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Tournament History
First staged at Prestwick, way back in 1860, the Open Championship is the oldest of the four major championships and it's the only one played outside of the USA. Still regarded as the biggest and best of the four, it's always played out on a seaside links course. This will be the 141st staging of the Open Championship.

Venue
Royal Lytham and St Annes, Lancashire, England

Course Details
Par 70, 7086 yards
Lytham opened in 1897 and the original course design is accredited to the then course pro, George Lowe, but Harry Colt, in 1919, Ken Cotten, in 1952, and most recently Martin Ebert, have all put their mark on the course too.

Lytham's been used for the Open Championship on ten previous occasions and every winner has been top-class.

Starting with legendary US amateur, Bobby Jones, who won the first Open Championship staged here in 1926, the roll-call of winners is a who's who of golf with the list of champions in time order following Jones reads, Bobby Locke, Peter Thomson, Bob Charles, Tony Jacklin, Gary Player, Seve Ballesteros (twice), Tom Lehman and finally, in 2001, David Duval. Not a bad list is it?!

Lytham is a classic out-and-in links with the first nine holes usually playing downwind and the back nine back into the breeze. It's the only course on the Open rota to open up with a par three and there have been one or two tweaks since it was last used in 2001.

The par five sixth hole was the easiest on the course when Duval triumphed but it's now been converted to a par four and 181 yards have been added to the course in total. Fairways are narrow, greens are small and with a grand total of 206, the whole place is very heavily bunkered. Following a wet summer the rough is thick. Defending champion, Darren Clarke, described it as a bit thicker than you'd normally find on a links course.
"It's really tough - if you start spraying the ball around this week you might as well go home. There are a few patches out there where it's just absolutely brutal."
And after a practice round on Sunday, Tiger Woods is reported to have said.
"I've never seen the rough this high or thick and dense, you can't get out of it. That bottom six inches, in some places, is almost unplayable."
Finding the short grass is clearly going to be of paramount importance this week.

Historically, the front nine has been the scoring nine, with five players breaking 30 there, the last of which being Paul McGinley in round two in 1996. When Duval won, he played them in nine under-par for the week, as opposed to the back-nine, where he was just one under. But now that the 6th has been changed to a par four, I fancy the best scoring section could be holes 7 though 13, although that said, the 12th is a tough par three.

The finish is really tough, with the short par four 16th offering up the only respite on the way back to the clubhouse.

Like all links, the course's primary defence is the weather and if the wind doesn't blow too hard this week, with rain-softened greens, a straight game could pay dividends. The last three winners here have all amassed a double-figures under-par total and when Lehman won in 1996, with rounds of 67, 67, and 64, he set the lowest first 54-hole Open Championship score of 198, before just holding on after a stuttering final round - a record that still stands.

It's also interesting to note that those five scores of 29 mentioned above, are five of only 12 occasions when 30 has been broken in Open Championship history.

Don't get too wrapped up in all this talk of brutal rough, if the wind stays away, anyone hitting it straight could do some real damage this week.

TV Coverage
Live on BBC

Last Ten Winners
2011 - Darren Clarke -5
2010 - Louis Oosthuizen -16
2009 - Stewart Cink -2 (playoff)
2008 - Padraig Harrington +3
2007 - Padraig Harrington -7 (playoff)
2006 - Tiger Woods -18
2005 - Tiger Woods -14
2004 - Todd Hamilton -10 (playoff)
2003 - Ben Curtis -1
2002 - Ernie Els -6 (playoff)

It's all about the weather.
At the time of writing, the forecast suggests wet weather up until the start of the championship, with a threat of it throughout. The wind doesn't look so bad all week until Sunday afternoon but I can't stress enough how important it is to keep checking the forecasts if you're serious about trading this week.

At this stage, it doesn't look as though the draw bias will be too strong either way. Thursday morning starters will get to play the course at its very best but it looks as though those playing on Thursday afternoon-Friday morning will encounter marginally less wind.

What will it take to win the 2012 Open Championship?
A straight game off the tee looks to be the most important factor this week whatever the weather. If the forecast changes and the wind really gets up its going to be a war of attrition and repeatedly hacking out of the rough is going to be particularly damaging. Conversely, if the wind stays away, we could be in for a low scoring week but the only way to attack the greens and make birdies is from the short grass. Either way, a neat and tidy game is essential.

Is there an identikit winner?
For me, the most striking thing is the price of the winners. Massive outsiders have won in recent years (the last three were all matched at over 300.0 before the off) so don't be afraid to get stuck in to some monster-priced selections - it could be your lucky week.

