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December 2, deadline day approaches. The decision on whether football is 'coming home again' looms. England have slipped from their position as favourites - you can back them at 2.2 to stage the 2018 World Cup. The Shrewdies - perhaps influenced by the Betfair Contrarian (insert link) - have switched to the perception that Russia are home and hosed. A miniscule 2.0 now on the finals being played out in the 'giant continent' that is the old Soviet Union. Ambramovich-style billionaires - led by spokesman Viacheslav Koloskov - have seemingly been successful in painting England's bid as 'primitive and comical'.

I'm instantly reminded of Michael Palin's classic Ripping Yarn - Golden Gordon -which paints the extreme portrait of an English Alpha male whose life is totally centred around his football team, the fictitious Barnstoneworth United. His boy, named Barnstoneworth naturally, must recite the 1936 Cup winning team before he is allowed breakfast each morning. School homework learning the ascension of British Prime Ministers is binned in favour of detailed pen portraits of Barnstoneworth's legendary players and Gordon regularly smashes up the terraced living room every time Barnestoneworth lose. His wife listens out for the scores on the radio and then dutifully stands in the parlour with the mantelpiece clock in her hands, ready for when her husband comes home to hurl it through the closed bay window.

Primitive and comical is right. England is no giant continent but a small island into whose very fabric football is woven. I read my Non League Paper every weekend and never cease to marvel at the thousands of match scores recorded from the Sydenhams Wessex league to the Vodkat North West Counties and beyond. Thousands of teams below the Football Association four division professional structure that has existed now for over 150 years. Thousands of teams' match scores recorded each week and yet still the four teams who play closest to where I live are still deemed too small to be included in this media coverage. Cartmel & District FC, Grange, Allithwaite Rangers and Arnside all housed in the four divisions of the North Lancashire and District League. All organised clubs with clubhouses and coaches and supporters and weekly raffles.

Football is being played everywhere you look in England and it is indeed the game's home. Any doubt is removed when you go to Ambleside in the Lake District. A rural area of outstanding natural beauty, championed by Romantic poets and scores of hillwalkers and ramblers. Site also of photographer Stuart Clarke's celebrated 'Home of Football' Museum. A cornucopia of contemporary photography celebrating the World of Football including a 40' by 30' mega print of John Motson standing in the snow in his homburg, reporting on the game that will never be played.

The market suggests that the 2018 World Cup final will not now take place in England. Sepp Blatter prefers Russia - where football will always come a cultural second to chess - where the economic consideration is sounder. No governments borrowing billions to build stadiums there. The politics look sounder. England's bid began under a now deposed Prime Minister. His replacement is unsure where the money will come from. And it is fairer to take the tournament to countries that have not staged the event previously. England had its bite in 66' and took full advantage, getting its name on the Trophy.

You have to prove you can win it on foreign soil before you get it back and there are plenty of us who ruefully agree that England will only ever win it again if it comes back here. But England is football's home.

Vitaly Motko and Alexei Sorokin intimated that football and crime were too intrinsically linked in England for it to be a good idea to hold the tournament here again. But was that the action of desperate politicians who knew they were fighting against too mighty an opponent?

Football belongs in England. The World Cup belongs in England. Fifty-two years is too long between tournaments. We need it back. The world's biggest community of football junkies are English and besides, we build fantastic stadiums here! Franz Beckanbauer has long agreed that England deserve a second chance and Sepp Blatter is wavering. You can feel him on the edge of being swayed back if we can just pull that final coup de grace now. With just a couple of weeks to go.

We will have the infrastructure all set up after 2012. The English economy needs it. We don't have any sweet ethnic billionaires. All we have is our football.

Monsieur Blatter, you know it in your heart.

It belongs to us!


By Gary Boswell

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It's getting closer, the Ashes series is within touching distance and is the hottest topic in town when the pint after work club gather around the watering hole and put the world to rights. Australia are in free-fall, they haven't endured a losing streak like this since touring sides arrived in a boat. England expects!

The paradox is that the hope and expectation is increasing the pressure on the England players and it's a classic case of 'cometh the hour.' It's no good thumping Bangladesh, putting Pakistan to the sword or winning the Twenty20 World Cup if they can't manage to achieve what every English cricketer is put on earth to do - beat the Aussies in the Ashes in Australia!

