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I managed to finish off 2010 by predicting all of the individual matches in the Davis Cup Final correctly and getting the correct score right too and at the end of another fascinating year on the ATP World Tour, here are my key moments from the first six months.


Dodgy wrists

The top ten has a different look about it at the end of 2010, with both of last year's ATP World Tour Finalists dropping out due to injured wrists. Juan Martin Del Potro played just three events in 2010 due to his injured wrist and bravely battled to the last 16 of the Australian Open in January before having eight months off. An aborted comeback in September came too soon and the former US Open champion is now ranked 257 in the world. I wish him well for his comeback in Sydney next month. Nikolay Davydenko has endured a similar problem with his wrist and had three months off the tour before coming back unsuccessfully. He is now ranked as low as 22 in the rankings from which point it will be tough for the soon to be 30-year-old.


Murray Mania

The question I get asked most often by far when discussing tennis is 'will Murray win a Slam?' and my answer is usually: 'perhaps, but not while Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are fit'. Things were slightly different in Melbourne this year though. The Brits were starting to believe in the lad from Dunblane. Murray reached the last four of the Australian Open without dropping a set and then beat my longshot Marin Cilic in four to become the first British male to reach two Slam finals in over 70 years. Friends and colleagues were all telling me that Murray would take the title. I wasn't convinced and neither was Federer, who thumped the Scot in straights to signal the start of a slump in form that ultimately led to a split with coach Miles Maclagan.


War of attrition

This year's Wimbledon final has almost been forgotten because of the earlier record breaking clash between Nicolas Mahut and John Isner. The longest tennis match in history by a mile - 665 minutes, 216 aces, and 70-68 to Isner in the deciding set. Totally ridiculous of course and it should bring about a change in the archaic 'two clear games in the final set' rule, but I'd be amazed if the All England Club dragged themselves into the present day to implement it. Mahut went on to lose his doubles match later the same day, while a shattered Isner was beaten in straights in his singles the following day.


An emotional triumph

Perhaps my favourite moment of the year, (although not from a betting perspective, as the man was [600] and I didn't back him) was Ivan Ljubicic's amazing win at Indian Wells. Two days after his 31st birthday the Croat became the first player over the age of 30 to win an ATP Masters 1000 event since Andre Agassi in Cincinnati in 2004. And he didn't do it via the back door either. Ljubicic defeated Djokovic, Nadal and Roddick for the most unlikely win of the year and the popular former world number three was delighted as you would expect. Great credit to him for coming back from a series of injuries to reach the top again after several years in the doldrums.


Berdych surprises

We've all had some fun at Tomas Berdych's expense over the years, most of it self inflicted by the Czech. His capacity to disappoint and surrender was almost legendary and then he goes and reaches the final in Miami, the last four at Roland Garros and the final at Wimbledon, beating Djokovic and Federer (for the loss of just one set) along the way. Was this a dark horse for the US Open I thought? Nope. Post-Wimbledon, the Berdman went 9-14 win/loss until the end of the season. Normal service was resumed once more. He admitted to feeling the weight of expectation after SW19 and his bottle went again. Oh well, at least he starts 2011 at a career high of six in the rankings. Let's see how he goes in the New Year.


By Sean Calvert

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For the last four seasons you haven't had to look beyond Manchester United and Chelsea for the winner of the golden boot. Whoever tops the scoring charts at Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge come May will have a very good chance of being number one over all but it's by no means a done deal because so far the hit parade has a very different look to it.

Of the players who finished in last season's top 10 only three - Didier Drogba, Darren Bent and Carlos Tevez - occupy places in it at the moment. Three of last campaign's sharp shooters - Wayne Rooney, Frank Lampard and Jermaine Defoe - are nowhere to be seen. Chelsea don't seem to be able to put a time frame on Lampard's return and whilst Rooney and Defoe are now back from injury they only have one league goal between them which is surely too much ground to make up with nearly half of the season gone.

So what is the criteria for a potential winner? Firstly you need someone who's guaranteed to start the vast majority of their club's games when fit; current leader Dimitar Berbatov could be found lacking in this department. He's available at 6.0 but has started 12 out of 16 games for United which is not that high a number given Rooney's absence. Now the England man is back, the Bulgarian could be warming the bench if he has a poor spell.

