Betting.Betfair

Taking on the favourites last week proved to be a sensible strategy, but with a very different character on a very different course, the opposite course of action is recommended at this week's Valderrama Masters. Rather than dealing with the hapless Sergio Garcia or the winless Rickie Fowler, this time we are looking at the man who could well become world number one on Sunday.

Martin Kaymer is bidding for his fourth title in five tournaments after victories in the USPGA, KLM Open and Dunhill Links, and will take over the top of the rankings if managing to finish in a tie for second.

Throughout all the months of discussing the permutations required by Phil Mickelson or Lee Westwood, who would have thought Kaymer would be the one to usurp Tiger Woods? It would be fitting were Tiger to be overtaken by somebody from the next generation, rather than the rivals that he's dominated for so long. I hope Kaymer does it and more importantly, think he's a cracking bet to do so.

There are very few scenarios on the main tours where I'd even consider taking 7.6 about a golfer, such is the competitive nature of the sport these days. Kaymer is the rare exception for two reasons. Firstly, his claims on form are impeccable. Secondly, even if he hadn't made anything like the progress we've seen in 2010, Kaymer's previous performances around Valderrama's distinctive layout would have ensured he was a popular pick.

Valderrama is a very quirky course that many good players never get the hang of. Indeed, while there are 96 players in this field, at least two thirds of them are very hard to consider. Big scores will be run up by anyone struggling with their long game, or failing to come to terms with some of the harshest greens in Europe. It certainly takes some learning, yet a young and notably inexperienced Kaymer made an instant impact here, finishing sixth and second in 2007 and 2008 respectively. Every area of his game has improved since then, particularly scrambling, which also happens to be one the key stats at Valderrama.

Of course, there is a temptation to think his run cannot carry on, simply by the law of averages. Only Tiger Woods in the modern era has won four events on the spin. Kaymer is certainly a special player, but not yet comparable to Tiger at his peak. Nevertheless, right now he is the hottest golfer on the planet and is not flattered at all by those sensational recent figures. He held his nerve superbly to become a major champion at Whistling Straits and won both subsequent events comfortably. Kaymer's superb run down the stretch at St Andrews, (far from the easiest finish), showed a player at the peak of his powers, in total control. When his pursuers applied the pressure, like a champion, he responded in kind.

If Kaymer reproduces that St Andrews form, he will be unbeatable. Granted, he must be tired after a hectic schedule that of course also included a successful Ryder Cup debut and underperformed at last week's four-man, 36-hole Grand Slam of Golf. However, that event was a friendly compared to this pivotal stage of the Race to Dubai, and I expect his focus to be fully restored now with so many goals within reach.

By Paul Krishnamurty

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I wasn't bowled over by Saturday's show, not in the slightest. In fact, if week two was high on quality, then week three was distinctly average at best, with only two or three acts performing to the standard we've come to expect.

The star of the show - arguably for the third week in a row - was painter and decorator Matt Cardle. He took a huge risk singing Britney Spears' Hit Me Baby One More Time, the song that was famously 'killed' by former pop-style reality TV contestant Darius Danesh. But Cardle's acoustic version of the song was lovely on the ear (is that even a saying?) and completely error free, so much so that all four judges were drooling over this year's favourite once again.

But I have a problem with Cardle's performance - not quite in the 'he should be disqualified' type of way, but more in the 'what is going on here?' sense. And that's because he played the guitar. I'm really struggling to remember when another X Factor contestant was allowed to play their own instrument on the show. In fact if I remember correctly, there was once a time when someone turned up at an audition with an instrument and they were told it wasn't allowed. So has the rule changed? If it has then I only wish I was made aware because I'm sure I would have went a lot further than just the audition stage if I was allowed to play my kazoo!

I got a lot of stick - which I welcome by the way - for saying that One Direction performed brilliantly in week two. On reflection they weren't brilliant but they were still good, and they were just about as good on Saturday. For me they are one of the few acts who will get better and better as the weeks go on and I certainly rate them the biggest danger to Cardle.