A team doesn't go to Australia and do 'alright' and come back successful. England are going to have to perform above and beyond their best which means massive individual performances. So who are likely to be the key men?

The first thing that is needed is strong leadership and in the two Andys, Flower and Strauss. Andy Flower will play a crucial role, Strauss needs to perform with the willow and the coach needs to take as much pressure as he possibly can off his skipper. The main contribution that Andrew Strauss can make once the series gets underway is runs. Big scores win matches and first and foremost Strauss is an opening batsman.

He has the temperament to succeed in the cauldron atmosphere that the Aussies create and the experience to help his fellow opener Alistair Cook. Cook seems to have been bang out of sorts for ages, he rescued his summer with a ton against Pakistan but scores of five and nine in the latest warm up game against Western Australia have once again put him under the microscope.

There are seven batsmen Down Under vying for six slots which suggests that the two people who will probably have the most influence on England's batting are coach Andy Flower and national selector Geoff Miller. There can't be any room for sentiment and if the vice-captain isn't in good nick then it may well open the door for Ian Bell.

Jonathan Trott and Paul Collingwood are another two who aren't exactly at the top of their game at the moment. Trott has immense talent whilst Collingwood is gritty and determined and can change the course of a Test match with a spectacular catch. England need both of these players to perform.

The batting line-up is completed by the enigma that is Kevin Pietersen and the explosive Eoin Morgan. If a genie, rather than the amber stuff, were to pop out of the top of a bottle for the pint after work club the sporting wish would be that KP shines in this series. He is crucial, absolutely vital and winning will be a realistic prospect if he hits top form.

With the ball, all the talk is about Graeme Swann and without doubt he will have a huge say in who is triumphant. The expectation bar as far as James Anderson is concerned is set low, he'd almost have to limbo to get under it. The belief is that conditions won't suit him and that he'll probably be the weak link in the bowling attack. If he were to turn that on its head, use whatever cloud cover comes and find swing both ways it would do the English cause a power of good.

That's it then - cometh the hour the following needs to happen: the selectors must show a ruthless streak regardless of reputations. Andrew Strauss needs to lead from the front, KP needs to find some form and James Anderson needs to blow a raspberry at all his doubters. If that happens, the 3.15 available on England to win the series will be like stealing money. We all know what happens if you steal money - you end up Down Under!


By Frank Gregan

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It's odd how your memory plays tricks on you. Back in 1970 you couldn't sit up all night to watch the Ashes live on TV because it wasn't shown. We'd barely got colour then, never mind satellites. But I did devour every word that was written from Down Under during that winter, and I clearly recall Ray Illingworth being one of the key figures, not only as a captain but a bowler.

In fact, I was lucky enough to be asked to ghost a coaching book for him a few years later, and sat enthralled in his Pudsey home learning the secrets of the man I thought had spun the Aussies into defeat across an epic seven Test series.

Look at the record books this morning and I'm so wrong. Four of England's bowlers took more than the 10 wickets he collected, and quite clearly off spin wasn't the way to get people out in Australian conditions. That set me wondering whether Graeme Swann really will be the key player for Andrew Strauss's team this time. He's 2.44 favourite to be England's top wicket taker, so is that one to lay? After all, not only Illingworth failed to get wickets, but there haven't been too many off spinners since who succeeded on Australian wickets. Even John Emburey, who took five for 80 to win the Brisbane Test in the 1986-7 triumph, got carted around for much of the rest of the tour.

However, it could be different for Swann. He's all over the papers this morning after taking four second innings wickets in the first warm-up match in Perth to put down a marker. And there's something else which will be on his side - the agreement that the Decision Review System will operate during the Ashes.

Back in 1970 England didn't get a single LBW decision in their favour, and of Emburey's 18 wickets on Mike Gatting's triumphant tour (he took seven in the final Test when the series was already won), just three of them were leg before. Swann, in contrast, gets a lot of his victims that way and the technology which proves a ball would have turned onto the stumps has helped him and will continue to do so in Australia. Lazy left-handed batsman can't just plant a pad down the pitch and kick it away any more. "I'm very happy it is around," he says. "The first five years I bowled I used to wax lyrical about how unfair it was for spinners who could not get lbws. Now I'm being proved right."