Secondly, you need someone who's part of a free-scoring side and it's in this area that Carlos Tevez could struggle. The Argentinian's netted 10 times already but Manchester City are only mid-table in terms of goals scored with 21 and given manager Roberto Mancini's style of play, he's unlikely to be able to boost his total with a glut of goals in a game like his United rival. Tevez is favourite at 4.6 but it's not that tempting a price.

So who does meet the above criteria? Didier Drogba's does and at the moment he's generously priced at 7.0 given that he finished top last season, has seven goals, and plays for the third highest scoring team in the league. Another is a newcomer in Marouane Chamakh. The Morroccan may not have expected to play as much as he has for Arsenal since signing in the summer but after seven strikes in 15 starts he's now the recognised spearhead in the division's most prolific side and can only be helped by the return of Robin Van Persie. At 22.0 Chamakh looks a good outside bet.

The most attractive proposition may well be Fernando Torres. After a horrible World Cup the Spaniard has a point to prove and with five goals he's by no means too far back to mount a charge. Liverpool haven't set the league alight but their 20 goals have come from nine different scorers which proves they possess creative options. The 26-year-old's been in the top 10 every season since arriving at Anfield and boasts 61 premier league goals in 94 appearances despite supposed problems with form and fitness. At 14.0 he really is too good to miss.


By Andrew Clarke

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I thought the difficult thing about discussing the Ashes would be finding a good bet. I'm already sat happily anticipating a huge profit on backing England to win the series, and after the Adelaide Test it seems the rest of Betfair's punters have got on too, if a tad late, as the price is down to 1.55 with little value left.

It was way back in June that I put my money on. I'd sat down with Sky's David Lloyd to do the Betfair Big Interview, and got carried away with his insistence that supporting Andrew Strauss and co at odds of 4.0 was "a licence to print money".

It looks as if he knew what he was talking about, which is also good news for Victim Support Manchester who should pick up a few bob when Bumble's charity bet pays out. Where he got it most right was to question the strength of Australia's bowling attack, which has been utterly humbled so far.

Quite simply the Aussies are in disarray this morning, with calls for Ricky Ponting to be sacked. There's even the laughable suggestion that Shane Warne might return as skipper. That would actually weaken their bowling even further. I know he still played in last year's edition of the IPL to make a few quid and that his legend might restore some morale to the dressing room. But there's no way he could be fit enough to get through the sort of 25-over spell that is demanded of a Test match spinner. It would be like asking Alan Shearer not only to return to Newcastle as manager but play centre forward too, just because he got a couple of goals in a charity match.

With Xavier Doherty smashed out of sight, and Doug Bollinger looking anything but a potential match-winner, the selectors look like crawling back to Nathan Hauritz and Mitchell Johnson - or taking a punt on 21-year-old leg spinner Steve Smith who was hammered all round the place by Ian Bell when he turned out for an Australia A team last month.

There is just a week for Ponting, assuming he stays in charge, and his four selectors Andrew Hilditch, Greg Chappell, David Boon and Jamie Cox to come up with an answer. And quite simply it's impossible in that time for them to find an attack that could take 20 wickets when in two matches they've managed only 16 - and ten of those were on an adrenaline-fuelled first day in Brisbane.

I'm not saying the Aussies can't win one of the three remaining Tests. And it's unlikely but yes they could even scramble a draw in the other two and level the series. The batting still has strength if Ponting recovers his fighting spirit and Michael Hussey stays in form. But they can't win in Perth. They can't solve so many problems with their bowling that quickly. They can't take 20 wickets against England's line-up that even without Stuart Broad bats so deep down the order.

So here's the great thing - it seems Betfair's punters are still scared of the Australian reputation and history because they are as short as 3.25 to bounce back with an immediate win, and there's more than £1,000 waiting to be laid at 3.3. As Bumble would say, it's a licence to print money.


Five things you might not know about Steve Smith

1.Born June 1989 in Sydney, his full name is Steven Peter Devereux Smith.

2.His mum Gillian is English and as a teenager he came over to play club cricket for Sevenoaks Vine in the Kent cricket league and was offered a contract by Surrey.

3.Dad Peter, who had persuaded him to switch from pace bowling to take up leg spin at the age of 12 because he wasn't going to be tall enough to be a quick, encouraged him to go back Down Under instead.