In this year's Winner market Matt Cardle is available to back at 2.84, just ahead of One Direction (4.2) and Rebecca Ferguson (6.4) who has come in for support following her excellent performance that had Louis Walsh declaring, "Liverpool has definitely got a brand new popstar".

As Sod's law would have it, John Adeleye - who was my selection to be eliminated in week two - was the fifth act to be eliminated from this year's show. It was noticeable to see that Adeleye - who performed ok I thought - was in one of the two graveyard slots and that now means that he, Storm Lee, and FYD have all been eliminated after performing first or second in that week's line-up.

For that reason then I hope Cher Lloyd gets to sing first or second this week as I just can't stand the girl. It's clear to me that the judges are protecting her - probably because she's had some bad press and is only 17-years-old - by giving her excellent comments each week when quite frankly she doesn't deserve them. Take Cheryl Cole's comments about Mary Byrne for example. Cole criticised Byrne for singing the same type of song week in week out, yet Lloyd has rapped every week but receives praise. How does that work? Tell Lloyd to sing, not rap, and if she can't do it, let's have her off the show.

Wagner is the 3.2 favourite in the 6th Elimination market but I'm in total agreement with my friend (or is it foe?) Jack Houghton on this one. Wagner is rubbish, but he at least gets people talking - and more importantly, voting - which is more than can be said about similar rubbish acts Belle Amie (3.4 to be eliminated this week) and Paije Richardson (8.0). You've also got to understand that some of the voting public are completely bonkers, so whilst there are some 'boring' rubbish acts still in the competition, Wagner - in true Jedward style - is likely to last a bit longer yet.

By Mike Norman

From the moment Gordon Strachan gave his first press conference, declaring that he didn't need the Middlesbrough job, it was evident that he was going to have an uphill struggle winning over the Boro faithful. And that's exactly how it proved.

When you start off on the wrong foot, the only way you can make amends is by winning football matches, and Strachan failed to do so. From his first 17 games in charge, the former Coventry City, Southampton and Celtic boss guided Boro to just three wins which saw the club drop from the fringe of promotion to below mid-table. All this was done with a playing squad that now included half a dozen players signed from north of the border which led to the Teesside club being nicknamed McBoro in some quarters.

And Strachan's assault on Scottish players didn't stop there. Before a ball had even been kicked this season Stephen McManus had been signed permanently, whilst Kris Boyd and Kevin Thompson were brought in from Rangers. On paper, Boro had an excellent looking squad, so good in fact that they were made pre-season favourites to win the Championship title.

But the team failed to gel, suffered injuries, and looked particularly weak in defence thanks to Strachan's failure to sign any full-backs worthy of a mention. Results were poor and attendances at the Riverside fell to a record low, whilst off the field rumours began to surface of player unrest, with the likes of Boyd and Scott McDonald being linked with moves away from the club in the January transfer window.

But it was Strachan's attitude and arrogance that ultimately sealed his fate with the fans. After losing a two-goal lead to Portsmouth the Boro boss was asked how he handles pressure, "I take drugs, drink and smoke", was his uncalled for, erroneous reply.

Strachan leaves Middlesbrough with a record of just 13 wins from 46 games with the club languishing in 20th position in the Championship, just two points and two places above the drop zone.

But the news isn't all bad if - like me - you're a Boro fan. And that's because Middlesbrough legend Tony Mowbray is being hotly tipped to succeed Strachan as the next manager, and if Chairman Steve Gibson wants to give the club an immediate lift, then he must appoint Mowbray as soon as possible.

Mowbray is the man - on the field at least - heralded as the saviour of Middlesbrough Football Club after it was officially wound up in 1986. However, a consortium led by Gibson completed the club's registration with the Football League ahead of the 1986-87 season, and a group of young local players led the club to glory. Under the guidance of Bruce Rioch and the superb captaincy of Mowbray, Middlesbrough won back-to-back promotions to become members of the top-flight of English football once again.