An in-form Swann will only add to Australia's problems, which seem to be growing. Ricky Ponting has decided to turn out for Tasmania for the first time in three years in an attempt to rediscover some form - while Simon Katich and Doug Bollinger have both failed to recover from injuries in time to play for New South Wales against Victoria today. Katich, who broke a thumb on the tour to India, has set himself a deadline to play for New South Wales in a Sheffield Shield match next week as his last chance of being fit for the first Test.

The Aussies are still odds on at 1.8810/11 to regain the Ashes, but there's nothing on their side at the moment, not even the technology! So I'm laying Ponting's men for the series, and backing Swann to succeed where Illingworth and virtually every other off spinner has failed!


Five things you might not know about Simon Katich

1. Born in Middle Swan, Western Australia, in August 1975, his dad was a homicide detective in Perth. His grandparents moved Down Under from Croatia in the 1920s.

2. A childhood bout of glandular fever left him with no sense of smell.

3. In 1999 on his first full Australian tour to Sri Lanka, Katich contracted chicken pox and a viral infection. He was confined to his Colombo hotel room for two weeks.

4. Encouraged to cook as a boy by his mother, he made it to the semifinals in the Oz version of Celebrity Master Chef - his signature dish was crispy salmon with wilted spinach and mashed potatoes.

5. He's hot tempered. Last February he had to be pulled apart from Michael Clarke after grabbing the vice captain by the throat in a row because Clarke wanted to cut short celebrations of a win over South Africa to be with his girlfriend.


By Ralph Ellis

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I recently read an interview in which the actor Danny Dyer was moaning about being typecast in roles as gangsters and football hooligans. You'd be sympathetic towards him, apart from the fact that when he's not acting, Dyer constantly fronts documentaries in which he meets gangsters and football hooligans.

If you always play to type, then you can't expect people to think of you in any other way. Which is why Mario Balotelli can't complain when people label him as a nutter.

'Super Mario' is stereotyped as a bad boy footballer, with an explosive talent that is entirely in keeping with such a loose cannon. The Italian striker certainly lived up to his reputation by scoring two goals and getting sent off in Manchester City's win over West Brom.

City are appealing against the decision and the possibility of a three match ban, though Balotelli will miss the Manchester derby, having only just got his career at Eastlands started after injury. Roberto Mancini's side are the favourites at 2.72, with the draw at 3.35 and United at 2.96.

It's clear that Balotelli is an immensely skilful player, but Mancini can't claim that he didn't know what he'd taken on when he signed him. Mancini gave Balotelli his debut at Inter, before the forward essentially got himself kicked out by the European champions.

During his spell at Inter, Balotelli had a public spat with Jose Mourinho, threw his shirt at his own supporters who were booing his poor performance and worst of all, appeared on TV wearing a AC Milan shirt. Only Gareth Bale has heaped more pain upon the Inter faithful.

City's fans probably shouldn't be too surprised then if Balotelli one day pitches up on Granada news wearing a United shirt. Even though he's only been at the club a few months, he's been openly talking about a move to Milan or Napoli in the future.

Balotelli has already hit the headlines with his antics as a Manchester City player. He was lucky to walk away unscathed from a car crash, suffered a knee injury on his debut and was recently arrested by Italian police for tying to break into a woman's prison with his brother.

None of this has been particularly serious, but it hints at the fact that Balotelli is the sort of character who just can't stop himself from getting into trouble. It's a strange fact of life that immense talent is often combined with a volatile nature.

These are the players who you can't help but have a soft spot for, even when they're doing wrong. We've seen it all before with the likes of George Best, Diego Maradona and Paul Gascoigne. These stars tend to burn very brightly when still young, only to fade away due to their own poor decisions.

In the Premier League era, the player that Balotelli would want to emulate is Eric Cantona. Like Balotelli, Cantona came to England with a reputation as a troublemaker. Alex Ferguson was never able to completely able to curb that streak (as that mouthy Palace fan will testify), but he was able to harness that wonderful football talent.

A bleaker vision of the future though, is that Baolotelli's career in England could mirror that of the former Newcastle forward Faustino Asprilla, who only lasted a couple of years at St James Park, before Kenny Dalglish grew tired of his distracting baggage.

The jury is out as to whether Mancini will be able to control Balotelli's excesses and get him doing what he does best on the football field. What is certainly guaranteed though, is that the young striker will be one of the most compelling Premier League characters, for however long he remains at Manchester City.