4.He captained Sydney club Sutherland at the age of 19, and won the Steve Waugh medal as New South Wales player of the year.

5.He averages 43.43 with the bat in first class cricket - nearly as many as his bowling average which is 50.54.


By Ralph Ellis

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The Dallas Mavericks recorded their tenth straight victory on Tuesday night with a 105-100 defeat of the Golden State Warriors. This veteran team has been in irresistible form in the early part of the season. The Mavs are currently in second place in the Western Conference with a record of 17-4.

The Mavericks are a relatively young franchise. They were founded by businessman Donald Carter in 1980 and quickly developed into a very good team in the highly competitive Western Conference. Led by Mark Aguirre, Derek Harper and Detlef Schrempf, the Mavericks made the playoffs six times from 1983-1990.

The 90's were not so kind to Dallas and the team failed to make the playoffs from 1991-2000.The reason for this sharp decline was mainly attributed to off court distractions. In 1995 Forward Roy Tarpley was expelled from the league after losing his fight with substance abuse. This scandal along with injuries to several key players made this a decade to forget for the Mavs.
　
In January 2000 a new era began in Dallas when entrepreneur Mark Cuban bought the team for $285. Cuban invested heavily and they returned to prominence. In 2006 the Mavericks made their first NBA finals appearance against the Miami Heat. They were heavily favoured to win the championship but lost the series 4-2.

The only remaining starter from the 2006 team is German born Dirk Nowitzki. This superstar center is one of the most explosive players in the game and has scored over 20,000 points in his career. Nowitzki is 32-years-old and is desperate to win an NBA championship before he retires.

There is enough talent in the current rotation to suggest that the Mavericks are legitimate title contenders.

Jason Kidd who is having a superb year. This veteran point guard is passing the ball with supreme confidence even at the ripe old age of 37. He has a good understanding with Dirk Nowitzki and is a huge asset. Another talented player is small forward Caron Butler. He joined the team from Washington in February and is averaging 14 points per game.
　
The Mavericks are currently priced at 20.0 to win the NBA Championship. I think that price is a little long as they have already beaten Miami and Boston in the Eastern Conference and show no signs of letting up.

Dallas has a pretty easy schedule coming up and it would be foolish to oppose them in the short term. On Thursday they start a five game home stand against New Jersey, Utah, Milwaukee, Portland and Phoenix. I think they are capable of winning at least four or perhaps all five games before they embark on a three game road trip.
　
The Dallas Mavericks are one of the most consistent teams in the NBA. They have made the playoffs every year for the past ten years but have yet to win a championship. If they continue to play at this level that elusive NBA title could be within their grasp.


By Nick Shiambouros

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So here we are then - the end is nigh. Saturday nights will once more be yours. The trouble with the final weekend of the X Factor however, is that come Monday, the unemployment figures in this country will have swelled faster than Cash Warren on his wedding night (oh, Google it or something).

Indeed, reading the news this week, it appears that being OFF the show is truly awful. Waissell is in bits, Wagner can't get his bennies - it's the stuff of nightmares.

Enough of these losers however - who will win, that's what the world wants to know. Well, our tip is One Direction. During the inevitable victorious-homecoming segment of the final show, viewers will be treated to scenes of insane mobs of screaming girls. These same girls will presumably stay up all weekend hysterically prodding redial with their tearful swollen thumbs, in the vain hope that it might make Harry love them. The truth is they would be better prodding those thumbs into the floor to try and do some press-ups. The chaps from OneD are second favourite to land the big 'un at a tempting 3.95.

Cher meanwhile, has hijacked any remaining hatred on offer, once Katie Waissell had finally been bundled off the show. At last count, she was at blame for everything that is wrong with the world, and was the least popular person on Twitter whatever that means. Consequently she won't win, but might make an intriguing punt to come third at 5.5, or even best female at 6.4. Those who polarise opinion still have their legions of fans. Like Marmite. Or the Nazis.

Rebecca seems to be the thinking man's choice, with her meowing cat vocals and Sade sense of style, but some might feel that she doesn't quite has the personality to do it. Those people should possibly cast their minds back to Leona Lewis, who had the voice of an angel, but a void behind the eyes when it came to backing and forthing with Dermot O'Really, or Kate Thorntons or whoever it was back then. Fergie, as nobody calls her, is 4.9 to win, and 1.62 to reach the final two.

