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Almost every Opta trend points to a Germany victory, but there are reasons to believe that Greece will keep things respectable...


Greece have met Germany eight times before this meeting, but are yet to win (D3 L5)

This stat won't provoke much surprise given that Germany almost always have the superior players, and in fact could be flipped to suggest that it is fairly impressive that Greece have drawn almost half of their meetings with the most successful side in European Championship history, including three of the last five. They haven't lost any of the last seven by a margin of more than two goals, and have trailed at the break in only one of the last five, so though defeat is being treated as an inevitability, a reasonable resistance should perhaps be expected.


None of Greece's last ten goals at the European Championship have arrived before the 42nd minute

That pattern has shown no sign of transforming this summer, with the earliest of the 2004 winners' three goals being scored late in first-half injury time, the other two coming within eight minutes of the interval. As the first insight points to Germany being forced to wait until after half-time to seal the win - something that was also true of their group games against Portugal and Denmark - it would appear logical to bet on the second half being the more goal-littered of the two.


Germany have won their last 14 competitive games - an all-time record in DFB history

And while Germany have been in the best form of their entire existence, holders Spain have been held once and kept waiting until the 88th minute for the breakthrough in another match, the Netherlands have already exited and the team backed in before the tournament got underway, France, have underwhelmed. It is therefore no surprise that Joachim Low's men have emerged as 3.32/1 favourites, however that is still a handsome price. Opta reveal that on the two prior occasions that Germany have reached the quarter-finals in this format, they have gone on to reach the final.


Recommended Bets:

Back the half-time draw/full-time Germany win @ 4.8
Back the second half to feature more goals @ 2.2
Back Germany to win Euro 2012 @ 3.3


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After a couple of seasons in the wilderness both Richard Sterne and Ross Fisher havw bounced right back to form says Mike Norman, and that makes them the men to beat on the European Tour this week.


With one round to go at the US Open the Form Guide was in a good position last week with both Lee Westwood and 250.0249/1 selection Nicolas Colsaerts bang in contention in a tie for fourth. But unfortunately that was as good as it got.

To win any golf tournament you generally need a bit of luck from time to time. Westwood's luck - as it so often is in these big events - completely deserted him when his tee shot on the fifth hole got stuck up in a tree. That was that as they say. As for Colsaerts, I'm not sure if it was bad luck or bad play, but when you start the final round with four straight bogies you just know it's not going to be your day.

Congratulations to Webb Simpson but after two consecutive missed cuts he wasn't on my mind at all. And he won't be on my mind this week for the Travelers Championship where 'in-form' players are pretty thin on the ground. The BMW International Open looks a better event from that perspective so that's where we'll start.


European Tour - BMW International Open

(Tournaments used: US Open, Nordea Masters, Wales Open, PGA Championship, World Matchplay Championship, Madeira Islands Open, The Players Championship)


Richard Sterne (3)... 18
Paul Lawrie (2)... 17.5
Ross Fisher (2)... 17 (T10 2011, T5 2010)
Sergio Garcia (2)... 13.5 (T5 2011)
Retief Goosen (2)... 12 (T5 2011, T5 2009)


*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in last six weeks/tournaments on tour
**information after a player's points relates to wins (W), top-five (T5) and top-10 (T10) finishes in corresponding tournament in previous three years


I wouldn't put anyone off backing any of the five players listed above as all appear to have an outstanding chance from a recent form perspective. A note of warning though; this week's course is a completely new venue for this event so past tournament form should be treated with caution.

For this reason I've put more emphasis on recent form, and with this being the case few come into this event in better recent form than Richard Sterne and Ross Fisher.

Sterne's injury nightmares have been well documented but when he's fit and at the top of his game then he's easily one of the best players on the European Tour, as four victories within the space of two years will testify. He started this season with a sixth place finish in the Africa Open but then completely went off the boil, missing five consecutive cuts prior to bouncing back to form at the BMW PGA Championship three weeks ago.