By Dan Fitch

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It was the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli who first told the world that there are three kinds of lies - "lies, damned lies, and statistics". Well, actually, it wasn't. Disraeli was who Mark Twain claimed said it first, but there's no evidence to back that up - the phrase doesn't appear in print until ten years after Disraeli died in 1881. So that's another lie then.

I thought of all that when I heard on Friday night that former Wimbledon striker Jon Goodman had invented the "Performance League", billed as a thought provoking example of "sabermetrics", analysing detailed data to produce forecasts. Goodman puts 3,000 different statistics from every Premier League match into his melting pot. He said Arsenal will win the League, Manchester City won't even make the top six let alone the Champions League places, and Sunderland will get relegated alongside Blackpool and West Ham.

Doesn't look so clever this morning, does he? Sunderland were first to undermine his argument when their record signing Asamoah Gyan finally came good and scored twice to sink Stoke. Then Andy Carroll conjured up a classic centre forward's header for the only goal for Newcastle while Arsenal had one of those days when they seem to hit the post a million times. And City's 2-0 win at West Brom moved them to level points with the Gunners while opening up an eight point gap on Spurs in seventh place.

What Goodman can't build into his analytical system, and nobody ever will, is the consequences of the mixture of human heroics and frailty which creates the drama that makes the Premier League so compelling. For instance Mario Balotelli, Manchester City's moody new Italian, suddenly struck form with his first two League goals then got himself sent off so will miss Wednesday night's Manchester Derby (City are 2.8 to win it).

Then there are the refereeing mistakes which have astonishing consequences. Sunderland's win was owed partly to Martin Atkinson failing to see Lee Cattermole play basketball on the line to keep out a Kenwyne Jones header. Stoke, forecast to finish in the top ten under the stats system, are left outside the bottom three only on goal difference. They are 4.1 a top ten finish and 6.6 to go down. Meanwhile West Ham were denied a late penalty for their first away win of the season in a 2-2 draw at Birmingham because Michael Oliver couldn't spot a shirt pull from five yards.

And how do you know when great players will suddenly recapture their lost form? Could the statistics have told you that the real Fernando Torres would finally show up for Liverpool yesterday to get both brilliant goals in a 2-0 win that has suddenly made Chelsea look vulnerable? Maybe they could because Goodman's stats have Roy Hodgson's team down to finish fourth - you can still back them at 4.9 to do it.

Of course the idea of using mathematics to analyse sport is not new. And both ProZone and Opta have built tidy businesses from distilling the bare facts about each game they study. But that still can't replace the individual feel for a game that helps a top manager to make the right selections and decisions.

How could the scientists explain what Ian Holloway has done for Blackpool? Cold hard logic says they are still 1.7 favourites to go back down, but a stirring performance against Everton in a 2-2 draw lifted them to 14 points and you can't buy the belief in their ability to pass the ball that Holloway has instilled into a group of underpaid players who were largely thrown together in the first week of the campaign.

Spirit, or lack of it, can work both ways. Goodman has Aston Villa down to finish in the top six, but Betfair's punters are laying that as long as 10.5. A team that stayed virtually unchanged under Martin O'Neill are now picking up all sorts of injuries since Gerard Houllier decided he needed to run them hard to get them fitter. And letting in a late goal in the 1-1 draw at Fulham means they have now taken just three points from five games.

Facts also don't explain how Tottenham can go in a few days from destroying Inter Milan to losing 4-2 at Bolton. The only other time they'd followed a Champions League game with an away trip they won 2-1 at Stoke.

I suspect that if on-line betting had existed in Disraeli's days he'd have used the Betfair Contrarian for his tips, probably making a tidy profit doing it. And that isn't a lie!


By Ralph Ellis

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Matt Cardle (2.62 Winner market; 1.18 Top 3 market)

Matt is a fantastic singer no doubt and he fully deserves to be favourite to win this year's contest. Even my 'degree-in-music, league two football-loving' friend thinks he will win so that's good enough for me. The one question I will pose to you all though is, has he played his trump card too early? His rendition of The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face was spine-tingling admittedly, but that's the song that got the judges' attention at Bootcamp and I would have thought he'd have saved it for later in the show. His propensity for high-pitched songs might catch him out as the competition progresses, but somehow I doubt it as he is in such a strong position now, one below-par week won't be too detrimental to his chances of winning.