Matt has seemed the "most likely to" from the start, and there's probably no change there (currently trading at 1.89). The sympathy-voters will have felt sorry for him last week, because he was a bit poorly, and since many believe it damn near impossible for a group to win this thing, the prize is certainly well within his grasp. Crucially, his on-off relationship with the woman behind the scenes who smears eye gunk all over Cher appears to be OFF. Voting girls will like that. And that kids, could make all the difference.


By Eliot Pollak

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Could market favourite be defeated by the social media? Twitter and Facebook stats are a worry for McCoy supporters...


Tony McCoy currently trades as the 2.1 favourite on Betfair for the BBC's Sports Personality Of the Year award - he is generally an odds-on chance elsewhere - but is even that industry-best price too short?

Looking at the opposition, the answer is surely yes.

Horseracing is sure to get behind McCoy in the next week or so, and there is probably no-one as deserving of the award than he, for his unremitting excellence in his field over the past two decades.

And, remember, you don't need a lot of votes to win the award, because it isn't that popular with the general public. Last year, Ryan Giggs won by a furlong, hard held. But he only attracted 151,842 votes, from a total of just 516,473 cast.

So a concerted campaign by horseracing could work, although McCoy's boycott of Racing UK won't aid his cause.

This is no weak field that he is up against, though.

Jessica Ennis finished third last year but she is only eighth of ten in the current Betfair betting.

Graeme McDowell is immensely popular on the social media circuit as well as on the golf course, and both are key to winning SPOTY these days. He won the US Open this year, sealed the deal for the Ryder Cup and shared the European Golfer of the Year award with Martin Kaymer.

But he also has 55,584 Twitter followers and just under 10,000 Facebook fans - and those are very strong numbers bearing in mind the number of votes that Giggs won with last year. McCoy has 2,853 Twitter followers and under 2,000 Facebook friends.

Lee Westwood won the Nedbank Challenge at the weekend to cement his position as the world's best golfer. And Phil Taylor has been as dominant in his sport as McCoy has been in horseracing, perhaps even more so in terms of high-profile victories, year in, year out.

Graeme Swann's five wicket haul in the second innings in Adelaide puts him bang into the voting public's recent consciousness at the right time (and England could well have effectively retained the Ashes by SPOTY night), and the sad fact for racing fans is that the likes of Amy Williams and Tom Daley are probably as recognisable as McCoy to the general public.

Odds of 2.1 look a touch skinny, in that light.

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin commented: "Everyone in horseracing will be rooting for McCoy in the coming days. But Betfair customers are perhaps a more hard-headed bunch than most, and it wouldn't surprise me to see his price drift.

"Because even odds of 11-10 look to underplay the strength of this year's opposition, and the potential of the social media network."


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Grand Prix racing is a sport for young men. And they are getting younger. Sebastian Vettel has just become Formula One's youngest ever world champion at the tender age of 23, knocking a couple of months off Lewis Hamilton's record.

And neither of them should think there aren't another wave of ambitious boy racers waiting in the wings. Lewis Williamson will have an F1 test drive with Hamilton's McLaren team soon after landing the prestigious McLaren Autosport BRDC award last night.

But when the 2011 season starts Vettel will still have pretty fierce competition from one of the game's "old men" in his Red Bull team-mate Mark Webber. The Aussie, 34 now, should have held off the young German's progress this season but threw away an 11 point lead with four races left. And today he's owned up to the reason why his season collapsed so badly - he raced those last decisive contests with a broken shoulder after injuring himself riding a mountain bike on the morning before the Japanese Grand Prix.

Quite what he was doing preparing for a big race by putting himself at risk, who knows? He's owned up to the accident in his new book. It's hard to imagine that Red Bull's team boss Christian Horner will be too happy to find out about it now, either. Webber kept the injury secret from Horner, owning up at the time only to his physio Roger Cleary and F1's chief medical officer Gary Hartstein as he got through the last weeks of the season with pain killing cortisone injections.

Curiously Webber didn't mention the episode when I saw him appear on Shane Warne's Australian TV chat show a week or so ago. He was obviously waiting to flog a few extra books by confessing now. But one thing he did make clear is that his rivalry with Vettel will burn every bit as bright next season. That, to me, is a good reason to make a little long term investment now and lay Vettel, the current 4.2 favourite, for next year's Drivers' Championship.