A sixth place finish at Wentworth was a terrific performance, and the South African followed it up by finishing second in the Wales Open despite an opening round 73, and then another top-10 finish at the Nordea Masters. Sterne is clearly in good heart, and a reproduction of the form he has demonstrated this month will see him go very close this week.

Much the same sentiments apply to Fisher who has bounced back to form in recent weeks after 18 months of relatively poor play by his standards. The Englishman was one of the game's rising stars in 2010 with a Ryder Cup appearance, a win at the Irish Open, and a second place finish at this event amongst his achievements that year. But a new addition to the Fisher family resulted in a loss of form, and it's only been in the last few months that the Fisher of old has returned.

He narrowly missed the Cut at Wentworth despite playing some good golf, and he promptly turned that good play into a sixth place finish at Celtic Manor before finishing runner-up behind Westwood at the Nordea Masters. Like Sterne, a reproduction of his recent form will see him go very close in Germany.

Recommended Bets: Richard Sterne @ 30.0, Ross Fisher @ 18.0


PGA Tour - Travelers Championship

(Tournaments used: US Open, St Jude Classic, The Memorial, Crowne Plaza Invitational, Byron Nelson Championship, The Players Championship)


Zach Johnson (2)... 21.5
Michael Thompson (1)... 14 (T5 2011)
Matt Kuchar (1)... 14
Webb Simpson (1)... 14
Padraig Harrington (1)... 11 (T5 2010)
John Merrick (1)... 11 (T10 2011)


I'm not overly confident about having a good week at the Travelers Championship with leading form player Zach Johnson arriving here on the back of two poor displays. Prominent in the betting Matt Kuchar and Webb Simpson have obviously had some high profile victories in recent weeks and they look too short to follow up here, so the selections will be big-price contenders Michael Thompson and John Merrick.

Thompson performed brilliantly in San Francisco last week, albeit on a course that he'd previously performed well on. And the signs are good this week too as Thompson recorded a top-five finish here just last year. Merrick also performed well here in 2011 so the fact that he finished second at the St Jude Classic recently augers well.

Recommended Bets: Michael Thompson @ 70.0, John Merrick @ 95.0


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The Three Lions will face a hostile crowd at the Donbass Arena, but the on-field opposition is not nearly as intimidating and Tobias Gourlay believes Roy Hodgson will notch a second consecutive victory.

Kick-off: 19:45 BST
Live On: ITV


Match Odds

This is a must-win game for Ukraine if they are not to emulate the ignominy of Austria and Switzerland four years ago and join Poland on the sidelines of their own tournament.

The market doesn't think they can do it and makes England the favourites to take three points and give themselves the best possible chance of finishing above France and thus - probably - avoiding tournament favourites Spain in the quarter-finals.

Wayne Rooney is available for the Three Lions after serving a two-match suspension and ready to play. His inclusion in the squad suggested Roy Hodgson would use him at the earliest possible stage. Productive performances from Danny Welbeck and Andy Carroll are unlikely to have changed the coach's mind.

With Hodgson so new to the role and not sure of his best team, backing England to win might not make for a totally carefree 90 minutes on Tuesday evening, but it seems like the right thing to do. They should be chastened by the defensive mistakes that dogged their attempts to beat Sweden on Friday, and Ukraine have similar problems.

Oleg Blokhin hasn't been in his job much longer than Hodgson and is yet to get the best out of the wide forwards, Konoplyanka and Yarmolenko. Fervent supporters aside, they are perhaps the home side's best hope of getting the result they need. Thirty-five-year-old Andriy Shevchenko might still be quicker than John Terry, but Ukraine's advantages are few and England should deliver another three points.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Going back to Euro 1980, 28/48 final group matches have produced Over 2.5 Goals. Recent defensive efforts by both teams suggest this match might well breach the line again.

In lieu of knowing what their best teams are, Blokhin and Hodgson have taken 'reactive' approaches to earlier games. It remains to be seen how they respond to the greater intensity of a final group match, but, even if they are safety-first to begin with, it is not clear they have the personnel to totally shut down the opposition. Perhaps there is a bit of value, then, in Over 2.5 Goals at 2.06.


