Betting.Betfair

I thought the difficult thing about discussing the Ashes would be finding a good bet. I'm already sat happily anticipating a huge profit on backing England to win the series, and after the Adelaide Test it seems the rest of Betfair's punters have got on too, if a tad late, as the price is down to 1.55 with little value left.

It was way back in June that I put my money on. I'd sat down with Sky's David Lloyd to do the Betfair Big Interview, and got carried away with his insistence that supporting Andrew Strauss and co at odds of 4.0 was "a licence to print money".

It looks as if he knew what he was talking about, which is also good news for Victim Support Manchester who should pick up a few bob when Bumble's charity bet pays out. Where he got it most right was to question the strength of Australia's bowling attack, which has been utterly humbled so far.

Quite simply the Aussies are in disarray this morning, with calls for Ricky Ponting to be sacked. There's even the laughable suggestion that Shane Warne might return as skipper. That would actually weaken their bowling even further. I know he still played in last year's edition of the IPL to make a few quid and that his legend might restore some morale to the dressing room. But there's no way he could be fit enough to get through the sort of 25-over spell that is demanded of a Test match spinner. It would be like asking Alan Shearer not only to return to Newcastle as manager but play centre forward too, just because he got a couple of goals in a charity match.

With Xavier Doherty smashed out of sight, and Doug Bollinger looking anything but a potential match-winner, the selectors look like crawling back to Nathan Hauritz and Mitchell Johnson - or taking a punt on 21-year-old leg spinner Steve Smith who was hammered all round the place by Ian Bell when he turned out for an Australia A team last month.

There is just a week for Ponting, assuming he stays in charge, and his four selectors Andrew Hilditch, Greg Chappell, David Boon and Jamie Cox to come up with an answer. And quite simply it's impossible in that time for them to find an attack that could take 20 wickets when in two matches they've managed only 16 - and ten of those were on an adrenaline-fuelled first day in Brisbane.

I'm not saying the Aussies can't win one of the three remaining Tests. And it's unlikely but yes they could even scramble a draw in the other two and level the series. The batting still has strength if Ponting recovers his fighting spirit and Michael Hussey stays in form. But they can't win in Perth. They can't solve so many problems with their bowling that quickly. They can't take 20 wickets against England's line-up that even without Stuart Broad bats so deep down the order.

So here's the great thing - it seems Betfair's punters are still scared of the Australian reputation and history because they are as short as 3.25 to bounce back with an immediate win, and there's more than £1,000 waiting to be laid at 3.3. As Bumble would say, it's a licence to print money.


Five things you might not know about Steve Smith

1.Born June 1989 in Sydney, his full name is Steven Peter Devereux Smith.

2.His mum Gillian is English and as a teenager he came over to play club cricket for Sevenoaks Vine in the Kent cricket league and was offered a contract by Surrey.

3.Dad Peter, who had persuaded him to switch from pace bowling to take up leg spin at the age of 12 because he wasn't going to be tall enough to be a quick, encouraged him to go back Down Under instead.

4.He captained Sydney club Sutherland at the age of 19, and won the Steve Waugh medal as New South Wales player of the year.

5.He averages 43.43 with the bat in first class cricket - nearly as many as his bowling average which is 50.54.


By Ralph Ellis

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