Nobody has succesfully defended motor sport's most glamorous prize since Fernando Alonso in 2006, a sign of the increased competition since Michael Schumacher's strangle hold on Formula One in his glittering red Ferrari came to an end. And I'm not at all convinced that Vettel is the finished article as a driver yet. He had the fastest car this year but still contrived to make a succession of mistakes that should have held him back from winning the crown. And with a winter of testing and development ahead, who is to say which team will come up with the brightest engineering advances next spring?

Even if Red Bull continue to dominate in the garage, expect Webber to rival the young German on the track - and he made it clear in his Aussie chat show appearance that he's demanded, and been promised, equal treatment in 2011.

It was about this time last year that I opposed Jenson Button's chances of retaining the title, and that was easy money. Going against Vettel is an even better priced opportunity.


Five things you might not know about Lewis Williamson

1. Born in Dundee in November 1989, he was eight when he convinced his dad Ian to let him have a try behind the wheel after they'd been to Kent to watch his cousin Andrew Wilson, a Scottish go-karting champion.

2. By then his family had moved to the remote Highland village of Golspie where he still lives. It's an 11-hour trek to compete at most British circuits.

3. He won the 2008 British Grand Prix in the amateur dominated sport of gearbox karting, held at Cadwell Park near Lincoln.

4. The first time he stepped into a Formula Jedi he finished on pole then won the race. This year he missed out on the Formula Renault title by just six points.

5. He's been studying for an engineering apprenticeship with his sponsors Ross Shire Engineering - which means a 100 mile drive to work every day. They still expect him to clock on at eight on a Monday morning after race weekends.


By Ralph Ellis

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When Amir Khan steps into the ring this weekend to face the heavy handed and largely unheralded South American Marcos Maidana, fight fans can be forgiven a twitch of the punting finger as well as a heavy sense of Déjà Vu. We have indeed been here before.

It seems a lifetime ago that Khan was wrecked inside a round by the mysterious Columbian Breidis Prescott, a defeat that eventually led Khan to change trainer, promoter and to an extent, country too. Two years on the Bolton boy has gone from exposed 'would-be' to defending World Champion. So apparently complete has his transformation been that he shares not just a gym with Manny Pacquiao but, according to some, his potential and prospects too. Yet the lingering questions raised by the ghost of Prescott remain; how good is Khan and can he take a punch?

In terms of natural talent, Amir Khan (1.38) has always been loaded but it is only since teaming up with Freddie Roach that there has appeared an authority in his boxing. In spells there are glimpses of that star potential which Roach and Golden Boy promotions talk of yet you wouldn't consider him in the same conversation as Pacquiao, Mayweather or Marquez anytime soon. Khan is definitely progressing but he remains a work in progress.

In May Khan dominated and stopped Paulie Malignaggi, a performance that drew comparisons with similar wins over the New Yorker for both Ricky Hatton and Miguel Cotto previously. Yes Malignaggi is on the wane, yes he is a top level though not elite fighter and yes, he is a non-puncher but it was an impressive performance from Khan nonetheless. His speed remains a choice weapon and nine times out of ten that wins fights. I still think he looks vulnerable when at close quarters, but he is becoming a stronger all-round fighter and to beat Maidana he might need to be.

The Argentine hard man fights with a purpose and intensity which was enough to discourage another (then) Golden Boy 'star' Victor Ortiz when he made his spectacular American debut last summer. Despite going down three times in the first two rounds, Maidana (3.65) was relentless in pursuit of Ortiz and effectively forced him out the fight which was halted at halfway. His knockdown points win over DeMarcus Corley last time confirmed the impression of Maidana; he is ruthless, dangerous but reckless too. In short, if Khan fights to a game-plan and can punch with enough authority, this is his fight to lose.

There is still a prevailing theme regarding Khan that he is 'chinny' and so plenty will punt Maidana on the theory that if he lands once in the fight then he wins. Put it another way, can Khan avoid his heat for 12 rounds? If you hold that thought then the KO/TKO/DQ (4.1) looks the call ahead of the match odds (3.6); only two of Maidana's last 20 opponents have heard the final bell, he really is heavy handed. As much as I think this is Khan's fight to control, I wouldn't be surprised if he was caught and knocked out.

