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Keep a relentlessly close eye on the weather forecast
At risk of stating the obvious, watching the weather is never more important to golf betting than during an Open Championship. A good or bad draw as regards wind speed can make the difference between shooting 65 and 75 and often proves a fatal handicap. Moreover, a change in wind direction requires radical changes to any in-running plan. The current forecast predicts relatively light winds and plenty of rain both before and during the event, suggesting no significant draw advantage over the first two rounds. Keep checking though, as forecasts change fast.

Greens in regulation is the key stat to follow, supported by driving accuracy and putting
Britain's wet summer means the Open layout will be as penal as ever, with extremely dense rough complementing more than 200 bunkers. Quite simply, there will be no hiding place for anyone struggling for accuracy off the tee or with their irons. In contrast, this track does offer plenty of birdie opportunities for those keeping their ball in-play. The last three Opens at Lytham all produced double-digits under par winning totals and if that forecast is correct, the wind will offer little defence.

From a stats perspective, focus principally on greens in regulation and ball-striking, along with driving accuracy and putting average. Equally, driving distance is virtually irrelevant, removing the key advantage of bombers like Masters champ Bubba Watson, Nicolas Colsaerts and Alvaro Quiros.

Conditions point towards another American winner
High-class Americans won the last two Lytham Opens and, again depending on an accurate weather forecast, conditions could favour their best players once again. With rain expected throughout the week, the greens will be receptive, removing a key defence of any links course and with it an area of 'home advantage'. In addition to avoiding the severe winds that have so often ruined their Open chances, PGA Tour regulars will appreciate the ability to attack pins like they're used to in the States. Applying the stats criteria laid out above, the best American hopes are Tiger Woods, Jason Dufner, Hunter Mahan, Rickie Fowler and Ben Curtis.

Expect frequent leaderboard changes and market volatility in-running. Back high, lay low!
The last Lytham Open was the first ever traded on Betfair and stirs fond memories. While this major usually provides a great in-running betting heat, 2001 was one of the best ever. At halfway, leader Colin Montgomerie and close-up Tiger Woods dominated the market, taking out over 50% of the book between them. Yet within a few holes on Saturday, both were also-rans while the lead seemed to change hands every other minute. Twenty-three players started Sunday within three shots of the lead, setting up a dramatic, volatile final day of betting, that instantly converted many of us to golf trading.

Eventual three-shot winner David Duval came back from seven shots behind at halfway, so don't be afraid to take big prices about similar picks from way back.

For more Open betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/the-open/