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Group A

The market probably has this about right. Russia deserve respect because of their performance at Euro 2008 and the spine of that team is still around. Their recent performance against Italy has seen their price come in a little over the past few days but 2.6 to top the group is still a decent one for a team that on paper probably has the best balance as well as an experienced manager. With Roman Pavlyuchenko, Pavel Pogrebnyak and Aleksandr Kerzhakov in the squad, they probably have the best attack too.

I don't particularly like the chances of the Czech Republic, though I see Jonathan Wilson does. Petr Cech may be worth half a goal a game on current form but they'll be looking to Tomas Rosicky to be talisman and chief goal creator and given what we saw of him for the first half of the season at Arsenal I don't think he's going to play out of his skin at international level. The Czechs also lack strikers who can create goals for themselves.

Poland have home advantage and, the last Championships aside, the hosts usually get out of the group stages. But too much depends on Robert Lewandowski rising to the challenge with the hopes of a nation on his shoulders and I think he might feel the strain. I don't think they're as bad as Jan Tomaszewski makes out but I don't see what their big selling point is other than home advantage. That could actually work against them.

Greece can defend extremely well but it's hard to see where the goals are going to come from. Maybe the turmoil back home will inspire the players to bring a little bit of joy to their fans, although we know fotball is rarely as romantic as that. Still, being hard to beat may be enough in the weakest group of the lot.

Back Greece/Russia to qualify @ 5.5

Group B

Before talking about the "group of death" let's remember that this is only a football tournament. And if we want to use such dramatic words let's save them for Group C, which I think is actually the toughest of the lot.

I say that primarily because I don't think Denmark are a lively runner at all. Yes they'll be physically strong, disciplined, hard-working and possess all of the other qualities you'd associate with this team over the years but they're also relying on Niklas Bendtner to make things happen. He'd back himself to do that but would you? Let's focus on the other three.

We don't need to say much about Germany except that in attack they have an embarrasment of riches who all bring something a bit different to the table. Their defence probably wouldn't make the top four at this tournament but they'll be fine.

The Netherlands are a bit like Germany in that Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Wesley Sneijder, Rafael van der Vaart and a few others all have different skills and are all potential match-winners. But their best defender is Jonny Heitinga and I'm not sure that suggests they can defend a lead with any confidence. Add to the equation Robben's (arguably their most influential player) injury record and potential to be really poor on any given day and their knack of pushing the self-destruction button for no particular reason, and they look short at 1.5 to qualify.

Of course Portugal will be over-reliant on Cristiano Ronaldo - they always are - but this time we may be able to have two bites of the cherry. Ronaldo may finally come good on the biggest of stages or the likes of Nani (allgedly looking for a new employer), Joao Moutinho or Raul Meireles may actually be more George Clooney than William H.Macy this time and star, rather than support. We could lay the Netherlands but because I really don't fancy Denmark at all, the bet is to back Portugal to qualify.

Back Portugal to qualify at 2.6

Group C

Dave Farrar and I share very different opinions as regards Italy's destiny at this tournament. To ensure neither of us will have bragging rights, they'll probably end up not being as bad as he thinks nor as good as I think. Their price to qualify looks a fair one so we'll leave them alone.

I have a horrible feeling I'll wake up on the 19th June wishing I'd laid Spain to top the group at 1.6. If they were playing positive teams I think they'd outscore them and be absloutely fine. But I think they will struggle against teams who specifically go out to frustrate them. Switzerland did that at the last World Cup and so did England at Wembley, both coming out 1-0 winners. On both occasions I noticed that they lacked a Plan B. They kept doing the same things over and again, confident they'd get there in the end. They didn't. Italy, Ireland and, to a lesser extent, Croatia can all be negative when they required to be. That 1.6 lay is probably a bet.

But I prefer taking the view that Croatia will finish bottom. Slaven Bilic is leaving at the end of the tournament, whatever happens, and the signs are that he peaked long ago as coach of this side. A bit like Greece, at least we can trust Ireland to keep things very tight at the back; I don't think they'll concede more than once against any of these three. Whether Robbie Keane, Aiden McGeady or even James McClean can do something at the other end remains to be seen but their defence certainly gives them a fighting chance.

Back Croatia to finish Rock Bottom @ 3.45

Group D

It's the fashionable thing to do at the moment to consider England doomed. I questioned their price to win the whole thing and that was even before the injuries to Frank Lampard, Gareth Barry and Gary Cahill. But I think they're good for a couple of 1-0 wins against Sweden and Ukraine, the latter with Wayne Rooney back in the side. And that should be enough to see them through, even though I think they'll start with a loss against France. That would obviously provide a decent lay-to-back opportunity on their "to qualify" price of 1.68.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic is like Ronaldo in that if he has a great tournament, his side have a real chance. The similarities between the two players go on: the manager doesn't quite know where to play them to get the best out of them, their team-mates expect them to do everything and neither particularly likes it when things don't go their way. But the problem with Sweden is that it's hard to pinpont anyone else who can step up.

Ukraine may be solid but I'm not sure where the goals are going to come from, a familiar scenario for a lot of teams at this tournament. And I have a feeling Andriy Shevchenko will be getting more gametime than he probably deserves, simply in the hope he can roll back the years and produce the goods. The last time he did, Leona Lewis was still anonymous. Six years down the line she makes very few headlines and I don't think 'Sheva' will either over the next month.

France are by far the best team in this group in the key areas. Good coach: check. In-form striker (Benzema): check. Mercurial talent (Ribery): check. Solid keeper (Lloris): check. And for once they look a united bunch puling in the same direction after an impressive qualifying campaign. I think they'll win the group with England joining them as runners-up.

France 1st/England 2nd @ 5.1

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