Rebecca Ferguson (3.5 W; 1.34 T3)

This girl has an incredible recording voice and without a shadow of a doubt she will be a star. Don't pay any attention to the fact that people are saying she is too shy, that trait didn't do Leona Lewis any harm. And wasn't it refreshing to hear her admit she had to fight to stop herself from crying on Saturday (in contrast to a few other females in the competition who shed tears at every opportunity)? Pulling off a few up-tempo numbers will enhance her chances of winning, but whatever she sings, she'll definitely be in the final three.


One Direction (5.7 W; 1.5 T3)

This manufactured boy band are arguably one of the best groups the X Factor has ever seen, or at least they have the potential to be. They've done nothing wrong so far and can only get better from here on in. The advantage they have for the time being is that they are Simon Cowell's only remaining act. Not only will they get the pop mogul's full attention then, but it also means they won't have to sing in one of the graveyard slots (first or second) for a while. They've got a lot of female fans, so as long as they avoid controversy off the stage they'll be in the final three with Matt and Rebecca.


Cher Lloyd (15.0 W; 2.32 T3)

Whether I'm right or wrong in other people's eyes, I like to think that I say things as I see it, and regarding Cher and her mentor Cheryl Cole I just don't like them. Lloyd had an element of rap in her first three performances and was criticised for it, so to her credit she proved that she didn't have to rap when performing brilliantly in week four. So quite bizarrely, she then goes back to rap in week five! Even more extraordinary is that Princess Cole had the audacity to criticise Mary Byrne (week three) and Aiden Grimshaw (in his VT prior to his week five performance) for singing in the same style each week. How does that work then?


Aiden Grimshaw (22.0 W; 5.0 T3)

Aiden has to be the most boring contestant ever to appear on The X Factor. Some will argue that as long as he can sing - and he can - then it doesn't matter. Unfortunately it does matter however. If you don't connect with the public (ala Treyc Cohen) then you simply won't win. In week one he was dull but brilliant, but in the following weeks he has been just as dull and not so brilliant. He's like the pop equivalent of the Grim Reaper; let's just hope the axe falls on him before his performances kill me off.


Mary Byrne (50.0 W; 6.6 T3)

Mary was spectacular in week's one, two and three, good in week four, and poor - actually make that awful - in week five. It's certainly not the progression of a potential winner that's for certain. Ignore what the judges think is my advice and let Mary belt out those Shirley Bassey classics. After all, she's a real person according to her mentor Louis Walsh, as opposed to his other remaining act Wagner who is a complete and utter muppet!


Wagner (55.0 W; 8.2 T3)

Purely and simply the worse contestant ever to reach this stage of The X Factor. Some will point to Chico and Jedward being particularly poor but at least their only crime was that they couldn't sing. Wagner not only can't sing, but he can't keep up with the music, he can't dance, and contrary to what other people might think, he isn't entertaining. If he were a racehorse his form figures would read 000FP; the 0's meaning he finished way down the field in weeks one, two and three, the F meaning he was so far behind the music in week four he would have fell, and the P meaning he would have been pulled up last week for being so poor.


Paije Richardson (90.0 W; 13.0 T3)

Paije has almost sneaked up unnoticed this year, quietly surviving week by week without doing anything special. He's not a great singer, but he's very likeable and something like big band week (though it's reportedly been axed this year) would be right up his street. Failing that, allowing him to sing soul or jazz might see him survive a bit longer but he'll be gone sooner rather than later.


Katie Waissel (200.0 W; 20.0 T3)

I'll give drama queen Katie some credit, she's a hell of a fighter. Three times she's been involved in a sing-off and each time she's won the backing of the judges. But how Cowell saved her on the grounds that, "I'm going to base this on who, as a viewer, I would like to see next week", was rather baffling. It was only a few weeks ago Cowell was saving an act based on how they performed in the sing-off because that's how it is supposed to be (his words not mine). And doesn't Katie being in the bottom two three weeks out of five suggest that the public don't like her? Contradicting judges and Katie's yoyo style performances mean she is one to avoid in any betting market.


By Mike Norman

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While one specific result should not signal the end for any football coach ­as proven by Feyenoord's excellent decision to retain Mario Been after they lost 10-0 to PSV last month ­ the latest defeat for Werder Bremen, a 6-0thrashing at Stuttgart, has kick-started a debate about the future of their boss Thomas Schaaf.