Bookings Odds

Viktor Kassai has pulled 9pts and Above out of his pocket in each of the seven European and international matches since the start of October. Just last Sunday he booked seven players in Spain's opening match with Italy.

Ukraine and England are not among the tournament's most penalised teams so far, but the importance of this result and the high spirits of the crowd could create an atmosphere in which players on both sides feel pressure and start to behave differently.


Both Teams to Score?

Euro 2012 has been pleasantly free and liberal with the goals. At the time of writing - before Group C's final matches on Monday evening - both teams have scored in 14/20 matches. It's 1.81n/a that neither defence will emerge unbroken from this match, but, with Ukraine rarely drawing - they've done so only once in their last 14 outings - and needing to go all-out for the win, you might not need to cover 1-1. The odds-against price about Over 2.5 Goals should have more appeal.

Best Bet: Back England @ 2.3
Other Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.06


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The early favourite to succeed Harry Redknapp is Everton's David Moyes at 3.1 and he is followed by Wigan's next manager market ever-present Roberto Martinez at 5.5, with Newcastle's Alan Pardew fifth in line at 11.5.

Moyes is one of the most respected coaches in the Premier League for the manner in which he has transformed Everton from regular relegation battlers to constant top-half finishers in a decade at the club, despite often being restricted by a lack of funds in that period.

His most impressive achievement was guiding them into the Champions League qualifiers by beating neighbours Liverpool to fourth in 2004/05, a feat made all the more remarkable by the sale of prize asset Wayne Rooney to Manchester United at the start of the campaign.

The Scottish tactician - also the third favourite to succeed Sir Alex Ferguson at Old Trafford at 8.2 - has been hyped in the media as Spurs chairman Daniel Levy's first choice for the job, which is why he initially traded at 1.5.

It is easy to see why he would appeal: he is a commanding figure without being too confrontational or controversial and established Everton as first top-six bankers and then - as Manchester City and Tottenham's spending made that unsustainable - a consistent top-eight presence. He is also the boss who gets the best out of Steven Pienaar, though this might not be quite as major a consideration!

However, this writer's hunch is that to make such a bold decision, Levy must have something high-profile lined up, perhaps a manager he sounded out when all the England speculation was going on and hasn't been able to forget.

For that reason, it is the unemployed trio rounding off the market's top six that intrigue me most: Andre Villas-Boas at 8.4, Fabio Capello at 10.0 and Rafael Benitez at 11.0. All three have won league titles and European silverware, something the Premier League-based contenders lack.

Prior to Redknapp, Tottenham appointed three successive foreigners, their last permanent Brit in charge having been Glenn Hoddle, and he was hired 11 years ago.

The fact that the three leading overseas candidates (besides Martinez, who is in essence an adopted Brit) have all worked in England before makes them even more suitable.

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Match Odds

Most bettors would predict a comfortable victory for the reigning European champions, and it's anything but a surprise to see the market agrees with them. Spain's price of 1.27 will put off plenty of people but on the evidence of the group's opening games it's difficult to see anything other than a victory for Vicente del Bosque's side.

The Spanish may have been a little more sluggish than expected against Italy (1-1) but it was the Republic of Ireland's defending against Croatia that will have set alarm bells ringing (you can see some analysis of that defeat here). Giovanni Trapattoni's side handled aerial balls into the box poorly and also struggled against some of Croatia's clever movement in attacking areas, so Spain ought to find more time and space in and around the penalty area than they did against the Azzurri.

If the 1.27 on Spain is too short then leave this market alone rather than having a speculative bet on the Irish or the draw.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

It's a must-win game for both teams so it's likely there will be chances at both ends, especially if the Republic concede an early goal as they did against Croatia. The second round of games at a major tournament have a do-or-die element to them so teams are liable to shake off the shackles and have a real go at one another.