Last week's form might be worth ignoring. Todd Hamilton is the only player to win the Open the week after playing on the US Tour in more than 30 years and the Scottish Open, now played at Castle Stuart links, didn't prove to be the perfect warm-up last year. The only player to finish in the top-20 at both events was George Coetzee. However, three of the top-four at Royal St Georges 12 months ago had played the Scottish but not fared well. The winner, Darren Clarke, tied for 66th, the third placed finisher, Phil Mickelson, had tied for 58th and Thomas Bjorn, who took fourth, had missed the cut in Scotland.

In-Play Tactics
It's all about the in-play for me this week. In 2001, thanks largely to the breeze picking up on Saturday afternoon, the field bunched-up considerably but in other years at Lytham the field has strung out by the weekend, with few contenders left and I'm going to spend the first two days trying to build a book.

In a vibrant market, with day long TV and radio coverage, a sound knowledge of the course and a keen eye on the weather, I hope to trade myself into a good position before halfway. As a general rule of thumb, you need to be up with the pace early at the Open, so all the hard work needs to be done in the first two days. In the last eight years, Padraig Harrington is the only winner to have been further back than 6th after day one. You need to get out of the gates and get going - snooze and you lose!

Market Leaders
Tiger Woods could return to the top of the world rankings with a win and if he adopts his famous stinger tactics and stays out of the thick stuff it's definitely a possibility but he's too short for my liking. He didn't fare well here in his pomp, why should he do so now?

You'd be hard-pressed to find an Englishman not cheering on Lee Westwood this week and you haven't found one here but the fact is, he still hasn't bagged a major and it's more than a bit worrying that he topped the Greens In Regulation stats for the first two days at last year's Open yet missed the cut! He'll need his putter to behave for once and he'll need to scramble very well. He's not for me either.

Similar sentiments can be said of Luke Donald. Lytham could have been made for either him or Lee but whereas the short game's the worry with Westwood, it's the long game that concerns me with Luke, and again, if there's value there, I can't see it.

Padraig Harrington is an extraordinarily short price given how long it is since he got his head in front. He has, of course, already won this championship twice already but I can't for the life of me see why he's so short this time around.

Last of the big five is Rory McIlroy and if the wind doesn't blow too hard he could go well. For once, he's not a ridiculously short price, but I'd be worried about the weather, he still hasn't shown me he can scrap it out in anything close to adverse conditions and for that reason I can't entertain him from the get-go.

2012 Open Championship Pre-Event Selections
Picks are plentiful but very modestly backed. To put it into context, I staked almost as much on Steve Stricker at last week's John Deere Classic as I have on my many pre-event wagers combined here. As stated earlier, it's all about the in-play for me this week but given I can't see any value at the front of the market, I can see plenty elsewhere. And given the strong record of outsiders, backing plenty of big-priced players before the off makes sense.

Phil Mickelson 46.0 - I had a very small wager on Lefty as he made his move in Scotland last week. After last year's runner-up finish, could he finally have fallen in love with links golf? He's my all-time favourite player and I couldn't leave him out after I saw him playing so well at Castle Stuart.

Ernie Els 55.0 - My idea of the best value below those quoted at triple-figure prices. Having finished second in 1996 and third in 2001, nobody in the field boasts better course form and with a dozen top-ten finishes from 20 Open championship starts, nobody has better event form either. Mike Norman makes an excellent case for the Big Easy here and as Romilly Evans points out here, age is no barrier for the in-form again South African.

Hunter Mahan 60.0 - The last of my wagers to be matched and the one I could have happily gone to war without. Americans have a great record at Lytham and Hunter certainly has the straight long game required. He's a streaky player and I can just see him going on a birdie run or two and contending. Twice a winner already this year, and at the peak of his powers, this course should fit his eye well. My concern is his short game. He'll need to get his irons dialled-in because scrambling is not Hunter's forte. Just about value at the price though.

Nicolas Colsaerts 80.0 - Possibly the one I now regret. Backed a few weeks ago at just 80.0, the big-hitting Belgian is a fine links exponent but he doesn't win as often as he should and he hasn't impressed since I backed him either.

Thomas Bjorn 100.0 - Has the game whatever the weather. The likable Dane is more than capable of getting hot and shooting low. He's also adept at handling tough conditions and has a fine record in this major.

Ben Curtis 130.0 - Because Pau's right. Ben's one of Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me A 100 Winner picks and he does tick a lot of boxes. He was my big fancy in 2009 when he led after day one before losing the plot. I needed persuading to get with him again but Paul's done that.