Schaaf is the longest-serving coach in the Bundesliga, having been at the Weserstadion since 1999, and before that, he spent four years with the reserve team. Schaaf also deserves huge respect for sticking to his belief in attacking football, which is why Bremen are so often involved in high-scoring matches. It's always worth looking at the over 2.5 goals option when they play as well as the other goals markets ­ six of their matches this season have already had five or more goals in them.

But the major complaint at the moment is not that their attacking potential has dried up ­ with a team that contains the likes of Marko Marin, Aaron Hunt, Claudio Pizarro, Tim Borowski and Daniel Jensen, that's unlikely to ever happen ­ but that their defensive side of the game is not working.

And so it proved against Stuttgart, a side that lost six of its first seven matches but since sacking Christian Gross and replacing him with number two Jens Keller, has been steadily moving up the table. Cacau scored twice and could have had another but missed a penalty, while the score could have been very different had Torsten Frings not missed a penalty of how own at 1-0.

"Going forward, all of us work hard. Tracking back, less so," said Pizarro last week. "That's our problem. We are very good to watch but it's not easy for the strikers. If you're scoring three goals but concede four, it's not ideal."

Bremen's sports director Klaus Allofs has vowed to be patient with Schaaf but has indirectly taken some of the blame himself. Not for the first time, he has critcised Mikael Silvestre, a player he signed last summer, for Bremen's defensive issues, claiming: "He is in a difficult spot and plays well below his ability."

Bremen are safely in mid-table but given their hopes of Champions League qualification again this season, they should be higher. They take on Frankfurt next week, and are 1.95 to win, looking to end a run of four straight losses and after playing Schalke, take on Tottenham in what promises to be a thrilling European tie at White Hart Lane. Bremen are 10.0 to go further than Bayern and Schalke in the competition, but the
bet for the Spurs game will be in the Over-Goals market.

Schaaf was understandably critical of his side after the Stuttgart loss. "We completely failed to do what we had to but we must get this out of our system," he said. "We tried a few things today but we played like it was a training session, which is clearly insufficient for a competitive game." His longevity, and previous success, at the club, should grant him some grace but questions are still being asked.

As Suddeutsche Zeitung's Raphael Honigstein put it: "There is a suspicion that this team could be so much better with a manager in charge who spent more time drilling defensive movement rather than lecturing his players."

By Ben Lyttleton

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The biggest heavyweight clash in Britain since Lewis and Bruno went at it in Cardiff 17 years ago promises to be our boxing event of the year but let's get it straight from the off - in terms of form, ability and levels, this is close to a mismatch.

If it was a verbal spar maybe Haye V Harrison would be 50-50 with both fighters enlivening the build up with zealous jibes and generally engaging banter. Haye has promised Sky 3D viewers will be able to watch a one dimensional fighter get a three dimensional beating while Harrison has stared into the camera repeating "yes I can."

Make no mistake, this fight will definitely pull in the casual viewer and Audley continues to sound convincing. But let none of that persuasive patter about destiny sway you from the bare facts: Harrison is a European level operator at best and he's taking on a genuine elite fighter and a proper World Champion in David Haye.

Those constructing a case for backing 'A-Force' at 6.4 will point to his two-inch height and eight-inch reach advantage. They'll say Haye (1.18) has no chin or endurance, that Harrison has Olympic pedigree and comes into this on a four-fight winning streak.

But before you start to believe the ballyhoo, remember three of those wins came in prizefighter against an assortment of characters and nothing can disguise the fact that Harrison was minutes away from career oblivion until a bingo punch brought him a last round knockout over Michael Sprott last time. That was in every sense his lottery ticket.

Securing a huge payoff though and winning a world title are two entirely different propositions and for my money, Harrison has done nothing in his career to suggest he is ready for this. Revenge KO wins over Danny Williams and more recently Sprott may be highlights but they just don't compare to what Haye brings to the table, not by a long chalk.

Yes, Harrison has the 'experience' of having shared a ring with Haye, but everyone has heard a version of how he was mauled by the champion when sparring as Lennox Lewis watched on in 2006. Haye has gone on to win world titles at both cruiser and heavyweight since then and he's a bigger, nastier animal now.