The spirit shown by those group of players - that included the likes of Gary Pallister and Bernie Slaven - has never been forgotten on Teesside and never will.

Mowbray had lived in the area all his life, he knew the traditions of the town and knew how big a part the football club played in people's lives. He was an inspiration on the field, so much so that Rioch once said that if he ever had to fly to the moon, Tony Mowbray, his captain, would be the only man he'd ever take with him. A Boro fanzine called Fly me to the Moon was created and still exists to this day.

Mowbray - who endured personal tragedy when his wife Bernadette died in 1995 - went on to play for Celtic and Ipswich before having managerial spells at both clubs, as well as at Hibernian and West Brom. He remains a model professional in every sense, and is seen as the only man who can resurrect Middlesbrough's faltering season.

Boro have enough quality within their squad to go on a roll in this division but for that to happen they need the backing of the fans, attendances to increase, and the players to believe in themselves again. Mowbray has won promotion from this division before with West Brom, he's the only man who can instantly increase Boro's home attendance by as many as 10,000, but more importantly, he's the only manager the Middlesbrough fans want. For Gibson, I believe it's an easy - and perhaps the only - call to make.

By Mike Norman

You've got to hand it to the media. Despite the fact that no football club is able to buy any players between September and January, it doesn't stop everyone from constantly speculating about transfers.

Sometimes there is substance to this incessant chatter. No one would expect the media to ignore the Wayne Rooney story of last week, when for a few days it did genuinely look like he was destined to leave Old Trafford. Rooney is now a 1.05 shot to still be a Manchester United player come February.

The Rooney story was more of an exception than the rule though. It is far more common for the media to create their transfer headlines from nothing more tangible than thin air.

Take the example of the media reaction to Gareth Bale's hat-trick against Inter Milan. Instead of praising the player for his performance, Gareth Southgate and his ITV cohorts focused on how many millions Bale's goals had added to his transfer fee. I know Southgate flogged all of Middlesbrough's best players on his way to getting them relegated, but surely he should stop short of selling other clubs' stars?

Why is it naturally assumed that Bale will be sold? Spurs are in the Champions League and in a healthy financial position. With Bale having signed a four-year contract in May, there is absolutely no pressure for Tottenham to sell unless Bale agitates for a move. He has pledged his loyalty to the club, but that doesn't stop the TV pundits and the press speculating that he'll move to Inter or Manchester United.

Bale is the 2.02 favourite to be named as the PFA Young Player of the Year and despite his protestations that he just wants to concentrate on his football at Tottenham, he wouldn't be human if he hadn't considered life playing in front of twice as many people every week, while earning twice as much money. I can't help but think that the continual transfer speculation from the media unsettles players almost as much as the agents who are desperate to earn their percentage.

Can I really complain about this practice though? As a consumer of football media, there is nothing more likely to catch my eye than a juicy transfer rumour.

When I was a kid, I'd covertly run up large phone bills on services like Clubcall and Teamtalk to hear the latest transfer stories. The first website page I visit every morning is the BBC transfer gossip page. I'm 33 years old and should really be more interested in important world news, but I prefer to start my day by finding out who is in the frame to sign Southampton's Adam Lallana.

Then I pop over to Newsnow, which is awash with links with to made-up transfer rubbish, from a plethora of traffic seeking websites. Again I can't claim to be holier than thou, because not only do I visit these websites, but I actually run one that has been known to conjure up visitors with enticing headlines like: "Spurs to sign Egyptian playmaker".

The newspapers start these rumours to fill column inches, which are pounced upon by Sky Sports News and a blogosphere equally desperate for content. Then we fans keep this cottage industry alive by eating it all up.

Why do we love it so much? Because we all want our team to be better, whether that means gaining promotion to the Football League or winning the Champions League and we love to dream of the fantasy team that will make those wishes come true.

I'm just hoping that mine still has Gareth Bale in it next season.