Some bettors say the over goals market depends not so much on the quality of the attacks, but the defences. On that front there is every reason to believe this will be a high-scoring game. The Republic produced one of the most unconvincing defensive performances of the tournament so far against Croatia, and Spain looked fragile without the leadership skills of Carles Puyol against Italy.

But my feeling is the Republic will work doubly hard to be defensively resolute, at least in the first-half. And I still have reservations about Spain's goalscoring ability without David Villa, who scored 45% of their goals on route to Euro 2008 and World Cup glory. Their collection of little midfielders lack proficiency in front of goal, and against Italy it was obvious Fernando Torres' demons continue to haunt his career.

For these reasons, I'd rather be on unders at 2.12 than overs at 1.87.


Corners Over/Under 10.5

The corners bet you'd really like to have is Spain in a Corners Match Bet - Spain had seven corners to Italy's two in their opening game while the Republic were defeated 7-1 on corners by Croatia - but the price of 1.1 on Spain will be too short for most.

Instead, have a look at backing under 10.5 corners at a good price. Both of Group C's opening games featured under 10.5, as have seven of the tournament's 10 games at the time of writing. Statistically, the price looks very good at around 1.9.


Correct Score

If you look back at the Over/Under 2.5 Goals section above you'll see I'm expecting a fairly low-scoring contest. With that in mind, Spain 1-0 and 2-0 at 7.2 and 6.4 respectively would be my selections in the correct score market. It's worth noting Iker Casillas made five saves against Italy in Spain's opening game, and Spain have kept eight clean sheets in their last 12 meetings against the Republic of Ireland (courtesy of Opta).


Best Bet
Spain v Rep of Ireland under 10.5 corners @ 1.85
Other Recommended Bet
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.12

For more Euro 2012 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/

Match Odds

Germany's performance against Portugal might not have satisfied those who backed them to win Euro 2012, but the result was a good one and the Mannschaft are in a strong position in Group B.

The position is so strong, in fact, that Joachim Low will surely consider launching an assault of Holland's jugular in Kharkiv. The reward for victory over the Dutch is the likely elimination of a serious rival. The risk of defeat is relatively small: there would be another chance to secure qualification in the third group game with Denmark.

Germany overran Portugal in midfield and it was only their own deficient finishing that stopped them scoring more than once. You could say the same of Holland - the match with Denmark was theirs to win - but Germany are set up to thrive against attacking teams, and that is exactly what Holland must be on Wednesday.

Over/Under Goals

The second round of group-stage games tends to be more open than the first: in European Championships since 1980 the ratio of games with Over 2.5 Goals increases from 27% to 44%.

This match in particular is threating to be quite open, even if Joris Mathijsen is fit to come into the centre of Holland's defence.

Bert Van Marwijk's team scored freely in qualifying and leaked goals to Finland, Hungary (three in one match) and Sweden (four in two matches). Low's men failed to shut out any of their last five opponents in qualifying group A.

Thumping wins over San Marino are no guide to games like this one, but entire campaigns can tell us something about a team. These two were the highest scorers of anyone in qualifying and this tallies with attacking talent within their ranks. Over 2.5 Goals is very tempting at 2.06.

Both Teams to Score?

Opta reports that both teams have scored in all seven competitive Holland-Germany clashes.

Unlike Over 2.5 Goals, backing both teams to score covers the 1-1 draw, which is a clear favourite in the Correct Score market. The price on both teams to score is shorter, however, at 1.76.

If the score does hit 1-1 at some point not too close to the final whistle, neither team will sit back and a combination of disappointing attack and excellent defence will be required to keep it that way.

Because the draw is the primary target of neither team you might prefer to take your chances with an odds-against punt on Over 2.5 Goals.

Cue 1-1 draw.

Sending Off?

Football history is what we're interested in here and it reveals a rivalry between Holland and Germany that began in 1974, when a rather good Dutch team were beaten by a more modestly talented German side. The teams fought and fought - literally - until Marco van Basten gained revenge in Euro 88. Rudi Voller and Frank Rijkaard reignited things in 1990.