One time close friends, Haye and Harrison are now as distant in that regard as they are in terms of achievement, and I believe talent too. Haye has blistering speed for a heavyweight and it is clear that he has carried that potent dig up with him. All bar one of his heavyweight opponents have fallen by way of the 'Hayemaker' and the Londoner put ever durable John Ruiz on the canvas four times before stopping him in nine rounds in April. That included a first round knock down by the same jab-straight right hand combination that sparked Alexander Gurov in a round for the European Title in 2005 and exactly the right tools for a southpaw like Harrison.

The question for me is not will David Haye win but how quickly can or dare he get it done? In an October interview with Sky Sports, Haye said; "I'd hate for this to be a one round blowout. Hopefully he can somehow hang in there for a few rounds to give the people some entertainment because if he comes out with his usual 'ordinary' Harrison, he's getting knocked out very quickly." I couldn't agree more. I think as soon as Haye lets his hands go, this fight will end.

Still, it is worth remembering that Haye said he was going to smash Nikolay Valuev into pieces yet painstakingly chose a different path. The means to an end, yes, but that fight underlined something we learned the night Haye took the cruiserweight belts away from Jean Marc Mormeck in Paris; that he is meticulously prepared by Adam Booth and they always have a plan.

Losing to 'A-Farce' is an embarrassment too ridiculous to contemplate for Haye; he's worked all his life to be where he is so he can't afford to be reckless. Much therefore depends on Harrison's attitude. Will he press like he believes in destiny or can we expect his usual reticence? If it's the latter he might just survive a few rounds but either way, Haye will be too fast, too strong and simply too good. I just can't see this fight going beyond half way; the question is which round are you picking?


By Alex Steedman

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The announcement last week that Elena Dementieva is to retire with immediate effect has had the scribes falling over themselves to dish out gushing praise about the Russian's career, but hang on a minute - where were the majors?

The fact that most of the career obituaries concentrated mainly on Dementieva's perceived wonderful personality and character, which I have no reason to doubt, having met her just the once, and less about her actual achievements tells the story though.

Zero Slam wins and just two Slam finals in 14 years on tour is a poor return for the former world number three, whose main career success appears to be her Olympic title in 2008.

OK, so it's fantastic to be an Olympic champion and more so for a nation with a proud Olympic tradition such as Russia, but Nicolas Massu is an Olympic singles champion and I doubt people will be so keen to wax lyrical about the Chilean when he retires.

Most observers when they hear the name Dementieva will recall the two shocking Slam final displays in Paris and New York in 2004 when just about anyone with a racquet could have turned up and defeated her.

The opposition was hardly fearsome either. She wasn't blown away by a Williams or peak form Henin or Hingis. No, Anastasia Myskina and Sveta Kuznetsova were the mighty victors on those occasions of painful viewing.

Her inconsistent performances are best summed up by compatriot Myskina, who once told tennis reporter Matt Cronin: "You never know which Elena will show up, the great one or the one who isn't there."

She certainly wasn't there in those 2004 finals and although the pressure of the occasion can get to anyone - just ask another Russian Dinara Safina - it was often Dementieva's awful serve that let her down.

Her service action always looked like it was about to break down, despite the fact that she changed it numerous times, and there were stages in her matches when you wanted someone to walk on court with the white towel in their hand and call off the contest.

It was that bad, although it made myself and doubtless many other seasoned Elena watchers a good deal of profit from laying her at around the 1.07 mark on a regular basis.

So, we have a dodgy serve and a temperament with a propensity to fold under pressure, but there's another big reason in my view why Dementieva failed to win a Slam and that, of course, is her mother.

Anyone who's seen more than one of her matches will recall the anguished looks to her mother, Vera, in the crowd as if to say: 'what do I do now?' in a similar fashion to Andy Murray, but without the anger.

I'm not a big fan of parents as coaches, a view which Murray himself concurred with when it was mooted that Judy Murray might step into the breach for the Scot recently and Donald Young's stubborn resistance to an independent coach hasn't exactly helped his development either. You need the objective viewpoint of an unrelated observer in any sport and I feel that her over reliance on Vera proved to be Dementieva's undoing in the end.

She had a lot of gifts, such as speed, poise, athleticism and the ability to hit a clean, hard ball, but the lack of a plan-b when a change-up was required and that awful serve meant that she ended up without a Slam and I felt that her talent went largely unfulfilled at the very top level as a consequence.

Elena's fitness was never an issue, as her 46 Slams on the bounce will testify to, until a calf injury put her out of Wimbledon this year, but I feel she should have done better in the majors.