Retief Goosen 160.0 - Another one backed too soon! Given he finished in the top-ten at last month's US Open, I thought I'd secured a great price when he went on a run at the Open de France a fortnight ago and I still do but he's getting on for 200.0 now! Now long in the tooth and very hard to get across the line, I can see the argument for opposing The Goose, but not at this price.

Branden Grace 180.0 - Can he make his fourth win in 2012 a major one? Very much the surprise package of this year's European Tour season, Grace is a fine links player and as he's been a pick for me the last two weeks, he's drifted to a price that I felt was just too big to ignore this week. Could it be third time lucky?

Darren Clarke 200.0 - The defending champ and too big to emulate Harrington and repeat the feat. Clarke also contested here in 2001 before a double-bogey did for his chances late on. Don't be fooled by his poor form this year, he'll not relinquish his grip on the Claret Jug without a fight.

Jamie Donaldson 200.0 - Can he go one better than fellow Welshman Dave Thomas? Peter Thompson beat Thomas in a playoff here in 1958. After Donaldson's impressive win at Royal Portrush (another Open venue) just two weeks ago, like Paul, I'm surprised to see him as big as he is.

Thorbjorn Olesen 270.0 - Another Dane in the pre-event pack. There's a danger that Olesen may not quite have the experience to win an event of this magnitude yet but he has the game. Big future and a big price, and well worth risking a few pounds on.

Chad Campbell 500.0 - Fifth last year justifies the price alone. Chad is a multiple winner who will relish any wind and he was simply too big to be left out.

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 600.0 - A neat and tidy Spaniard, with a win in the last 12 months, can he emulate Seve?

James Morrison 600.0 - He's as straight as they come off the tee. He's a regular bet I have and a tiny sentimental play this week.

Lucas Glover 610.0 - He's simply a stupid price. A US Open winner who won at the immensely tough Quail Hollow a little over a year ago before contending at this event. He's out of form but so what, that's more than in the price.

Johnson Wagner 750.0 - Johnson's the final pick and he's another at a crazy price. A multiple winner on the PGA Tour and a fine wind exponent, he's making his event debut but he might just love it.

Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ 46.0
Ernie Els @ 55.0
Hunter Mahan @ 60.0
Nicolas Colsaerts @ 80.0
Thomas Bjorn @ 100.0
Ben Curtis @ 130.0
Retief Goosen @ 160.0
Branden Grace @ 180.0
Darren Clarke 200.0
Jamie Donaldson @ 200.0
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 270.0
Chad Campbell @ 500.0
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ 590.0
James Morrison @ 600.0
Lucas Glover @ 610.0
Johnson Wagner @ 750.0

For more Open betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/the-open/

Barring the Ryder Cup, the Open Championship has to be my favourite tournament of the year. Not least because it's the only chance we Brits get to watch a Major championship during daylight hours!

There's also something really schadenfreude about watching spectators, players, and officials reach a state of hyperthermia, in supposedly the height of summer, whilst you're watching from an armchair with a hot drink and a pork pie in your hand. It doesn't have to be a pork pie of course, but the pleasure's still the same.

So who likes the cold, who likes links golf, who can hit a straight shot with rain belting into their faces, and just who can get around Royal Lytham & St Annes four times in the least shots. No-one at this stage knows the exact answer, but an in-form player is usually a good starting point.


The Open Championship

(Tournaments used: Each of the last eight tournaments on the European and PGA Tours PLUS the Open Championship 2001 & 2007-2011 inclusive)


Francesco Molinari (4)... 27
Zach Johnson (2)... 25
Padraig Harrington (2)... 24.5 (Won 2008, Won 2007)
Ernie Els (2)... 23 (T10 2009, T10 2008, T5 2007, T5 2001)
Lee Westwood (2)... 22 (T5 2010, T5 2009)
Tiger Woods (2)... 22
Ross Fisher (4)... 19


*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in last six weeks/tournaments on tour
**information after a player's points relates to wins (W), top-five (T5) and top-10 (T10) finishes in corresponding tournament in previous five years and in 2001.


Few players are in better form than Ross Fisher (95.0) at present, and although I don't fancy him massively to win this week's Open, I'd probably throw myself off a cliff if he were to win without me backing him.

Regular readers - of I know at least one - will know that Fisher has been one of my selections on the last two occasions that he's tee'd it up, and having backed Darren Clarke at huge odds the week before he won last year's Open (and then not having a penny on at Royal St George's) the lesson is well embedded in the grey matter.