Jonas Eriksson looks a pretty sensible appointment as referee, alas. He has sent players off in only 4/27 European and international matches, and only one-third of those games reached 9pts in the Booking Odds market. The pair's most recent competitive meeting was overseen by another Swede, Anders Frisk. It finished 1-1 at Euro 2004 and the card count was a mere 2-2.

Best Bet: Back Germany @ 2.54 to win
Other Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.06

For more Euro 2012 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/

Beverley

14:00
Invigilator 2.73 out to 3.25
Dotty Darroch 8.0 in to 5.9
Fair Bunny 8.0 in to 6.2

14:30
Dil Laney 1.89 in to 1.75

15:00
Hab Reeh 3.3 out to 4.5
Highland Warrior 7.8 in to 5.1

15:30
Cottam Donny 3.3 out to 3.85
Eastward Ho 6.6 out to 8.6
Gadobout Dancer 19.0 in to 9.8

16:00
Zaplamation 7.2 in to 4.8
Umverti 25.0 in to 19.0

16:30
Ossies Dancer 9.0 in to 5.7

17:00
Sahore 1.85 out to 2.5
Miss Ellany 6.8 in to 3.65


Haydock

14:20
Gassin Golf 4.2 out to 5.7
Naseem Alyasmeen 10.5 in to 7.0

14:50
Mixed Message 11.0 in to 8.4
Dreamily 12.0 in to 9.0

15:20
Cardinal Water 5.1 in to 3.8
Swnymor 5.1 in to 4.2

15:50
Mica Mika 8.0 in to 6.4
Very Good Day 15.0 in to 9.2
Alakhan 12.0 out to 24.0

16:20
The Osteopath 6.8 in to 5.7
First Post 7.6 in to 5.5

16:50
Look Left 6.33 in to 4.7
St Ignatius 5.45 out to 8.0


Yarmouth

14:10
Pixilated 2.78 out to 3.4
Getaway Car 8.2 in to 5.5

14:40
Vertibes 6.2 out to 7.4
Monsieur Pontaven 11.2 in to 8.2

15:10
Casa Bex 5.65 in to 4.3

15:40
Fathsta 10.5 in to 8.6
Nassau Storm 14.5 out to 22.0

16:10
Citybell 10.13 in to 8.4

16:40
Kyllachykov 4.45 in to 3.5
Avon Supreme 4.86 out to 5.7
Tenavon 6.4 in to 5.2

17:10
Norfolk Sky 6.2 in to 5.0
Spin Again 6.6 in to 5.5
Putin 9.0 in to 6.8

17:40
Yankee Storm 3.9 out to 5.0
Abriachan 7.4 in to 4.5
Coach Montana 9.0 out to 15.5

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Match Odds
If you'd bet on this game several months ago, France would have been a real value selection. There was a time when les Bleus were underdogs, which was baffling considering their superior individual talent and the solid if unspectacular collective progress made under Laurent Blanc during the qualifiers.

Unfortunately, the market has straightened itself out. France are now favourites, with the match odds looking right on the eve of the game. The 2.56 on Karim Benzema and co. will draw in plenty of punters, but I'd recommend the safety net of 0&-0.5 on the Asian handicap (2.11) or DRAW NO BET (1.73).


Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The consensus is Roy Hodgson will make England difficult to beat, and both his personal track record as a coach and the players available to him suggest this view is correct. But looking at the prices, overs at 2.84 is a more sensible selection than unders at 1.52.

This is primarily because of personnel concerns. England have left out Rio Ferdinand and lost Gary Cahill to injury. John Terry will almost certainly perform in an unfamiliar right-side central defensive role, and has limited experience of playing alongside Joleon Lescott.

France's problems are as serious. The absence of Eric Abidal robs the back four of calm and experience, while the centre-half partnership of Adil Rami and Philippe Mexes has been unconvincing in France's warm-up friendlies. Read Betfair's Michael Cox's excellent analysis of France's various defensive problems here.