Her over 50 percent loss record in the Australian Open, where she just once passed the fourth round in 12 tries can be used as an example of this underachievement.

A dual winner in similar conditions in Sydney, it was another Dementieva riddle as to her failure to compete in Melbourne and in the end, that enigmatic side to her game summed her up - a very decent career, but on the whole could have done better.


By Sean Calvert

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

If the tabloids are to be believed, and God help us if they are (Arsène Wenger doing what? I don't believe it), there is mutiny in the air at Manchester City. Roberto Mancini, not 11 months into the job, is a week away from getting the sack if results at Eastlands don't change as dramatically as Wayne Rooney's opinion of Manchester United's "ambition".

In many ways Mancini has created a rod for his own back. There is nothing wrong with casting yourself as a no-nonsense, single-minded authority figure. In the cut-throat world of top-flight football you are only as good as your next game and it is the manager alone who takes the rap for results. Indeed, in the era of the celebrity footballer it is quite refreshing to see managers putting pampered players in their place by dropping them or offloading them to Cardiff rather than pandering to their every spoiled whim.

The trouble is, the hard-line approach only works as long as battles are being won; but as soon as the going gets tough, so does managing the dressing room. In truth it is a difficult balance to strike, and it is why the very best coaches are rewarded so handsomely. A good coach needs to be tactically on the money, capable of instilling fear and respect into his charges, but also capable of making his players feel loved.

Jose Mourinho is the classic example. He is a man who could freeze players out for having the temerity to get injured, but could bring the best out of his "untouchables" by convincing them that they were the best in the world. In the early days of Mourinho's tenure at Stamford Bridge, Frank Lampard was once stopped in his tracks by The Special One while emerging from the shower. Mou spent 15 minutes standing in front of the bemused England international lavishing praise on him and telling him why he was by far the best midfielder in the world. By the end of it, Lampard was embarrassed but walked away from the experience feeling 10 foot tall.

It is also key for a coach to understand the dynamics of the dressing room. Mourinho, for example, identified early on that Marco Materazzi was an influential member of the Inter squad when he arrived in Milan, and though the veteran defender ended up on the bench more often (36 times) than he played (35) in his two seasons under the Portuguese, Matrix's love and loyalty for Mourinho was unstinting. He became Mou's enforcer, even allegedly once beating up Mario Balotelli for throwing his shirt on the ground and storming down the tunnel after being substituted.

We are not all privy to the workings of Mancini's inner sanctum but from the outside it appears that he pays no such heed to player psychology. Or if he does, he has got it all wrong. While showing Craig Bellamy the door was a show of force, his preferential treatment of Carlos Tevez, whom he made captain despite the forward's inability to speak English and whom he allowed an extended stay in Argentina amid rumours of homesickness - will only put team-mates' noses out of joint. Should there be one rule for Tevez and one for everyone else?

The fact that some of the players, like Yaya Toure, are on higher wages than even City's astronomical norm has only fuelled jealousy among mercenaries who have tired of Mancini's rigorous training methods (apparently, he sometimes makes them train fully twice a day, the nasty man). Suddenly, the great strength in depth that appeared to be such an advantage could prove to be Mancini's undoing. He has created a monster.

And it is a monster that has lost the last four matches in a row. At this stage of the season City have two points fewer than Mark Hughes' City - who were unbeaten when he was sacked - had managed at the same stage last season, which is why it seems unlikely that the Italian will be given the time he requires (two years at least) to make a tilt at the title.

City are still fourth in the table, have beaten Chelsea this term and have the capability to turn things around this season, if only because Manchester United are so poor, Arsenal so inconsistent and Chelsea have been the beneficiaries of a benign early season fixture list.

Every side has a bad patch in the season and if City achieve a derby win against United 2.9 in midweek, then the 24.0 at which they are currently priced to win the title and the 6.4 you can back them to finish in the top two will narrow considerably.

Should they lose 2.7 or draw 3.4 to United then Mancini really will be walking the plank. Luckily, there is little chance of Mourinho going to Middle Eastlands just yet, as he is already highly remunerated and enjoying one of the most prestigious jobs in football at Real Madrid. Perhaps his head might be turned at the end of the season, after he has guided Los Merengues to the Champions League 5.1 and La Liga 1.96 but I'd be prepared to wager he'll tell City that there are some things that money can't buy.


By Richard Aikman

(read more at betting.betfair.com)