In form duo Francesco Molinari (50.0) and Zach Johnson (85.0) have to be respected, but with little or no Open Championship/links form to their name they are easily overlooked.

As too is tournament favourite Tiger Woods (9.8). A missed cut last time out is a worry, especially when he was in such good form prior, and around this extremely tight set-up he's not for me at a single figure price.

Next in this week's ratings is Padraig Harrington, and he was someone I was very keen to get onside until I saw that he was available to back at just 20.0. Twice an Open Championship winner, recent form suggesting he is returning to his best - it's pretty easy to see why he is so popular in the market. But I'd still want at least 40.0 to get involved and I'm not going to get matched at those odds so I'm out.

So onto the two players that I will be backing alongside Fisher this week, starting with my main fancy Ernie Els (50.0).

The Big Easy demonstrated some top class form in his attempt to qualify for this year's Masters and has since lost out in a play-off in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans as well as recording top-10 finishes in both the BMW PGA Championship and US Open. At his best Els is a genius at negotiating his way around tough Open Championship links courses like the one he'll encounter this week, and I see no reason why he can't contend like he did here in 1996 (finished second) and 2001 (third).

Lee Westwood's (17.0) credentials need little explaining. As one of the very best players in the world from tee to green he will set himself up with more birdie opportunities than most this week. As I seem to say every time I back him, if his putter just remotely behaves, and with a bit of luck from time to time, he has the ability to run away with an event like this.

I've been on Westwood to win this event for a long time now, and I'm not about to suggest anyone should desert him in the next few days.

Other players that I've had small wagers on who just fall short of making this week's Form Guide list include the likes of Sergio Garcia (40.0) and Thomas Bjorn (120.0). Both need no introduction to links courses, have performed well in previous Opens, and have shown enough form over the last 12 months or so to suggest they can go well.


Recommended Bets

Lee Westwood @ 17.0
Ernie Els @ 50.0
Ross Fisher @ 95.0
Sergio Garcia @ 40.0
Thomas Bjorn @ 120.0

For more Open betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/the-open/

Keep a relentlessly close eye on the weather forecast
At risk of stating the obvious, watching the weather is never more important to golf betting than during an Open Championship. A good or bad draw as regards wind speed can make the difference between shooting 65 and 75 and often proves a fatal handicap. Moreover, a change in wind direction requires radical changes to any in-running plan. The current forecast predicts relatively light winds and plenty of rain both before and during the event, suggesting no significant draw advantage over the first two rounds. Keep checking though, as forecasts change fast.

Greens in regulation is the key stat to follow, supported by driving accuracy and putting
Britain's wet summer means the Open layout will be as penal as ever, with extremely dense rough complementing more than 200 bunkers. Quite simply, there will be no hiding place for anyone struggling for accuracy off the tee or with their irons. In contrast, this track does offer plenty of birdie opportunities for those keeping their ball in-play. The last three Opens at Lytham all produced double-digits under par winning totals and if that forecast is correct, the wind will offer little defence.

From a stats perspective, focus principally on greens in regulation and ball-striking, along with driving accuracy and putting average. Equally, driving distance is virtually irrelevant, removing the key advantage of bombers like Masters champ Bubba Watson, Nicolas Colsaerts and Alvaro Quiros.

Conditions point towards another American winner
High-class Americans won the last two Lytham Opens and, again depending on an accurate weather forecast, conditions could favour their best players once again. With rain expected throughout the week, the greens will be receptive, removing a key defence of any links course and with it an area of 'home advantage'. In addition to avoiding the severe winds that have so often ruined their Open chances, PGA Tour regulars will appreciate the ability to attack pins like they're used to in the States. Applying the stats criteria laid out above, the best American hopes are Tiger Woods, Jason Dufner, Hunter Mahan, Rickie Fowler and Ben Curtis.

Expect frequent leaderboard changes and market volatility in-running. Back high, lay low!
The last Lytham Open was the first ever traded on Betfair and stirs fond memories. While this major usually provides a great in-running betting heat, 2001 was one of the best ever. At halfway, leader Colin Montgomerie and close-up Tiger Woods dominated the market, taking out over 50% of the book between them. Yet within a few holes on Saturday, both were also-rans while the lead seemed to change hands every other minute. Twenty-three players started Sunday within three shots of the lead, setting up a dramatic, volatile final day of betting, that instantly converted many of us to golf trading.

Eventual three-shot winner David Duval came back from seven shots behind at halfway, so don't be afraid to take big prices about similar picks from way back.