Then there is the issue of whether Hodgson has worked with the England players long enough to drill them into an effective defensive unit. The answer is likely to be yes, to a point, but not to the degree he would like. There is also the question of whether Steven Gerrard has the discipline to play as a second holding player or shuttle-runner alongside Scott Parker. Should the Liverpool captain be caught ahead of the ball too often, England's defence will be vulnerable against France's formidable attacking options (Karim Benzema, Olivier Giroud, Franck Ribery, Hatem Ben Arfa, Jeremy Menez, Marvin Martin and Samir Nasri).


Both Teams to Score?
A more cautious and arguably smarter selection than overs is 'Yes' in this market. The arguments put forward above apply here, but by accepting the shorter price on both teams finding the net you have the 1-1 draw on your side. And 2.24 is still a decent price considering the teams' defensive concerns.


Corners Match Bet
I expect France to spend more time than England in dangerous attacking areas on the flanks. This is because England are likely to be the more cautious of the two sides, and also because les Bleus possess the players to cause serious damage in those areas of the field.

Franck Ribery goes into the tournament in fantastic form. He has shone in France's warm-up games and will put Glen Johnson under pressure as often as possible.

It is unclear who will start on the right wing, but France are blessed with plenty of options - Menez, Ben Arfa, Nasri and possibly Malouda. With so many players available, coach Laurent Blanc will be able to throw on fresh legs to put Ashley Cole under pressure late on. France also have one of the best attacking full-backs in the competition in Lille's Mathieu Debuchy, who has already scored and set up goals in an international career that is less than a year old.

Given how the game is likely to pan out, France are a good selection to have more corners than England. You're likely to find around 1.9 close to kick-off.

Best Bet
France to win Corners Match Bet @ 1.9

Other Recommended Bet
'Yes' in Both Teams to Score? @2.24

For more Euro 2012 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/

Group A

The market probably has this about right. Russia deserve respect because of their performance at Euro 2008 and the spine of that team is still around. Their recent performance against Italy has seen their price come in a little over the past few days but 2.6 to top the group is still a decent one for a team that on paper probably has the best balance as well as an experienced manager. With Roman Pavlyuchenko, Pavel Pogrebnyak and Aleksandr Kerzhakov in the squad, they probably have the best attack too.

I don't particularly like the chances of the Czech Republic, though I see Jonathan Wilson does. Petr Cech may be worth half a goal a game on current form but they'll be looking to Tomas Rosicky to be talisman and chief goal creator and given what we saw of him for the first half of the season at Arsenal I don't think he's going to play out of his skin at international level. The Czechs also lack strikers who can create goals for themselves.

Poland have home advantage and, the last Championships aside, the hosts usually get out of the group stages. But too much depends on Robert Lewandowski rising to the challenge with the hopes of a nation on his shoulders and I think he might feel the strain. I don't think they're as bad as Jan Tomaszewski makes out but I don't see what their big selling point is other than home advantage. That could actually work against them.

Greece can defend extremely well but it's hard to see where the goals are going to come from. Maybe the turmoil back home will inspire the players to bring a little bit of joy to their fans, although we know fotball is rarely as romantic as that. Still, being hard to beat may be enough in the weakest group of the lot.

Back Greece/Russia to qualify @ 5.5

Group B

Before talking about the "group of death" let's remember that this is only a football tournament. And if we want to use such dramatic words let's save them for Group C, which I think is actually the toughest of the lot.

I say that primarily because I don't think Denmark are a lively runner at all. Yes they'll be physically strong, disciplined, hard-working and possess all of the other qualities you'd associate with this team over the years but they're also relying on Niklas Bendtner to make things happen. He'd back himself to do that but would you? Let's focus on the other three.

We don't need to say much about Germany except that in attack they have an embarrasment of riches who all bring something a bit different to the table. Their defence probably wouldn't make the top four at this tournament but they'll be fine.