Both men have completed 12 rounds with Andre Kotelnik: Khan completely dominated the Ukrainian to win this WBA belt while Maidana dropped a squeaky close decision to him in Germany. I think Maidana is better than that suggests and you get the feeling he doesn't really respect Khan. He is however aware that the Brit is an immediate cash cow as well as being a significant launch pad to the big league. He usually fights with zest but believe me, he will be pumped close to hyper for this one and that sort of pressure won't be easy to control.

Still, as Ortiz hinted, Maidana can be out-boxed, hit and decked and Khan has the speed and skill set to make that happen. Both Khan and trainer Roach have hinted at a late stoppage (2.14) but I'm not close to being sold on Amir as a finisher. He is a sharp, volume puncher not a banger and while his accumulative pressure ought to have an effect, I don't see it being enough to prevent a decision win (3.45).

This fight reminds me a little of Khan's thrill-a-minute win against Michael Gomez back in 2008. Like Gomez (only bigger), Maidana is an intense pressure fighter but just as Khan picked off Gomez with precision punching, so there will be times when he will hit Maidana as though shying coconuts at the fair. It won't be an altogether easy ride but Khan has the ability to make him look somewhat clownish. And all those that built Maidana up to be some sort of freakish carnival strong man, might just have to acknowledge Amir Khan as the exerciser of ghosts; maybe even the real deal.


By Alex Steedman

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The Betfair Contrarian is in pretty good form at the moment and intends to build on that. Here's why red-hot favourittes Europe need to come to terms with why they won't be winning the Mosconi Cup on home soil...


The Contrarian was left celebrating yet another winner last week as Russia - who he tipped at 3.4 in July - were chosen to host the 2018 World Cup. But while Europe was divided by FIFA's beauty contest, the pool-playing public of England and Holland (and Finland and Germany too) will need to be united from Thursday to Sunday as Europe scrap with USA for the Mosconi Cup - the nine-ball pool version of the Ryder Cup. Europe are 1.7 favourites but the Contrarian doesn't fancy their chances. Here's why...
USA are the holders...

USA were comfortable winners of last year's Mosconi Cup in Las Vegas, seizing a 4-1 advantage on the opening day and never at any point looking in danger of relinquishing the lead. During the 16-year history of the competition, in which USA lead Europe 11-4 when it comes to outright triumphs, there has only ever been one occasion where USA have had an isolated success and failed to retain and that was in 1995 when, having won the inaugural tournament the previous year, they were edged out by the narrowest margin ever recorded - Europe won it 16-15.


...and have kept that team together

Whereas Europe's 2010 team features a debutant - Blackpool-born Paul Boyes - and a player whose only previous appearance came in last year's defeat in Las Vegas - Darren Appleton, who lost all four of his matches - all five USA representatives have been victorious before. Four of the players (Johnny Archer, Corey Deuel, Shane Van Boening and Dennis Hatch) were champions 12 months ago, while arguably the weakest link of that side, Oscar Dominguez, has been replaced by the current Billiard Congress of America-ranked number one Rodney Morris, a veteran of six tournaments.


Home advantage counts for little

Since the decision to start alternating the hosting of the Mosconi Cup in 2003 (before then it was always held in England), Europe have taken the trophy as often on American soil as they have on European, proving that if there is any advantage to playing in front of a crowd primarily formed of compatriots, it's a very minimal one. Europe's one win as hosts in that period came in Malta in 2008, and even then it's difficult to attribute that success to location as the national hero Tony Drago - born in Valletta - lost all three of the matches that he was involved in.


The York Hall is far from a lucky venue for Europe

Much has been made in the build up about how the Mosconi Cup is returning to its spiritual home, the York Hall in Bethnal Green, after an eight-year absence. But while Europe's players are excited about competing at the venue, famed primarily for staging boxing bouts, it's hardly been the arena of many memorable European victories. Of the six times the Cup has been contested in the East End before, USA took it home with them on five occasions, with the last of Europe's defeats there being the most emphatic of all - a 12-1 thrashing in 2001. To put into context just how shocking a loss that was, never before or since has either team ever failed to score fewer than five points.