For more Open betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/the-open/

Sir Alex Ferguson's default stance during transfer windows is usually to play down the possibility of further business, however the Manchester United manager has confirmed that his side's summer activity is not yet complete.

The 19-time English champions, who were dethroned on goal difference by Manchester City last season, have already invested around £20 million in Borussia Dortmund attacking midfielder Shinji Kagawa and Crewe youngster Nick Powell.

However, despite missing out by the narrowest margin in May and their neighbours not yet entering the market, Ferguson is of the opinion that there is more work to be done.

He said: "We could possibly bring one, maybe two, more in. When there's a major international tournament on, there's a delay in the transfer market. But now the European Championship is over, we're trying to bring someone in."

Though Ferguson has revealed that both Powell and his former Crewe mentor Dario Gradi both view the 18-year-old as a central midfielder, another addition in that position is also rumoured, with this likely to be Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs' final campaign.

Enhancing the case for it being an area requiring reinforcement is the news that Darren Fletcher won't be returning any time soon, having been unavailable since last December due to a chronic bowel complaint.

The other position in which a signing is expected is at left back, with the decision to loan Fabio da Silva to QPR leaving Patrice Evra as the only natural fit for the role.

Everton defender Leighton Baines is the name that has cropped up most frequently with regards to that vacancy, so much so that the England international has acknowledged the speculation himself. His current club are alleged to be demanding around £16 million.

Manchester United are rated 3.5 second favourites to win the Premier League in 2012/13, a reasonable distance behind champions Manchester City, who are 2.28, but some way clear of Chelsea 6.4 and Arsenal 15.5.

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

In a fairly wide-ranging first press conference as Tottenham manager, Andre Villas-Boas rejected the opportunity to play down expectations, instead agreeing with former boss Harry Redknapp that the foundations are in place to challenge for the title.

It was also encouragingly noticeable that, in contrast to his arrival at Chelsea in which he swiftly made it clear that he was keen to overhaul the side that he inherited, the Portuguese tactician spoke about building on the work of his predecessor.

He said: "We have to try to put Tottenham on the road for titles...Last year the squad started extremely well. The belief was there and the margin was there for Tottenham to win the title.

"If we are able to take the squad to the levels of ambition we want, it is something we can think of. We just have to continue with the quality work that Harry left us."

Joining the elite group of Premier League winners which currently features just Manchester United, Blackburn, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City is likely to take more than a season, as illustrated by odds of 38.0, especially if Luka Modric leaves.

Without outright confirming that the in-demand Croatian playmaker will be off, Villas-Boas admitted that it is a strong possibility, in addition to revealing that rumours of interest in Porto midfielder Joao Moutinho have substance.

He said: "The interest that we have from various different clubs shows the importance of the player and what he's done for Tottenham...Ongoing discussions will continue with these clubs until we reach an agreement which is acceptable for each party."

One member of last season's squad that the incoming boss is determined to retain is loan star Emmanuel Adebayor, with the 34-year-old stating that "it will be a lie if I say we are not looking for a striker and Ade is part of that list".

Andy Carroll isn't though, the highlight of the briefing besides his rather bold attempt to claim credit for performing the groundwork for Chelsea's Champions League success being his blunt dismissal of that speculation.

He said: "I'm not sure of Liverpool's intentions on Andy Carroll but it's certainly not a player we are looking for." Spurs, who also announced that Steffan Freund will be their new assistant head coach, are 2.86 to finish in the top four in AVB's first campaign.

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

Jose Mourinho was the Special One. So ever since Mourinho rang up Watford to persuade them to give Brendan Rodgers his first job as a manager, Liverpool's new boss has been referred to as "The Special One's Special One."

We got to understand that billing last season. His Swansea side became everybody's second favourite side, the team you almost didn't mind losing to because of the way they passed the ball. Probably the only people who hated what Rodgers did on a shoestring budget were the assortment of managers who either lost their jobs, or found themselves under massive pressure, because their own expensively built team looked so poor in comparison.

That track record in South Wales is almost certainly why Rodgers is setting off on Liverpool's American pre-season tour this week with so much goodwill behind him. Take a look at the local papers on Merseyside and everybody is backing Brendan. Roy Evans says he'll do a great job. Craig Bellamy is full of praise. Jamie Carragher is excited about working with him.

And Betfair's punters share the optimism. A few months after the Anfield club finished eighth under Kenny Dalglish, Rodgers is heading towards the new season with his club odds-on at 1.55 for a top six finish. They are as tight as 3.75 to return to the Champions League with a top four finish.