The Netherlands are a bit like Germany in that Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Wesley Sneijder, Rafael van der Vaart and a few others all have different skills and are all potential match-winners. But their best defender is Jonny Heitinga and I'm not sure that suggests they can defend a lead with any confidence. Add to the equation Robben's (arguably their most influential player) injury record and potential to be really poor on any given day and their knack of pushing the self-destruction button for no particular reason, and they look short at 1.5 to qualify.

Of course Portugal will be over-reliant on Cristiano Ronaldo - they always are - but this time we may be able to have two bites of the cherry. Ronaldo may finally come good on the biggest of stages or the likes of Nani (allgedly looking for a new employer), Joao Moutinho or Raul Meireles may actually be more George Clooney than William H.Macy this time and star, rather than support. We could lay the Netherlands but because I really don't fancy Denmark at all, the bet is to back Portugal to qualify.

Back Portugal to qualify at 2.6

Group C

Dave Farrar and I share very different opinions as regards Italy's destiny at this tournament. To ensure neither of us will have bragging rights, they'll probably end up not being as bad as he thinks nor as good as I think. Their price to qualify looks a fair one so we'll leave them alone.

I have a horrible feeling I'll wake up on the 19th June wishing I'd laid Spain to top the group at 1.6. If they were playing positive teams I think they'd outscore them and be absloutely fine. But I think they will struggle against teams who specifically go out to frustrate them. Switzerland did that at the last World Cup and so did England at Wembley, both coming out 1-0 winners. On both occasions I noticed that they lacked a Plan B. They kept doing the same things over and again, confident they'd get there in the end. They didn't. Italy, Ireland and, to a lesser extent, Croatia can all be negative when they required to be. That 1.6 lay is probably a bet.

But I prefer taking the view that Croatia will finish bottom. Slaven Bilic is leaving at the end of the tournament, whatever happens, and the signs are that he peaked long ago as coach of this side. A bit like Greece, at least we can trust Ireland to keep things very tight at the back; I don't think they'll concede more than once against any of these three. Whether Robbie Keane, Aiden McGeady or even James McClean can do something at the other end remains to be seen but their defence certainly gives them a fighting chance.

Back Croatia to finish Rock Bottom @ 3.45

Group D

It's the fashionable thing to do at the moment to consider England doomed. I questioned their price to win the whole thing and that was even before the injuries to Frank Lampard, Gareth Barry and Gary Cahill. But I think they're good for a couple of 1-0 wins against Sweden and Ukraine, the latter with Wayne Rooney back in the side. And that should be enough to see them through, even though I think they'll start with a loss against France. That would obviously provide a decent lay-to-back opportunity on their "to qualify" price of 1.68.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic is like Ronaldo in that if he has a great tournament, his side have a real chance. The similarities between the two players go on: the manager doesn't quite know where to play them to get the best out of them, their team-mates expect them to do everything and neither particularly likes it when things don't go their way. But the problem with Sweden is that it's hard to pinpont anyone else who can step up.

Ukraine may be solid but I'm not sure where the goals are going to come from, a familiar scenario for a lot of teams at this tournament. And I have a feeling Andriy Shevchenko will be getting more gametime than he probably deserves, simply in the hope he can roll back the years and produce the goods. The last time he did, Leona Lewis was still anonymous. Six years down the line she makes very few headlines and I don't think 'Sheva' will either over the next month.

France are by far the best team in this group in the key areas. Good coach: check. In-form striker (Benzema): check. Mercurial talent (Ribery): check. Solid keeper (Lloris): check. And for once they look a united bunch puling in the same direction after an impressive qualifying campaign. I think they'll win the group with England joining them as runners-up.

France 1st/England 2nd @ 5.1

For more Euro 2012 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/

After a hugely entertaining year, right across Europe, it's left to the continental finals to round off the season in style.

And with 31 matches in just 24 days, there's every chance Poland & Ukraine will deliver a suitable finale to the footballing calendar.