USA are experts at winning

Hawaiian player Rodney Morris isn't short of confidence on his first visit to the York Hall and believes that the American psyche presents them with a huge advantage: "One thing to remember is this. For many years, people from different countries have come to the US to learn how to win. Americans don't live in other countries to learn how to win. It's just an edge we have - an extra killer instinct if you will. We Americans have the heart advantage, period. Europeans have the titles. It's the same as it is every year. The Europeans are the favourites until we get in there and show our heart. It's simple, there's no secret there, it's all about heart, heart, heart!"


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This weekend's Box Office on Sky is promoter Frank Warren's follow up to September's outstanding Magnificent 7 event and with two international, World Title bouts featuring Amir Khan and Wladimir Klitschko added to the roster, it promises to be a must see for fight fans.

On show are prospective world champions Nathan Cleverly, Matthew Macklin, Kell Brook and Frankie Gavin but pick of the home scraps has to be the much anticipated match for the British super-middleweight title between James DeGale and Paul Smith. It's remiss of me perhaps to mention Smith last as he is the current champion but such has been DeGale's exposure since he won 2008 Olympic Gold that the Londoner has fast-tracked his way to this opportunity on the back of eight straight wins. But is he ready?

It is only 22 months since 'Chunky' turned pro and yet it seems a long, long time ago that he was being booed by the Birmingham crowd on that difficult debut night. DeGale 1.17 has very quickly morphed into a flashy, good-to-watch boxer and the stoppages, six of them in eight, have followed. You wouldn't describe him as a puncher, stoppages tend to come at this stage of a career (particularly for a talented former amateur) and DeGale still has the tendency to throw wide and sometimes slapping punches but he is extremely talented and has that winning commodity; speed. It could be the key to the fight.

Paul Smith has only lost once in 30 fights and the Liverpuddlian has put together a solid if unspectacular resume. 'Smigga' 3.45 has looked rugged and tough in winning both recent city-derby showdowns at the Echo arena against Tony's Quigley and Dodson. The latter, his first defence of the British Title was a terrific effort given he suffered horrible cuts in the opening rounds but came from behind to win. If it becomes a proper battle keep your eye on the in-running market because Smith has the stuff to emerge on top again.

But the pattern of the fight and in turn the result of it really depends on DeGale. If he can check his ego and use his skill and speed then he ought to be able to box his way to a decision win. I do wonder if DeGale is as confident as he portrays or as tough as he thinks but he deserves to be moved quickly and this fight may reveal more about him.

Like DeGale, Dereck Chisora has not looked short on confidence as he has risen rapidly through the ranks but having won titles at British & Commonwealth level, Chisora steps out of the baby pool to challenge IBF/WBO/IBO Heavyweight World Champion Wladimir Klitschko. Depending on your take he has nothing to lose or is onto a hiding; I think probably a big slice of both.

The task at hand for Chisora 10.5 is quite literally huge: not only is there a gulf in talent as well as experience but the North Londoner will give up around five inches in height and seven inches in reach. There is no doubt that his win against Sam Sexton in September proved that Chisora is improving but that is European form at best and I'm struggling to see a way in for him here. The truth is this fight is all about Klitschko and how he wins.

As always in a Wladimir Klitschko fight, you are essentially betting on how positively he will approach it and when he decides to risk throwing that big right hand. He ought to be a fair bet to win by KO 1.33 given he has ended each of his last five fights that way and Chisora as well as being out of his depth, also happens to look hittable. But things are never that clear cut with Klitschko. He took 10 rounds to despatch Samuel Peter last time despite thumping that slow coach at will and previously only a last minute stoppage spared his blushes against Eddie Chambers who practically invited an early bath. It is now three-and-a-half years since Klitschko stopped an opponent before half way, so tread carefully.

Many will fancy Klitschko by KO/TKO/DQ 1.33 but I just don't trust him. Now, if Chisora fights as recklessly as he talks - and he has given the signals that he will be aggressive - then Klitschko could look spectacular here. Equally, Chisora could use his speed to buy time. Allied to Klitschko's reticence it may be this fight goes beyond halfway. I wouldn't go mad about it but my strategy would be to back a group of individual rounds for the stoppage and my idea would be to look at rounds 6-10 inclusive which works out at around even money 2.0.


By Alex Steedman

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