Well sorry, but at the moment I think the value is in laying both bets. First of all if you check out Rodgers' track record, the one thing you can't expect is immediate results at the start of the new season. His style of football tends to mark a sea change when he takes over a club and there is always a learning curve to go through.
At Watford he took just nine points from his first ten games. The transition from Aidy Boothroyd's direct approach to his passing game was described as going from route one to Route 66. When he moved to Reading the players struggled again to take his ideas on board and they were in the Championship relegation zone when he was sacked five months into the job. Even at Swansea, where he inherited players used to passing the ball under Paulo Sousa, he lost half his first eight games while they settled into his new regime.

At Anfield if he wants to crack the top four - or even the top six - there won't be time for a slow start while the squad settle into his ideas. And it's not as if he's got a massive budget to bring in his own men to help the process along. He's already missed out on Gylfi Sigurdsson because Tottenham offered a bigger pay packet. He's now linked with Italian Under 21 international striker Fabio Borini, who is obviously unproven in English football.

It all points to a difficult start for Rodgers, and then it will be a question of how well he can handle the pressure that moving to one of the Premier League's elite clubs will bring. His experience of the media as a Premier League manager so far is limited to explaining his success . When you first have to deal with the glaring worldwide examination into things going wrong, it's a substantial ordeal.

Liverpool's supporters have already been split in phone-ins over whether Rodgers has the credentials to take over from their idol Kenny Dalglish. A poor start would only magnify that debate on TV and radio stations up and down the country, and pile some pressure onto players and staff.

Don't get me wrong. Rodgers may well turn out to be as special as Mourinho forecast. But it will take time, and while that is happening, if you've laid Liverpool at short odds now you should be able to turn the market green. You can then feel pretty special yourself at making a profit whatever happens next.

For more football betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/football/

This year has simmered with shock and story so far for the sport of boxing with yet-to-be deciphered drug scandals and controversial upsets. And now we have a bout with traces of the Wild West if not the essence and origin of the sport itself on our doorstep and everyone is talking about it. Whether you agree or not; like it or loathe it; are in or out; David Haye against Dereck Chisora in London is a ticket seller and as ringside reporter for BoxNation on Saturday, I'm in.

This is a fight that Haye wouldn't have considered worthy last year but the dramatic events that followed Chiosora's valiant, losing effort against Vitali Klitschko in February lent the match a simmering inevitability.

I was in Munich that night when post-fight punches were thrown and blood was spilled; when a beer bottle and a tripod became infamous but missed the whole thing because I was calling another fight from the TV truck. You'll have seen the chaotic footage one way or another as tickets continue to sell. Upton Park will be rammed to the rafters this weekend as punters salivate at the prospect of seeing some of that blood again.

Haye went to Munich as guest pundit for BoxNation but in reality he was there to tease Vitali into a prospective, legitimate scrap. That idea backfired wildly, largely because Chisora often acts before he thinks and is usually one small step away from doing something ridiculous if not juvenile. That was the same weekend Chisora slapped Vitali at the weigh-in and spat water on Vladimir's face in the ring. Expect the usual head-to-head to be conducted from a distance in the lead up to Saturday.

No surprise then that most punters, pundits and fans are looking forward to this with a violent intrigue, so much so it's easy to forget the facts. Important among them is the fact that Haye (1.39) is a much, much more talented boxer than Chisora (3.85).

It is not just that Haye has been a two-weight World Champion and has generally fought at a higher level but technically Haye is an artisan to Chisora the rock breaker. It is difficult painting comparisons without seeming rude but Haye is sharper, faster, hits properly and to my eye, is simply levels above Chisora. That's not to say that chipping away at big boulders won't have the desired effect mind you. And therein lays the potential subplot.

Regardless of everything else (remember he was biting an opponent's ear long before the Munich incidents) Chisora is a tough fighter. He went 12 rounds with Tyson Fury when he was ridiculously out of shape and then kept ramming Klitschko when losing nearly every minute of every round last time.

Let's be clear, the Zimbabwe-born Londoner has the style and the wilfulness to give Haye problems, if not to pull this off. But perspective is needed and despite the Klitschko effort (remember Vitali is 40 now and hurt his arm early) and the unlucky decision against Helenius for the European Title, Chisora's stand-out win was a late stoppage over Sam Sexton who was recently hammered by David Price and who, let's be honest, wouldn't be allowed in the same ring as Haye.

Personally, I think a slow, come-forward fighter like Chisora is made for Haye, a little like John Ruiz who Haye dropped four times en route to a stunning ninth round win two years ago. If Haye is fit and focused, this fight is right up his alley and Chisora will frequently, if not always, be in the firing line.