So whilst pundits and punters alike wait for what promises to be a captivating competition, we're looking at three markets which will surely provide the required level of drama in the upcoming European Championships.

Penalty shoot-outs, hat-tricks and sendings off.

Now when assessing the data, it's important to remember the Euros changed in 1996 to their current four-group, 16-team format (formerly just eight nations contested the finals). Therefore, we must gravitate towards the recent renewals of the competition for the bulk of our form study.

And maybe given current styles of playing (and refereeing!), that's no bad thing.

Penalty-shoot outs

In terms of penalty shoot-outs we've got seven potential matches in the tournament (quarter-finals, semi-finals and the final itself). Unlike the World Cup, there's no 3rd/4th place play-off.

The number of recent games decided by a shoot-out were 2008 (2), 2004 (2), 2000 (1), 1996 (4).

(As a comparison, the last four World Cups have seen make-ups of 1-3-1-2).

Hard therefore to recommend a play on zero matches (3.95) in the betting for Euro 2012.

Logic, and all the available stats, suggest we're likely to see spot-kicks at some point during the competition - after all, England are playing.

Well, that's presuming Roy Hodgson's men get that far in the tournament!

There's a case for backing 1 match (2.66) but at bigger odds and, more importantly, offering extra trading potential, the argument for 2 matches (4.0) is more persuasive.

Hat-trick to be scored?

Of course the difference between the European Championships and the World Cup is the smaller number of competing nations, the fewer amount of games played and the lesser spread of ability between the teams.

In other words, it's a much more competitive event all-round.

An example of this is the 13 finals to date, since 1960, have only managed to produce a total of eight hat-tricks.

Dieter Muller bagged the first in 1976, David Villa the most recent in 2008.

And please note, Muller's feat would count for this particular study as even though two of the German's three goals came in extra-time, all goals (right up to but not including penalties) do count.

Moreover, the chances of seeing another match-ball disappearing up the tunnel in a player's hands have also increased due to the higher number of matches played since 1996.

In the last four tournaments, we've seen hat-tricks in both 2000 (Conceição & Kluivert) and 2008 (Villa).

The market currently trades at (2.18) for 'Yes' whilst it's (1.81) for Europe's finest to draw a blank.

As such there appears to be a slight, statistical, preference towards the former option and, I guess, in the interests of entertainment, this should also be encouraged.

Sendings-off

However, as much as goals change games, so do sendings-off.

Going back over the years the red card figures at the finals are 2008 (3), 2004 (6), 2000 (9), 1996 (7). In it's previous guise, when less than half the number of games were played, there were very few dismissals - 1992 (0), 1988 (0), 1984 (2) and 1980 (0).

With twice as many games, and probably half as much tolerance from officialdom, recent tournaments must be our guide.

But even though this market is limited to 90 minutes (not extra-time) the option 0-2 red cards (9.6) http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105476107&ex=1&origin=MRL still seems a tad limited.

We've seen at least three sendings off in the group stage of the last four championships.

Therefore, given the options (3-5, 6-8, 9-11, 12 or more) and with UEFA's refereeing guidelines ever-changing, the best play might be to dutch together the two middle options.

At respective odds of (3.5) and (4.6) a combined odds bet equates to close on even money. Not that bad considering it would have paid out in three of the last four tournaments.

And that's what it's all about. Enjoying the spectacle of Euro 2012, for sure, but also making money whilst doing it.

These three markets will surely add to the entertainment value, and our analysis should take care of the financial aspect.

Key Statistic

The expansion of the finals, from eight to 16 teams, means that prior to 1996 there were only 15 matches played, whereas now there are 31 games. The group stages comprise 24 matches then come the four QFs, two SFs and the final itself.

Recommended Bets
Penalty shoot-outs in 2 matches 4.0
Tournament hat-trick to be scored (2.18)
Sendings-off, dutch 6-8 (3.5) and 9-11 (4.6)

For more Euro 2012 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/euro-2012/