Barring the Ryder Cup, the Open Championship has to be my favourite tournament of the year. Not least because it's the only chance we Brits get to watch a Major championship during daylight hours!
There's also something really schadenfreude about watching spectators, players, and officials reach a state of hyperthermia, in supposedly the height of summer, whilst you're watching from an armchair with a hot drink and a pork pie in your hand. It doesn't have to be a pork pie of course, but the pleasure's still the same.
So who likes the cold, who likes links golf, who can hit a straight shot with rain belting into their faces, and just who can get around Royal Lytham & St Annes four times in the least shots. No-one at this stage knows the exact answer, but an in-form player is usually a good starting point.
The Open Championship
(Tournaments used: Each of the last eight tournaments on the European and PGA Tours PLUS the Open Championship 2001 & 2007-2011 inclusive)
Francesco Molinari (4)... 27
Zach Johnson (2)... 25
Padraig Harrington (2)... 24.5 (Won 2008, Won 2007)
Ernie Els (2)... 23 (T10 2009, T10 2008, T5 2007, T5 2001)
Lee Westwood (2)... 22 (T5 2010, T5 2009)
Tiger Woods (2)... 22
Ross Fisher (4)... 19
*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in last six weeks/tournaments on tour
**information after a player's points relates to wins (W), top-five (T5) and top-10 (T10) finishes in corresponding tournament in previous five years and in 2001.
Few players are in better form than Ross Fisher (95.0) at present, and although I don't fancy him massively to win this week's Open, I'd probably throw myself off a cliff if he were to win without me backing him.
Regular readers - of I know at least one - will know that Fisher has been one of my selections on the last two occasions that he's tee'd it up, and having backed Darren Clarke at huge odds the week before he won last year's Open (and then not having a penny on at Royal St George's) the lesson is well embedded in the grey matter.
In form duo Francesco Molinari (50.0) and Zach Johnson (85.0) have to be respected, but with little or no Open Championship/links form to their name they are easily overlooked.
As too is tournament favourite Tiger Woods (9.8). A missed cut last time out is a worry, especially when he was in such good form prior, and around this extremely tight set-up he's not for me at a single figure price.
Next in this week's ratings is Padraig Harrington, and he was someone I was very keen to get onside until I saw that he was available to back at just 20.0. Twice an Open Championship winner, recent form suggesting he is returning to his best - it's pretty easy to see why he is so popular in the market. But I'd still want at least 40.0 to get involved and I'm not going to get matched at those odds so I'm out.
So onto the two players that I will be backing alongside Fisher this week, starting with my main fancy Ernie Els (50.0).
The Big Easy demonstrated some top class form in his attempt to qualify for this year's Masters and has since lost out in a play-off in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans as well as recording top-10 finishes in both the BMW PGA Championship and US Open. At his best Els is a genius at negotiating his way around tough Open Championship links courses like the one he'll encounter this week, and I see no reason why he can't contend like he did here in 1996 (finished second) and 2001 (third).
Lee Westwood's (17.0) credentials need little explaining. As one of the very best players in the world from tee to green he will set himself up with more birdie opportunities than most this week. As I seem to say every time I back him, if his putter just remotely behaves, and with a bit of luck from time to time, he has the ability to run away with an event like this.
I've been on Westwood to win this event for a long time now, and I'm not about to suggest anyone should desert him in the next few days.
Other players that I've had small wagers on who just fall short of making this week's Form Guide list include the likes of Sergio Garcia (40.0) and Thomas Bjorn (120.0). Both need no introduction to links courses, have performed well in previous Opens, and have shown enough form over the last 12 months or so to suggest they can go well.
Recommended Bets
Lee Westwood @ 17.0
Ernie Els @ 50.0
Ross Fisher @ 95.0
Sergio Garcia @ 40.0
Thomas Bjorn @ 120.0
For more Open betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-events/the-open/