I wouldn't say this is a mismatch like the Audley Harrison fight which Haye won in three rounds a year-and-a-half ago; Chisora is too tough for that comparison. But 'Del Boy' wouldn't have Audley's skill or punch, the Finchley man will rely on brute strength, will and the belief that he can simply wear Haye down. There are many who likewise believe that Haye lacks stamina and can't take a punch but he took the few that Vladimir Klitschko landed and he avoided plenty more. If Klitschko, one of the best athletes the heavyweight division has seen, couldn't get to Haye, Chisora has absolutely no chance.

This fight revolves around Haye entirely as much as it does the amount of leather Dereck Chisora can absorb. No doubt Haye has been evasive and less proactive in fights against more dangerous big men but he has been explosive and clinical in fights he knows he can win. This is such a fight.

Remember, Haye has 23 stoppages in 25 wins, halting all except the giant Valuev and Klitschko since he moved up to heavyweight. There is a similar weight of expectation among boxing fans this weekend and I suspect the bloodthirsty throng at Upton Park on Saturday will have their way, as Haye ultimately will with Chisora.

Recommended Bet
3pts Back Haye to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 2.68

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Novak Djokovic (1) 1.44 v Roger Federer (3) 3.25 13:00 Centre Court
H-to-H 12-14

This really ought to be the Wimbledon final, it's the reigning champion and world No.1 against the six-time winner and arguably the greatest player of all time... don't miss it.

These two have met 26 times and their head to head record shows Federer with a slight advantage, but recently it's Djokovic who has been on top. Not only has the Serb won six of their last seven encounters, but he has also won four of their last five Grand Slam matches and he hasn't even given Federer a set in their two previous meetings this year. The form points towards a Djokovic win but it's unlikely to bother Federer. The Swiss maestro has supreme confidence in his grass court game and although he certainly had a scare in the third round when he had to come back from two sets down against Benneteau, since then he has looked majestic, in the quarter final on Wednesday he seemed to hit top form when demolishing Mikhail Youzhny in straight sets.

Novak has been relatively untroubled on his route to the semi-final, hardly pushed by any opponent so far and it's hard to tell if this will help or hamper him prepare for his first ever match against Federer on grass. He may take a set to wake up and in which case he will no doubt be punished, but expect the Serb to grow into the match and gain strength as the encounter progresses, four sets with Djokovic booking his place in a fifth consecutive Grand Slam Final looks a strong possibility. Whatever the outcome we are in for a treat...

Selection: Djokovic


Andy Murray (4) 1.45 v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (5) 3.15 15:30 Centre Court
H-to-H 5-1

Is this Murray's year or is it Tim Henman 2001 all over again? In 2001 Roger Federer had removed Pete Sampras from Henman's side of the draw. Henman beat Federer leaving him with an easy semi-final against wild card Ivanisevic. Well that's what we thought and we know what happened - Henman blew his best ever chance.

Murray's nemesis Nadal has been removed, but his task is much harder than Henman's in that he has to face the number five seed Tsonga. Murray has beaten Tsonga twice on grass at Queens in 2011 and Wimbledon in 2010 at the quarter-final stage. Last year Tsonga reached the semi-final where he was beaten by Djokovic who also beat him in his only Grand Slam final in Australia in 2008. Like Murray Tsonga should have won a major by now and probably would have done without the top three.

In many ways Murray and Tsonga are very similar and it's the lack of belief that prevents both of them crossing that final frontier. Tsonga should have beaten Djokovic in Paris this year, but choked. As in boxing where they say styles makes fights, this has the makings of a classic, a puncher against a counter-puncher. Tsonga is the aggressor, bigger serve, more attacks on the net against the arch defender with constant backhand slices, searching for the opening and the mistake.

Both have had similar results at Wimbledon this year, dropping a set in three out of their five matches and at times not looking totally convincing. Tsonga's high octane game leads to mistakes, but he is the exciting player, the one that will make things happen and the one built for grass. The weight of expectation from the whole country may weigh against Murray's home advantage and we expect a fully confidnet Tsonga to reach his second Grand Slam final and cast a whole nation into mourning yet again.

Selection: Tsonga

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There's only two weeks until the Open Championship at Royal Lytham St Annes, but much can change in that time. Those players winning tournaments or even contending strongly over the next fortnight will likely see their odds shorten markedly, so rather than risk missing the boat, it makes sense to back long-range fancies now. Here's four contenders who are likelier to shorten rather than drift, and are recommended as immediate bets.