By Dan Fitch

There's the old gag about newspapers being black and white and read all over. Of course it only works when you say red instead of read. And come to think of it, in these days of colour printing it doesn't work at all. But there is one thing that still tends to be black and white, and that's the way football results are interpreted.

And it's not just newspapers, I might add, that will reduce the game to an Animal Farm type slogan of "three points good, one or no points bad". The phone-in pundits allow even less shades of grey.

Taking that simplistic philosophy it's easy to see this morning that Manchester City are not genuine title contenders after all; that Arsenal's tippy tappy football is good enough to beat the biggest and best; that Javier Hernandez is the complete goalscoring answer for Manchester United; and that Fernando Torres has rediscovered his top form.

When it comes to betting, however, following those sort of snap judgements is the quickest way to lose a lot of money. You get the worst odds because everybody else is thinking that way - and all too often it turns out they are all wrong.

So with Wayne Rooney sunning himself in Dubai and using some of the loose change from his new £200,000-a-week contract to buy Coleen a cool glass of bubbly, did United's 2-1 win at Stoke really justify their title odds shortening from 7.5 to 6.0? Probably not. Sir Alex Ferguson's squad still looked short of numbers with Patrice Evra forced to play in midfield and Gary Neville, who should have been sent off, showing his age at right back.

Meanwhile at Eastlands it's hard to give a proper verdict on Arsenal's 3-0 win with City reduced to ten men after only four minutes because Dedryck Boyata did get red carded. The same people who felt defeat at Chelsea proved the Gunners could be physically bullied are now saying they've shown their little players can go up against the big men. The reality is that much of their season will depend on keeping Cesc Fabregas fit and on whether Marouane Chamakh keeps improving. If he does then 2.52 a top two finish looks quite tempting.

As for Torres, the 53rd minute finish from close range which secured a 2-1 win over Blackburn was only his second of the season, and he's still anywhere between 5.3 and 15.0 to be in the Premier League's top four scorers, never mind the leader. It's a sign of Liverpool's ongoing troubles that scraping an Anfield win over a very limited Blackburn side is a cause for cheering. I think it more suggests that Blackburn, on the same points as Roy Hodgson's team, are great value to back for relegation at 9.2.

Betfair's market make the current top four very short odds on to retain those places until the end of the campaign. Tottenham are 4.1 to repeat last year's top four finish but that price should be even longer. That's less of a reaction to their 1-1 draw at home to Everton, and more because they've dropped points after Champions League weeks too often this season.

West Brom are the side getting most plaudits after a 2-1 home win to Fulham extended their unbeaten sequence at The Hawthorns which now goes back to February. That's made them as short as 3.0 to finish in the top half. But like United they had some help from a couple of questionable refereeing decisions, and the squad isn't deep enough to sustain the run over a long season.

One club that will stay in trouble is West Ham, now bottom after throwing away a lead to lose 2-1 at home to Newcastle. They are 2.24 to go down, but prepare for that to go odds-on if they get spanked at Arsenal next week.

Wigan's 1-1 draw with Bolton means they have gone four games unbeaten. I lost money backing them to be relegated last year, and certainly wouldn't take the 2.36 for them to go down this time. I do fear for Blackpool, however, after a 2-0 defeat at Birmingham, who are sharpening their claws for this week's derby at Aston Villa. Alex McLeish's side are 5.0 to win there, and that's value because Villa seem to have let their standards slip since Martin O'Neill went. A 1-0 defeat at Sunderland leaves them with a single point from the last three games and only one win in six.

Villa under O'Neill were the last team to score at Stamford Bridge, even if it was a consolation in a 7-1 rout. That means Chelsea's routine 2-0 win over Wolves stretched their home record to 785 minutes without conceding a goal, eclipsing the 675 minute best set under the miserly Jose Mourinho. The Blues are 1.66 to retain their title, and with a five point lead and that sort of record they are full value to back at that price. And that's definitely not a snap judgement.

By Ralph Ellis