will mean William Buick has to be alert early, but The Fugue is bred to progress again over a mile-and-a-half and she's the main choice with a small interest on the stoutly-bred Shirocco Star to build on a highly promising return to action at Newbury.

The other two horses I'm interested in this Friday are Worthadd in the 14:50 and Stand To Reason in the 14:15.

Stand To Reason faces a rematch with Resurge, having been pipped by his rival in a humdinger of a finish to a Chester handicap.

Resurge will be dangerous again given that he's 2lb lower in the weights than when winning this race last year, but Stand To Reason is still on the upgrade and has the valuable assistance of Ryan Moore again as he bids to continue on his upward curve.

The case for backing Worthadd in the Diomed Stakes is simple and rests on the old fashioned belief that he is probably just the best horse at the weights.

High class in Italy and a fine second to Canford Cliffs in last year's Lockinge at Newbury, he made a fine start for new handler Sir Mark Prescott by winning a German Group 3 recently and his freewheeling style should make him hard to peg back here.

Recommended Bets
Back The Fugue and lay off at 1.5 in-running in the 16:05
Back Shirocco Star and lay off at 6.0 in-running in the 16:05
Back Stand To Reason and lay off at 3.0 in-running in the 14:15
Back Worthadd @ 2.06 in the 14:50


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