Rickie Fowler @ 50.0

Rickie has been my leading fancy for this major ever since finishing fifth last year at Sandwich. Considering his inexperience of majors, especially in treacherous British weather, his performance was nothing short of superb. Fowler is obviously a natural when it comes to coping with fierce winds, which can normally be relied upon to appear in Opens on the Lancashire coast. More than any emerging young player, I expect Fowler to rack up multiple Open wins throughout his career. Let's also not forget that Rickie has vastly improved over the past year. He came of age when winning the Quail Hollow Championship and went very close at Sawgrass, (again thriving on the windiest day). Americans have won the last two Lytham Opens and, Tiger Woods aside, Fowler looks their strongest candidate.


Paul Lawrie @ 80.0

Lawrie's renaissance at the age of 43 has been one of this year's surprise stories and the 1999 champion looks well over-priced at 80.0. In reality he is a far better player now than when landing that enormous shock at Carnoustie. Previously, his rare appearances in contention tended to coincide with terrible weather, but the new Lawrie has become a Gulf specialist, finished runner-up at Wentworth and even made the top-25 at Augusta. Its notable that Paul has opted for a lighter schedule than most, swerving the US Open, so we must expect him to arrive at Lytham in tip-top shape and Sunday's closing 66 at Portrush points that way too. When the Open was last held at this Lancashire venue, Lawrie was only four shots back with a round to play.


Nicolas Colsaerts @ 80.0

Again, these are big odds about one of the stars of 2012, reflecting an over-reaction to missing last week's cut. Colsaerts has won the Volvo World Matchplay and enjoyed an outstanding US Open debut, challenging after three rounds. His efforts in the former at Finca Cortesin demonstrated prowess in very windy conditions and there has been further encouragement on links courses. 12 months ago, Colsaerts finished third in the Open-preceding event at Castle Stuart, only to be forced out of the major with an injury. It would be no surprise to see him put up another sterling bid for the Scottish Open next week, forcing these odds to collapse.


Ben Curtis @ 160.0

Rather like Lawrie, it took Curtis a while to shed his image as a fluke winner of this major, but having since added a further three PGA Tour titles he deserves to be taken seriously. Curtis is clearly a good links and bad weather player. While so many of his more illustrious compatriots struggle over here, Ben made further Open top-tens in 2007 and 2008. This season he's won the Texas Open, again in very windy conditions, finished runner-up at Sawgrass and registered six top-15 finishes from his last 11 starts.

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Angelique Kerber (8) 1.7 v Agnieszka Radwanska (3) 2.4 13:00 Centre Court
H-to-H 2-2
Both women have had good seasons in 2012, with Radwanska going from eight to three in the rankings and Kerber doing even better going from 34 to eight. An example of the improvement for Kerber is that at last year's Wimbledon she lost to Laura Robson in the first round. Kerber's advance through the rankings began at last year's US Open, when unseeded and ranked 92 in the world, she made it to the semi-finals, where she was beaten by the eventual winner Stosur. On her way she also accounted for Radwanska in the second round. Kerber is certainly not a flashy player and has more in common with a Nadal or a Djokovic in that she chases everything down. In her quarter-final match against Lisicki it was her dogged determination that pulled her through as Lisicki played the better tennis.

Radwanska dropped her first set in her last match against Kirilenko and has looked like regaining the form with which she started the year. Their last three meetings have gone to three sets and expect this one to do the same with Radwanska to win a close match 2-1 and become the first Polish Wimbledon finalist.

Selection: Radwanska


Serena Williams (6) 1.64 v Victoria Azarenka (2) 2.52 15:00 Centre Court
H-to-H 7-1
Azarenka has cruised through the tournament so far making light work of her opposition, she embarrassed Ivanovic in the fourth round and although she was tested by Paszek in the quarter final she is still to drop a set in the competition. She has had a great season and became the first Belarusian to win a Grand Slam when she took the Australian Open crown earlier in the year. She will be full of confidence and has youth on her side but today she comes up against a determined and rejuvenated Serena Williams who is looking for her 14th Grand Slam.

Although Serena has endured a bumpy road on route to the semis, being taken to a third set by both Zheng and Shvedova, her service game is looking dominant. She still possesses immense power and consistent accuracy on her first serves, she set a new record of 23 aces in the third round, ominous news for Azarenka. They have met once on the grass of Wimbledon before when Serena came out on top but that was back in 2009 when Azarenka was still a teenager, the most recent encounter between the two ladies was when they met in Madrid earlier this year with Serena taking the contest with relative ease 6-3 6-1.

Selection: Williams

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